Member Info for mattwales

yes oil companies/travel/transport/bank stocks to outperform.....go back to normality pre covid.

vaccines even.

i'm surprised Opec didnt just do a 1 month delay because sometime in february they will need the 2m barrels as europe etc reverses lockdown and people start flying.

There is bound to be disagreement because as soon as viruses rollout demand for oil will start to lift.

Those viruses start rolling out within 10 days UK/USA to health workers then everyone else.
Europe by end of month.

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/1616/0675/0100/Tullow_Oil_plc_-_2020_Capital_Markets_Day_-_FINAL.pdf

at least 49 drills in ghana over 40 in gabon as soon as oil is at $60 they can accelerate it.

https://www.tullowoil.com/media/press-releases/tullow-oil-plc-2020-capital-markets-day/

multi well drilling program Ghana starting from 2nd quarter 2021.

its a fact all of them cant repeat 2020 low prices of oil.

its why even with disagreement they didnt walk away dump oil.

the debts the likes of iraq, kuwait etc built up this year are enough to keep them all pretty much in line.

they all need $60-$70 brent to balance budgets.

with their hedges the H1 oil sale price figures come out at average of $50.8.

H2 oil prices are higher their overall operating costs have fallen to around $35.

they'll be raking in cash.

return to normality coming soon USA using a whole bucketload of retail chains etc to dish out viruses.

just think of all the oil used for mass population 2 jab vaccine and all the transportation worldwide because it all helps fuel oil demand before the real jump in demand when people start travelling.

still to come regulatory approvals to dose everyone in the next week.

usa/uk plan to rollout jabs from mid dec

all this will boost sentiment.

trouble is GR dithers from one disaster to the next plays a waiting game and it ends up worse.

he needs to proactively get another £2m in placing funds and get moving with RHA/MNH and the gold then he has newsflow all through 2021.

Without it PREM will drift.

The consolidation more likely to be 100:1

They need money for RHA industry reports for offtaker (if there really is one), MNH further investment to expand it and Gold.

To get all 3 moving theyd need circa $100k RHA/$1m MNH/$1m Gold (survey/2 drills) plus their wages/consultants fees etc

They need to pay everyone around Jan time that's a share dilution I presume.

I was one of those who had high hopes for MNH the reality has been exceptionally bad....on that front they are producing less than before PREM came along and invested $1m into it's expansion.

The reality is they need to throw another $1m or so in to MNH to overcome all the production bottlenecks.

He is also looking at other assets when his primary focus should be on the assets PREM have but at least he hasn't bought anymore.

I read with his amusement him trying to focus away from Zimbabwe but the reality is who on earth would buy RHA he has allowed it to turn into a rust bucket.

ZULU has potential but with a new size 100 times the size the amount needed to fund it to DFS would be colossal and well beyond PREMs capability. I really see this silly man eventually dumping it for a small stake like he did with Circum.

thats quicker than expected

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/army-arrive-at-football-stadium-to-set-up-britain-s-first-mass-coronavirus-vaccine-site/ar-BB1buS2r?ocid=msedgntp

look in the Half Year Results to see this $128.9m added to cost of sales....next results it'll be negative not positive.

at the last results they threw the kitchen sink in with write offs/restructuring costs even added $128.9m to cost of sales due to Underlift, overlift and oil stock movements.

Underlift, overlift and oil stock movements meaning that they didnt take $128.9m owed to them by their oil partners.

The next results will see Underlift, overlift and oil stock movements going the other way i.e cost of sales massively down.

They could have $100m of free cash coming in from their portion they didnt take first half of 2020.

you do realise they've had covenant waivers at every RBL redetermination this year from lenders?

they didnt pull the plug at brent sub $30 how likely are they at Brent $45+

I feel the whole presentation was ultra Conservative due to still as yet unknowns due to covid.

The reality is 2020 has been a horrendous year due to lockdowns for most people and as soon as people are vaccinated jobs will recover and all the retirees will be looking at holidays followed by families.

The point i was making earlier was Tullow management would have produced this presentation a few weeks back when oil was circa $40.

Brent is now $48, Q1 we could see $55 due to a shortage of oil inventories.

At those prices surely Tullow will be upping production to meet 2020 levels. They mentioned it was price dependent.

I feel it'll already be priced in. However confirmation and the whole investment houses will be thinking Q1 short oil, buy now dump Q1 taking prices up.

im just summasing here but Tullow would have spent a few weeks or so getting their presentation together.

That would have been done with Brent circa $40.

A couple of months with Brent at these prices and they will surely look to maintain/increase production....after all they pencilled in $45 average for 2021.

If OPEC+ delay for 3 months the market is short oil Q1. Lockdowns unwinding/vaccine rollouts will exacerbate it.

In the middle east supplies are already tight as China is restocking everything they bought back in March/April.

OPEC+ countries are unable to repeat 2020 due to budgets circa $70.

If anything they will under supply the market till prices normalise.

African car use expected to go from 100k new vehicles per year to over 2m by 2030.

Used car market rocketing.

Head over to Asia/Latin and South America you have a similar story.