Member Info for Marmot74

It is terrible that there has been an attack and 4 people are missing. But it is not the first attack on Iamgold's convoys to their mine in the far NW of B.F. right next to the Mali and Niger border area. A policeman was killed in the last attack in September.

In contrast Centamin's Batie West project (that up for sale)Centamin is in the far opposite SW part of B.F 290km SW of the capital and adjacent to the Cote D'Iv and Ghana borders.

On a read across for other miners with West African mines/projects. Report out that Canadian Co Iamgold convoy in Burkina Faso was attacked today by Islamic terrorists.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/canadian-mining-firm-iamgold-convoy-attacked-west-africa

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-10-25/B2Gold-to-sell-its-Burkina-Faso-gold-projects-to-West-African-Resources.html

Agree with your Centamin viewpoint. This sunday is the 50th (Golden) Anniversary of President Richard Nixon's "temporary" closure of the gold window. Holding physical gold and silver and historically undervalued gold miners today allows us to be our own central bank for the inevitable great debt reset to come. The IMF is calling for a new Bretton Woods agreement. The drum beats are getting louder by the week...

The US petro dollar is dying as a control mechanism and buyer of US debt. The scorn from OPEC in response to Biden's demand for increased production this week confirms this. China and increasingly India are the primary commodity buyers and their toleration of Western banker rentier practices to control markets and prices via paper markets is now being increasingly challenged.

Note how it has only taken 4 days for the paper gold price to recover from the -$100 paper gold price slam down on Globex on Sunday night 8/8. The cartel banks need sellers so that they can buy back their $30bn+ paper gold short book. But at $1670-1700 they were met with a cohort of bargain hunting buyers. The banks will have to start buying their paper shorts back they haven't got another 6 months to engineer another waterfall smash. As of 1/1/22 Basel 3 will be in force.

A reckoning is coming and hiding out in cheap hard asset gold miners is as good a place as any while they are still on sale.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/questor-either-gold-price-miner-160813454.html

Well done for hanging in there. Over the last two days 35m shares changed owner. Not yours or mine or most on this blog.
Investing in gold miners is the very definition of climbing a wall of worry. If you have a fair entry price and no leverage and lots of patience it can be very rewarding. But on the way you are put to the test to say the least. Hold on better days are coming.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-mint-delays-silver-shipments-due-global-silver-shortage

My guess is that they and their acolytes will be somewhat disappointed on Friday afternoon and probably hoped for a bigger follow through decline and anticipated that today's BIS gold swaps and options expiry would add to the downward pressure. But the BIS hit on gold at lunchtime taking the price down $14.5 lasted only an hour before the price made an impressive surge back to unchanged.

Comex will be closed for the bank holiday on Monday which increases the chance of gold rising to start the new week and month. Gold is on course to close up for 5th month in a row and back to unchanged for the year. The key gold miner ETF GDX set a new high for the year at $40 this Wednesday.

Centamin will have better days and weeks to come. Have a good bank holiday everyone.

They're now bankers and analysts.
Perhaps we were getting too complacent with the share price slowly drifting up for the last 3 weeks. We were due a Centamin banana skin. Yet to put this into perspective today's price drop is only the second of more than 4% in 2021. At the same stage last year we had had 17 >4% sell-offs and that was 4 months before the pit wall RNS !
It is a fact that bankers, brokers and analysts don't signal their real intentions, after all they want to make money for themselves not you or I.
As a long term holder Centamin has an uncanny habit of having positive news or momentum colide with a black swan event. The Company RNS got knocked off by the 82p headline. Make the target price outlandishly low to maximise the catch. 82p was the ATH way back in 2008 before the mine was producing. The share price hasn't traded down there since Feb 2016.
Note also that Liberum use a gold price which is already 5% below the current gold price and make no reference to the fact that a rising gold price and even a revaluation of fiat currencies would change all their assumptions.

I don't hold much value in broker ref's but Berenberg's have tended to reflect the mood and sentiment of the share price well for the last 18 months. Their last one 22/4 was Buy and raised target from 126p to 131p.

For my part gold, silver and their miners are likely to do well over the next few months. Today's tree shake just gives investors a cheaper entry price.

50% of US investment now goes into ETF's. Last Friday the GDX, the largest PM miner ETF (which CEY is a constituent of) closed the week at 37.40 the highest weekly close year to date.
Currently GDX is at 37.63 setting up a new higher weekly close for the year. GDX is building up for an assault on the 5/1/21 YTD high of 39.00. It could be tested next week.

A good week of consolidation for hard asset alternatives to overpriced US stocks, property and bombed out bonds. It will take a while for general investors to rotate into the gold space but inflation always works as a catalyst. Eventually.

Lots of damning revelations about the behaviour of the gold and silver paper markets just underlines how desperate they and the bullion banks are. Comex gold and silver have had waterfall selling every day this week but the bid soon comes back. They must be having nightmares about how do they close out their enormous gold paper shorts especially if the wafer thin silver physical balance breaks. Silver investors are calling the Comex and LBMA bluff.

Gold, GDX and gold miner 8 month downtrend is now over and a few new investors are now coming in. If the trends for inflation and the USDI also continue then gold and silver will likely be set up for some upside surprises. After an 8 month sector downtrend there is considerable latent energy to explode first with a relief rally and secondly due to sector rotation.

I think silver could fire up this neglected hard asset haven from rising inflation as the everything else bubble starts to deflate.
Hold and buy on pullbacks.

Today the LBMA reported that "accounting errors" caused them to overstate their silver holding by 3,300 tonnes (96,251,100 oz). Bear in mind that to hold off a potential delivery default in March the LBMA calmed the market by announcing that they had added 118 m. oz physical silver. Yet it now appears that all but 22m oz of that addition was imaginary ! So nothing to see here it was just an accounting error ? What does this do for confidence and credibility of the paper PM markets and the regulators ?

In an age of rising inflation for all to see in the US and depreciating fiat currencies investors are now competing hard with industrial buyers for every silver physical ounce. Comex gold deliveries are also running at a record rate as investors seek to protect their capital with hard asset insurance with no counter part risk. Mining shares now braking out of their multi month downtrend reflects rising interest and accumulation.

The stresses in the paper PM markets now seems to be producing cumulative damage to their paper control mechanism. What will be the next catalyst ? Tomorrow we get the latest US inflation data. US momentum and tech stocks are stalling which usually leads to a move into risk off assets like PM's. Is the next Comex delivery and Basel 3 the final straws ? The Basel 3 Net stable Funding ratio requirements starts 27/6/21.

Recent bias makes us believe we can forecast the likely near future from the recent past. What if today's LBMA admission is really telling us that the paper shell game is almost up ?

the higher precious metals will rise. Ultimately they are going to be hoisted by their own petards. Since the Feb delivery scare on Comex all the key manipulators have been caught out trying to mislead, deceive or lie and it is all on record. I'm talking about CME, Goldman Sachs, the CFTC and the Perth Mint. The LBMA has helpfully set out in their latest Report that "should another social media (retail silver) buying frenzy occur, higher prices would almost certainly be triggered, which would be met by heavy selling".

Consider what Bubba Horowitz wrote on Kitco 27/4 "whether or not the precious metals are manipulated, they still go through the price discovery process." That is classic obfuscation. The process of free price discovery is impossible in the precious metals markets precisely because because of unlimited short selling that magically appears overnight. As such gold and silver are the only commodities where a synthetic paper price dictates the physical price.

The manipulators don't like being questioned and they really don't want to deliver real bullion. I urge everyone to follow wallstreetsilver on Reddit and buy some silver bars or coins and see if we can break their game.

Physical gold and silver, producer gold miners and cryptos. Because at some point all the carefully crafted perception management and market manipulation will unravel. Signs that we are close are the US stock indices struggling to drive higher.

Yet at these heady valuations one group, the "smart" money is selling stocks at a record rate while the not so smart risk on gamblers have taken on a record amount of margin debt. Thanks to QE $560bn has made its way into the US markets over the last 5 months. That is more than the total for the last 12 years.

In the lead up to the start of May Comex silver deliveries the cartel and their allies have shown by their words and actions that they are very worried about losing control. Only desperate underwater shorts would sell more to try to reduce deliveries. CME's Jeffrey Christian has labelled the Reddit Wallstreetsilver followers as "idiots" for buying physical silver to challenge the cartel. J
So if you haven't bought any physical silver yet now is the ideal time to start. This Saturday 1/5 is the 10 year anniversary of the rigged takedown of silver in 2011.

At some stage owning hard and alternative assets without counter party risk is going to be the most popular and therefore hard to get investments. Right now no one wants gold mine shares. I can wait. Mean reversion will come.

Cowichan how about Sib-Still go for B2gold, a 1m gold oz p.a producer operating in Namibia, Mali ,Burkina F, Colombia and the Philippines. Market cap CAN$ 6.25bn. Harmony is a non starter as they operate in S Af.
Do you think Endeavour will be in their sights ? That could give Sawiris a clean exit to be cash ready for his next gold mine move.

Thanks Arfur for an interesting and thought provoking post yourself. I would point out that where it may figure as the worst Q1 for the suppressed paper gold price that was not the case for the physical market.

US Mint best Q1 for gold Eagles coins since 1999, and best Q1 for silver Eagles since 2016.
Perth Mint Q1 best Q on record for gold, 4th highest Q for silver.
Indian gold demand came roaring back in March to a record 471 tonnes
Comex which ideally doesn't want to deliver anything more than the bare minimum is now having to deliver record amounts. Comex has become a delivery vehicle for big investors. For the moment they are managing to scrabble and cope. But the May silver contract is a big one and that could be a real test later this month.

So all of those bombing raids selling huge volume in the lightly traded overnight before Europe opens through March was to keep the pressure on potential gold and silver bargain hunters to keep out. And to allow the bullion banks to take huge profits buying back some of their gold shorts put on since Aug high into the double bottom at $1680 in March. The added bonus of this artificial suppression is that the weaker price then saw GLD ETF etc generate a 107.4 tonne outflow of gold in March. And the bullion banks then picked up the cheap physical. Wash rinse repeat. That is why they hate the Gamestop, Robinhood and Reddit attention because it shone a light on their cosy deals that only benefit them.

The banks problem now is that gold is off 20% from the high and is relatively cheap and bargain hunters are about. At these levels the banks can't dive-bomb the Comex paper market after they have just managed to cut their exposure. Meanwhile the real asset which they have hypothecated to crazy levels has major problems meeting physical demand.

As to silver it's a tiny physical market with enormous industrial and rising investor demand. If the banks try and take silver down to $22-$23 I think they will set off a tidal wave of retail buying which will likely overwhelm their cosy setup.

Like I say I am encouraged by the outlook for Centamin and pm's.

Centamin can't get out of the dark cellar without a change of sentiment to the sector and to the leverage key gold. So gold currently at $1755 the highest since 25/2 is encouraging. Attached to gold the GDX ETF is making a positive patterned at 34.62 is now at highest level intraday for 7 weeks. Centamin will take it's cue from GDX and GDXJ as a constituent of both.

A weekly gold close above $1745 would be highest week close in 6 weeks with next target $1800 last above 7 weeks ago 24/2. GDX first target is to close above 34.50 which starts to make the Feb - Mar trading look like a reverse head and shoulders pattern: Left S. 19/2 32.74 Head 30.90 1/3 Right S. 31.83 30/3. Real resistance for GDX is at 36.00 which we haven't closed above for 10 weeks 20/1/21 when Centamin closed at 123p.

Encouraging signs for a recovery path for gold and gold miners. But with the general US stock market indices at or near all time highs the sentiment is worryingly complacent. The S&P Index sentiment has a reading of 90 (out of 100) and the VIX volatility Index is at 9 suggesting little investor fear right now.

My reading is that the markets calm progress is concealing extreme fragility. The Fed is trying to talk confidently yet is a prisoner in their own trap of more money printing and zero interest rates. Biden's solution of more debt fuelled spending will give a short term sugar rush. Then watch out.

Overall seems like a good time to own contrary hard assets like physical gold, silver,cryptos and quality gold miners.

Holding gold stocks in a price slump is difficult. Adding to holdings is nerve-racking knowing that one will have to wait it out and no guru or technical analysis can forecast it. Marketsniper Francis Hunt on Youtube summed it up well "you are wrong, wrong,wrong,wrong...and then suddenly very right to be invested in quality gold miners".

Have we now found a bottom from which buyers will start to outbid the sellers ? Some signs are encouraging. The GDX today is at a 7 week high. GDX is critical to CEY investors as the majority of gold stocks investors just buy the ETF rather than the individual shares . If GDX can breakout above $36 it may well confirm the end of the 8 month pullback and the end of the recent scorn for the sector.

The bullion banks did not waterfall sell gold and silver to close March. The Archgos hedge fund margin call just underlined the inherent risk with all of the derivatives for the large banks. Basel 3 is now only 12 weeks away. April is a key delivery month for silver so it could be another catalyst for investors to get involved in precious metals again.

As one of the ew investment sectors which is cheap gold miners are just waiting to be in demand. Once some buy others will follow. Maybe today is an early indicator of interest.

The attached chart shows that our Cinderella sector actually stacks up as best in class comparing operating margins/PE ratios in 2020. I expect more investors to buy some physical precious metals or some cheap mine stocks in the next few months as hard asset insurance against depreciating fiat currencies and overpriced US general stocks.

https://kingworldnews.com/gold-mining-stocks-are-about-to-skyrocket/

A range of opinion is important to get a perspective. I regard this week as a positive step forward for Centamin and it's outlook. The positive viewpoint includes:
CEY best weekly close in 5 weeks
FY results without a new setback. A pleasant change.
Paper gold price into options expiry 25/3 set for a 3 week close higher than 8/3 swing low $1681
Today despite rise in 10Yr T to 1.664 and USDI to 92.71 +0.18 gold held it's own
The squeeze in the physical silver coin/bar market is building and April could surprise us all to the benefit of the whole PM sector.

Have a very good weekend everyone, especially Sotolo. Is it just me or does anyone else read Sotolo's posts and think of Eeyore ? "...don't worry about me. Go and enjoy yourself. I'll stay here and be miserable."

It is good to see co-ordinated Director buying but I am disappointed with the relative purchases of the two most important Directors the CEO and CFO. But the timing of the purchases looks compelling. They have been well advised about Centamin share price cycles.

Statistically over the last 13 years (2009-2021) the year low has been recorded in Qtr1 in 7 years out of 13 and in Qtr4 in 4 years out of 13. So all of us who have been buying since the Nov 2020 price breakdown below 120p are aligned with a good buy price in every year without a production setback RNS (ie May 2018 and Apr 2019).

Are we set fair to now gain from a decent advance that is triggered by a turn in gold or GDX ? Monday's FY results were tidy and well received and took away some nagging doubts about the new team and strategy. Of course there was disappointment that there was no follow through. But the same applied to decent results for Barrick, Endeavour, and others and it's all down to the continued negative sentiment for the sector. But this will end. With the results out of the way Centamin is now well placed for the macro or micro catalysts to trigger the traditional Spring/summer rally. Just like spring 2016 or April-Aug last year.

There is a historic parallel to the Directors buying this week. Back on 21/3/2011 the new Centamin CEO Harry Michael bought 1m shares at 125.85p.

As things stand the CEO and the CFO who run the company have purchased less shares than 3 non execs: Rutherford 250,000 shares; Bankes 220,000 shares, and Dr Fawzy 140,000 shares.

Are Horgan and Jerrard going to buy more or is that it ?