Member Info for Marmot74

Elprof the production downgrade left a price gap of 20.05p between 139.05p and 159.10p. Between the low of 159.10 on 24/5/18 the day before the RNS and the high trade of 25/5 139.05p.

Another price point of note is 126.44p which is the average price for the range of 2018. It is around that price that a number of brokers have their current price target for Centamin. A re-rating towards 150p should be due soon. Not that any man or machine cares about broker rec's anymore!

Best regards

Having campaigned for President that the stock market was a dangerous bubble Trump is now the bubble blower supreme. It's only a matter of time before hubris meets nemesis.
Timestamp 16.14
DJ -2.58%
S&P -2%
Nasdaq -2.29%

Will Trump instruct Mnuchin to buy the dip again today like was done to Nasdaq yesterday which sparked the algo stampede of short covering ? They did the same on 26/12 with the $64bn of pension fund re-allocation out of bonds into stocks - how convenient that was in the quiet holiday market.

Trump, the Fed and the big corporate share buy backs have all got a lot to answer for. US data gets worse by the day. Interest rates at 2% with the massive debt level is already squeezing the life out of credit liquidity.

If Mr Market soon decides that The Fed and Trump have no solutions then investors will lose confidence in US stocks and the US $.

Centamin has had the best start in 10 years; gold is nudging towards $1300. More investors see the need to have contrary safe haven investments like gold physical or producer shares. As Mark Bristol new CEO of Barrick Group put it in an interview yesterday " the precious metal sector is only $100bn market capital - a tiny sector. What will happen if a few % of investors want in ?

John Rubino is waiting for a challenge of the 5 year gold resistance at $1365 which he thinks will be smashed this year. That could easily set up a run to $1700 gold. That additional $400 would go mostly to gold producers bottom line. Algos and smart investors are starting to believe it's on in 2019.

Gold lost 1.8% in 2018, the first down year since 2015 but compared to many sectors that was a good. Encouragingly while major stock insides got hammered in December gold rallied +4.8%, the best one month performance since January 2017.

Barrick Group including merged Randgold starts trading on NYSE under the symbol "GOLD" today. I am hoping the launch will generate follow through interest for Centamin and the gold mine sector at the start of the new year. That would give the miners a boost to catch up with gold's recent rally.

Poor China manufacturing data today and a failed Italian bank have put Asian and European general stocks very much on the back foot to start the new year. Yet despite the rise in US$ index gold and LSE gold miners are all positive as Centamin as the new senior pure gold play leads at +2.88% at 111.90p.

This morning's RNS stating that J.El-Raghy was staying on as Non-Exec Chairman until the right candidate is identified seems a sensible decision for a company and a sector with a lot of potential developments in 2019.

GDX ETF closed 31/12 at 21.09 the highest close since 3/8/18. A breakout inspired by Barrick could see a rapid run up to 23.00.

Centamin has been the leading gold co over the last week thanks to a higher gold price and favourable broker comment set against big sell off's in the risk on and momentum sectors. But there is another key driver supporting the Centamin share price over the last few days.

Yesterday the last legal and regulatory requirement was passed for the Barrick-Randgold merger. The new Barrick group is due to start trading on NYSE as of 2/1/19. The new group will trade in NY and Toronto exchanges but not on LSE. So Randgold shareholders can either take up the NYSE shares in the new group or sell out by year end.

As some UK funds are not allowed to hold stocks in other Exchanges Randgold's merger creates an opportunity for new capital into the remaining LSE gold miners. Centamin's status as a FTSE250 Co. with a healthy cash balance and no debt will likely make it a preferred option at these current cheap prices.

I am expecting a 0.25% int rate rise from the Fed tonight and a data dependent approach to raises in 2019.

So far this December for gold and gold miners is mirroring that of Dec 2015. And that is is encouraging for a potential gold stock rally in H1 2019.

closed at the highest weekly close in 18 weeks, or 4.5 months.

CEY was the only LSE gold producer to close higher. On a day when gold has been lower all day against a stronger dollar Index at 97.49 +0.40 +0.41%. CEY has also risen while the GDX ETF is trading lower at 20.29 -0.19 -0.93%.

Encouraging signs of institutional buying over the last couple of days and position taking ahead of the expected, and therefore priced in, Fed rate rise next Wed 19/12. For the last three years gold and CEY has had a nice rally after the Fed rate rise.

Greetings and thanks. Just hang in there better days are coming. You deserve to benefit from any coming uplift more than most of us. We should all bear in mind what major gold investor Rick Rule said "your gains as a speculator/investor in the gold market are hard won". Amen to that.

Most Centamin investors sensibly did nothing today. Today's volume at 2.6m was the lowest YTD and just over a third of the average daily vol of the last 3 months.

Gold is looking increasingly interesting, creeping up under the radar in a similar way and from a similar price level to last December. Will they try and sit on it ahead of the NFP tomorrow ? Maybe but if so I think it will quickly bounce back. The reasons for holding gold are moving rapidly from optional to imperative. Take heed of the advice of Ray Dalio and Stanley Druckenberg. A 5% portfolio holding of gold/mine shares is prudent. The US average is 0.4% and for UK investors even less than that.

January and February tend to be very good months for gold price rises. From Dec 2016 low gold rose $130 in 6 weeks to $1365 in Feb of this year. Arguably this 19/12 Fed rate hike is already priced in, so I am anticipating a similar move to lat year which may surprise on the upside because the uncertainties especially from the US just keep rising:

US rule of law: what is coming out next ? What of the political, economic ,financial impact ?
Democrats take control of H of Reps in January. Will they try to impeach Trump and obstruct government bills, budget ?
Bond Yield curve inversion this week- indicates a US recession on the horizon
US twin deficits are out of control now...and always shoot up in a recession. $ to lose market confidence ?
US-China trade war now full on after today's news Huawei CFO arrested in Canada on orders of US D of J
China retaliation : sell T.Bonds ? Stop/disrupt Apple and other high value China production ? Grab Taiwan ?
ECB end of QE 31/12/18
Brexit
Deutsche Bank : closed today at new low 7.70Euros
Italian Banks
Unpayable global debt

Each and all are gold positive and leveraged plays on gold like Centamin should do well in the chaos that I expect in 2019.

Look at the attached. I would say that Wall St stocks are in the "complacency" position while gold and gold producers like Centamin are in depression. I feel that a stealth rally is building in gold miners and very few holders realise. For the first time since H1 2016 headwinds are turning into tailwinds. Gold and miners couldn't get traction when the stocks momentum for FANG and tech were always rising over the last few years except for the 6 months H1 2016 gold romance .

But the end of QE, rising int rates, reducing buy back programmes, trade wars and overvaluation eventually burst a few bubbles all at once : bonds, property, stocks, even FANG stocks. For once it is the US's turn to catch down to the rest of the world which is already in correction mode but I suspect their overvalued markets will have bigger declines :

Shanghai index -22% YTD
German DAX -13.6%
Ftse -9.5%

Wall St's bubble has burst almost a year later yet the signs are that there is much more to come. Despite Nasdaq still +1% YTD it is already -14% from the high of the year. The S&P is unchanged YTD despite all of its stock buybacks - the very definition of a misallocation of capital when in the coming recession and companies have no funds for new plant or acquisitions. DJ is 1% down for the year. The path of least resistance looks down.

Gold and quality gold producers will transit from being optional investments to essential in the next rotation.Centamin's trading over the last two weeks is strong evidence of accumulation before the rush. Centamin will be the largest primary gold producer on the LSE as of February when Randgold is delisted which will bring in new institutional investors.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiz7Yar0ureAhVCQ8AKHTkeBvUQjRx6BAgBEAU&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.onemint.com%2F2010%2F06%2F30%2Fwall-street-cheat-sheet-psychology-of-a-market-cycle%2F&psig=AOvVaw0Dmp33WQLqytQICVIDV17z&ust=1543066912635944

Precious metals Co consolidation advances.

Six weeks after Barrick announced its Randgold merger (with no premium) to Randgold. Now Kitco reports that the world's 2nd largest primary silver miner Pan American is offering a 34.9% premium to buy Tahoe Resources.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2018-11-14/Pan-American-Agrees-To-Acquire-Tahoe-Resources-For-1-07-Billion.html

5/11/18 Barrick shareholders 99.8% voted in favour of the merger.
7/11/18 Randgold shareholders 95% voted in favour on a 100% turnout.

The merger is due to complete Q1 2019 and Randgold will delist from the LSE. That will leave Fresnillo as the only large cap, liquid trading volume, precious metal co in the Ftse 100 Index.

The Dems winning the House of Reps. and the Republicans retaining the Senate was the most gold positive outcome.

Current reactions along with CEY +2p :
Gold $1230.70 +$4.2 +0.34%
US $ Index 96.01 -0.25 -0.26%

Watch the US $ Index because a break below 96.00 would be significant and gold supportive. The Fed are having their monthly meeting today and tomorrow and may have an impact one way or the other. If you look at recent US bond auctions the demand even for a higher yield has been weak and that should be a real concern for the Fed and the US Treasury if the rest of the world are losing their appetite for US debt.

NOmi Prins ex Fed economist said last week if there is more stock market weakness before the December fed meeting the Fed may well "pause" the proposed Dec rate rise.

All the above plus added uncertainty from a now divided Congress is gold price supportive.

Thanks Siko and RazorsEdge for encouraging evidence of Sukari's recovering production.

Sotolo the HUI index is not an appropriate benchmark for a CEY comparison.

The HUI represents the largest 15 gold producers and is 40% weighted with just 3 companies : Newmont, Barrick and Goldcorp. These 3 companies and many of the other 12 have legacy issues that are particular to the gold majors since their mad buying spree of 2009-2012 at the top of the last gold bull rally.

6 years on many of the HUI co's are wrestling with declining production and reserves, huge write downs and high debts and disaffected shareholders. OK we have the latter but not the others. A higher gold price could have repaired the balance sheets of the majors but Obama's directive to the cartel banks in April 2012 has ever since subverted true gold price discovery in order to support the S&P and the dollar.

There will likely be much more consolidation amongst the majors but a few specific companies like Agnico Eagle, Kirkland Lake and Centamin have the potential to compete as lean and mean debt free predators and do exceptionally well. Looking ahead a $1500 gold price would help all producers balance sheets and PE ratios but would be transformational for debt free cashed up Centamin.

Too optimistic ? Even the LBMA think $1500 gold is possible. Last Wednesday 31/10 the LBMA conference in Boston forecast that gold could rally +25% to $1532 in 2019.

It's always darkest before the dawn.

Just 10.4p above its 2.5yr low registered on Q3 Update 5/10. In comparison gold mine peers have already begun to respond to the gold price pick up from the low 7 weeks ago at $1161.
Today gold is $1234.5 +$4.4 +0.45% and CEY is down again while all her key peers are up both today with gold and have rallied with gold over the last 7 weeks.

RRS and ACA have enjoyed a big boost and investor interest since the Barrick merger announcement of 24/9. Yesterday Barrick shareholders voted 99.8% in favour of deal 5/11. They have momentum :
RRS price now +39.8% since low 14/9
ACA price now +68.5% since low 14/9

Smaller peer HGM is now + 24.3% since it's share price low of 2/8.

Centamin is trading near 2.5 year low price, with $300m cash in hand and recovering production to optimal levels. Gold prices historically are higher Nov-Jan and as of February when Randgold is delisted from the LSE, Centamin will be the largest pure UK registered gold miner.

We had a period like this when CEY was scorned and ignored at end of 2015 and then CEY went from 60p to 180p in 5 months.

Catalysts for a big gold and miner rally might include a divided Congress after the midterm election; Fed pausing Int rates rises after Dec; Trump declaring a weak dollar strategy to undermine the Chinese Yuan devaluations; inflation hotting up; recession appearing; another banking crisis starting in Italy; threat or real war in Middle East; full tariffs on all Chinese exports. A realisation that the momentum stock bubble is over and world debt is out of control. Then gold and gold stocks even Centamin will be sought out and cherished.

Since CEY's close on Wed 17/10 at 105.85p the pullback and anchoring near day's lows for two days in row is odd. I said before that it was partly out of backfilling and confidence building that the recovery steps have been tentative. But yesterday and today there was another factor in play. Let's call it A+A.

A : On Wednesday Acacia informed investors of new charges and staff arrests at their subsidiary in Tanzania.

A : for algos. Yesterday and today Centamin was trading in treacle never able to get going. Why ? I believe that the algos which direct 94% of passive trading noted the uncertainty for Acacia and did a read across marking down Centamin because it just happens to be mining on the same continent.

Despite that Centamin still closed up 1.18% on the week and the 5th week out of 6 to rise.I still believe that the macro economic and stock market volatility support Centamin moving into the 105p-110p range next week. Once it breaks out of the 110p resistance for the last 11 weeks then more momentum investors will join the bus.

After finding a bottom 11/9 at 84.74p and then having it retested after the revised down FY outlook with Q3 5/10, it is no surprise that the share price is making lots of backfilling moves to make the next up move as robust as possible.This is our third week of 100p-105p for the most part and we're in the 10th week closing under 110p.

The next challenge is the 105p-110p range before the assault on a close above 110p.

With today's backfilling CEY now needs a reversion to the mean to catch up with mining peers and todays stealth rally in gold currently $1229.4 +7.5 +0.60% and GDX ETF currently 20.25 +0.34 +1.71% trading at highest level since 10/8, ten weeks ago.

Arguably Centamin has some catching up to do.

GDX ETF now trading 19.45 +0.82 +4.4%. The highest it has traded since 14/8. What it does in the next few days will probably tell us whether funds were parked here as insurance for a few days or alternatively as part of a major sector rotation. The spot gold price move today $1217.40 +$23 + 1.93% would suggest a real test of 3 month resistance for the most traded Comex contract Dec at $1220 is now in play.

Trump channeling Erdogan blames his Central Bank for market slump.
The Fed determined ? to raise rates so they have ammo to cut in a recession.
Bond market telling us the Fed is dangerously behind the yield curve.
Amazon at a PE of 155 is nuts.
US/China trade war is a disaster for China now and for US imminently.
Hedge funds record short Comex gold futures. Break above Dec Comex $1210 & it could get lively quickly.
US Dollar Index potential double top 14/8 96.73 and 9/10 96.14
US mid term election in 4 weeks.
US debt bomb just keeps on growing.
Why not buy some gold or quality miners as insurance ? After all gold is in a bull market in most developing currency markets. Gold and miners are massively undervalued and unloved. The HUI index is near a 16 year valuation low. The GDX ETF of the largest gold miners including CEY closed +1.31% last night. In contrast the tech ETF suffered the biggest one day drop in 7 years.

Putting even 5%-10% of one's portfolio into gold and miners looks more sensible by the day.

An hour before LSE closed and CEY was falling below 92p. Why ? It may have been related to the major miners ETF GDX trading down to 18.15 -0.24 at that time and gold was unchanged yet Wall St was slumping. But gold made a small rise to Comex close and GDX picked up and closed 18.63 +0.24 +1.3%. Which is impressive in an otherwise brutal day in the US markets :
DJ -3.15% biggest drop since Feb
S&P -3.29%
Nasdaq -4.08% worst day in more than 2 years.

Thanks Rebess. I'm just catching up with the S.Times business section "The week in the markets" and low and behold their different messaging impact.
Among S.Times 5 Risers of the week it says :
Acacia 114.4p +8.7% on wk. On sentiment
Fallers of the week :
Centamin 91.3p -14% on wk. On second production forecast cut

Let's hope Centamin have learnt from this own goal.

Acacia reported better than expected Q3 today and raised their FY target. Their previous FY target had a 40k oz range 435k-475k and they now expect 500k.

Hindsight is wonderful but i wonder if Centamin in Q2 would have been better putting a similar wide revised FY target such as 480k-520k a 40k range also. Then because of the uncertainty of how long the intersection to better grade took in Q3 (we know now it was 2 months) then the company would have given a more constructive message:

Q3 improved on Q2 and we believe that with our September step up through Q4 we can achieve at least 480k if not more.

The aim after a setback should be to "kitchen sink" the downside so that the company has a chance to underpromise and then overdeliver

Amongst analysts comments on Friday RBC criticised the Q3 "on a number of levels", including "poor messaging".