Member Info for MarkBellUK

Further to this I believe, as the penny drops and the S/ SE facing builders start to see margins eaten, those who wish to remain in this lucrative sector will move over to BDEV or other builders who focus on areas that are still appreciating and yields are better

To give you a good idea look at the LHA levels Vs property price demographically. These have just seen an indifferent budget boost via Universal Credit and directly via council funding

Property is very demographic..what the stock market doesnt understand fully is the depth and contrast of the property markets within the property market. The SE and London has been slowing for years and is now negative. Tax changes to landlords, additional stamp duty costs (second+ home & now foreign), increased borrowing costs (ongoing), borrowing vs income / capital increase vs wage increase etc have all eaten yields. To put that into perspective the properties I purchased 20 years ago I have yields of nearly 20%, a minimum of 14%. Now I am struggling to get 8% and you have leasehold legislation that needs sorting / service charges / ground rent etc etc

Unfortunately BDEV has been sucked in when the bulk of its builds are in areas that are still increasing (midlands, yorkshire). These factors affect BDEV slightly (and is already OVERfactored into the price) where as SE / London they affect massively

No worries Auson

Its always worth remembering its just one persons opinions, but its informative. I have analysts views across the board ( I like to share what I can but most reports are watermarked with my email so I cant!)...bottom line the median target is all little over 650. All of which is fully supported by indepth study & research and factors in Brexit BUT doesnt include the positive extension of right to buy and extra stamp duty relief, so may may see increases in target

Kitsz you need to consider regarding the charts you use, that there only as good as their data feed. Most (including trading view / Sharepad etc etc) just use domestic Reuters/ Digital Look. To be reliable you need a professional service like a Bloomberg terminal , Reuters Eikon or even Infront is decent

Thank you for a comprehensive analysis of just 40 stocks. What about everything else?

Yet here you are

So whilst you kept missing the boat ive been making money on BDEV

No Davie...computers don't understand English and as you can see I struggle too!

Which is now public! Had to sat for a month lol

https://www.hardmanandco.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/UK-Housebuilding-Sector-in-3Q-2018-trains-cows-and-beyond.pdf

Oh I can go further like access to full broker notes on the sector like.."UK Housebuilding Sector in 3Q 2018…
…trains, cows and beyond
By Tony Williams, Hardman & Co Analyst" it's excellent!

BUZZ-UK housebuilders rise as govt extends flagship home-buying scheme

** Shares in Taylor Wimpey up 2.1 percent, Persimmon gains 2.2 percent and Berkeley Group gains 1.7 percent, Barratt Development
up 1.7 percent

** Housebuilders among the top gainers in London, outperforming the blue-chip FTSE 100

** Government extended its flagship "Help to Buy" equity loan scheme, which has helped first-time buyers get onto the property ladder by allowing them to purchase a new home with as little as a 5 percent deposit

** Programme will run for two additional years until 2023 although the finance minister also introduced some regional caps on the value of property which can be bought

** Budget also pledged further 500 million pounds for Housing Infrastructure Fund, to enable a further 650,000 homes.

** Liberum says the changes were expected but still welcome as they reduce some uncertainty that has clouded the outlook for the sector hit hard by Brexit. The scheme funds around 40 percent of transactions

** Valuations remain very depressed, with uncertainty over Brexit the dominant factor, Liberum says

** Liberum analysts see value across the board, but continue to favour those with deliverable volume objectives or margin improvement potential. The stand-outs are Bellway or Gleeson among the smaller builders.

** They see minimal impact from the phase-out of the scheme which was introduced in 2013

** "Builders will have time to re-plan sites around the lower price points" after 2023, they say in a note

** "From 2023 onwards, we believe that many who used the scheme have not needed it and for those few who depend on it, either mortgage lending will be freer by then or housebuilders will need to offer their own shared equity again." (Reporting by Josephine Mason)

I both invest & trade, but havent traded for a few months due to other commitments

Ive wrote systems for Windsor Life (merger with Crown Life , Aetna,Gresham etc) and also Syndicates at Lloyds (Scan re, Gravett & Tilling) also Analysis systems for Astrazeneca, ICI Syngenta

With trends you need to consider funds can / do easily manipulate stocks to gain entry / exit at leisure. Half the time they want you to think its moving in a different to stop out / move in etc

I use DMA now but find trading view very good (check out Lazy Bear algo's)

But the trend is not your friend and I used to code the software fund managers use for over 20 years

You see now the procrastinators have a problem..#BREAKOUT or not...they've already missed 480...looking like we have just sailed through 500...next fiboanacci at 527 but the you just lost 10% profit from 480..oh and that dividend at 6.,5%...oh what to do?

I find its fair easier to just think this is cheap, might go down further but hey ho will come back up and get in!

#BoatMIssed?

" Don't know why, Budget?"

Right to buy extended until 2023..stamp duty up to £500k abolished on first time buyers...capital gain allowance raised to £12k

Stil Im sure we will have plenty more games before this bad boy hits 650

Owls is really isnt that simple. A solid company with a close on a BILLION FCF and increased profits, margins and every other figure you can think of over the last 5 years in a downtrend means a BUYING OPPORTUNITY., but you know that

Kitsz Im not sure why you didnt put the full title of the article and gave it a negative impression (maybe unintentionally) but its very positive..I was hoping it would be more negative as the opposite usually happens to the SP!... here are some quotes

"Despite announcing record profits in September and a positive update a month later, rival Barratt Developments has suffered much the same fortunes in terms of its shares."

"Housebuilders outside of the London area may be a safer bet for now."

"However, he calls the lack of a cap to limit the size of the payout a 'monumental' mistake, which won't be repeated.

Still, shareholders have benefited from the company's strong financial performance – and could continue to do so.

Cullen expects housebuilders to start to pick up soon after the UK leaves the EU, when investors feel more sure that the housing market isn't headed for a slump. Lewis believes a rebound could even come before this point.

The housebuilders certainly aren't short of work, as mainstream political parties on both sides of the fence are keen to beef up the UK's housing stock.

Their balance sheets are largely in better shape than they have been in years and for savers, it could be worth taking a punt while the shares are depressed."

Hi Smith

I havent a clue to be honest, BUT if the government has any sense (do they?) ....given global and national economic factors, potential rate rises , demand, need for ownership etc etc they would be foolish to stop or put any over restrictive terms on it.

KD dont bear yourself up. This stock is worth 650+ so you havent made a mistake long term

All markets are bonkers at the moment. Try to remember in the background Barratts are still building houses, selling them and making 17.7% on each one whilst the divi's keep coming!

Kitsz there is far more than PE when considering value..see my last post

OK lets put this to bed. Here is why Bdev is better value than TW based on the factual fundamentals

TW has worse Price to book , Price to Free Cash Flow, Price to Earnings Ratio, Price to Sales Ratio . Also BDEV has a better Earnings Yield ( EBIT / EV ) and Dividend Yield % (exc Special Div)!!

For the record Only Redrow matches it for Value