Member Info for Marunam2

It's reassuring for me that no one on this chat board has any say in Navitas, RKH and Sealion operations.

Is Isobel the current priority for Navitas / RKH ? or is it nailing on Funding > FIG approval > FID.

Navitas Sealion plan : A > B > C > D > E > .........

Chat board Sealion plan interpretation : A >B > F > G> C > W > X >D ....

Gormless Bunch : SL 77.6

GLA

79.80 - 81.4 , 3x -5x, 90.4 -98.5

GLA

Fair enough Santos 1, I have done that myself.

I was actually referencing some long time posters who have now gone negative for whatever reason without facts to back them up, just inuendo and half truths they know full well to be incorrect.

Just getting tedious and repetative.

One would hope by now that any newbies would be doing / had done their DD on this stock .

Whereas when FID is announced the following publicity will bring in the FOMO crowd and the ensuing pump/ dump crowd. Seen it too many times not to be ready.

GLA

Not sure why some of the more balanced posters are bothering entertaining some obvious nonsense being spouted at his point in time .

Oil price, Argentina, UK Govt, FIG , Israel etc etc etc .

Save your reasoned posts for the flood of newbies that will come when FID is announced.

RKH will be going to a pound this month imho, T/A wise : because of the channel break and bull flag.

I'd rather like to know if anyone's T/A has the same take on it .

GLA

Happy ,

Overbought was 10p to 550p on discovery and appraisal .

89p on a binary bet of going of pre fid to fid is nothing compared to that rise.

Those coming on board , mainly the II's and those II's waiting to come on board when FID is announced are here for the long term , their investment is not dependent on age, personal financial circumstances and irrational emotion, they are going to enter based on the investment case in front of them when they enter.

There is a lifetime earnings and dividends to look forward too for the young here.

Also, the retail herd has not arrived yet imho. FID will bring II's and retail .

Finally , where will you get very likely returns of 100% + from here , plus dividends within 5-6 years .

GLA

This kind of rise before a funding meeting has to be triggered by a significant agreement or more then one agreement having been finalised.

Could be just a pre funding rise , but going into the most important investor meeting for Sealion for Navitas would surely require some guarantee / nod from FIG re fiscal terms for Sealion being agreed to or / and Rig lease terms and contract finalised and agreed to etc.

Someone is front running this , not complaining mind.

Still see £1 on the bull flag .

GLA

Happy,

You have moved on from dangerous unknown events pre FID to dangerous unknown events after FID.

Fail to see the point of this argument you make of RKH being dead in the water due to a black swan event after FID, in which case we should all sell out completely NOW ? .

Excrement happens, people need to do their own DD, de risking, Safeguarding their positions etc.

You like everyone here including me ,have NO idea of where the sp will go, that is a fact borne out by you selling some, prematurely it seems now from your posts.

Stirring up future, unknown, negative, black swan events based on no facts should not go unchallenged.

This share has always been a one trick pony, but what a pony, could be Red Rum or could be poor Shergar, but currently giving us LTH's a great ride.

GLA.

Stevo12 : "You are correct. The $800m of equity ($100m RKH and $700m Navitas) will be spent first before the $1b debt facility is drawn down. This will be a requirement of the facility. As Navitas loan to RKH is interest free, RKH should not be paying interest until 2027."

I said the same a few days ago rather clumsily, though kudo's to you as you have summed it up perfectly .

This is why in my strategy , I believe the sp will keep rising for the next year after FID.

Also was expecting an rns this week on OM and / or an amended conditional shares Issue, maybe Monday/ Tuesday now after Navitas meeting now.

GLA

HappyI'100 , I disagree re debt . ,

RKH will not have sizable debt as soon as FID is announced, the funds raised will be used first , once the funds run out the loan kicks in , that could be 10- 16 months AFTER FID and much , much nearer to 1st oil then 3 years.

GLA

Would a further RNS next week surprise me ?, no.

Any off or all off : Subscription placing amendment / OM - further monetisation and re submission / Insurance cost settlement ?.

Time is running out so hence next week .

GLA

From the Placing rns 31/07 :

US$1 billion of the cost to project completion is expected to be funded through a senior secured debt financing package. The base equity requirement under the project financing to project completion, once all fees, interest charges, contingencies and post-First Oil revenues have been taken account of, is US$790 million.

Admittedly the $1.8b is / was not something I was expecting. The interest payments are safeguarded within the $400m , as well as 5% to 8% of the overall cost figure of 1.8b as contingencies.

This is a greenfield site and lots of unknowns till they are known .

GLA, especially Happy.

HappyInvestor100 : "I noticed from the Navitas call transcript yesterday that someone helpfully shared cost to first oil is now estimated to be a whopping $1.8bn. I obviously haven't been paying enough attention and wonder when and why this has increased?"

You cannot be serious Happy !!!!, but I think you are .

GLA

Agree with Bluedeferder. Bull flag formed > up to a 100p target imho..

What I hope to see :

Once Insurance money received >>>>> +84p and rising >>>>>> conditional Raise cancelled >>>>>>> $9m raise for retail continues( maybe slightly more more raised ) >>>> FID announced >>>( Navitas introduce partner ?? ) >>>> RKH becomes more investible on FID for mainstream II's , investment funds and pension funds. >>>>> SP 1.??

OM to be sold off completely. (£40m - £60m )

GLA

Paul,

Therefore if they receive the insurance pay out, the conditional placing will be withdrawn imo before the meeting .

SpaceHoppa,

Some good points made SH.

I will be watching closely IF / When the insurance matter is settled.

IF it is settled in full to RKH, then is there a need for the conditional $25 placing and warrants ??.

I feel as if RKH has the $25m placing as a defensive tactic in case the unforeseen happens and the insurance is not paid.

If it is paid then the $25m placing can be cancelled.

Yet they can still go ahead with the $9.2m offering to reward retail holders, which if the conditional $25m placing is then cancelled, it would be imo oversubscribed as there would be less dilution .

We will surely know re the insurance payment with in the next month , waiting here on something of significance yet again .

GLA

Happy,

from RNS: If FID does not occur by 31 March 2026, or the Placing Agreement is otherwise terminated in accordance with its terms and Admission does not occur, funds held in the Escrow Account (including any accrued interest) will be returned to Placees.

I suspect the points one and two and three you make are likely to be explained by this :

https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/3-point-perspective/three-trends-driving-demand-for-escrow.html

"In addition, alongside instant access deposits, escrow funds can be placed on Escrow Treasury Deposits, which allows the Escrow Parties to place escrow funds on fixed term deposits that can be matched to the planned drawdown schedule to provide additional options for generating yield.

This would explain the end date set for FID to complete- a fixed term to 31 March end .

At no interest cost to RKH bar fees for the account paid by the raise.

GLA

Somebody has given the nod to RKH, whether it's Navitas , the lead bank via Navitas , FIG or all three.

FIG requires funding guarantee and Decomm' costs inc' in funding.

Navitas requires FIG to agree oil pricing, royalties and taxes.

Lead bank wants all of the above in hand and signed off and everything to add up to about $1.7b in total and all relevant agreements set in stone with suppliers.

This is the final phase and likely the most complicated to organise because of the moving parts.

This is why RKH wanted committed funds, from the time of the AGM to recently, they have been told their funding requirement pre FID.

Can they take a chance on retail investors coughing up $20m,$30m, $40m, in a very short time span, no way imo.

Would retail be spooked as the sp fell to 53p with the placing to all holders. ??, Definitely .

The honest truth is most everyone on this board is heavily invested here, probably overexposed, I am FYI.

So for me in my current position , I want the FID taken , bearing in mind it was 50p a month ago, and may be 50p again at some stage, BUT it will be FULLY funded, so I can rest easy.

Institutions will come and hoover up any drops after FID is taken imo, so not worried at all .

IF, Dilution is a price I have to pay for huge gains and certainty of the project, count me in .

GLA

Many frustrated here , including me , at the conditions set for this raise.

A month ago RKH was 50% lower then it is today !!!! 50% !!!

Today, It has "firm" commitments for funds and they will be deposited into an escrow account , so money is in hand at FID decision time.

IMO, The longer they left the funding in the air , the further back the FID decision would have to be.

If the insurance does not for any reason come in , then they have that portion of the money covered NOW, not after, when very likely the sp would have taken a dump .

Much ' : MC is $483.91m has a SP of 75p today.

$1B MC would therefore give a SP of ????

Got to bear in mind that the lead bank and the syndicate funding Sealion would require Navitas and RKH have the funds ready for FID.

RKh has done that today and Navitas don't have issues with funding.

The 5% extra contingencies is in a normal range , also FIG protecting the Island with the requirement for Decomm' costs upfront ,also covered by the raise.

Funding to tide over RKH till 1st oil.

So as far as Sam and the board are concerned the raise is clean and quick.

It wouldn't surprise me if the board offered retail a larger placing nearer the time.