Plausible scenario...29 Nov 2023 09:31
So heres a plausible scenario...
First I'm not alone on here in believing that the two major factors in the depression of the share price over the last 17 months have been:
Darryl's astonishing incompetence in trying to persuade the Board to embark on a failed cashbox raise...its failure and the market backlash that followed when SOLG was perceived to be desperate for cash.
The forced liquidation by Berry Street when the SP had established a solid base between 14 and 15.
But a third important factor has been the state of the global economy, especially including high inflation, and the continuing depression of metals prices, the mining sector and especially gold, copper and Junior Miners.
At a time when the SP had already been weakened by the above, this was a perfect storm to batter the SP.
Indeed if you compare the copper price and gold price charts since April, you will see a close correlation until Berry Street hammered the SP just as the latter were showing signs of turning up...
So we've missed the effect of the sharply better metals prices...so far...
And don't you think that Sangha will have advise the Board from April onwards that it was entirely the wrong time to be seeking a sale and that, as Nick has forecast for years, eventually the impending massive copper shortages would impose themselves on metals prices.
So I now believe we are approaching a positive perfect storm...
Scott has used the time to revisit the PFS to produce a 'bankable' one that is far more bankable and attractive to a range of bidders, with cheaper and quicker construction, getting ore mined and positive cashflows sooner, by virtue of an angled shaft into the core of the richest ores (i.e. similar to traditional coal mining), creating the cash flow that will pay for the block cave mine that can then commence construction.
It may well be that Sangha has had informal approaches asking what sort of orice the Board would consider for a sale, because no bidder wants to look stupid by being the first to make a bid that is rejected out of hand.
And based on Nick's previous views on "Asset Value not Market Value" prospectors may have been told "you're not in the ballpark under £1..."
And of course that would ward off interest for the time being until the Board's chosen moment, which would be once PFS3 is produced, together with any remaining required permits.
Sangha is a consummate Corporate Finance professional, embedded within world's mining finance centre, i.e. Canada.
You might say Wall Street, but they are preoccupied withe the "21' high tech companies.
And he would have known at the outset that Cascabel was unfinanceable for a company of Solgold's size without massive dilution.
He would also have the Mining industry connections to know when metals markets and Junior Miners would catch fire.
So PFS3 will arrive at the optimum time in terms of rising markets and savvy bidders may not wait to fire the starting gun