Member Info for Marmot74

Pardey completely lacks the skillset in front of investors and analysts that Sami and Josef had.

If Pardey is removed (by whom ?) the co would then need to fill two vital posts :a strong Chairman to lead an ambitious strategy with the fantastic assets that the company has; and a personable, persuasive dynamic CEO who can work with staff and investors to build the best diversified miner. Pardey comes across to me as out of his comfort zone explaining and selling the company to investors.

I really hope that the El-Raghy's are part of Chairman selection process to ensure their legacy will thrive and demand change from the current Board where necessary for the good of all Centamin stakeholders.

Might a new Chairman remove Pardey ?

Picket a daily volume comparison after an RNS is irrelevant I'm afraid. After the 25/5 RNS we had 65m shares traded in total over three days. After the 9/7 Q2 production and new FY guidance the vol was 20.5m. This flush out will probably take several days to complete.

Yet is gold a potential support here ? Gold $1204.8 +5.10 +0.43% on a Friday after NFP. Where is the cartel smack down we've come to expect ? If the cartel banks don't sell to keep gold down then the hedge fund record shorts will have to bid the price up just to get out. Watch gold closely.

GDX ETF opened +.60% trading 18.86

When CEY hit it s low close of 86.26p 11/9 all gold shares were in decline and GDX closed 17.57 that day. GDX is now trading 7.3% up from that closing level.

Sept US Non farm payrolls report missed expectations of +180k new jobs with a print of 134k. NFP Friday each months often used to wack Comex paper gold before the announcement. Right now spot gold $1203.5 and Dec Comex gold price $1207 +5.40 +0.45%.

It will be interesting to see what GDX does when it opens at 14.30. Close last night 18.79. If GDX rises with the gold price that may well help CEY price to find a bottom.

Firstly well said Siko.

Dasut thanks for your excellent mining perspective. As those of us who have invested in a number of natural resources companies over the years today's RNS does not come as a great surprise. Mining is not precise and mine grade forecasting likewise particularly after a poor grade setback. But September's 48,511 oz production is encouraging and in line with the run rates achieved in Q3 2016,Q3 2017 and Q4 2017.

it is possible that we get a gold price spike in Q4 and then the higher achieved gold sale price will mitigate higher costs. As of September 2018 the average monthly gold price Yr on Yr is $1275 vs $1261 up to Sept 2017. Will a short covering rally be triggered by the hedge funds trying to get out of their record paper gold shorts by December ?

And what about a black swan event to trigger a gold rally:
a Trump miscalculation (potential list is long)
US China trade war turning nasty. China to limit/stop rare earth exports ?
Italian bank or Deutsche bank default ?
A 10% US stock market correction long overdue. In H1 2016 the last correction CEY share price rising 200% to 180p.
End of sugar rush from US tax cuts and reality check of gigantic debt. US bond market loss of confidence
chaos in US whoever gains seats in Congress midterm elections 6/11.

Cowichan thank you, excellent data mining once again.

Do you see a pattern. The C.Galbraith report you posted noted the problems the major miners had between 2011 and 2016 with mis-allocation of capital and destruction of shareholder value and a flat gold price.

Centamin is one of the lowest cost producers today and a likely beneficiary if the gold price stays in this range. The management developed the Sukari mine on time and on budget while dealing with problems not of their making : two revolutions, strikes ,shortages and court cases. Yet Sukari is now the 20th largest gold mine in the world and Centamin has well advanced W.Af exploration, no debt and $300m cash to invest for growth.

If the Barrick-randgold merger really is the catalyst for money managers and general investors to re-consider the sector, despite the production cut in Q2 Centamin is a best in class company which isundervalued and under owned. But for how much longer? Sector rotation anyone ?

Mining is tough and none mores than gold mining. The rationale for the proposed Barrick-Randgold merger illustrates many of the challenges even for the largest and best financed. Today Reuters reports on struggling gold miner Avocet. All in Avocet has lost 99.3% of its share price value since it floated at 1200p p share in 2007.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-miner-avocet-hints-possible-063018713.html

Precious metals are the only major sector not in a bubble and thus wildly under-owned and out of favour. This will change and when it does expect investors first to target the high quality miners with a solid cash balance,no debts, and a working development plan. There are very few of these companies and Centamin is one.

Even 20p off the recent low Centamin remains a bargain.

Centamin highest weekly close in 7 weeks.

http://www.centamin.com/~/media/Files/C/Centamin/documents/presentations/CEY%20-%20Corporate%20Presentation%20-%20DGF%20240918_FINAL.pdf

Today 25/9. The contract month is more important for gold than silver. Fed interest rate rise tomorrow now fully priced in but would expect gold to be put under some pressure before the rate announcement 'comme d'habitude'.

It's safe to say that this deal is not exactly loved by the analysts.

The winners:
Barrick's accountants. Barrick get gold assets and RRS cost control skill set for no cash outlay.
Randgold directors get control and status and perks as CEO and CFO of world no.1 gold co.
GDX investors. The ETF includes both companies. Now trading back above 19.00 for the first time since gold hit a low of $1161 15/8
Acacia shareholders. Now trading 128.2p +37% from 2.5 year low of 14/9. Acacia 64% Barrick owned. Bristow to sort out Acacia ?
Shandong Gold. FT reports today that they are a silent partner in the deal with a $300m share swap with Barrick. Likely to get some Tanzanian mine share once dispute there resolved ?
Passive funds. Likely to vote for shares in a giant even a slow moving one ?

Losers:
End of Randgold as an independent growing competitor with its share's higher beta price appreciation potential.
The FTSE100 index. Loses liquidity and down to just one major PM miner Fresnillo.
Shareholders sold out for a deal without a premium at the bottom of the gold price cycle. When the gold price rallies the mega miners like Barrick will not achieve the multiple gains of small majors or medium miners like Centamin.

Rebess I take the view that the publicity of a "possible" takeover will be good for raising awareness of the present extreme undervaluation currently in the precious metal sector as a whole. Barrick is on record as saying that their net mine production is in decline and that they need to buy replacement production and resources and reserves as do all the major miners. But is Randgold the right company at the right price right now ?

What kind of offer ?All cash buyout, or an all share takeover or a mix of both ?

What premium will Barrick offer in an "agreed "friendly merger ? A minimum +30-40% on Fri 21/9 close 4923p ? What is Barrick's maximum if it attracts others eg. Newmont making a counter offer ?

Are Randgold's large institutional shareholders onboard or hostile to selling out at this point in the gold price cycle ?

Barrick overpaid for a number of assets in the last gold bull run 2008- 2011 and spent years writing off some costly investment mistakes. Barrick has debt on it's balance sheet and 60% of Acacia. Is this takeover to be funded with more debt or share issue and a dilution of existing long suffering shareholders?

I can see the rationale for Barrick to approach Randgold at today's extreme low valuations and low gold price.What I don't understand is unless the premium is exceptional why would Randgold agree to a merger now ? On the last run up in H1 2016 Randgold share price hit 9265p and it's now 47% below that now.

If Barrick's offer doesn't come in at least in that ballpark wouldn't Randgold's shareholders be better off saying " thanks but no thanks" knowing that the process will likely re-rate the Randgold share price upwards anyway whatever happens to the gold price medium term.

If Randgold, the only pure gold Ftse 100 constituent gets taken out that will provide an attractive goal for the incoming new Chairman of Centamin to aim for. Bring it on ?

Bloomberg.com this evening posted:

Barrick, Randgold in late stage merger talks, according to mining blog incakolanews.blogspot.com, adding "multiple sources have told the desk the deal is on."

Barrick based in Toronto is valued at $12.2bn and Randgold about half that. Andy Lloyd, a spokesman for Barrick, declined to comment.

Apologies, last Friday 14/9, I said it was the ETF re-balancing day and therefore expect a larger than normal day volume. The volume last Friday was 7.3m.

Today's 31.7m confirms the ETF re-balancing was in fact todayIn fact it was today.

Centamin finished with the 2nd largest weekly rise in 20 months, +10.27%. Since the low of nine days ago Centamin is up 21.78 %. Mr Market seems to be telling anyone who will listen that the five month decline was overdone and a welcome bonus for bargain hunters.

Centamin and other miners consolidation continues as does that for gold five weeks after the YTD low of $1161.

With gold at $1203 this morning and the leading GDX ETF closing last night at 18.43, Centamin could justify a price of 97p-98p. However, it seems content to just sit mid 90's for now. Perhaps gold and the miners will remain becalmed until key events next week :

25/9 September Comex options expiry

26/9 Fed Meeting expected +0.25% interest rate rise

Algos don't analyse they simply react and execute. Friday's US economic data was mixed which continues a recent pattern and the markets were very volatile as a result. Is this a sign that the algos are starting to take note ? Is the US recovery and Trump's control of the narrative starting to be questioned and thus the strength of Wall St vs other markets, the dollar, the gigantic US debt and the likely impact of additional tariffs on China ? Then there's the US mid term election coming up in November and a likely fight over the next US Budget.

Into this uncertainty hedge funds have built up record short Comex silver and gold positions while the banks (who never lose) are net long. Morgan Stanley's latest client note is recommended that its clients sell some of their general equities and build a 3-5% position in gold. That is a big deal when you consider that the average US investor only has 0.4% gold exposure. Last week hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio said now is a good time to buy gold and get defensive.

I feel we may be on the cusp of major market gear changes which could benefit gold and Centamin. Patience and fortitude will be rewarded.

Para 2 should read "... if Tuesday's two and a half year lows for CEY and many other miners..."

Last Friday the billionaire gold mine investor Eric Sprott was asked what he would advise the bruised and demoralised gold miner investor in the face of the continuing price slump. He said make sure that you have manageable position for your personality and finances and be patient because the cycle will turn...it always does.

We'll know soon enough just how precient Sprott may have been if Tuesday's half year lows for CEY and many other UK, US and Canadian miners and the ETF's GDX and GDXJ now hold and confirm the end of a 16 week down cycle.

mizolgit put it well in his post last night at 21.25. For long term value investors this pullback is an opportunity to add at a cheap price shares in a profitable debt free miner that will do very well when gold and miners up turn is confirmed.

Centamin's average realised gold sale price for 2017 was $1261 p oz. It was the same for the 8 months Jan-Aug. The 2018 first 8 months average monthly closing spot gold price was $1285. So Centamin may well be able to negate some of the rise in oil costs and we sell have 3.5 months till year end. The gold price hasn't gone below $1161 for 4.5 weeks and looks to be consolidating to test higher. I expect Centamin to respond to gold's move.

Today's total volume is likely to be high because it is the quarterly ETF re-balancing.

mrtibbles I will be very surprised if they stand aside. JPM have never taken a PM trading loss in 6 years and they are now net long when historically they have played the paper PM market from the short side ever since they took over Bear Stearns silver book when the bank collapsed. One thing the bank cartel does not do is sell into price weakness. They seem to have played a blinder here taking profits on their shorts just as the hedge funds have built up record shorts.I wouldn't take much buying to trigger hedge fund stop losses.

Sorry typo at start : should be 3/9/09 not 3/9/08