Member Info for mattwales

lets hope it pushes on upwards through today as it shrugs off US product builds.

Most are stating end of month for this but the last RBL Redetermination was 7th October, one previous 3rd April.

Lets all hope it is this week as it should pass with ease especially with Brent post $53.

absolutely slift, the market wasn't expecting a Saudi unilateral cut of 1m barrels a day Feb and March.

This with Russia backing down on 500k increase and agreeing to russian/kazakhstan 75k barrel a day increase seriously adds to oil price support.

The market was expecting a 500k a day increase Feb, its got a 925k a day cut.

usa unemployment figures pretty much tell you everything from 15% earlier in the year to just 6.7% now.

usa is resisting lockdown where they can and have adapted better than uk/europe.

tony, USA will have been importing high amounts of oil from thanksgiving - christmas.

demand didnt spike as expected but its not to say USA demand is slumping either.

same with europe at last count demand had slumped just 900k barrels a day, earlier this year it was 4m barrels a day.

everyone is resisting lockdown where they can.

Thats not quite right Tony.

USA demand is still crawling up albeit slower than expected for this time of year, the excess stocks recently added to inventories are imports of oil for the Thanksgiving- Christmas period.
Demand for Thanksgiving-Christmas hasn't spiked as expected.

European demand has fallen but nowhere near earlier this year and it wont because people are breaching lockdowns to visit friends/family etc. Could European demand worsen yes if UK are banned from flying to Europe.

Asia is flying...
demand for oil in China 2020 will be up over 13% (3 quarters up around 13.7% over 2019).
The Chinese govt upping oil quotas 20% for 2021 for non state oil firms would suggest Chinese oil demand will be similar to this years increase in demand.

Indian refining capacity at 100% November (despite lockdowns) would suggest full recovery and a need to increase refining capacity like the Chinese are doing. India post lockdown will grow fuel demand in excess of 10%.

China alone will need 1m extra barrels per day of supply by close of 2021 due to demand.

OPEC adding 500k barrels a day January purely because middle east supply is tight with Chinese/Indians buying it and why Saudis etc upped their January prices almost $1.

Tullow multi drill Ghana program set for Q2 2021 would suggest they are looking to increase production.

ammu, based on their $7bn over 10 year projection i myself based this at costs of $35 and 78k barrels i got $5.4bn suggesting Tullow will expand production but below were my free cash predictions per year

2021 10 78000 284700000
2022 20 78000 569400000
2023 20 78000 569400000
2024 20 78000 569400000
2025 20 78000 569400000
2026 20 78000 569400000
2027 20 78000 569400000
2028 20 78000 569400000
2029 20 78000 569400000
2030 20 78000 569400000

5409300000

bulent its an AFRICAN oil company. bulent go take your meds for your wild portrayal of the UK becoming a wasteland.

bulent go read the capital markes presentation.

$7bn of positive cashflow over 10 years with 2021 at $45 and 2022-2030 prices at $55.

conservative figures given oil is at $50.

bulent your crazy kiddo tullow costs are $35 a barrel they're making heaps of profit

manufactured drop at 8am would have taken out all the stop losses own to 27p.

marketmakers hoover up a lot of shares they wouldnt have got hold of as there were low sales.

of the 7.7m barrels a day OPEC+ still have to release to normalise the market China will take 1m barrels a day or so their quota increase for non state firms.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/china-raises-2021-non-state-crude-oil-import-quotas-by-20/#:~:text=China%2C%20the%20world%27s%20top%20crude,commerce%20ministry%20said%20on%20Monday.

In that text China increased their oil imports 12.7% for the first 9 months of 2020.

2021 to continue at full speed in Asia as per.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Middle-East-Oil-Prices-Rise-As-Asian-Demand-Recovers.html

yes but OPEC+ have limited supply and the oversupply has fallen 100s of millions of barrels.

China another 20% increase in oil quotas 2021 with refining going up 1m+ barrels of oil per day 2021-2024.
China has no way developed their infrastructure yet airports to expand by 215 by 2035 to hit 450 etc.

India hit max refining November behind China on infrastructure.

Asia is leading the way.

what are MMs doing waiting for all their m8s to load up haha its a joke

successful drilling leading to more production will smash this north.

Tullow want $7bn of positive cashflow...on their figures of $45 2021 and $55 2022-2030 that equates to just $5.2bn suggesting production will rocket on average 34% 2021-2030.

With higher Oil prices i.e $60 and above Tullow are more likely to expand production faster.

China is going from 235 to 450 airports by 2030.

Its why Chinese refining capacity is rocketing and why Chinese non Govt quotas for import of oil went up 20% for 2021.

they need oil cos of this forget EV China still to grow transportation massively across China

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3074291/china-forges-ahead-airport-construction-binge-despite-signs

its significant news the worlds top oil importer ups quotas 20%.

no one seems to realise Chinese are still developing Central/Western China on the way through a silk road.

if China are telling everyone they want to dominate Asian oil in refining etc they will be upping quotas 20% for the next few years.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/china-raises-2021-non-state-crude-oil-import-quotas-by-20/#:~:text=China%2C%20the%20world%27s%20top%20crude,commerce%20ministry%20said%20on%20Monday.

https://www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2020/10/china-to-dominate-asia-and-oceania-s-refinery-capacity-growth-by-2024#:~:text=China%20is%20expected%20to%20lead,leading%20data%20and%20analytics%20company.

Saudis/UAE up their Jan prices due to Asian recovery

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Middle-East-Oil-Prices-Rise-As-Asian-Demand-Recovers.html