Member Info for MarkBellUK

" I am heavily invested in BDEV and will adding at the current price range as funds allow. "

Great post monty and I too am scrabbling around to top up a heavily as I can at these prices

Thanks Kitz I wasnt aware of the PSN situation! Frustrating how BDEV keeps getting sucked into external factors that are of no consequence , now on a regular basis

As for junk bonds?? Who said that - Divc? He's filtered as a known shorter / clueless -as that statement clearly shows!

Its probably due to the house price data that came out at 0930..."UK house price growth slowed again in September, down to its lowest annual rate in six and a half years at 0.9 per cent."

All builders took a battering, again ridiculous as for starters prices are still going up overall and each company has region focus

"Generally I go for capital growth rather than dividend growth and have had most success with companies that pay little or no dividend."

Sometimes I do but with BDEV at 510 I think I will get both. There is a 30% upside on this. I wont be selling for under 650 no matter how long it takes

Until then I will just have to keep getting the 9% dividend at the SP I paid on it I suppose.....

BDEV Barratt Developments PLC Peel Hunt Buy 680

"Personally if I was buying a share for the dividend I would want a dividend cover of 2.5."

Interesting as with a yield greater than 4% that leaves you under 26 companies in all UK indexes...with a yield or 5% just 10 options?

FYI A dreadfully timed profit warning from CREST (which operates in the South of England - completely different market) isnt helping us or builders gnerally today, even though it has NO relevance to BDEV

"Any dividend that is more than twice the FTSE100 average I would treat with scepticism."

Obviously when you are short and havent studied the actual figures for the last DECADE

"If the market believed this yield was sustainable they would pile in to it,"

Not at all when funds are holding back waiting a Brexit outcome or a reversal of trend

"I would trust the market rather than any comments on a BB"

Although the two are not mutually exclusive anyone who trusts in a stock market is vastly inexperienced. Funds and mm's will pull down a price at will, even taking heavy losses for a season simply to buy in vast amounts cheaper at a given time. I will go with Isaac Newton on this when you lost everything on the markets "I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.

UK builder Barratt says confident of delivering a good performance in FY19

Group Has Started New Financial Year In A Strong Position, With A Good Sales Rate, Healthy Forward Order Book And Customer Demand Supported By An Attractive Lending Environment.
We Are Focused On Delivering Our Medium Term Targets Set Out At Our Full Year Results, Whilst Maintaining Our Commitment To Leading Industry
Market Conditions Remain Good, And Group Has Traded Well Since Start Of New Financial Year.
Customer Demand Remains Strong, Supported By Positive Government Policy And Wide Availability Of Attractive Mortgage Finance.
In First 15 Weeks Of Financial Year Net Private Reservations Per Active Outlet Per Average Week Remain Strong At 0.72 (2018: 0.74)((1)
We Have Launched 53 (2018: 62) New Developments In Period (Including Jvs), Operating From An Average Of 365 (2018: 371) Active Outlets (Including Jvs).
Total Forward Sales (Including Jvs) As At 14 October 2018 Were Up 12.4% On Prior Year At A Value Of £3,146.5m
We Are Securing Excellent Operational Land Opportunities That Meet Our New Land Acquisition Hurdle Rates, Of Minimum 23% Gross Margin And A Minimum Of 25% Roce.
Group Has Made A Strong Start To Year
In Fy19 We Are Focused On Implementing Our New Medium Term Targets Throughout Business.
Board Is Confident Of Delivering A Good Financial And Operating Performance In Fy19.
Total Proposed Dividend For Fy18, Including Interim Dividend Of 8.6 Pence Per Share Paid In May 2018, Is Therefore £442m Or 43.8 Pence Per Share (2017: 41.7 Pence Per Share).
Good Progress Is Being Made With Planned Roll-out Of New Product Ranges And This Will Increasingly Benefit Margin Going Forward.

Owls remind me again what the dividend cover is? That's how you tell mate

So tell me KD how do you price? How do you put a value on it?

CREDIT SUISSE RAISES BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS TARGET TO 744 (726) PENCE - 'OUTPERFORM'

Hi Smith

Firstly remember this is technical analysis, not a science so is never exactly repeatable. For an unknown reason analysis has shown that share price movement sometimes retraces back in a given sequence. The fibonacci takes the highest and lowest points and then retraces either back up or down. Its based on Pii. The golden fibonaci occurs more often than the others. These guys are good:-

https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:fibonacci_retracemen

I prefer to draw it out but this is quick and useful

https://uk.investing.com/tools/fibonacci-calculator

" So what I would like to do is try and look into the banking side and how their lending policy may affect house builders"

It wont affect BDEV as they have hold no debt since 2013. In fact every year they have accredit piles of cash. So much they now have a FCF (free cash flow) of 791.6 MILLION!

No worries. Ive been in BDEV about 9 months buying in tranches but ive been into property for over 20 years (landlord is my main business)

I picked BDEV as the upside potential momentum is among the best and as you say the yield IS offsetting any downside if you buy at the right time

Whilst 480 holds support the golden fibonacci range is 527-528 from a retracement so this week will be very interesting. Im hoping the panic 12% (which was at 9% on 145,000 volume) may be the pullback to buck the trend. The 5.33% reaction was much better than I anticipated

its incredible when you consider how Brexit, trade wars etc have affected this when there will be virtually no impact. The only things that will are LARGE rate rises (which will take years) and the costs of steel (which even on a large build is only for screws and wall plates - limited costs). Everything else is source internally and their staff are already in place. Most off plan sales for 2019 and 2020 have already been sold! In fact BDEV operating margin has gone from 6.3% in 2013 to 17.7% in 2018..it has increased every year!

Kitsz can I ask why you suddenly choose to make your first posts on LSE on Bdev?

Hi Kitz

Bdev has a PE of 7.36 which is 11th out of 34 in this sector and very low. It ranks equal 5th in the sector for value due to these superb numbers:-
P/E 7.74
P/B 1.14
P/S 1.07
P/FCF 10.3
Yield % 8.6
Earnings Yield % 19.5

What about if they bought them for 100?

UBS issues Buy target 665

Don't sell cheap guys!!

MEDIAN broker target is 658. Dont sell for anything less I say

I reckon 10% increase shortly after yet another strong update

If it keeps coming back like this maybe sooner

Fibonacci at 527 we have to push through though

#FilteredJoy