Member Info for mattwales

Capital Markets Day - We will get a clear handle on what their strategy is going to be and hopefully an update of where they are on cost cuts and if they have identified anymore cuts.

I feel the clarity of where Tullow is and where they are headed will be a major positive for the SP.

Jan RBL Redetermination - shares held back by covenant issues related to payback of 2022 debt which given the fact Tullow are voluntarily reducing this anyway should be a waived formality.
With OPEC delays we could see $50 brent by then anyway as anyone short Oil will be forced out (which is probably what is happening as we speak).

OPEC+ meeting and confirmation of delays to supply
reversal of European and USA local lockdowns adding up to 0.8m bpd demand
virus rollout

It looks like OPEC are serious in their plans to delay supply while demand for Q1 will seriously pick up due to lockdowns overturning and the start of the virus rollout.

Even now there are stories of tight middle east supply because the Chinese are buying everything which will add to pressure in Q1 2021.

If OPEC+ stick to their stance of delaying supply till virus rollouts prices are likely to recover to $60 sooner than expected.

As soon as virus rollouts happen worldwide we will hit record travel and record car use as people are sick of not being able to live normal lives.

We will have more of a confirmation on Opec+ plans by early December.

However, the main market Asia has recovered (with fewer planes) and why global storage figures for Q3 started to fall rapidly.

I think most of the market is focused on US storage figures but they are still coming down because oil traders are trying to fill the floating storage in China which is now empty.

Even onshore inventories for oil in China are falling because demand for Chinese oil refinery processing hit a record last month (after the previous record set in June).

You have analysts suggesting oil imports will slacken in China Q4 but the evidence is they need to fill their oil storage tanks.

Also Indian, South Korean, Malaysian demand is normalising to pre covid 19 levels and why i believe Asia and China in particular will pick up the USA/European slack in demand for Q4.

Going into Q1 next year if Opec+ delay we will see normal storage but oil demand will still outweigh supply because no one is going to stop the Asian market growing oil demand 3% a year.

This and European lockdowns gradually undoing and there is going to be a shortage of certain types of oil.

We already see this in Urals oil but Q1 will add premium oil prices to many oil types and why price action in oil could boom.

it was at 38p at $42 a barrel. dare i say it the hedge funds are closing shorts all over the stock market and going long.

if OPEC+ delay the scramble will be for the cheap oil remaining.

As of that EIA report global inventories were 209.1m above normal and they expected 4.1m bpd drawdown Q4.

IEA suggested 96.1m bpd Q4. With lockdowns in Europe we're probably 0.5-0.8m bpd off their estimate.
Also Libya pumping out 1m+ barrels a day now but even so Q4 could still remove all excess oil inventories if the earlier IEA report was accurate.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4379299-implied-iea-oil-supply-and-demand-balance-suggests-no-excess-inventories-year-end

canary, oil traders are moving oil from USA/Europe to all the floating storage in China which is now empty after being filled June/July from the March/April buying spree. that could be why Scottish ports were busy loading oil into tankers.

they have also reduced overall costs per barrel from $45 to $40 as per April.
Then at results told us about $120m further cost savings from end of year (approx $5 a barrel).

Lets hope for details of more cost savings on capital markets day but they will be operating at $35 a barrel by end of year based on what we have been advised.

oil shorters will also be exiting shorts directly on the oil exchanges so a double positive for oil shares.

Bloomberg reporting Oil inventories in China are dwindling this after all the floating storage they built up had emptied around August/September.

The new play in town is moving Euro/USA oil to Asian markets but as soon as they fill up floating storage again it'll whittle down to zero in a couple of months again.

Despite lockdowns and Libya production EIA estimate Q4 will drawdown more than 200m barrels of worldwide oil supply.

Even with lockdowns and Jan Opec dumping 2m barrels per day from January Q12021 looks short.

ZULU has real potential and we all have to hope this financial services company are strategic masters of bringing in outside investors.

CIRCUM will also bring in cash but talk of IPO when Potash prices are through the floor is cheap.
Dattels & Co will flood the market with the IPO only when they see price recovery = more cash for them and PREM

oops it cut off ZULU is the only play in town (for now i know we have rare earth minerals at katete) but ZULU EPO day this will fly.

what can he spill acker.

gold samples are overdue

RHA is a messy rust bucket and people believe we're gonna sell it for bucketloads of cash.
Zim Govt havent pumped in more cash into what is supposedly profitable operation when they could press a button transferring cash.

MNH has gone backwards his latest interview at 4-5k tons a month....should have been on track at 20k by end of 2020 according to the expansion.

ZULU i said could take a year around July time and it could......

The only hope for PREM is playing the we have gold bull**** game as a delaying tactic for news on the EPO.
A few mutterings of well we see Gold on the ground and the aim goldbugs will trade the hope till results show nonsense but he'd double the SP.

ZULU

what he needs to do is simple......create more of a buzz around Gold by moving the RHA equipment and sorter out to Mozambique immediately.

Gold bugs on here already it'd be madness if GR did actually did work by organising and setting up a small open mine gold pit.

Since the locals dug down 8ft or so it would appear that surface gold has been found and as ever no one knows why he starts something and never finishes a thing.

With a lack of money in the tin organising that wouldnt cost much and the reward of actually finding Gold is worth the risk of sending RHA redundant equipment and hiring a couple of JCBs.

The nonsense of him showing off 1 large gold nugget with a few other smaller nuggets would be enough to drive the SP a lot higher where he could then place enough funds to have an aerial metalurgical study (circa $100k) and then a 2-3 stage drill program (circa $800k-$1m).

If he doesn't do that we will wait and wait for updates that wont come.

and nothing to show for it.

Directors paid themselves and consultants/employees in shares 11/8 to the extent of £350000.
This was repeated 22/10 where they paid themselves another £310000.
Next dilution by early Jan and every 2 months on from that and there have been no updates because what is there to update.

Gold sampling results take approximately 6 weeks so they are overdue.....we got shown an empty bucket with a bit of water and sludge. people talking about barrick gold it aint PREM is it.

RHA is months overdue from a meeting (last update July)

ZULU I still stick with my Zimbabwe power grab/its falling apart/covid 19....EPOs bottom at the list unless you pay someone and PREM as ever lack money.

MNH no update from them in months. If we got timely monthly reports that would be great but we don't even know if they are still producing due to Namibia being on lockdown for months.

oil demand is slipping with exception of Asia as most of Europe is in some kind of lockdown.

Opec need to state Jan cuts thrown out and possibly roll back cuts.

no update on the merger and no update on creditor debt waivers ending next week will spook a few people out too.

you would have thought in 3 weeks u'd have news on creditor acceptance by now wouldnt you.

Biden wins oil subsidies/tax breaks die, more regulatory oversight.
$10trillion piled into green energy.

markets jitter because of covid 19 too....im wondering what will come first a vaccine or a pandemic naturally dying out.

They dropped all in costs from $40 to $35 a barrel when they shed a third of staff earlier this year.
Then they saved an additional $125m per year (around $5 a barrel) shedding more staff at results time.

Sure they will have H2 redundancy costs but are in a much better place than earlier this year and why banks are supporting them through the RBL.

Compare this to Premier Oil who sat and did nothing.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-vaccine-oxford-jab-provides-strong-immune-response-analysis-finds/ar-BB1akHax?ocid=msedgntp

leaving shareholders with nothing and why i dont see any move up till the merger has been approved by the majority of creditors. Get that news and it'll start moving up as shorts close.

just imagine the panic closing shorts when the $500m comes in.