Member Info for mattwales

Jonjo, as of 30/6 Prem had $2.9m of current liabilities which is now under $2m.

Added to this they had $39000 cash at that date.

how likely is it they will fund a placing of say $300000 and turn their just under $2m liabilities into share conversions in the short term?

Prem had its chance when Tungsten and Lithium prices were flying.
Tungsten and Lithium is all over China and why the Chinese opened many of both.

The only Chinese coming to Prem is a food takeaway over to GR as he ponders what to a. buy next b. how can he raise cash and c. can he fund liabilities issuing more shares.

If EIA are right it means OPEC+ adding 2m barrels a day Q1 21 will still be 2m barrels a day short of demand.

EIA included Libya expected production in their analysis.

i personally believe China will add as much supply as they can to refill storage Q4 at low prices. as they'd rather pay $42 now than $50 Feb but all IMHO.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2142495-indias-oil-product-demand-shows-recovery-in-september

diesels down 6% yoy
gasoline up 2% yoy

Despite huge covid 19 cases the 3rd largest importer of oil is normalising demand before they go into 2 festivals that spike oil demand.

This same pattern is also emerging in most of Asia oil demand is starting to hit normal pre covid 19 levels.

USA/Europe obviously lag this but Asia are the ain market and will be the ones pulling down oil supply excess.

In China for example all floating storage at ports has pretty much vanished any why global floating storage was down 80% over Mays figure in August.

Asia will go through 209m barrels of oil excess storage at end of September pretty fast.

EIA estimate that global supplies are drawing down 4.1m barrels per day Q4.

Even if they only come in half of that global supplies will normalise by end of Q4 i.e no more excess.

If EIA are right mid November no more Global oil excess and they'll be eating rapidly into normal storage.

everyone is so focused on oil in USA and they are ignoring the main market Asia which is flying in demand.

The chinese/indians will buy 50m barrels in a week from USA when they struggle to get it elsewhere.

if the EIA report is right 209m global excess and 4.1m barrels per day global drawdown thats 52 days from 30/9 and why chinese etc buying as much as they can while the can at these prices.

noel, just over 200m barrels of oil to clear and EIA expect 4.1m barrels a day clearing off global inventories.

you watch the SP reverse drastically on $500m Uganda cash and oil storage becoming normal (oil prices will shift higher on normal storage).

It wont just be them everyone will be buying oil now cos in 6 months prices will be higher.
China are building extra refining/storage space and everything they stored at port is gone hence the we need cheap oil.
India festival and boom we need oil.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-New-Refineries-Are-Embarking-On-A-Crude-Buying-Spree.html
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Indian-Fuel-Demand-Bounces-Back-Ahead-Of-Festive-Season.html

Asia the main market has recovered and expanding oil demand.

afterburn, shareholders are waiting for $500million cash to come in from the Uganda sale to Total.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4379299-implied-iea-oil-supply-and-demand-balance-suggests-no-excess-inventories-year-end

https://news.sky.com/story/cineworld-lenders-brace-for-restructuring-of-8bn-debt-pile-12090766

Cineworld will survive but very doubtful shareholders will.

from H1 accounts you can build an estimation of gross profits 2nd half.

i figure approx $340m based on savings below and the slight fall in oil revenue (im basing $51 although oil prices could still rise) but this is without the underlift/overlift which could take it to over $400m gross profit.

Anyone else want to try a back of the fag estimation for H2?

added to H1 costs of sales Tullow also experienced Underlift, overlift and oil stock movements of $128.9m.

It means they held back from taking their share of oil proceeds from partners H1 probably due to the low prices.

It is highly doubtful H2 will repeat those oil cost movements.

will be a lot better than H1 due to.

$95m less expense for capital expense/decommissioning in H2 over H1

$59m redundancy/lease expenses in H1 will probably be under half of that H2

H2 operating costs due to those redundancies in H1 and further ones announced H2 will be up to a third lower than H1 as Tullow have shed 50% of their staff this year (33% first half)

Lower finance costs of around $5m due to a voluntarily lower RBL

Tullow, as we know plan to reduce the RBL with their amortization plan.

They have $500m headroom which i suspect Tullow will cut again in January because 2021 will be low capital expenditure by every oil firm talking to Governments and extending their commitments out a year or 2 which we are already seeing.

Tullow have been voluntarily liaising with their banks to lower the RBL exposure and have done so successfully for a year and all through the turbulence of shedding half their staff.

You couldn't ask for better management.

PREM owe $1.495m in trade receivables at 30/6 so the owe that out as of that date.
i presumed electrification costs because thats the only thing spent in that period

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PREM/half-year-report-6ued2b9rahbvosc.html

they also stated they need to raise MREL cash last lot raised at 9.5% suggests thats gonna be another £30m out the door.

its like a ponzi scheme

metro cant keep sustaining the levels of loss on course for half a billion lost in 1 year.

they needed to cost cut they didnt = its game over with boe looking to cut rates further will squeeze margins and income.

acker the only thing i can think off the top of my head for trade receivables is PREM still owe cash for the electrification at RHA.
we know NIEFF didnt pay it all leaving PREM short but $1.5m short???

with just $37k in cash at 30/6 he has to be funding this himself desperately waiting for a SP uplift so he can place.

acker, as of 30/6 $2.9m liabilities.

$700k of that was from regent and riverfort thats gone

11/8 they issued approx $425k in wages for shares.

that still leaves over $1m in trade receivables and the loans from GR.

I'm guessing he will pay trade receivables off in shares and either provide more cash himself or return to the market for another $300k or so to cover short term costs.

acker i have no idea if a ceiling exists but as end of june $2.2m liabilities have to be covered presumably by issuing more shares.

At these prices that's 3.5bn shares to come onto the market at some point with more cash required on top.

robrob the accounts were at 30th June his TR1 was 29th july and why the SP fell from there.

TR1s are issued just for sales/buys in the company they are not used for dilution of shares otherwise we'd have had them all year from James Goozee and GR probably a few others.

i find it interesting we have $1.495m of trade receivables when we're not in production/trading with anyone. they could be wages i guess but even so more dilution.

if circum does ipo, doubtful but any cash will have to go to operations.

Danakali listed on LSE for £75m should provide a similar valuation for Circum given their production staged plan will be lower that previously indicated due to approx $1.5 billion costs of the original plan.

I think everyone's hope was with Stephen Dattels at the time onboard he could have engineered some reverse takeover here but sadly he got out.