Member Info for MarkBellUK

Its mainly about the BREXIT vote..debate starts on the 4/12 and voted on the 11/12.

My opinion is that a vote against (NO DEAL) will see a further drop followed by a potential 2rd referendum which will cause rocket increase if we vote to stay

If however it triggers a general election and labour get it how knows

A yes vote, I would anticipate, will also see this rocket back up

Nothings certain, just my opinions, but Im waiting/ watching to top up heavily.

Just a quick reality check at 134. This would put TW NET profit back into the £375m range which would require a 41% drop in profits

Im waiting to do a large top up. The timing is almost impossible and I usually get it wrong but the massive factor in play now is the Brexit Parliamentary debate which starts on the 4/12 with the vote of the 11/12

My thinking is to work around that. A no deal Brexit and we could go lower (before bouncing back) but a vote in favor and I will miss the boat!

KD dont forget about this stock buy more IMHO

I quote

"The Bank said that none of its projections were forecasts, only scenarios. “These scenarios illustrate what could happen, not necessarily what is most likely to happen under a range of assumptions,” it said."

So in other words he's talking b**ll*cks

So NigeW typically after I say that about BWY...

", the managers of Standard Life Investments UK Equity Unconstrained (B79X967) and Mercantile Investment Trust (MRC) both highlight Bellway (BWY) as an undervalued opportunity. Wesley McCoy from Standard Life describes it ‘one of the best operators in the market’. (TS)"

Hi Nigel

With the systems I use BWY comes in behind those..

Long Term Average Return on Capital Employed
Long Term Gross Profits to Assets - (made famous by Robert Novy-Marx)
Long Term Average Free Cashflow to Assets Ratio
Long Term Operating Margin Stability
Long Term Sales Growth Consistency
Fundamental Momentum
Piotroski F-Score
Altman Z-Score
Beneish M-Score,
Net debt to assets

However Ive just noticed GFRD which is also up there and so cheap!

I'd be more inclined with BDEV & RDW, although PSN and TW also decent!

Fundamentally there's not a massive difference on any of those 4..TW getting silly cheap as is this

Once again OWLS you only focus on the negative of Woodford and dont mention a single positive

At least you are consistently negative

Yet another..they cant ALL be wrong!

HSBC INITIATES BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS WITH 'BUY' - TARGET 620 PENCE

...its also foolish and futile to try and scramble back in when it shoots back and then end up paying more than you sold it for in a panic

Whats more Acacia is a serious risk..its scores -0.2 on the Altman..ANYTHING BELOW 1.2! is a risk..also dreadful on the Greenblatt system..net profit MINUS £707 million last fin year

Hopefully see some buying momentum over the next few days with dividend reinvestment and sellers drying up

We have held well today given there was a £61m! sell at 10:05 off book

KP2 is classified as a sucker stock!!

Housebuilders Cheer Brexit Progress News

UK housebuilders are among the stocks seeing the strongest rally today as news of progress in Brexit talks lifts the sector among the worst-hit by the vote to exit the EU.

They're seen as the most vulnerable to a messy Brexit, so signs of progress towards a deal are driving a strong surge.

Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey are both up 5 percent, Barratt Developments is up 3.7 percent, Berkeley Group is up 3.1 percent, while among mid-caps Crest Nicholson and Bellway are both up 5.5 percent, Bovis Homes is up 5.1 percent and Redrow is rising 4.5 percent.

"I think this is all related to sentiment changing around Brexit," says Charlie Campbell, housebuilders and building materials analyst at Liberum.

"The currency market adjusted in half a second and the equity market takes a day," he adds.

"Sentiment towards Brexit is the dominant theme at the moment in housebuilding shares," he reckons, and with a large short base in many of these stocks, even a little positive news causes big moves as shorts are squeezed.

But those investors long housebuilders are probably not bringing out the champagne just yet: Persimmon, for example, is only back at its levels of end-September, when investors were very nervous about a no-deal Brexit.

Overall the housebuilding sector is still down quite sharply this year, and trading around the levels it was before the Brexit vote.

Predominately city centre of Birmingham but many areas surrounding are still strong and as the centre grows so will demand for commutable locations

Good news coming thick and fast..May has struck a BREXIT deal on fin services and this from the Times

A decade on, new home numbers go through roof

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a-decade-on-new-home-numbers-go-through-roof-8pgchr0rs?shareToken=8286c311ff17270a1b1aa579ecf8fe55

Retracing from 478 to 661 shows a Fibonacci @23.6% of 522..we have now bounced off it twice 521.9 on 31/10 then twice this morning on 5 minute candles..typically as Im typing this we have just shoot through it..it we can close through it thats superb..other levels to watch see chart:-

https://ibb.co/fNLZ7f

I know Birmingham is rocketing first hand..also:-

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/10/17/house-price-growth-midlands-outpaces-rest-country/

Indirect not indifferent!