Member Info for Marunam2

Morning LTT,

Re Sp :

There is a simple enough reason why sp is heading towards breaking 50p, but I will refrain from posting what it is , in case It does not occur. As you noted there is little volume right now , imo were that to change and the volume increases a good deal and sp closes above 50p for a few days at least, then then we may see the end of 50p.

Re Shenandoah _ I searched online and it seems it takes around 3-4 weeks for 3 production wells to be tied back to the FPS, then testing . If all goes to plan then your timeline seems reasonable.

PS, Personally I would be the last to trust an Argentine government to keep it's word when it comes to money and assets.

Ovets, I suspect that RKH announcing their own CPR for later in the year might just be an insurance policy for possible borrowing and to ward off predatory takeovers once FID is on the horizon.

I shall be imbibing tonight, thanks for asking.

From memory, your previous price predictions were off to put it politely, lol.

I beg to differ Oscar on the insurance.

As it stands sp is in the 40's. I could well imagine what MM's and II's would be doing to the sp and retail holders if the insurance were not in place. They themselves know that the 32m euro's props up the price, do they want to take a chance on OM dropping anytime and while Shenandoah comes ever closer to production.

Raising the funds for RKH against fid should not be a problem at all. Any numerous ways could be used to do that,

e.g letting 5% go of the holding to a partner coming in who likely pay a significant amount for the 5%, RBL etc also possible.

RKH started off with nothing when they took on Italy, so kudos to Sam and the board for covering the award, nothing is ever without cost.

Or, they could be discussing a settlement. Italy may want to settle to avoid further cases coming to Icsid.

If that is the case Icsid will not declare the case closed till they get the nod from both parties that it's settled.

I did post yesterday "The markets currently defying gravity TODAY." .

Now we know why ?

The Chinese and Japanese selling US bonds, big oil in his ear that $50 OP was going to screw them over and big tech ( Apple, maybe even Tesla ) and likely even his own party were in the vacuum between his ears that his end was nearing if he didn't reverse.

One of his cronies ,Charles Schawb was in the oval office at the time and he made $2.5 B yesterday as blurted out by the buffoon.

Oil recovering somewhat thankfully.

My 10 cents worth, it was 2 cents but I put a tariff on it.

The markets currently defying gravity TODAY.

Tomorrow the first inflation data pre tariffs comes out , it's next months that should worry everyone ,nervous just thinking about it. The benchmark tomorrow will be the base for things to come for tariff lovers.

Re Navitas costs/ profits - The letters signed are MOU/ LOI etc, if oil were to stay below $60 , there will be many a project that will be put on hold . BUT equally well funded ones which result in profit even at $50 "right now" will forge ahead , as in 3 years time Trump will be either gone or coming to the end of his term . At $50 OP, some planned oil production in the USA will shut in or postpone till prices recover, OPEC is boosting supply in May , so difficult to gauge where oil price ends up in the next 2 months.

Prolonged low oil price is coming if there is a depression and along with that the lowering of rates for oil infrastructure companies as rigs, manufacturing plants start to search for work to keep the business going .

Good for those not worried for the short term as the their projects are 3 years from production .

The FEED contains contingency funding for these types of situations , typically 5% - 7.5% of the cost.$1.4B

As tariffs seem to be currently USA centric, long as the FPSO ( Dutch owned I believe ) rig ??, lead items , subsea etc are not supplied via the USA then cost should be unaffected for Sealion excluding inflationary ones.

Thank god OM has not come out so far this week, a pump and dump would have ensued.

GLA

Weekly FVG filled.

I do mind ,if the cost of materials and lead items are re negotiated because of tariffs and the cost of materials increases, a 10% cost increase would not be welcome. If they are being sourced in the USA then ......??

As we don't know who they are securing these items from we will have to wait and see.

A depression is not going to augur well for the oil price either.

I posted some time ago Mizrahi Tefahot Bank Ltd are also shareholders of Navitas I believe AND RKH.

Another Israeli bank is also a RKH shareholder : First International Bank of Israel Ltd

Well not ideal for sure, but 100% ownership of licences , FID ready, project would be extremely attractive to someone.

£1B plus has been invested to get here and bar the FID, has passed all the regulatory hoops put in front of them.

What would be the valuation to RKH to sell or be bought out . North of 1b at least because it's fid ready imho.

Long as retail ( us ) don't sell in high volume or receive an adverse piece of news then MM and Insti's have to keep paying higher !! which has been the case till now .

GLA

Hope OM news does not come in this week, with Trumps tariffs coming into play from tomorrow and "liberation Day " promised on Wednesday promising tariffs across the board, to all countries , it may get very ugly in the markets this week.

My belief is that the pending OM award outcome and the impending FPS vessel sitting on Shenandoah is keeping the uptrend intact .

gla

Could/ should , see a good few 43000 -44000 as SELL trades , as people take up their £20k bed and isa allocation .

Thought I would share some info for those laggards for various reasons like me who have left the bed and Isa late .

ii have issues with their app , which is where they want their customers to apply for BED and ISA.

The app is NOT allowing that to happen . spent a day and a half on the app trying to sort it to no avail.

Should you be an ii customer and want to BED and ISA , call them and they will charge the £3.99 dealing fee on the buy and none on the sell .

The normal charge is £50 for dealing on the phone but they are waiving it and are charging only £3.99. , stamp and Levy as per usual. So get it done on the phone .

FYI: Sorted out 3 isa's today .

Those 45000 sell's @11.30 to 11.45am were my BED +Isa sell and buy back , BUT all of them showed as SELL's

GLA

One thing is obvious, Tadmor with 11% of Navitas is a hard headed businessman but also as per the debt raised a damm good salesman.

He has stated that Navitas want to be the operator and has the experience to deal with a partner coming on board.

He will drive a hard bargain and whatever the price paid to enter will translate to RKH % holdings.

With the various funding tools available to Navitas e.g bonds , oil traders , banks etc and with the project FID ready , he can drive a hard bargain.

They have a partner(s) lined up imo, Navitas are not the kind of company to leave it to the last minute. Haggling over the cost to enter may still be ongoing as evidenced with these Resource and planning updates for the lenders and partner(s).

If I had 35%, i would let it be known I am not reducing my stake , or make me an offer I can't refuse.

I am sure Navitas would want RKH to do that as well as it translates to their farm in negotiations.

GLA

Maybe it's for investors or for financial reasons and it being an independent report for RKH themselves. Would look a bit silly if they don't have their own report.

This is the main reason for the report I suspect.

"a significant number of barrels have been moved from 'Development On Hold' to 'Development Pending' classification."

A really good update.

FEED - MOU signed for FPSO and Subsea equipment.

Category upgrade to Development pending.

FID remains on track for MID 2025.

OM award.

The 184M euro award was the amount RKH valued OM at the time of purchase. The tribunal took this figure and not the 319M euro value MOG put on it . Additionally the expert for RKH valued OM at 284M euro at the hearing .

Based on the above this award amount should be hard to change and imo the amount will stand .

Also a possibility that there are negotiations going on if this drags out another month .

As was mentioned , a legal firm was forwarded money by the Italian state for OM. Remains to be seen if this is for fighting the award in court or for negotiating payment and the legal paperwork required.

Navitas on Monday saying Sea Lion fid and Shenandoah 1st oil on track would be a much required boost and underpin where the sp is .

NO8's - I make you right on the H and S .

OM award dropping anytime is imo likely saving a drop, for now .

GLA

My layman's understanding is 4-6 weeks for 4 production wells barring any mishap.