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For TUI in particular, I think the SP suffered from a sell off of people or investors that do not want to trade in €. There will be more pressure on the SP in the coming weeks with more brokers sorting out their paperwork and effectively pushing investors to decide whether to trade in € or sell.
OR maybe it happened because of overtourism protests in the Canary Islands? (unlikely imho)
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/spain-tourism-protests-tui-tenerife-b2545455.html
Same for IAG, right after positive results and positive Moody's re-rating.. total nonsense.
Put together some news maybe had cross knock-down effects and might explain a bit but not sure if it's enough to make most airlines lose more than 6% in just two days:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13423579/Brits-severe-summer-holiday-disruption-Boeing-safety-crisis.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/easyjet-ceo-johan-lundgren-step-down-b2545997.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/easyjet-ceo-johan-lundgren-step-down-b2545997.html
Https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/air/tui-ranked-among-top-10-best-big-company-employers-in-uk
Not only that.
IIs buy FTSE 100 stocks for their dividend returns. So if TUI doesn't even mention that there will be dividends at some point, it is not even considered for their portfolios, especially with the impending market change and current travel industry risks. So even if quarterly results are great, the returns from dividends make it or breake it for big guns to enter.
I'm tempted to go and edit this Wikipedia page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/177_(number)
to add that 177 is also the most stubborn and annoying resistance level for IAG in 2024.
Can't wait for the long weekend so I'll stop looking at this utter nonsense.
Been here since IPO, didn't really believe first offer was to going through so I held my shares even after the surge. This time looks like it's going to go through. I have never experienced a buyout, what happens if I hold the shares?
Will they just sit there no changes, just different owner? are they going to be moved to another stock exchange? or will I be forced to sell?
Given the geopolitical situation I guess we all know that this week and the next are going to be really painful (for no reason imho since TUI is completely unaffected by middle east turmoil but anyway..)
However! from a chart point of view, looks like TUI simply bounced off (quite hard) from resistance levels and retraced, possibly filling some gaps?
Any chartist here that can give an educated guesstimate on what's going on from a stats perspective?
Given the geopolitical situation I guess we all know that this week and the next are going to be a pain.
However! from a chart point of view, looks like IAG simply bounced off (quite hard) from resistance levels and retraced, possibly filling some gaps?
Any chartist here that can give an educated guesstimate on what's going on from a stats perspective?
Well same here, to be fair if we knew exactly how markets react to things we wouldn't be here discussing, and we would be somewhere in the Pacific sipping Dom Perignon.. Anyway glad to be proven wrong for once..
BUT I still feel this is not a real reaction to the news. To me looks like either markets were already anticipating the reaction from Tehran and the obvious Israeli flawless defence OR they are waiting for Israel to decide on the type and time of retaliation before hitting sell
Clued, of course not all stocks will be affected but clearly there will be downward pressure across most stocks and markets. Uncertainty and fear only trigger sells.
For Oil Gas and Defence, of course that's a different perspective, but mind that this war is already priced in most defence stocks and Iranian oil is off the market anyway so can't see them making big jumps up either.
I would expect gold and bitcoin go up though.
But for IAG, brace ourselves, this is going to take a long time..
I think all travel stocks and the markets in general will shed a good 10% across the board on Monday. This because more than what happened, it is uncertainty that drives those fast and panicked sells.
Mind that it only took Iran to claim they would attack Israel to sink IAG and other travel stocks by 4%.
Now since Israel keeps saying they want to respond, I think the markets will take it badly and this will last for weeks.
Er..more like 300 missiles and drones: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-68737710
Expect a huge drop tomorrow..and then several weeks (months?) to recover..2£ maybe by October
Good thing they already reopened airspace though, so maybe if they don't start tit-for-tat we might not end up in WW3:
"The air space was reopened this morning, an indication that the immediate threat is over. But Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has said the confrontation with Iran was 'not over yet'. The question now is about a possible Israeli reaction. Israeli authorities have vowed to retaliate to any direct attack from Iran, and the country’s war cabinet met overnight to discuss the situation. Iran, meanwhile, has warned of a severe response."
I think it's more related to this interview:
https://www.ch-aviation.com/news/139145-iag-willing-to-give-up-40-of-air-europas-frequencies-ceo
Senor Gallego has no intention of dropping Air Europa, and actually wants to buy it to then give up 40% of its existing routes??? and then he also wants to buy TAP???
Senor, too much sangria, you got to go, and fast..