Member Info for Marunam2

Fair play to you CJ1986 .

We all have stories like this .

I remember I could have sold and bought a house , had to settle for an extension when it went down from £5 to £2 .

This time round I have made enough for an extension but might be able to buy a new house, fingers crossed.

So many Uni' students to thank if I do .

Hopefully that Israeli money will start filtering over here , Navitas holders have made significant gains already , though there is scope for greater returns here short term and long term relative to size.

Begs the question why Navitas put a picture of a specific FPSO in company document's ??, if you are not sure about the vessel being available, a lot of work and negotiations goes in to get to that stage when a MOU? LOI or whatever the term is signed.

Not to say that in it self is 100% secured, but you surely go by where you stand in the process at that given time , not the kind of mistake Navitas make.

Re the possible partner , I think Tadmor from a position of strength is signalling to the industry that they are open to offers if they are too good to refuse. Navitas have carried the water and most likely for me will announce a partner at or near FID. As a RKH holder an earlier announcement well before fid would give a very nice uplift and really underpin the project going ahead in addition to changing the funding requirements for Navitas.

Navitas will naturally hold out for one who brings , money, nous and muscle as this will all go on for 2 decades at least that's the carrot for the partner, long term security of income in one of the safer parts of the oil world.

The only concern ,a small one , is how up to speed FIG is . They must pull it altogether with this extra time they have to Q2 and I believe they will.

Fingers crossed for a really good OM award ,Italy paying up in full is the wish .

Strong buy .

GLA

Possible Shenandoah production could start in April ? .

One and a half months to two months for everything to be tied up to the SFP enough ?

April - May start of production, still therefore in Q2.

Maybe even an OM award by then , I live in hope it does.

1.50+ for take out of RKH, higher if Italy coughs up in full.

GLA

What will Murphy underpin ?

Gap up to 34. Filled fvg to 28 , will resume up if volume continues , may correct or sideways for a time

This drive up seems to be mainly PI driven. II's tend to come in on news, they have no worries if the price has moved up or down, long as their investment criteria are met. If they are not, they sell into the rise and vice versa.

IMO PI's have to take take a "chance" via their own informed criteria. This is where we can enter way ahead of any

" material news". Also I bear in mind that I am taking a greater risk but face greater reward's or losses.

e.g The II's ran up the sp to 20p on initial OM award, what they knew was that there was still a possibility of annulment and how long that might take. They then ran down the sp to 7-9 region . We then had the fund raise and on the back of their investment in the offer / rights they settled at 12-15 range, they were in control then .

Navitas's ability to raise money , advance the project to FID ready , get FIG on board and shut out the political noise , also setting FIG the task of guaranteeing that any future tax revenues are fair and not penal like the windfall tax, this attracts every type of retail buyer and new II's looking to get a toehold in RKH. PI's not selling is driving the sp, because PI's going from this chatroom recognise that RKH is at this level on the back of new investors paying more to enter and they pay more because they expect significant gains going forward.

GLA

OM is going to drive sp up significantly, win or lose, 31m guaranteed.

Nice when a plan comes together, especially for a UK share , even more so with Oil and Gas explorers.

Morning all, Bigred7.,

Just got back from a new Xmas year cruise , would highly recommend it.... especially for those holding significant numbers of RKH shares.

Having read the Zues note posted by the Norseman, it really is a great summary of the progress made , but importantly I agree with forecast of the significant upside to come.

From memory ,Pre Sealion discovery , RKH was 38p !! , this was on a wing and a prayer of hitting oily gold with only 1 drill, bless Dave Bodecott skills for that.

So , the upside is strong as we stand.

IMHO:

OM- should this come through whole and no amendments then minimum we go to is 45p , this is dependent on when it comes through, is it before we hit 38p or after.

We should expect some pullback to cover (large) increases and fill any Fair Value Gaps.

So for me , upside short term : 37.5p, 38.8, 46.5p to 49.6.

Downside: 27.8, 26.3, 24.6, 23p , 21.9.

Momentum is upside obviously, PI's are not selling in volume and there is currently no bad news to drop it sufficiently to fill any large orders, hence the MM's have to raise the sp to attract sellers. I expect some shaking to see if they can loosen some holders from their positions. traders are also going to play a part as well as news outflow.

So the bottom line is unless you are trading, want to take some profits or de risk a large holding from very significant gains then hold and forget as has been the case for a few years with RKH.

Volume is getting better and these rises have some strength . With OM result still not out , it is difficult to sell to force significant drops in the sp as sells are being bought up, so Retail investors (us) are in a strong position at the moment.

10 years of bad luck can be erased by 1 good one and we can see Navitas don't believe in luck ,just delivery .

P.S , for me , the longer OM is delayed now the better for the sp , the fact that news could drop any day is a big risk for seller(s) and could be costly to re enter if the sp does not retrace.

Have a look at the Wall street cheat sheet. It applies to a market cycle , but RKH performance is very similar in it's behaviour.

https://priceactionninja.com/wall-street-cheat-sheet-the-psychology-of-market-cycles/

For me we are at the "Belief " stage only.

Learn some basic TA, I have said it before and urge all holders to try. You cant control news outflow, good or bad, but you can know resistance and support , every little bit of knowledge helps, I have lost a lot of money without it and have lost a lot less with it , LOL.

GLA

LTT,

"Maybe we are lucky holding shares whilst the clear picture cannot be seen! Every day, week, month, more dots are being joined up and one day the picture will become clear to everyone."

IMO This a major advantage that retail investors have over institutions. The ability to join some dots before they are actually confirmed as being joined ... ... . Institutions have to wait for confirmation when already invested, they have to pour over the significance of a dot being joined to the overall big dot.

Retail can front run the news of a dot about to be joined, which is very likely what is happening now .

Retail takes the most risk ,but can gain the most reward.

Hope no one is going Dotty, some tunes here have certainly changed in 2 weeks.

e.g - Funding is not going to be a problem imo ......... , so this is me front running the institutions , but I have added and de risked as I go along.

GLA

It just been over 2 years, on 7th Dec 2022, that the Ad-hoc committee was formed to review an already concluded case with severe limitations on scope for review.

The process is being made beyond excruciating by the appalling length of time it takes to come to a decision and the cost of the proceedings.

They are ALL largely lawyers , be they arbiters, claimants or respondents all on a retainer milking the arbitration system at the expense of companies and states.

How they can justify taking 7 to 10 years to conclude proceedings is beyond my understanding.

Shameless grift not justice imo.

Should be get a award decision soon, I expect it will be an intraday rns and not 1st thing.

Retail is not selling in quantities required to meet demand , so ....

Looks to me like Retail( us ) is not selling ,forcing the sp up as new buyers come in.

20p will be a big psychological area for LTH , if OM lands next week then straight through it with conviction ,imo.

Agree with Ovets and LTT, the penny has dropped and more importantly psychologically the extra phases to me make it a certainty that fid will occur.

The 6 months will hopefully be enough time for FIG to get their act in order for FID to be announced.

SpaceHoppa ,

Hopefully there will be many stories like yours as the reward for long term holders is well overdue.

I suspect a lot of holders like myself have no oil industry working knowledge just what we learnt through the bull years of oil and gas or indeed when 1st investing in the FI oilers.

I found this today and it's a nice refresher course.

Some interesting insights into FEED, finance , procurement and fid/ sanction.

No mention of "Formalities" at all, just processes required to achieve a successful FID, they are getting there.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Complete-Guide-To-FIDs.html

Judging by the "new" names posting , this will likely be their 1st entry in RKH and as media coverage increases with each milestone more eyes and money will join,plus a positive OM decision will ensure financial stability and even more interest fill follow. A lot of small cap oilers struggle to have positive balance sheet and most all are carrying debt, RKH has no debt as such , though the tax issue is still ongoing which they hope to resolve and not relevant till 1st oil anyway..

The sp will move as even more newer investors join and older hands add as significant milestones are achieved, FDP approval, rig contract etc .For long term holders don't knock the grind up as sellers leave , more stable pricing is welcome for the long run, not ideal for me as I like to trade a part of my holding here, but still positive in the long run.

FIG have been slow to up their game , though not due to lack of effort, bureaucracy and money constraint have not helped. Navitas have put their hand in their pocket to help towards this .

FIG are dependent on their out sourcing partners to go through the EIS and FDP as example, so they cannot rush this as their constituents and the FIG assembly rely on this outside expertise.

This is significantly a retail held stock, II's or funds looking to buy in will have to move the price up, there are going Israeli investors looking to buy and I suspect an American listing is an option after Sealion Sanction.... quite some way to go .

These calculations of a buyout , where/ what is the premium for a billion plus barrels , with significant upside .

Have study of the Dana petroleum buyout, now consider that the NS wasn't as heavily taxed as it is now . In addition companies were moving in to NS, whilst they are now leaving and looking for more receptive areas . The problem is these areas are not easy to enter, some are in conflict zones and have unstable fiscal regimes, Iraq, Egypt, most of Africa etc.

This is a British company in a British territory and those knockers of Sam for their own poor investing should remember a lot of people made money here. If not for him as a founder partner there would be no RKH.

Onwards and upwards ,

GLA

IMHO, A positive OM award dropping when we are near late teens on the sp should break the 20p resistance.

Oscar,

Currently as stated by the company via the operator , fid is in H1 2025, therefore not vague .

Sorry Covgaz you beat me to it,lol.

Must be college students and the unemployed buying, that's what I've read here.

Chess,

Why state flagrantly unrealistic figures for a takeover and then say not to get fixated on them .

The Sealion coverage will only keep increasing and more eyes and money will follow the Sealion Field Development as it gets through each milestone to FID.

Suspect someone got caught with their pants down and sold hoping for a crash , when the FID case just became stronger with the additional phases.

Bear in mind contractors ( be they oil traders, fpso owner, banks and bond holders ETC) would be set for many, many years of solid returns.

OM, will take us past 15p and RKH share of Sealion cost significantly reduced.