Member Info for Marmot74

Hi Kums, this is my first PUR post after taking a holding in November at 134p. With reference to your 200p target by first pour I was thinking along the same lines:
I noted how since 7/5/20 PUR has had three well defined stair step moves higher that each last about one month and have added between 56% and 76% from support to new high:
Step 1: from 7/5 48.5p low to 9/6/20 85p high +75% support to new high
Step 2: 16/6 75p low to 13/7 132p high +76%
Step 3: 11/8 104.5p low to 13/7 163p high +56%

I would suggest that we have now started Step 4 and if it follows the previous one month duration pattern it may reach the high around 25/12 or when first pour is confirmed. If one takes a more conservative +50% uplift on this step that is a minimum of 180p target.

Step 4 : 25/11 120p low to 25/12 ? 180- 200p by first pour

Onwards and upwards.

Good to see CEY and gold now perking up and Bubba Horowitz of Kitco's Trader Talk now long gold having traded short since 12/8. However one ominous dark cloud for the London market and gold stocks is the impact of a Brexit deal or no deal.

It wouldn't surprise me if the LSE has a one or two day panic sell off if a "no deal" Brexit happens. I will personally use it as an opportunity to buy on exceptional weakness. If on the other hand there is a workable deal agreed then I believe we will see a relief rally for the stock market, and for Sterling. But "risk on" general stocks might well benefit rather more than "risk off assets" like gold equities.

Get through the potential outcome of a Brexit "no deal" and the next couple of months have plenty of gold positive catalysts: a new President ?, further weakening of US$, much more US stimulus, and a dovish Fed holding rates at zero. Q1 2021 is looking very gold positive.

The US equivalent of our Brexit storm cloud is of course the outcome of the Presidential election. Has Biden won fairly ? Will the Supreme Court be called on to judge ? If Trump stays he'll have to stimulate to help the US avoid a depression. And they have still not hit peak Covid. Vaccines for the US are weeks if not months away.

If there is no change and Biden is installed then a Biden splurge of money printing is potentially only 2 months away! Then gold stocks will have a hare to chase.

US November Non Farm Payrolls are due out at 13.30 today and the consensus forecast is dire: +478,000 jobs compared to October's +638,000 jobs. The upward momentum has stalled. This at a time when the US has yet to see the peak of it's second COVID wave and there are 10m who will lose unemployment benefits by end Dec at the same time as the eviction moratorium ends.
The banking cartel are still $30bn net short Comex paper contracts despite a $339 gold price pullback and options premium profits on the decline. Usually they wack gold on NFP day with waterfall sales to try to support equities and dollar investments.
But if the cartel sell more paper gold contracts today to suppress prices they risk being required to find and deliver more physical gold in the live month of December. And seasonally December to February are strong gold months.

I know how you feel. CEY the most annoying share on the stock market!! Enjoy your Guinness, I hope its a cold one.

As a patient investor I am also an opportunistic trader when the price is right. I decided to buy today and I will tell you why.

Last year on the December Comex options expiry day both CEY and gold bottomed. Today is December Comex gold option expiry. So I have taken a trading position buying Centamin today separate from my long term investment holding.
Now I will wait and see whether my next Guinness is for commiseration or joy.

US $ Index's latest rally attempt petered out on Wednesday 11/11 at 93.17. That is good for gold.
On back of excessive stock market "risk on" reaction to the Covid vaccine news gold hit 3 month low on Wed 11/11 of $1863.90. But once again as with September's drawdown the support at $1850 held. Today gold may be indicating that the 3 month healthy backfilling could be approaching an upside breakout. As of this afternoon's gold rally half of Mondays $83 drop has now been recovered.
The vaccine boost and US stocks at new record highs mean that downside surprises could shock and stop out the overextended and over leveraged. That is precisely why gold and now cheap miners are the best hedge here.
The Indian harvest has been very good which will benefit gold buying and Diwali and frustrate the paper gold price suppressors.
Since March Comex has become a reluctant but increasingly important physical gold delivery exchange. The Comex December contract is about to face another round of delivery demands. But what has changed is that the cartel are no longer working collectively to heavily short every rally. Hence the gold price once again approaches $1900.
The most hopeful sign isn't that the gold consolidation is likely approaching a breakout it is that 30 banks are net $39bn short paper Comex gold and silver contracts and they can no longer get the prices low enough to get out even. To sell more short now just increases their liabilities.

Centamin needs a sentiment boost to get the algos thirsty. A licence award would be timely just as gold and miners are on the turn upwards.

Siko, thank you for a timely update and I am glad to hear you were able to buy some while the price is on sale. Each cycle has to reach excess and we must be close to a selling climax here now at this modest price. Any positive news from the auction and we could get a slingshot move.
Bring it on.

Those that wish CEY had been taken over by Endeavour may have added to this afternoon's slump.
Reuters report out 10.30 am US Eastern time
https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-11-10/Gold-miner-Endeavour-Mining-in-merger-talks-with-Teranga.html

I took the opportunity late this afternoon to climb over the towels and through the blood and buy with the 10% cash I have held back for an outside/exceptional opportunity to buy more on the cheap. I judged that this was such an opportunity.

Time will tell whether it is foolish or wise but I am reassured that it is "cheap" as we closed today 10p down year to date and 12p down on share price close on day of Endeavour approach 3/12/20.

As the Frank Holmes and Bob Moriarty podcast said on 5/11/20 noted the best management teams have 6 key attributes,
and the first 5 are: a vision; transparency; a strong track record; a profit mindset; expertise. I would argue that Martin Horgan fits the bill on what we know so far and has investor goodwill.
But as yet he has not yet met the 6th attribute of the best precious metal mine Directors: buy shares in the company you run. Martin Horgan has not yet invested his own money to buy Centamin shares.

Now is a good opportunity Martin.

Tiger thank you. I am an optimist for CEY if Horgan's team proactively makes the most of the company's advantages in a rising gold price environment. Today the sentiment fort CEY is bombed out. Investors, whether institutional or retail want both hope and progress.
Bad news often comes in threes. Investors still have to deal with the volatility which is likely soon to hit us from US 2nd wave of Covid impact on US economy and market and US election. As Jim Rickards has said " markets have not priced in a no clear winner result".
But any stock market sell-off induced by US events will likely see gold and gold miners then rally into the end of the year.

But before that we might need to brace for impact.

If you have held CEY shares for 10 years you will certainly have earned those gold flip flops the hard way. One country and one mine and 1.2bn of issued shares just amplifies each and every one of the CEY share price smack downs.

The waste slippage is a good analogy for CEY management complacency since Pardey became CEO in January 2015. Lots of senior management appointments, some for only a few months, lots of share options granted. But where have these specialists and their free share incentives got us ? The Court case, Sukari expansion, 600,000 oz production, W.African expansion. Between 2016 and today we've marked time when CEY should be striding ahead and building far and wide by now with a world class asset and $350m cash and no debt.

Martin Horgan sounds like the CEO we need to jump start the CEY engine. Otherwise why not just distribute the $350m cash and put the company up for sale? I assume Horgan took the job as CEO in April because he sees the great potential here.
The time for more studies, deliberation is ending. The market and the share price drubbing is telling us that.

For each report from now on Horgan needs to deliver an action plan for as many of these issues as possible in 2021.
Cash. $345m when are we going to use it ? Use it or lose it to an asset stripper takeover. Endeavour was the first warning shot.
Sukari. update on expansion & resource and reserves. Where has the optimism gone for "600,000 oz p.a soon..."
Solar. Institutional investors love green tech and it helps show the company is modern and tech responsive to cost cutting.
New Egypt licence. Let's hope so. But it might be good to bring in a JV partner like Barrick or Newmont ? If CEY did perhaps we could advance 2nd mine in Egypt and W.Af at same time.
W.Africa. What value from 6 year investment ? 3m oz gold implied resource apparently? Sell it on in a rising gold price market or produce a mine plan in 2021.
Dividend. At least guarantee 4c Divi (cost $46m) to match the total 2019 divis of 10c. Ideally, be brave and spend $69m of cash for a 6c divi to total 12c for year, up 2c from 2019 10c as reward to long suffering institutional and retail investors. The share price has yet to deliver meaningful capital growth. Consider that CEY closed out 2010 at 176.4p and last year at 127p.
CEO Horgan. Align yourself with institutional and retail shareholders and buy a meaningful holding. All the admired gold mine leaders have substantial personal investments in their own company (e.g. Sprott, Lassonde, McEwan, Neumeyer ).

Hi Rebess, I don't want you to miss the fun. The Centamin website posts the Q3 Qtr Report on Wed 21/10/20.

and Martin Horgan ? No bargain hunting first share purchases from our CEO. I think he missed both a bargain and a PR opportunity to help rebuild sentiment and confidence.

Hi Mr Tibbles,

My opinion remains the same : Trump could and should have ordered it in January 2017. But that would have changed all the US financial control levers from the Fed and Wall St banks to the US Treasury and the White House.

The newly elected President with all of his baggage was with hindsight very unlikely to be a force for real change. He is Deutsche bank's largest private debtor and he has a long standing dispute with the IRS over a $100m rebate, never mind the sleazy strippers etc. Trump was easy to control. His chance of draining the swamp and making radical changes were probably zero from the start.

Instead he managed to make the US economy as indebted as his own finances. The US balance sheet now has trillions of dollars off balance sheet. The manipulation of markets and data which he complained loudly about before he was elected...has continued with a vengeance. It is the only reason he appointed Goldman Sachs creature Mnuchin as Treasury Sec.

Don't expect change from Biden. He is a creature of corporate America he'll follow orders. He won't audit the gold either.

It is undoubtedly true that the rise in the gold price is signalling investor distrust of devaluing currencies and overvalued paper assets. if a leading politician were to proclaim gold now they would be admitting the real mess the world economy is in. But gold will force it's way to attention either through the dollar's devaluation or US inflation taking off.

So the best performing asset of the 21st century continues it's stealth rally with only 0.5% of investment assets in any gold or silver investment. That will change as the debt and money printing pot boils over. Then there will be a gold rush.

Note how CFO Ross Jerrard's modest 15k purchase was actually made on 5/10 and probably could have been announced with the RNS yesterday for Jim Rutherford's purchase. Does that mean they have stage managed a series of buys and that we should expect a first purchase by Martin Horgan this week ?
The statement of Jerrard's total ordinary shares holding could be more transparent by listing them including now vested (prior share options) as a subset.

In the new Centamin website under the section : Shareholder information it lists the top 6 largest Institutional shareholders. But notably it does not state the total holdings retained by Sami and Josef El Raghy. Including the total holdings of management and senior executives is standard practice with many other publicly traded companies.

Gold mining is about taking calculated risk. The best way for management to attract new investors to Centamin is as the American phrase has "for the chefs to eat their own cooking".

So my message to Martin Horgan is lead by example and make your first major purchase, this is a great entry price.

Prof,
Thanks for your kind words. Hopefully Martin Horgan will follow the precedent of Harry Michael the CEO in 2011 who on appointment bought 1m shares at around 110p a share. That was a firm statement that he was aligned with shareholders and believed in Centamin.
I think it is important to know what kind of trader investor you are and stick to it. I don't have the panache like you and Sotolo to buy as the price recovered out of the March sell off. I am definitely an investment tortoise.
I believe that the US election the Fed and macro economic factors will soon see CEY share price trending higher. I remember reading months ago that Sotolo wants to get enough profits to build a house. That's great and his dream inspires me too.

We longterm holders are becoming like some Amish community...we struggle together but collectively it should be worth it in the end.

Thank you Jim for buying 100k shares.

When is Martin Horgan going to make his first share purchase ? Selling Toro made him a rich man. He has already been granted 590,000 share options of 590,000. Why not take that to a round 1m and buy 410,000 shares Martin ? But shouldn't the CEO be "Uber alles" other Directors ? Well Martin you've got some catching up to do...

CFO Ross Jerrard has now accumulated 1.26m share options. Ross why not top up 240,000 now to take it to 1.5m ?

Hello it's been a while. I finally completed my CEY long term holding this morning. I have been waiting to pull the trigger since May but never got the pullback bargain price I wanted. My rule for my investment portfolio is to wait for the price to come to me. My strategy is that one needs a"margin of safety" purchase price to minimise your capital risk with the inevitable setbacks of mining.
Why did I buy this morning ? Of the 11 examples of more than a 6% decline over the last two years 7 started recovering the day after. In March the recovery from the stock market crash began 6 days later. The exception was the 25/2/19 -28.4% drop which flattened sentiment and scared away buyers for 14 weeks.
The optics of the on site General Manager selling free share options a month before the RNS is galling. In my opinion if CEO Martin Horgan were now to announce that he has purchased 0.5-1m shares with his own money to align himself with investors. One of the common attributes of the most successful gold mine company entrepreneurs is that they have made substantial personal share purchases. Martin now is a good time to buy big.

US March Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) due 13.30 today. Last Thursday 26/3 US Initial first time jobless came in at a record 3.28m, and brought home to some people that the economic battle is just beginning and it is going to be long and hard.

Today's NFP could report a staggering 10% to 20% US unemployment. That's from record low unemployment in February!

Over the next couple of months the data will likely get worse. The length of the virus activity and lockdown will determine whether we have a nasty recession for a few quarters or a 1930's style depression.

We've had a bounce off the selling fatigue bottom of 23/3 but a number of well respected hedge fund managers note that we have not yet seen the "capitulation" bottom for the stock market in the US yet. Perhaps the coming tidal wave of terrible data and Q1 earnings downgrades in April will lead to the the capitulation.

In April with a stream of terrible data incoming it seems plausible that there will be a re-test of the 23/3 DJ low of 18,214 and S&P 2192 and one final plunge and selling climax clear-out. European markets will take their cue from the US.

Hang on Centamin holders we may have one more storm to endure before discussing dividend growth and earnings upgrades going forward with new vigorous management.

bobliz35 you might find the attached podcast interview of Martin Horgan ex-CEO of Toro of interest.

His CV and the way he talks in this interview encourages me to believe that we have potentially now got the right man to develop the full potential of Centamin.
I will be even more convinced that he is the right man if over the next few months he buys say 500k to 1m shares with his own money (as all the other leading gold mining entrepreneurs do) to show institutional and retail clients that he has real skin in the game and we are all in it together.

https://omny.fm/shows/dig-deep-the-mining-podcast/dd-55

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-23/Endeavour-strikes-deal-to-acquire-SEMAFO-in-C-1-billion-transaction.html