Member Info for Marmot74

+148k jobs i.e. missed expectations of + 190k jobs. Gold and silver not wacked hard.

US December non farm payrolls release today at 13.30 UK time. I expect they will smack gold and silver on the announcement "comme d'habitude". But $1300 for gold and $17 for silver are increasingly looking like support lines. NFP forecast +190k jobs vs +228k previous month

A good sign that over the last two weeks since the -3.5% YTD close 133.5p on Wed 6/12 when gold closed $1266 +9.9% YTD the minimum mean reversion I was looking for by year end of CEY at least matching gold's YTD rise has almost been confirmed with the share price rise today. CEY at 150.50p +13p YTD +9.39% Gold $1265.30 +$113.30 YTD +9.835% Of course it would be naive not to expect a cartel hit on Comex over the quiet holiday period but the double bottom pattern for CEY suggests it is well set for the traditional Jan-Mar seasonal rally. Happy Christmas and a prosperous New Year to everyone.

In September I pondered on here whether we were putting in the right shoulder of a reverse head and shoulder pattern where the left shoulder is designated as the Sept 2016 low; the (inverse) head the Dec 2016 lows; and the right shoulder the Sept 2017 lows. The problem has been the failed breakout in October at 150p and the retest lower into this December. Was this a right shoulder with a chip on it or something else ? As an alternative I now suggest that the monthly bar chart now shows a powerful double bottom confirmation:Sept-Dec 2016 and Sept- Dec 2017. As we close out the year Centamin's share price might yet mean revert to at least the gold price gain for the year and be set up well for the a repeat of last year's Jan-April rally. Some of our forecasts and hopes for Centamin seem to have been dimmed by the grinding nature of the five year gold bear market 2011-2015. But realistically gold and silver remain way undervalued compared to all other financial assets and Centamin's record high of 203p remains a modest peak for a company of such potential. The now 6 year sideways coiling price action is going to release latent torque at some stage for the share price. Why not 2018 ?

Today is quarterly ETF re-balancing which affects CEY as a constituent of GDX and GDXJ and their 3x leveraged subsets. In terms of impact on CEY's share price range, volatility and volume yesterday and today has been unusually tranquil. This time last year saw volume on Thurs 15/12 of 19.19m and a trading range of 12.7p. Followed up by Fri 16/12 trading 23.33m shares. In the last 4 quarters there has tended volatility on the Thursday. Not this time. This Qtr re-balancing is placid in comparison. Yesterday's volume was just 5.6m shares with a range of 3.4p. With just two hours trading remaining for Friday the range is less than 4p and the volume is way below an average normal day of 5.1m shares traded. What might this be indicating ? As the CEY share price is so close to the 3rd Qtr re-balancing close of 141.6p it is likely being treated as a "hold" in all the ETF's. Gold has come through the Fed rate rise and CEY has broken above some key moving averages like the 100DMA and the downtrend resistance line in place since April. I get the impression there are many firm hands now sitting patiently waiting for the seasonal January uplift to mean revert. CEY is only +4.5% YTD right now vs +8.5% for gold. At the minimum CEY should be up with gold. When gold stocks are re-discovered by the herd the traditional x2 to x3 uplift for quality miner stocks to gold should re-assert itself.

I like the share price action so far in December. With the Fed almost certain to raise US Int rates by 0.25% this evening is it a question of "sell the rumour, buy the news" with quality PM miners? The cartel have managed to push gold and silver down and buy back a lot of their shorts in December, but for the last few days quality gold co's including CEY have been holding or rising. Centamin's share price at 141.65 on the daily bar chart is now right up against the descending resistance line in place since the year high 193.90 on 13/4. It touched the line on 3/8 at 170p and twice in Nov 27-28/11 at 145p. In January the new year gold rally saw the share price break through it's 100DMA at 144p on 11/1 and then go on to add 50p in the Spring run up. Are investors quietly picking up some cheap Centamin shares here in anticipation that we may once again be about to start a new upleg signalled by a decisive break above the 100DMA (currently 145p) ? Over to you Mrs Yellen.

Wed 13/12 with a 95% expectation of a 0.25% rise. It's baked in say the analysts. The only surprise now would be if they chickened out (which would be bullish for gold). Yet if history repeats last December's rate rise action then gold and CEY price will likely bottom the following day and lay the groundwork for the move up in the seasonal Jan-Feb rally. Interesting to note that the Globex gold futures price was not bombed overnight Sunday/Monday Asian market. They religiously knock gold then so why not last night? Were they worried that if they did that the launch of CBOE futures in Bitcoin last night might have got out of hand ? Friday 15th Dec quarterly ETF re-balancing which is important for CEY as a constituent of a number of ETF's. But as we are only 2.15p below the close at the last re-balancing 15/9 perhaps it will be less volatile. Plus we are very close to CEY FY figures and the seasonal Jan-Feb precious metal rally period. Of course bankers and investment managers want to maximise their year end bonuses but trying to squeeze more downside profits by additional shorting here in PM's and their miners now feels more like Russian roulette. Which will only end badly for them. Fund managers are herd animals but where will they re-allocate profits from overvalued tech holdings or find a safe haven today in bubble land ? How about long ignored PM's ?

Uncertain, this sudden gold spike is the last thing the gold cartel needed. Comex daily volumes are increasing dramatically and a further 20,559 Comex gold contracts were transferred to LBMA yesterday as EFP : exchange for physical, with a cash bonus. These things are not even audited as they don't officially exist ! Harvey Organ estimates the wait for delivery out of LBMA for both gold and silver is now 13 weeks. Andrew Maguire's clock may be close to being right. Evidently the paper control of the price is getting increasingly frenzied. 5/12 is first notice day for Dec Comes deliveries. The cartel was hoping to flush out the longs with the price bombing every day this week at 13.00. Will the re-action in the last hour encourage more longs to stand for delivery ? There are three major challenges for markets looming in the next 10 days : pass a Tax bill; US Debt ceiling expiry on 8/12; Fed Int. rate decision 13/12. The gold surge and Wall St dump was a perfect reminder of how reliant markets are on programme trading algos. They can control most markets most of the time with existing information but it all goes haywire with an unexpected event. I suspect we will see many more events like this.

***** + just announced : US Tax Bill has been delayed and as a result DJ, S&P, Nasdaq are getting spanked.

Thanks for the info Somnamna. Having more eggs in different baskets makes perfect sense for Josef. It looks like Josef put in A$5m of the original capital using the Nordanna and BPM vehicles he used for his Centamin shareholdings and divestments. The appendix also notes (10.11) that the 3 directors involved were the same who were denied taking over Indiana Resources in May this year. Just eight days later they formed AIC on 11/5/17. If Josef was hoping that the recent hype surrounding Novo Resources further to the North in W Australia would fire up interest in AIC then the set back with test drilling for Novo Resources reported on 28/11 where their share price halved from A$8.48 to A$4.6 just underlines the tough current environment for miners, explorers and IPO's.

I remain optimistic my friend, as you should with your early adoption of cryptocurrencies. You called that one spectacularly right. The problem with Exchange regulations is that they are designed to regulate and jail the plebs : including fund managers, insurance, pension co's, hedge funds and retail investors- and the plebs are not the ones rigging markets. But the big fish are immune from criminal responsibility. They accept corporate liability, pay a large fine out of their egregious winnings and carry on. It stinks and people like Harvey Organ are invaluable in pulling back the curtain on how they maintain control. We need a massive purge of the misallocated capital and betrayal of trust that has gone on for years. Obama in 2008 said the banks had to be bailed as they were too big to fail. But it can't be done again we're already in debt hell. I keep thinking that Bitcoin's importance is more symbolic as it shows that a de-centralized financial market, which no one controls, which has no director or office or domicile, can work. Is this how we are going to wrest control off the central bankers and manipulators ? Does Bitcoin show that we could all potentially be our own central bank and control our own capital and assets via smart phones? I believe that the blockchain will have a critically important part to play in the recovery after the next financial crisis. It may even be a central role if by then the Fed and other central banks have completely lost confidence. Of course there are going to be many growth pains and missteps in cryptos along the way. Most of the current 1300 cryptos will fail just like 1999-2000 dotcom bust but what will potentially emerge may be as revolutionary as Amazon or Facebook. Times they are a changing. Bring it on.

Every day this week from 13.00 Comex gold and silver has been hit with a wave of at market short sales. Today was the same. And yet, all is not what it seems. The shenanigans being pulled to keep gold and silver tethered are getting more and more extreme. In the attached article from Harvey Organ's daily Comex update he includes two letters he recently wrote to the US CFTC for which he has yet to receive a reply. The key passage : "the bankers continue to supply massive amounts of paper gold/silver with 100% certainty that there is not any physical to supply." He details the now habitual daily practice of EFP private contracts on Comex where longs standing for delivery are given a cash premium to take their delivery at the LBMA. And therefore Comex avoids defaulting. Simple. Reckon they can continue this until Trump upsets either China or Russia. When they have enough cheap physical a major sovereign standing for Comex or LBMA will break this game of pass the parcel it's just a matter of the right moment. https://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/gold-news/harvey-organ-there-is-no-gold-at-the-comex-they-cannot-supply-any-metal/

My thoughts for answers. The easy one first. Pure gold doesn't tarnish so don't worry about that. In it's 8 year short life so far the Bitcoin bubble has burst frequently with corrections of up to 80%. So we should not be surprised by another whiplash move. But notably it has always recovered. The CME are about to start a cash settling futures contract in it. Let's see how it deals with paper shorting like the rest of us. Cryptocurrency and the blockchain are already disrupting our status quo...just like Amazon,Uber and Airb&b. As for fanaticism isn't that just part of being a risk taking innovator ? James Dyson would no doubt be delighted to be called a fanatic and just look at his success disrupting the Hoover and hand dryer markets. If you imagine the financial markets as a set of scales with Bitcoin on one side. Even if the $150bn market cap Bitcoin burst and died, or indeed the whole crypto space (worth $250bn) eviserated, it's insignificant compared with the real bubbles in residential property, securitised debt and equities on the other scale. These three bubbles are now worth $311 trillion. I'd be much more worried about a 10% correction in any or all of these bubbles. Then gold will likely play a key role as a safe haven. Gold and gold miners will have an important role to play. They just haven't been called on stage yet.

confirmed. Between 13.00 and 13.30 UK time $6bn notional was dumped on Comex gold just as the latest US Q3 GDP figure was released (a rise to +3.3% annulized vs +3.2% expected). Silver was also clubbed. But let's see how long the sell-off lasts. recently the effectiveness of these at market dumping operations appears to be producing smaller and smaller drawdowns. Ye the cartel want big drawdowns in order to buy back their shorts for fat profits. The co-ordinated selling has now happened at 13.00 each day this week and they already have a very large short book. It's a dangerous game being played very close to the physical support price for gold and silver.

Some encouraging news for Egyptian gold mining, exploration and positive teamwork EMRA. Is this a sign of a new pragmatism from the authorities to get on and help the miners succeed and thereby help Egypt? Aton Resources notified EMRA ,on 20/11/17, of their intention to construct a producer mine at Hamama on or before the end of 2019. They are proposing an open pit leach mining operation. They also thanked EMRA for "their forward thinking" in granting them a 2 year extension to their exploration licence for their Abu Marawat concession. Yes, you read that correctly EMRA's being proactive!!!!! And Centamin gets a mention as the pathfinder. Not to get too far ahead of this one development but it might indicate that the next auction round, after the farce of the last one, (under the now sacked previous Director of EMRA) might be more likely be on Western commercial terms. If so it would vindicate Centamin's management's position last time round and they could enter the fray as a very strong candidate for another concession. https://www.atonresources.com/news/2017/aton-announces-its-intention-to-issue-a-declaration-of-commerciality-at-the-hamama-project-within-its-abu-marawat-concession/

After the Arbitration judgement does OXS have any title to or 50% of a mine in Uzbekistan ? Did we own or lease the machinery which is still in situ ? What happens to the machinery now ? If we still have an ownership interest in Uzbekistan would a rapid rise in the gold bullion price in 2016 ( due to Fed QE4 perhaps) mean that the hole in the ground might again be of interest to the Chinese to buy it outright ?

Well said.