Member Info for MattTheBrave

Thanks Dave. Can't help noticing that Edison's SOTP valuation is $2.7bn or around $23 for the ADS - We've just gone through $30!!

Not had a 20 bagger yet, but live in hope. Had a few 10 baggers - HCM is one (bought in 2011). I mentioned it earlier this year on this Board, but got no takers !!;-)) Could still be a 20 bagger for if it gets to £70. Another one (rather fortunately) is the stock of the Company I work for which started a share incentive scheme in 2005, and has just gone through 10x the price at that time. Have sold shares along the way, but still my largest holding by far. Not great diversification I guess!! Are we due a competition update soon?

HITS spot on again. Basically these people have lost a ton of money, and will now look everywhere for someone to blame. The reason they get so angry at unbiased posters like me is that secretly, they're afraid that I'm right, and the old defensive reflex kicks in. One could almost pity them if it wasn't for their relentless and unpleasant diatribes on this Board, which makes me feel that, frankly they deserve all they get. Does that make me a bad person.....?

GCC - Well it's clearly not the intellectual level of debate from the likes of you, is it? I'll, answer your question when you answer the one I've been asking you for the past 2 weeks. That's only fair....

You should be thanking me. If you only had holders posting, you would, by definition, only get positive views. Any rational investor should listen to a whole spectrum of views both positive and negative as they manage their portfolio exposures. It also so happens that I know the company pretty well having been a holder, and hence my view is actually informed, as well as balanced, and up to now, rather accurate I'd say. I've justified my view on the stock below. Can you justify why the price above 100p is justified? Answer the pharma comment as well while you're at it please (did you look at HCM...?). Believe it or not, whilst I don't get everything right, I do so more often than I'm wrong. Frankly, I know what I'm doing when I invest in equities. Why didn't you try and prove that you do to?

Brad - I don't write in an angry fashion because I'm a mature grown up who prefers to debate rather than abuse. Why don't you try it? if you have any more 'criticisms' which are actually compliments, please do post them (and BTW, we all know you are reading my posts, even if you (just like WO) are pretending to filter them). Honestly, you lot do make me laugh! (Very astute post below from HITS BTW)

Hi Maru - I certainly have sympathy with your view, and have taken profits before, fortunately for me though, have then reinvested again lower down. Some posters here will quite justifiably make the case that the long-term fundamentals are great (and they are) and timing the market is 'tricky' (which it is). At the end of the day, it comes down to just how large a position you are comfortable with, and can you live with the opportunity cost of missing out on the next run up. When I last sold, I had already made my peace with the potential of the stock to keep going up, but was very happy to buy I back lower down. Personally, I'm staying in up till £50 here, and might take some profits (absent any good news), but will still keep a decent position. 2 regular posters here, Davy and miti are looking more at 3 figures I think, but I'm sure they'll post their thoughts. Good luck!

Excellent, WO back for another pasting!!! So, few things to mention here: I still have an opinion - even better than that, turns out my opinion, unlike yours, actually has some predictive value . My degree was actually in mathematical economics - First class honours as well, thanks for asking. Thanks for mentioning the pharmaceutical issue again - can you please clarify what you mean by that (isi it to do with the 'Zeneca comment you still haven't addressed - lol.? (Just to give you a helping hand my largest pharma position is in HCM - check out the Board (where I've posted for many years) and the stock price history. I've done rather well for a man who doesn't understand the industry wouldn't you say....? I look forward to your next post teeing me up beautifully again....;-))

...through $30 (or £45.30 in real money!!!). £ price still a bit behind the news here!

....£20 price target not a million miles away from here now!

Yep - I've decided to wait till £50 before taking some profits...;-))

Indeed - £ price should now be £43.50 based on this!! Unlike you Davey, I won't be buying any more of this here - already a large enough position for me!!

Hi Miti- thought you'd be around somewhere!! Good point regarding Tagrisso - fingers crossed!

14%?? Now you're just making numbers up LOL. As noted about 20 times already on this Board, my posting history on about 30 or more stocks (which is publicly available) makes it clear that I am a PI GCC. Putting your fingers in your ears and simply repeating the same thing over and over again does not make it true you dimwit. Still waiting for you to post your investment thesis (I realise you probably don't actually have one though :-( )

Ah yes, the president of the brain squad speaks! ;-) Also, you might want to wait to see what the price is by the end of the day before you start your ridiculous crowing...FYI, last live price tick was 7.99p, up a massive 1%!!

Perhaps worth adding this as well - Unlike SS, I am not predicting with 100% certainty that this will go bust - nobody can. However, my current belief is that there is still a very significant chance that the debt mountain will require either a huge d4e which will dilute away the vast majority of shareholder value, or that the shareholders will allow the Company to go into administration and then sell the assets to the highest bidder to recoup as much as they can. If of course the Company does manage to achieve stupendous growth to the extent that EBIT surpassed interest payments, then clearly, the stock looks amazing value. For me though, that just looks increasingly unlikely (but where's there's life, there's hope). My issue on this Board, is that this type of balanced, critical thinking just leads to abuse from people who actually have nothing of substance to offer themselves (not so much you Tyche to be fair, or even whitey (whatever happened to him?) but WO and GCC firmly in this camp IMV)

I'm using my experience of investing in capital intensive industries over 3 years, and understand models which require a significant capital outlay initially ( which has to be funded from equity and debt) and involving a period of cash burn, followed by revenue ramp up phase, which if suitably strong and sustained results in free cash flow generation, ultimately paying down debt (as well as servicing interest costs) and generating returns for shareholders. The 'build it' and they will come model has been seen time and time again across a range of technology and industrial sectors. The key here is whether the growth in revenues and free cash flow are ramped up quickly enough to begin paying down the debt principal before the cash burns away leading to either more indebtedness, or dilution through a D4E swap. It became clear to me 2 years ago that AVN was losing that battle and I said so at the time and sold. I have never considered or represented myself as an expert in the satellite industry specifically, and frankly, nor did I need to be to avoid the worst falls here. Consider this - there's been plenty of self-labeled industry experts here (you, GCC, WO, Whitedawn etc etc) and how many of you have either correctly predicted the share price, or actually made any money. Got it now...?

Hey tyche - So proper critical thinking based on an understanding of commercial business models has 'got a fan club'. Quelle surprise !! ;-)) For a man who bangs on about others arguing, you do go out of your way to post argumentative entries like below. Is it a 'if you can't beat them, then join them' kind of thing..? :-0)

Closed at $28 - £42 equivalent on the UK quote based on today's exchange rates.

What's the revenue from the Australian sale? Would seem to be a fairly important pice of info for any sale announcement, but I can't see it...??