Member Info for Marunam2

No take out till FID is confirmed and by then the sp could be anything with a positive OM result which would be the award given in full.

CJ1986,

Please show / state the "Huge" gaps , they are eluding me .

Thanks

Personally I hope it stays here today42-43 p , a small retrace tomorrow and then through 42p once and for all.

The Head and shoulders pointed out this morning is looking good.

Dream scenario would be that plays out and then OM news drops after that .

Volume required though.

The longer the decision takes the better, at least till we clear the 42p resistance .

A rough Head and shoulders pattern ???, if so then 46p is 1st TP.

Hi LLT,

IMHO, If RKH don't get taken out then, I don't see RKH messing around with funding till year 2 AFTER 1st oil. Getting to 1st oil in a smooth manner is key.

The funders that Navitas bring in will no doubt want some surety that they will be rewarded for their risk, in the greater scheme of things the market Navitas tap for funding will be top tier now. Their entry to TASE 100 opens new doors. Funders themselves will see that Navitas deliver ,if all goes well at Shenandoah, then that money follows money .

Having said that, a partner joining on very good terms changes the funding picture, I think that will happen .

I'm also not fixated on RKH keeping 35%, that message is for potential partners letting them know as Navitas has done, that it will have to be on very good terms to join a fid ready project.

Reducing risk is key and Navitas will have to make a decision on this, I believe they will reduce it by taking on a partner. The overall FI pot is so big that they will attract suitable suitors, imo most likely a company they know well as they want to be the operator past Sealion phase.

As to cost for the next phase for Sealion, GT has said it will be funded from Sealion phase 1 and of course Shenandoah revenues. Phase 1 and 2 will last many years, 85% of production revenue to pay off the loan is a significant Revenue amount over 2 years.

It will take a fair amount of time to drill for phase 2, while phase 1 is producing , 11 well's to drill at 30+ days per well is nearly 3 years.

Sorry, Rambling now .

OM > Partner > FID > Happy days > 5 years down the line > student load paid off. .

I did opine a few months ago this was a real possibility as Navitas's M/C was trending that way .

Have joined the Tase 100 club , access to the funding market moves up a considerable notch.

Required funding is not an issue, imo

When, not if , FIG informs Navitas that the tax regime will be fair, transparent and stable going forward, that again will be a significant milestone, but likely we don't hear about it.

A positive result on OM will also be a significant milestone for RKH and Navitas for accessing top tier funding . It is not just the monetary value it is the stability it will provide going forward. It is not priced in imo.

Financially Stable partners provide "comfort" for lenders, RKH is as good as debt free till 1st oil . No repayments on any loan , also no outstanding commitments once the Italian assets are disposed of .

SP has had the required breather , may even swoop lower to 32.8p region, BUT the trend is up.

GLA

Looks like a corrective move , augurs well for when news comes, gap +50% filled on weekly.

Oiluser,

Some very good points, the shale producers have learnt their lesson from the last "drill baby drill" era when they flooded the market through over production while disregarding falling profits and high costs. A good few companies went down and there ended up being consolidation and selling of companies for peanuts.

Their shareholders and lenders made it clear that cannot happen again, they exhausted the top tier fields while making very little profit because of the low oil price, which then forced them to keep drilling even more to just stay afloat.

Last thing I want or need for Sealion is an oil war dragging the oil price down at this crucial time.

Sorry, 271m euro's .

Re OM award at eurobor 4% I make it Euro 281m , with the new year starting on 29th January.

Is this correct ??

From the RNS :

Successful arbitration award

-- Compensation of EUR 190mm

-- Plus interest at EURIBOR + 4%, compounded annually from 29 January 2016 until time of payment

Ralph, Was it to Ireaeli music or the 13% you can't mention ?? . Asking for my non white friends.

Perhaps a bit of clarity on the tranche 2 payment.

If Italy LOSE the case , it does not matter to RKH if they decide not to pay up , RKH receive the 65m from the entity that's taken over OM.

He thinks FID will be in 2026 ?

Unless there is a significant reason, e.g production delayed for months on Shenandoah , then Navitas's integrity / project management ability is then on the line. Not sure how funders, oil traders, long lead suppliers, fpso owners will react as that's a years delay . Cost inflation will also come into it.

$200m raise required . hmmn ??

Not meant to be personnel, provides food for thought and kudo's for putting it out there .

Worth bearing in mind that since Shanendoah FID , Navitas have gone up 500% !!!, and it's not in production yet.

This on the back of reduced profits as well.

Oil >>>>>>> Oil traders ?

Gas /LNG ? >>>>>>> Oil traders ?

Oil produced first , LNG produced at the depletion of oil ? .

LNG is costly to produce , but also costly to buyers.

There is a reason that it's mentioned in the latest NSAI update of 2c reserves, Certified by them as well.........

Blast, I will now have to seriously reconsider not buying anymore, a solid OM award and I will add, NFA.

GLA

Was not paying attention and missed this 2.1TCF 2C certified gas .

I note that the 22nd January 2024 from Rockhopper has no mention of certified gas reserves .

Yet the 25th November 2024 update of reserves includes a certified 2c reserve of 2.1 TCF .

"According to the October 2024 NSAI Independent Report, the certified gross 2C recoverable oil resources in the overall NFB have increased from 791 MMbbls to 917 MMbbls. In addition, 2.1 TCF of 2C recoverable gas resources have been certified by NSAI. This represents an increase in oil resources of 16% in the overall NFB portfolio compared to the previous certified 2C resource, as published in January 2024."

It does state "in addition "

2.1 TCF is a lot of BOE.

Not going to be easy to properly value till a partner enter's, even then , but it is certainly undervalued as we stand .

Paul,

I also add factors that are not calculable, the sentiment effect of an OM award "if whole " on those not fully invested or not at all. The fear of missing out will come when the media reports start flowing regularly ,the herd mentality can be powerful once stated .

New II's starting to join the party ,investment supported by the cash on hand from OM and RKH being able to finance their portion themselves and time decreasing towards Shenandoah starting production.

A partner joining BEFORE FID would be a significant driver of the sp and sentiment.

Some here have said they will sell on the fid announcement. Isn't that the time the II's enter more forcefully as the risk is greatly reduced ?. As retail we have taken all the risk till now.

A rare scenario is unfolding imo . Over a 400% rise since the fund raising and yet nothing's really changed , but no significant selling and indeed as we stand no indication of II's holdings increasing or decreasing.

Will come a time soon where it will cost to drag the sp too far down, buyers may step in. I'm not even thinking of trading it now, not when I paid money and I took the chances , now we have a new timeline and people in the know about Sealion will be telling people they know.

Shell, BP to name 2 have stated that increasing oil and gas production is back in focus for them !!, there will a trickle down effect of sentiment on these views.

Wonder how the not so poor bloke who sold those millions of shares feels ??

NB: So many larger sized delayed trades today, 1st sign of II's maybe ?

GLA

+ 50p on good OM news.

Fair play to you CJ1986 .

We all have stories like this .

I remember I could have sold and bought a house , had to settle for an extension when it went down from £5 to £2 .

This time round I have made enough for an extension but might be able to buy a new house, fingers crossed.

So many Uni' students to thank if I do .

Hopefully that Israeli money will start filtering over here , Navitas holders have made significant gains already , though there is scope for greater returns here short term and long term relative to size.