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Thanks again to Hexam, Golitha and iParsnip for the calculations and information support, I sat on this decision for too long and today I decided to bite the bullet and get the rights.
It's going to be a hell of a ride in the next months as I, like Golitha, am invested more than I'm comfortable with but at least my average will go down and that's a fact. So all in all, if it goes well I minimised the loss, if it goes ****storm well then at least it's going to be like falling from the second floor instead of the fifth.
iParsnip I am absolutely crap with calculations but like Hexam said "It really is a case for me of looking beyond just the maths. This drop however you work it out is severe but if you have confidence in TUI so think it will reverse and are willing to risk more capital then buying is the way to go just as with any other investment but if you have doubts or have risked as much as you want to already then reducing or maintaining your holding would make more sense."
GLA!
No worries and thanks again!!
I also made an error as I meant the sp to go to £10 to make me break even with buying rights and to £15 in case I don't buy the rights. Shares now at abysmal levels and I think they will go down further before end of RI, however since being promised no more RI and summertime ahead I think sp will recover. I won't break even for a couple of years but I'd be better off with a better average.
You are right when you said that the value associated with RI was around £13.80 on announcement. Unfortunately, at the time of typing, these are now -93%. So basically selling them now would be like selling my actual shares at a loss. Selling the rights at this level would be like trying to stop Niagara falls with a napkin!
In other words, if I sell the rights now, it is going to be as if no RI was announced and I still had 2000 shares at -75% and sold half of them at an eyewatering loss, correct?
What I mean is that looks like if I don't but the rights the value of my shares will be further slashed from -75% to maybe even -90%?
The way my broker is showing the split is also confusing as the normal shares are now showed as if they are valued at less than half the market value they were before the rights were assigned.
Hexam you truly are the kindest person on LSE! thank you!
Appreciated the numbers a lot, thanks! In fact, based on those, I do think sp will be higher than 602p (not on April 24, but around May/June).
BUT, I am already 75% down on my initial investment so if I don't take up the rights I will be basically worse off and instead of 75% down, my shares will be worth a lot less, possibly around -85% or worse.
Basically, with not taking the rights, I'd need the sp to go to at least ~£1.5 to break even, correct?
But if I buy the rights I'd "only" need the sp to go to around £1 maybe?
Hi Hexam and iParsnip, I feel I'm on the same boat, I've got 5334 rights so you do the math how much skin I have in it.. I am fairly sure the sp will go down in the next months up until maybe June when they'll disclose summer numbers (assuming full planes and full cruises as many are claiming). My original investment is down 75%, so according to this situation and my market feeling I should sell the rights. However I'm still not sure it would be better to sell the rights.
My question is, if I sell the rights what happens to my original investment? I know the rights and the shares are two separate entities but as of now the actual value of my investment is split in half between the shares and the rights, feels like if I sell the rights I am basically losing half of my original investment? ie selling at a loss of 50% of it? ie after the RI is done I will find the same number of shares but with half of their market value? also rights are 92% down which doesn't make sense?
Holder since pre-pandemic, still -30% down but holding.
I've seen a lot in the last 3 years, the pandemic, German Gov massive loans, two rights issues and countless drops from new variants and whatnot. But I've never ever thought TUI was to go under, Germans have too much skin in the game to let it fail, however, the other reason TUI is still afloat despite all this is our friend Alexey who opened his wallet when needed. The guy seems a proper financial entrepreneur so I don't think he would care much of Russian current politics, BUT the whole western world is now considering to put sanctions on Russian companies and funds. As BoJo said: “Be in no doubt that if Russian companies are prevented from raising capital on the UK financial markets, if we unpeel the facade of Russian ownership of companies, of property, it will start to hurt.”
So yes TUI is going to be impacted badly, and I think markets are starting to price this in, this is not a normal retrace.
GLA DYOR
Their EOY report was positive indeed, it's really unfortunate that the market just doesn't care and Dark is literally getting constantly bombarded by shorters and day-traders. I don't know how long Poppy can keep big investors from leaving though, ML case is also a constant pain and providing a (baseless) reason for jackals to play with the SP.
I'm down 55% and I'm genuinely worried that big investors will lose patience and dump and thus it'll take like 5 years to get back to FT100.
This chat sounds more like an AA chat forum, like "Hi I'm Marcinkus, I am down 39% on DT but I'm considering to add since I need to at least beat that hideous PH pricing!" I'm sure everyone has similar stories, apart form Charles that surely has unlimited funds and is 30% in the blue since keeps adding..
Just a bit of perspective on what was said about the lock-up situation. I hope I don't sound a simpleton but follow me on this: IPO was 250p, went up to 1000p and then down to 650p. To anyone seeing that, plus all those positive info that JayneC posted earlier, just shows that DT clearly has a rock solid base of PIs that would like to buy no matter what (hype or non-hype). The little trick played by PeelHunt actually showed exactly that.
SO consider this and then think of the Initial Investors, moved by greed like everyone else in the market, would certainly not miss this juicy opportunity. I'm quite sure they would probably be still happy with "just" a 250% return on their initial investment, surely talking millions here.
Whether they still totally believe in the company or not, the most logical thing for them is to dump their freed shares, get the money in, have the SP hitting rock bottom (450 maybe?), and then buy back again at just 100% IPO price and then become LTH again. Why wouldn't they? I would!
I saw someone posted about the end of lock-up being on the 27th, but looking at if from the Admission date I think it is on Nov 2nd, any expectations on how many will unload? Feels like quite a substantial number of investors were keen to dump for a quick buck this week, so now that the SP somewhat recovered I'm worried those unlocked shares will flood the market..
HKK & 4ttf, you both got me wrong here, I do want the hype but only so that I can get out of this asap as this volatility is utterly annoying. I'd just go back to side line and wait. I thought this was the right moment to get in but clearly not.
Thank you, as per the lock-up agreements quite a sizeable chunk was already dumped in the market early October: https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/darktrace-investors-750p-stock-sale-sparks-volatility-in-share-price
Surely there might be more and the 180 days deadline is basically end of this week. Only time will tell.
I've been following DARK since IPO and I've never felt it was valued right since no actual profit, and yet saw the SP soaring day after day. Then WISE came up and I diverted that money into it since seemed less hyped and with stronger fundamentals. Got out with a decent gain, and since I always kept an eye on DARK I decided to get in at 780...now I see my thoughts weren't too far from what I feared at IPO and that fundamentals still can hit hard the SP once someone shouts about the emperors new clothes..
I genuinely expected a retrace after months of going up and then since hype still strong reap the gains of the rebound. But we're now -30% in less than a week, looks like this is not just a simple adjustment, so something else is missing here.
Remember we're small fish, noone on this board can genuinely think they can move the SP with a couple of comments (rampers/de-rampers) so some big greedy funds that entered at IPO just unloaded all their assets, still basically 300% up compared to IPO, and cash in on our shoulders.
I hope that FTSE 100 inclusion tomorrow will indeed move other big guns to "institutionally" step in so we can breathe again, but not so sure honestly.. I mean I'm 13% down and I think others here might be 20-30% down, this will take months to go back to 1000p.
Well, GL to all those that held tight, I got worried that today would do another -7% and sold yesterday for peanuts. But looking at today's performance so far, looks like I fell for just a classic treeshake..lesson learnt
Possible, but also unlikely, as this plan is in the making and no timeline was shared. When the HMRC broke the news with that fine to the CEO (from 2017!) the SP went down "only" 5%.. This is a much much bigger event, -30% in just a week, no RNS, no price monitoring, no company news, no analysis from any of the usual finance websites. Too big for a MM treeshake, this is not normal, someone in the know must have unloaded a massive chunk of shares but still they would need to declare it. Something is brewing
Hello! nice to see it spiked 40% already, however I would like to see some revenue/sales data or a chart to see how we got there before investing. I'm a bit concerned that this 40+% is going to retrace badly tomorrow, sort of Deliveroo style. This is a small company after all, there is a lot of hype even from LSE market itself. Also, they declared that there will be a stabilisation manager that has the right to tweak the stock price as they please which I don't really like as a starter..
It does look daunting but this analysis seems correct:
https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2021/07/06/the-tui-share-price-has-doubled-should-i-buy-now/
I guess we need to look at the big picture and wait for better times
Nuri I can agree that the company is not really re-inventing the wheel, their source of revenue is based on the big numbers of people that need to save money moving it to their home country, the more the better, and I can see that number can only go up, especially after Brexit. Also, their balance sheet is rock solid. However, their business model is not super innovative so that might suffer from aggressive competitors in the long term.. so I think it's a good stock, by the looks of it it can easily become a blue chip, so small increases but steady. Probably not super exciting for traders.
Anyway this morning I tried again to enter at 850p and still couldn't..and now we're above 900..