Member Info for MarkBellUK

..after a good TU...they are dropping to trigger stop losses..hold on guys..Special Div as certain as can be after great update .. � Trading is strong and the outlook for the full year remains in line with the Board's expectations � Sales rate in line with the prior year at 0.80 (2017: 0.80) net private reservations per active outlet per average week((1)) � Total forward sales (including JVs) at record levels, up 2.5% as at 6 May 2018, to �3,286.7m (7 May 2017: �3,205.7m) � Awarded the Home Builder Federation's maximum five star customer satisfaction rating for the ninth consecutive year reflecting our commitment to build quality and customer service � Expect to approve the purchase of more than 20,000 (FY17: 18,497) plots for the full year to help support future volume growth � Net cash((2)) position at 30 June 2018 is expected to be better than previous guidance at around �550m (30 June 2017: �723.7m)

Irish drinks company C&C has bought the wholesale business of Conviviality, after the ailing alcoholic drinks retailer and supplier appointed administrators yesterday. Following �advanced discussions� with Conviviality, which owns brands such as Wine Rack and Bargain Booze, C&C said in a statement it had agreed to buy Conviviality brands Matthew Clark, Bibendum, Catalyst, Peppermint, Elastic and Walker & Wodehouse for a nominal sum. C&C brands include Magners cider and Tennent�s lager. The deal, which C&C said was backed by a major customer � global drinks group AB InBev � confers control of the UK�s largest independent trade distributor in the sector and Conviviality�s most valuable assets. The retail business, including off-licence chain Bargain Booze, is still up for sale. With its retail business unsold, Conviviality is �not out of the woods yet,� said Michael Mulligan, partner and insolvency specialist at law firm Shakespeare Martineau. �Conviviality�s retail operations, Bargain Booze and Wine Rack, may not be attractive propositions for buyers. Consumer spending is dropping and high-street retailers are coming under increasing pressure from restrictive rents and rates.� Conviviality announced last week that it planned to call in administrators to start an insolvency process after two profit warnings in a week, an unexpected �30m tax bill and having failed to raise �125m from investors to resolve a cash crisis. Diana Hunter stepped down as chief executive on March 19. Matthew Clark and Bibendum together supply more than 23,000 hotels, pubs and restaurants across the UK, and C&C now owns 100 per cent of the issued share capital of Matthew Clark Bibendum. It is unclear how many of the 2,600 Conviviality jobs will be saved. However, about 2,000 of these are in the wholesale business. C&C said it plans to provide funds to meet the cash needs of the business, and that AB InBev would contribute additional financial support. The sale comes less than three years after Conviviality bought Matthew Clark for �200m and wine merchant Bibendum for �60m.

Agema its all factored into those numbers Bonum I agree with your the director buy synopsis. For me this is a much stronger indication of an imminent takeover than anything else

bonum dont get me wrong I still think its worth circa 600 but long term without a significant improvement in margins Im struggling to see value or a sustainable dividend The saving grace may well be the USA market they are attempting to enter. For me this now becomes very significant

I think you will find everything I have stated numerically is a fact. My opinion is dynamic based upon knowledge which is turn is based upon said facts

>I'd hope and expect that in a range of 65-70 a barrel that 1.6% should increase. Exactly the issue is its much easier to reduce a margin than increase. This yoy 2012-2017 12.2 12.2 3.5 -3.7 2.4 1.6

bonum the macro economic environment is dreadful for anyone stock. In an attempt to tame inflation global rate rises only increase debt and reduce spending? FED has said 5 rate rises in the next 2 years and BOE is following suit (potential rise next month). As if that wasnt bad enough a global trade war is now in full swing regardless of Brexit! The dividend yield has just been reduced by 42% and my concern is I dont think even that is sustainable at an operating margin of 1.6% To put that into perspective the $500m contracts over the last week produce just $8m in profit with over $8m of that being paid out in dividends even after a 42% reduction!

Of course. Let me make it clear from the offset at the moment I do not hold PFC ( and anyone who reads what I write will know I will give my honest opinion regardless). I am NOT trying to put it down (to get the price to drop so I can re enter - like I ever could!) but will share my research (briefly) So its based purely on fundamentals and nothing to do with the SFO (which if resolved/ charged / DPA'd) will have a massive impact -/+ depending on circumstance. My first concern came with MS originally re-rated. I never take brokers in isolation but wondered why. Then Stockopedia re rated from in the high 90's (best of the best) to 74 and now today to 63. At this point I thought need to spend time looking into why PFC is a great divi share historically and even now after the reduction. However if you look at the dividend cover it is still -0.22 meaning still the net profits do not cover the dividend. The operating margin is down 50% from 2.4 to 1.6 and the free cash flow is down over 50% too. Net debt is down $54 m but cash is down further $200m. Book value is down yoy every year since 2013. ROCE is also down quite heavily . I can go on So the bottom line for me is the orders need to keep coming thick and fast (been a good week to be fair) but that operating margin needs improving quickly (very difficult) as in 2012/2013 it was 12,2% which is brilliant, now its 1.6% which IMHO is border line sustainable especially given debt ratios

I'm just going over the fundamentals again in depth bonum. I think you might be surprised at the reratings. Look at the last re-rating by Morgan Stanley. I can now see why. I'm not saying this isn't a good investment. I'm saying be careful and this has nothing to do with the SFO DYOR

Hargreaves Lansdown are good but it takes 24 hrs to filter through..Shares mag emails notifications are good but a few hours behind..News sub on here is 2rd only to Bloomberg terminal or Eikon for early ratings

Definitely an impossible call. At the moment I'm not sure if its about PFC or the general markets (entire USA indices down 10% since high of Jan!) & poo took a hit yesterday. All it needs is the sentiment of PFC to become a safe haven (to a certain extent) and this will fly. Unfortunately the counter is also true

Yep..and ironically the panic shift to "defensive stocks" i.e Seven Trent, United Utils, Centrica etc..look at the fundamentals they are all poor, some average at best..there is significantly more panic than logic at the moment IMHO For me PFC aside and maybe BDEV (close to bottom SP with an 8% yield after posting best results in 9 years and stating they will pay a special div for 2018 & 2019) theres a lot to be said for a strong cash position at the moment. We could see on going "corrections" throughout this year and thereafter

Ive just close one down as well it was six! (although the recording studio associated with it is still running !)..Oh and plus the 5 companies im the finance officer and on the leadership team of a church! Plus 2 younger kids its tough but apparently I was made this way! To be fair the software development company is dormant as Ive been heavily into property since 2000 I think Rdr might be away but im guessing..he hasnt posted on anything for a while. We go on family vacation on Thurs too so I cant decide whether to be in or out whilst away! Nothing to do with it being a good or bad timing I just dont want to be checking it constantly whilst spending time with the family (I wish I could stop doing that!) Aside from the last few days PFC seems to have been in its own bubble. The rest of the markets have been all over the place. FTSE100 is generally dreadful. USA indices just reported the worst QUARTER in years and with interest rate rising hitting hard for the next 3/4 years/ Trade wars etc etc I cant see it getting any better. In fact I will go as far as to say we could hit recession soon if they dont get rate rises / inflation etc etc balanced properly, which aint easy The good news is I see PFC as a potential safe haven in amongst this chaos, still being undervalued and with a decent yield. I just hope it doesnt get sucked into the heavy turbulence but I think some is a given so I would be over concerned about days like Thursday..Take a look at MCRO, IHG or CNV!!

Im still here guys but Im flat out with other work. Im the director of 5 companies so occasionally need to do something! Ive down graded my subscription on here until they sort of the problems and I have many other systems Due to holiday and stress (dad is seriously ill) II got out at 503 before it dropped but then missed the boat at circa 410 to get back in so there is a lesson in my mistake. Im also �8700 DOWN in what I put that money into due to missing the boat @ circa 415 What I will say is I may well end up being back in at over the 503 I sold out (liquidity is factor too) so may as well have held and now not have the �8700 loss! All the markets are taking a hammering at the moment so this isnt doing bad. The moody upgrade is massive I think its good for 600 now but I fear it will get played with heavy ex div tbh

Its holding up quite well given the market conditions. I expect this to shoot up very soon

Don't the FCA share the same regs as the SEC on many things now?

No hoping it is positive in a sense they don't want the SP to collapse on conjecture and are clarifying the financial position. "The SEC has the authority to suspend the trading of a security for up to 10 trading days to protect investors. The SEC has this ability under Section 12(k) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The SEC will make the decision to do this based on an investigation and will then issue a press release detailing the reason for the suspension. The most common reason for suspension is due to a lack of publicly available, relevant and current financial information. "

Yes I haven't topped up and may well have missed the boat to do so That being said it will probably smash 600 now such is PFC

Funnily enough LEX touches on it (CAPEX) US shale: pay now Please use the sharing tools found via the email icon at the top of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour. https://www.ft.com/content/e95f0a5c-20cd-11e8-9efc-0cd3483b8b80?desktop=true&segmentId=7c8f09b9-9b61-4fbb-9430-9208a9e233c8#myft:notification:daily-email:content Forgive American energy investors for being wary of the oil boom but this time they want their money in advance. US oil prices have soared back above $60 per barrel. Four years ago � the last time oil drilling exploded � the crash in prices led to a wave of bankruptcies for the independent producers who had gorged on high yield debt. Another glut is now afoot. US daily oil production has jumped to 10m barrels per day � a level last seen in 1970. The International Energy Agency recently said that by 2023 the US will be the largest energy producer in the world. For American pride, this is all to the good. But for shareholders obsessed with returns on investment, the boom is cause for concern. In the most recent quarter 15 US oil and gas companies announced greater dividend and buyback policies. Perhaps most notably, Anadarko Petroleum raised its divided by five times from 5 cents per share to 25 cents. The new-found bounty has been enabled in large part by a burst of drilling productivity. There were around 1,400 onshore rigs three years ago � now that number has shrunk below 800. Efficiency comes from technology: big data computing and more advanced rigs. According to Credit Suisse calculations, the ratio of forecasted cash flow to capital expenditures is now at 92 per cent after years of investment spend that far exceeded cash flow. Capital markets have become less willing to fund those deficits, forcing companies to learn how to live within their means. The crucial piece in this circular puzzle is, naturally, oil prices. Now above $60 per barrel, all sorts of oil companies are suddenly profitable and have enough self-generated resources to fund capex as well as healthy capital return. Still, shares of US independent drillers are down near a tenth for the year. The caution is understandable. Corporate discipline can be fleeting. Getting paid a little up front makes sense.

Just as things heat up with Russia!