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I'm tempted to go and edit this Wikipedia page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/177_(number)
to add that 177 is also the most stubborn and annoying resistance level for IAG in 2024.
Can't wait for the long weekend so I'll stop looking at this utter nonsense.
Been here since IPO, didn't really believe first offer was to going through so I held my shares even after the surge. This time looks like it's going to go through. I have never experienced a buyout, what happens if I hold the shares?
Will they just sit there no changes, just different owner? are they going to be moved to another stock exchange? or will I be forced to sell?
Given the geopolitical situation I guess we all know that this week and the next are going to be really painful (for no reason imho since TUI is completely unaffected by middle east turmoil but anyway..)
However! from a chart point of view, looks like TUI simply bounced off (quite hard) from resistance levels and retraced, possibly filling some gaps?
Any chartist here that can give an educated guesstimate on what's going on from a stats perspective?
Given the geopolitical situation I guess we all know that this week and the next are going to be a pain.
However! from a chart point of view, looks like IAG simply bounced off (quite hard) from resistance levels and retraced, possibly filling some gaps?
Any chartist here that can give an educated guesstimate on what's going on from a stats perspective?
Well same here, to be fair if we knew exactly how markets react to things we wouldn't be here discussing, and we would be somewhere in the Pacific sipping Dom Perignon.. Anyway glad to be proven wrong for once..
BUT I still feel this is not a real reaction to the news. To me looks like either markets were already anticipating the reaction from Tehran and the obvious Israeli flawless defence OR they are waiting for Israel to decide on the type and time of retaliation before hitting sell
Clued, of course not all stocks will be affected but clearly there will be downward pressure across most stocks and markets. Uncertainty and fear only trigger sells.
For Oil Gas and Defence, of course that's a different perspective, but mind that this war is already priced in most defence stocks and Iranian oil is off the market anyway so can't see them making big jumps up either.
I would expect gold and bitcoin go up though.
But for IAG, brace ourselves, this is going to take a long time..
I think all travel stocks and the markets in general will shed a good 10% across the board on Monday. This because more than what happened, it is uncertainty that drives those fast and panicked sells.
Mind that it only took Iran to claim they would attack Israel to sink IAG and other travel stocks by 4%.
Now since Israel keeps saying they want to respond, I think the markets will take it badly and this will last for weeks.
Er..more like 300 missiles and drones: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-68737710
Expect a huge drop tomorrow..and then several weeks (months?) to recover..2£ maybe by October
Good thing they already reopened airspace though, so maybe if they don't start tit-for-tat we might not end up in WW3:
"The air space was reopened this morning, an indication that the immediate threat is over. But Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has said the confrontation with Iran was 'not over yet'. The question now is about a possible Israeli reaction. Israeli authorities have vowed to retaliate to any direct attack from Iran, and the country’s war cabinet met overnight to discuss the situation. Iran, meanwhile, has warned of a severe response."
I think it's more related to this interview:
https://www.ch-aviation.com/news/139145-iag-willing-to-give-up-40-of-air-europas-frequencies-ceo
Senor Gallego has no intention of dropping Air Europa, and actually wants to buy it to then give up 40% of its existing routes??? and then he also wants to buy TAP???
Senor, too much sangria, you got to go, and fast..
Yesterday's drop was just a technical hit of resistance levels, imho. The article was no news about nothing:
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/eu-regulators-have-not-sought-feedback-iags-air-europa-deal-sources-say-2024-04-09/
"The European Commission, which acts as the EU's competition enforcer, is due to issue a statement of objections to IAG around the end of April, setting out specific concerns that could lead to a veto of the deal if not addressed, the sources said. The EU executive - which is scheduled to decide on the deal by July 15 - and IAG declined to comment."
I do agree walking away would be best for IAG, plenty to improve in BA and Vueling with the £££ saved from this botched deal.
Reading the summary:
https://www.tuigroup.com/damfiles/default/tuigroup-15/en/investors/3_Share/Admission-FSE/TUI-AG---Summary-Document---Convenience-Translation.pdf-b88a98b7cd45813b7c8d2b9dc80be560.pdf
Important info to note:
Type, class, nominal amount and ISIN. The Shares are registered shares with a notional par value (the proportionate
amount of the share capital of each share) of €1.00. The ISIN of the Shares is DE000TUAG505.
Currency and number of shares. Our Shares are denominated in euros. As of the date of this Summary Document,
we have 507,431,033 Existing Shares and 74,583,729 Conditional Shares outstanding. All Existing Shares are fully
paid up and all Conditional Shares will be fully paid up at the time of issuance.
"Dividend and dividend policy. The terms of the syndicated loan agreement of our revolving credit facility provided by
KfW as a governmental lender, which exists in the amount of €550 million as of the date of this Summary Document
(the "KfW Facility"), generally do not permit us to pay a dividend until the KfW Facility is fully redeemed. Even if we
return to profitability, we will not be able to pay dividends for the financial year ending on 30 September 2024 as
long as the KfW Facility remains in place."
SO, from my understanding all shares from LSE will be just converted in € and we won't need to do absolutely anything and the only change will be that the corresponding value will be in €. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Also interesting info about Alexey but that's for another post.
one concern about the improving capabilities of artificial intelligence (ai) is the potential for an increased volume of cyber attacks. to counter this, companies will need better defences, which should benefit cyber security company darktrace.
a year ago, it released research showing a 135 per cent increase in novel “social engineering attacks”. in other words, fraudsters are using generative ai products to write emails convincing people to share information and passwords.
it is not that darktrace is in desperate need of a tailwind. for the six months to december, revenue grew 27 per cent year on year to $330mn (£261mn), and adjusted operating profit rose 119 per cent to $71mn, due to increased “scale efficiencies”.
the theory with software companies is their margins expand as they grow. research and development costs should not increase as quickly as revenue because the product only needs tweaks once someone has designed it. that does not always play out because other bureaucratic and marketing costs stack up. the 105 per cent annual recurring revenue retention rate shows customers are generally happy with darktrace’s product.
alongside all this seemingly positive news, chief strategy officer nicole eagan decided to sell £3.9mn of shares across two transactions on march 15 and 19. on march 20, chief executive poppy gustafsson sold a further £701,000.
darktrace’s share price is still fighting to recover from a sell-off at the end of 2021, running through 2022. a combination of peel hunt’s ‘sell note”, “channel stuffing” accusations by *****essential capital management and rising interest rates meant the share price dropped 70 per cent between mid-2021 and mid-2023.
however, since then, an ey audit has cleared darktrace of *****essential’s accusations, and a series of positive results have shown profitability improving. the share price has risen 70 per cent in the last year, which could explain why the directors have cashed out.
directors’ deals, march 15-22 2024
sell
darktrace
nicole eagan
15-19 mar 24
price (p)
482
aggregate value (£)
3,939,994
poppy gustafsson (ceo)
20 mar 24
price (p)
468
aggregate value (£)
701,310
one concern about the improving capabilities of artificial intelligence (ai) is the potential for an increased volume of cyber attacks. to counter this, companies will need better defences, which should benefit cyber security company darktrace.
a year ago, it released research showing a 135 per cent increase in novel “social engineering attacks”. in other words, fraudsters are using generative ai products to write emails convincing people to share information and passwords.
it is not that darktrace is in desperate need of a tailwind. for the six months to december, revenue grew 27 per cent year on year to $330mn (£261mn), and adjusted operating profit rose 119 per cent to $71mn, due to increased “scale efficiencies”.
the theory with software companies is their margins expand as they grow. research and development costs should not increase as quickly as revenue because the product only needs tweaks once someone has designed it. that does not always play out because other bureaucratic and marketing costs stack up. the 105 per cent annual recurring revenue retention rate shows customers are generally happy with darktrace’s product.
alongside all this seemingly positive news, chief strategy officer nicole eagan decided to sell £3.9mn of shares across two transactions on march 15 and 19. on march 20, chief executive poppy gustafsson sold a further £701,000.
darktrace’s share price is still fighting to recover from a sell-off at the end of 2021, running through 2022. a combination of peel hunt’s ‘sell note”, “channel stuffing” accusations by *****essential capital management and rising interest rates meant the share price dropped 70 per cent between mid-2021 and mid-2023.
however, since then, an ey audit has cleared darktrace of *****essential’s accusations, and a series of positive results have shown profitability improving. the share price has risen 70 per cent in the last year, which could explain why the directors have cashed out.
this month, the company confirmed the deal with swisscom to sell its italian business for €8bn (£6.87bn). it then confirmed it would be halving its dividend and starting a buyback programme while being able to pay off some of its over €50bn debt pile.
an optimist might point to its organic service revenue which grew 4.7 per cent in the last quarter. in particular, the company highlighted its vodacom businesses in africa, where service revenue rose 8.8 per cent, while its cloud and “internet of things” service grew over 20 per cent.
in a vote of confidence for the direction of the business, chief financial officer luka mucic has just purchased £1.69mn worth of shares in the company.
after almost a decade of underperforming, history suggests a turnaround is not imminent. but at least, trading at just 10 times its forward earnings, vodafone’s valuation may look like an opportunity to some investors.
directors’ deals, march 15-22 2024