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Edit : para 3 should read:

instead of "...why so few..."

" ...why virtually no-one will analyse the gold price discovery." GATA is one such honourable exception.

...

mrtibble and others will I believe find the attached article by well respected gold analyst Ronan Manly timely, pertinent and exasperating.

Firstly it notes how Paulson's new Shareholders Gold Council (SGC) want to coordinate to hold leading miners more to account. The article details the history of squandered investment in the gold sector between 2010 and 2017 highlighting 13 of the world's largest miners. Over that period they had to write off $85bn of dud investments. But the executives somehow managed to pay themselves $550m over the same period.

In the second half of the article Manly asks why Paulson's Council is not raising the most important issue determining gold miner success...why so few in the gold space (including Pushmepullyou's champion The World Gold Council) refuse to analyse the gold price discovery.

Another example of the opaque nature of the gold price was GATA's letter in May asking the US Regulator for an explanation for the enormous scale of Exchange for Physical contracts between Comex and LBMA in 2018 to date. They have yet to receive a reply.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-26/paulson-and-shareholders-gold-council-sgc-just-dont-mention-gold-price

Thanks I feel better after that. I remain optimistic because all the essential elements are in place for progress in a rising gold price environment. But the Board needs to start scoring regularly for Centamin to become a leader and not an also ran.

mrtibbles you highlight some of the problems but I want to highlight some solutions. Firstly, if there was any complacency by management it has hopefully all gone now with the last three weeks share price fall and the drop out of the top 200 UK quoted companies. The vast majority of investors want both capital appreciation for their shareholdings and a progressive dividend policy. It is about time that the Board made share price appreciation a core metric for share vesting and bonuses. As it is we private investors take the risk buying shares with after tax income whereas the vast majority of Mr Pardey and Co's shares are awarded "gratis". In that sense we have much more skin and risk and pain than they do. I hope that this point has been grasped. Market makers are not so important today. 96% of all trading is programme trading. Their algos filter all news looking for positive or negative changes. We lost 30% of the share price as the RNS was outside of normal reporting and contradicted ie a negative surprise to that of Q1 given 3 weeks earlier. Added to that analysts could cite the" same old news" as Centamin has nothing else to demonstrate progress. One country, one mine, two court cases and 2 green field explorations are not news that one can keep repeating as unchanged and expect the share price to progress. But the tin ear award went for the announcement that Korn Ferry would review management renumeration. I want management rewarded for problem solving and strategic development of our business. Centamin PLC is competing for investor funds. I want to see our Board being proactive like similarly sized Kirkland Lake. They now have 3 active mines in Ontario and strategic shareholding investments in 3 prospectors in Australia including Novo Resources. Is W.Africa a goer ? If Centamin can't envisage a mine plan within a year we should be looking to invest the majority of the cash holding in a late stage developer in another safe jurisdiction or buy a shareholding strategic stake to harness the gold price rally before prices take off. I hope the Board are constantly reviewing all options available especially with their Australian roots and contacts. Sukari is an ideal foundation for a major gold company. Does the Board share my ambition ?

Dimensional are not a new investor. The RNS was required because their holding surpassed 5% with their latest top up on 11/6. The institutional shareholder record shows that they were the 3rd largest holder in April of 2017 with then a 3.33% holding and 38.25m shares. So over the last 13 months they have added a total of 19.8m shares or +1.69%. As of the last report Blackrock was the biggest holder with 14.8% and 170.58m shares followed by VanEck (of the ETF's GDX and GDXJ which CEY is a constituent of) with 9.26%. But the VanEck may change with the ETF rebalancing on Friday 15/6.

Despite the current angst and gloom on here sentiment for CEY, gold miners generally and gold are not Sisyphus condemned to push a boulder uphill then watch it roll back down again...for eternity. At worst our crime is buying a great stock and sector too early in the business cycle. We are captives of the gold price and individual co performance until animal spirits return to the gold sector. As Grant Williams put it "nobody cares about gold and mining stocks". But that will change. Look at how CEY tripled in 7 months in H1 2016 from 61p to 184p on gold's mini bull run from $1045 to $1375. Looking at the 10 year gold chart shows the potential if it can get above $1380...then CEY and other miners will start to perform with rising momentum and sentiment and we'll be out of this perpetual vicious circle and into a virtuous one. Again looking at recent history we've seen this kind of drop before.The 9/11/16 top out at 170p post the Trump election gold spike. As gold was capped viciously the following day CEY started a 5 week slide down to 114.60p low of 15/12/16 where it bottomed with the Fed int rate rise of that day. There was also an ETF rebalancing 19m volume flush out on Fri 16/12. We're now in week three of this drawdown and today we are likely to get a 0.25% Fed int rate rise, but that is largely priced in. What Powell says about guidance will dictate how gold is likely to react. As it happens we also have an ETF rebalancing on Fri 15/6 so I expect high volume volatility for the next couple of days. Overall I feel that the majority of sellers have sold now and we await for sentiment to start to recover...as it always does. Seasonality may help. Gold usually starts to rise from second half of June through to September lead up to the Indian buying season. Lastly note that GATA wrote on 5/5/18 to the regulator to ask why if Comex exchange for physical contracts were an emergency measure are they now standard practice. They have received no reply to date.

Quite so mrtibbles. For me the presentation also underlines how the inevitable breakout in the gold price above $1370 and geographical mine diversity will be a transformative for Centamin and us battered shareholders. As we brood about the share price hit from the production cut I hope Korn Ferry advising the Renumeration Committee has been relegated low down on the list of priorities for our Board. We know that a number of us on here have substantial skin in the CEY game ie 100k + 500k shares. I wonder if any other director is going to join Mr Bankes and buy while the share price languishing at 17 month lows ? Josef memorably bought 500k shares in both 2012 and 2013 albeit at much lower prices but the commitment was appreciated and it helped confidence. The search and selection of the Non Exec Chairman will tell us a lot about the real ambition of this post Josef Board. Do they want to build a great international long term gold mine business for all stakeholders ? I really hope that they hire someone like a Sprott, Mcewan or Neumeyer to lead Centamin onwards and upwards. I noted the impact that the cutback in production drops Sukari for 16th largest to 20th in the league of largest mines (page 13). Yet with just one mine Centamin is still in the top 30 largest gold miners in the world (page 13). That just underlines how critical having back-up plans and equipment are for a one mine company and just how valuable getting a second mine developed in another country for geographic and operational diversity will be. It is reassuring to note that in 2017 Sukari reserves rose more than were mined. In contrast the recent Maison Placements report stated that 50% of the gold majors are failing to replace reserves. The long term value of the existing resource at Sukari over at least 20 years is in contrast to an average of 10year gold mine life (page 4). I hope that it is an encouraging indicator that the total man hours worked in Cote D'Ivoire at 136,610 is an impressive 10% of Sukari's in less than 4 years. Can we dare to infer that Doropo is getting very close to a feasibility development project ? The Souwa deposit "material returned 85%-91% recoveries" (page 30) sounds promising. Finally, this caught my eye (page 33) "progress Sukari solar project feasibility study". Intriguing. Could they power the fixed equipment, crushers etc with solar and reduce their reliance on the rising costs of diesel ?

Agree with your comments. The 20 year mine life & large resource are not to be underestimated. Plus,we expect other ore on the tenement to be added in due course. A panelist at the Mines and money conference in NY last week said that the last large ( ie > 5m oz inferred discovery) was in 2011, the 7m oz Amaruq discovery by Agnico Eagle in Canada. A reminder of Sukari's scale and value, it is twice the size. Setbacks are inevitable in gold mining a point brought home in the latest 12 page report (attached) from Canadian Co. Maison Placements. They highlight the rise of resource nationalism in Congo, Tanzania, Mauritania, Mongolia and Indonesia. They also underline the importance of getting your new mine plans right : both Detour Gold and New Gold have to revisit their new mine plans. So if either BK or C D'Iv has real promise for Centamin it is probably a good sign that they are not rushing. Finally, note that the much hyped great hope for a second "Witwatersrand" in Pilbara, NW Australia saw gold explorer Novo resources shares drop 29% on 31/5 on poor assays. As we are painfully aware, whether you are an established producer or an explorer it's a tough business indeed. https://gallery.mailchimp.com/de2b777f071a0a47f54ed315e/files/ba008fcd-26a0-4ef3-a939-1c1bcfc63b30/WarDrumsBeating.01.pdf

Thanks firstly to mrtibbles for your heroic work this week, it is much appreciated and reassuring for us long term holders who were around for the 2011 and 2014 production cutbacks. History repeats and I try and learn its lessons. I only buy the CEY dips and just wait for the prices to come to me. I bought some more on Tuesday viewing a 17 month low price as a bargain. One positive of the unexpected prod cutback has been the quality of debate on here has improved dramatically. Angst, fear ,uncertainty and doubt can do that to you. Sotolo, Prof, Cowichan, Market, Siko and Rebess you've all made me think. So here's what I think. The current low share price is transitory. 10-15p either side of 150p is probably our best resting rate in the current gold mine sector "no man's land". In my view we are very close to a sector rerating and new demand led by a price break out by gold. 5 times since Sept gold has been capped at $1365. Our run up from 65p at end of 2015 was thanks to gold's mini craze in h1 2016. Yet all the reasons for owning gold keep rising. Will it be US inflation; Italy; the tariff war; or Deutsche bank that breaks the risk on general market ? The gold sector will not stay the Cinderella - the only scorned and undervalued sector for ever. No Rebess it is not different this time. When perception and sentiment change so will gold mine prices and forecasts. Hell we're at the same price today as on 29/3/10 when CEY completed first tonne of gold and Comex gold traded at $1112. So here we are at the same price after producing 16.9 tonnes in 2017 and gold closing the year at $1305. I suspect that we will see a stampede into quality gold co's when the switch is flicked. All the signs are there that we are close. Commercials have dramatically reduced their Comex short book and the daily sentiment index is back to overbears lows. Gold mining stocks are more undervalued relative to the S&P than any time since 2005. Paper gold prices may remain shackled until the Fed raises rates on 13/6. But don't believe what you read. Gold has risen after 5 of the 6 Fed rate rises since 2015. I expect gold to lead miners after 13/6. The perception and interest in gold shares will return we just have to accumulate cheaply and await the new dawn. It's coming.

What a delightful dilemma. Centamin is in a tiny minority of co's with large free cash flow and NO Debt. Just take a look at the accounting shenanigans with many S&P Co's where the Board have borrowed to buy back stock to boost their wallets It is such a short term gain. With rising interest rates they will regret not investing in capital plant & automation. I actually think that there will come a time when the gold price tether is cut and Centamin management will do both buy backs and fat dividends at the same time. Hold onto a gold cash cow we're close to things getting really interesting.

Cowichan good call. Many of the major PM co's balance sheets are still red from their hubristic late 2000's buys with new issued shares and are now saddled with huge debt and in many cases cancelled projects. CEY's position is very advantageous for when PM miners start getting really sought after by managed money. The subset of midsize PM miners that are debt free, with rising prod, rising divi and poised for geographical diversification is very small. Expand through cash flow or be taken over by a major (at a fair price) - both are good options for investors. These exceptional qualities should ensure outsized performance for the likes of CEY when institutional money managers move back in to miners as a safe haven. The order of investment preference and timing by money managers in PM miners is likely to be : stage 1 : buy up the market leaders and top quality miners with best metrics and lowest risk and hold for capital growth and rising diviidends. stage 2 : Investors who missed the top quality co's at low prices. Now attracted to the rest of the producers including the indebted co's, on a "rising tide lifts all boats theme" stage 3 : Perhaps a year into the move will see managed money take 10%-20% profits from stage 1 and 2 Co's to reinvest in late stage cycle high risk penny share explorers. Arguably stage 1 has started for the smart money investors. Will the new Fed Chairman's first FOMC meeting in mid March or the launch of the Petro/Yuan be the catalyst ?Or will a proper correction in general equities lead investors back to gold ?

We're in a holding pattern. The manipulators bombed the GDX and GDXJ ETF's to keep gold miners from breaking out which had the intended effect of stalling the Dec/Jan momentum. I don't think CEY can go down much (holders for the divi) but it won't break out on the upside until the majority gold scorners finally consider it as a safe haven they need to have. We're still awaiting the fear catalyst that suddenly kicked in in 2008's equities slump. Last week's squall was not sufficiently large to get major investors worried and actively looking for contrarian alternatives like PM's. Next week is Chinese Lunar New Year holiday which always dampens physical gold demand.But if last year is any guide CEY rose 7p +4.43% on the last day of the holiday Thurs 2/2/17. So we should watch the price action on Thurs 22/2. In March we have the first Fed Interest rate decision under the new Chairman and on 23/3 the expected launch of the Petro Yuan. Add in the now constant pressure that the Comex exchange for physical contracts has put on an already very tight LBMA.We might not have long to wait for some fireworks especially as the recent gold and silver action feels to me like a spring coiling. Patience will be rewarded.

Acacia Mining scrapped their FY divi today after profits were hit by the Tanzanian export ban of last year. Centamin and Randgold all round quality and solid dividend yield will likely make them first choice for the sector rotation into PM's when the general equities tremors of last week turns into something more consequential.

It was penciled in for today 18/1/18. But I can't find any article confirming start of trading in Shanghai this morning. It will be a very important new driver for gold when it is launched.

Hi Market. I think we're on the same page. It's so difficult to forecast change when we are psychologically programmed to assume past is prologue. Hence all the biggest winners are the contrarians who dared to think of alternative outcomes eg. Soros and GBP; the Big Short hedge fund winners in the 2008 crisis. They took on the consensus and were proved right. Are we now close to a tipping point of gold price control ? Why have the Chines and Russians been buying so much physical gold if they are just going to vault it and accept US paper PM price suppression forever ? That makes no sense. Once they have bought enough at suppressed prices there is likely to be a move to free price discovery whereby the physical market now dominated by China, Russia and India are the price setters. The oil market is the biggest commodity market in the world. The PetroYuan is (possibly) launching on 18/1 and apparently offering a Yuan to gold conversion. That will increase pressure on the all ready v tight physical market. Also at some stage the musical chairs being played by Comex and LBMA with the exchange for physical contracts will come unstuck. Trump is on collision course for a trade war with China. China has many financial weapons to use apart from no longer buying US Treasuries as reported 10/1 by Bloomberg. If China put a bid in of $2000 or more for gold overnight that would end the paper market price rigging at a stroke. It would also give the gold related PetroYuan strength and the PBOC's gold assets would help alleviate their on book liabilities. My guess it will happen it's just a question of when.

Thank you for all of your help over the last 5 years. This blog won't be the same or as good without your input. Best of luck for the future and I hope that you have tucked a few CEY shares away for the investment journey ahead.

Rebess that is the date given in multiple sources. But of course China could just as easily postpone it without comment. A wait and see but it will create waves whenever it gets rolled out.

Today's 5.7% share price rise was the best in 14 months since 9/11/16. It only managed to close 3 times with rises of 5% or more in the whole of 2017 (+5.07% 13/4/17, +5.23% 13/3 and +5.37% 27/1/17). Let's hope that 2018 shapes up more like 2016 when the share enjoyed 16 trading days with gains of 6% or more. The setup is encouraging : CEY beating forecasts, a solid divi payer with no debts and lots of development potential near and W.Af. The macroeconomics of rising commodity prices signalling rising inflation and gold once again being looked at as a good inflation hedge after 5 years of scorn by herd acting investment managers. Add in the Petro Yuan launch on 18/1 which could give the dollar another nudge down and still very cheap producer gold miners begin to look essential in a debt and risk filled world of today. Oh and there's Trump and rocket boy! Smart money has been buying precious metals and the quality miners through the autumn dip. Let's see what the herd do if the S&P finally has that long overdue 5% or more correction.We're now 387 days since the last S&P 5% correction. The all time record was 396 days...just 9 more to go.

Good news. Progress. I have just had an email reply from Craig at L.S.E. to thank me for "bringing this to our attention and they will request that the site developers update the name from Centamin Egypt to the correct Centamin as quickly as possible.

spot64 it is only a few diehards like this platform which keep the old name, presumably because they didn't see the RNS. I've pointed this out before. Centamin Egypt changed its name to Centamin plc with an RNS on 30/12/11.