Member Info for MarkBellUK

" think we we can safely assume that the pre dividend rise is now dead there is no way these will go anywhere near 590 let alone 600p"

Why because it dropped 3% in a day? Its still up on the week and like I said before volatility works both way. It we get positive Brexit news there will be a stampede the other way!

PS Wkworld look at the size of the BUY side of the order book for this share as it closed

Sep 21 2018, 16:35 560.00 2,502,585 559.80 560.00 Buy 14,014,476 UT

Thats £14,014,476

" i thought a no deal brexit and slowing house price inflation was already factored into the share price"

It is BUT fear and market panic are very powerful as we have just seen. However the good news is the reverse is also true and volatility works both ways. Investing is more about patience and learning about yourself under pressure/lose more than anything else (given you choose the right company/ies)...one of which this is

"I thought the Sets system got rid of all that sort of Sp manipulation."

Look into algorithmic trading mate

What a disastrous afternoon thanks to a load of Brexit nonsense that even given a worse case scenario wont affect the margins of this company that much.....while the rest of the FTSE goes up 1.5% including many companies that will be far worse hit!

Go figure!

Wworld I think we may well see this finish up today after the auction at 430...looks like somebody is setting up another large buy

Even if that doesnt happened today I will be very surprised if we are not up by at least 10% by 10/10/18

Should read £20k £15k and £5k but you get the drift. Doh!

Yes because heres what they do (im monitoring each order)

They hit the order book CONTINUALLY with small sells..e.g ever minute sell 20 sell 7 sell 18 sell 27 etc

So even though the book is BUY weighted the price is slowly been pushed down do to the volume of sells

Then when the SP hits -1% they drop on a massive buy order for £2 million plus. Remember they are not paying per transaction so if you can save one percent of £2m its £200k even if you have lost £50k doing all the small sells you are still £150k up on the buy

Not institutional has just trigger auction!

Sep 21 2018, 10:15 576.20 534,030 575.20 576.20 Buy 3,077,081 UT

"Uncrossing trade (yesterday) was £8696m."

Yes Sunset Im trying to remember the "''s so as not to confuse the oldies ;)

PS in that auction there were orders of over a million volume @ 612.80 and circa 300,000 volume bidding into the 630's!

I got rather excited as it would have closed over 6 if not for the sellers countering mid 500's

"cos no book ideas will work at the moment "
You may well be surprised. Its not so much a book of ideas as a book written by many fund managers who have collectively managed billions. Its more a what to do when you find yourself in a given situation. Are you a rabbit? A hunter or an assassin? Different character types and real world examples

"Have you got an exit plan from bdev?"

Not as yet. Im currently just over 9% up and I guess there is at least 10% to go before the post market auction on the 10/10. I have DMA so will either drop all my holdings in that auction or hold the lot!

Ive found the grass always looks greener on the other side but rarely is, so may well hold. Yes this may well drop but I think it will then stabilize between 650-700 (broker median circa 670). That could take 3 months though and a decent brexit outcome

Yes I think you are right re profit warning. Looking at it now all the analyst forecasts I can see have an increase in net profit from $43.3m to $49.5m 2018 BUT they have a $39.5m estimate into 2019 taking it back into sub 2017 profit territory where the SP was 65

Hi again Nige_W

I would recommend this book:-

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Art-Execution-investors-millions-markets/dp/085719495X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1537453398&sr=8-1&keywords=art+of+execution

It has really helped me mate

For me this is now a real opportunity to buy in. Its just market fear playing on the factors you highlight

If you own I would hold although so could well bounce circa 80

Crazy stock exchange

lol lucky guess at 570 exact (570 + 14% = 650!)

You could be right but the optimist in me (and analyst!) says 650 is 14% and we have 20 working days thats only 0.7% a day!!

DO _ ABLE!

the annoying thing is I used to work with fund managers , designing and building the software they used/use. Never bothered to invest until last year..Doh!

DividendC those are orders that have been worked throughout the last 48 hrs and must reported within the given time frames

The only thing that affects the opening price tomorrow is the pre market auction from 0750 to 0800

" I agree that he has no right to second guess the outcomes of a no deal brexit"

Nice to see the Times new article which basically blows Mr Carneys evaluation out of the water

my guess 630 then -%5 on open