Member Info for Manyana

Back in 2007 when they discovered Hook Head it was all go to develop it but, as usual, O'Reilly, like the baby with its toys went looking for bigger fish and Hook Head fell by the wayside as it was "only" 70m barrels.

So, in 2007, when oil was about $115 a barrel and projects were expensive to develop it was put on ice but now, with oil at about $60 a barrel and an expected development cost of $25 a barrel it is surely a good prospect but it is this jumping like fleas on a dog's back over the years by O'Reilly that has given potential investors in Providence a bad taste in their mouth.

You see this last week when the approval came through that it did not do a single thing to the benefit of the share price because there are still the doubts about the $10m. Nobody trusts Providence to do things right as we see with the wait for the $10m.

And yet when you consider that there is 360m barrels of oil at say $60 with a development cost of $25 a barrel you see a profit of 360m * $35 = $12.6billion. So, effectively they are selling $6.3billion profit to APEC for $100m as that is APEC's share of the $200m as the other $100m which is Providence's and Lansdowne's will be paid back through oil revenue.

And yet APEC cannot come up with $10m.

Is it any wonder I have said on numerous occasions this is a lousy deal and I would gladly see APEC vanish into the mist.

So in 2007, Hook Head was all go for a drilling but as we see twelve years on he is still talking about a farm out.

https://www.energy-pedia.com/news/ireland/providence-agrees-sosina-farm-out-and-prepares-for-hook-head-drilling

The deal, after the discovery, was that Sosina would drill a well by end of 2011 but when that did not happen their share returned to Providence. Now you see they are talking about farming it out again.

I am not sure what you were looking for but for a review of all the prospects in the Providence portfolio you have to go to where baby is beating the drum.

For that I suggest you read the following and go down to the bottom where you will find a list of them all with what is proposed.

http://www.providenceresources.com/sites/default/files/OIL%20CAPITAL%20CONFERENCE%2C%20LONDON%20-%20OCTOBER%202018.pdf

The notion that Hook Head has 70m barrels can be found at the following article:

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/providence-shares-soar-over-70m-barrel-potential-26317135.html

That gave a boost to the share price which then vanished like the wind. In fact, about that time Providence had 6 billion shares with a price of 8p (of which Daddy was holding 45% of the equity). Wouldn't we like that pro rata now with 600m shares and a price of 80p. They subsequently did a 100:1 consolidation down to 60m shares and then to raise money diluted that back on a 1:10 to come to the current approx. 600m shares.

What have most of us long in the tooth complained about from Providence over the years? The constant chasing their tails on "looking" for the holy grail without getting on with developing Barryroe and other opportunities such as Hook Head, Dunmore etc.

Because of the way the Barryroe deal is structured with APEC and presuming APEC are going to come up with the money and the development through COSL the 100% focus for the company over the next year or two must surely be concentrated on Barryroe and keep costs to a minimum.

After all, Providence will not make any real money out of Barryroe before a lot of oil has flowed and it has paid back the money it will owe for the 50% development. If the field is uneconomic Providence will pay nothing to APEC even though it will get $19m before the first well is spudded.

Once oil starts to flow Providence will get 20% of the oil revenue and Lansdowne will get 5% until the "loan" is paid off at Libor+5%. Once that is achieved, Providence will get 40% and Lansdowne will get 10% but how long will it be before they reach that stage? 5 years perhaps.

So what is the point of carrying a group of technicians for that period since it would not make sense to actively seek another Druid/Drombeg themselves? Of course if somebody wanted to come in and take operatorship of say Newgrange or Dunquin , carry the exploration costs and the development costs on another shared asset basis at zero cost during that time so be it but Providence is far better off sitting on its hands and letting others do the heavy lifting at minimal cost until that day comes.

So the slimming down of the staff is not only a good thing and a cost saving process but it also stops the "headless chickens" approach Providence has been guilty of over the last twelve years at least which has had great potential but never come to fruition as it chased its tail in numerous exploration activities without doing any real heavy lifting in development other than the abortive Singleton, Dunquin and the Druid/Drombeg which all came up dud.

For example, what ever happened to Hook Head which is said to have 70m barrels of oil when it was drilled in 2007 and they found a 75ft oil column? In the North Sea, 70m barrels of oil would be regarded as a decent field but not for Providence back then who regarded it as small fry as they were after bigger fish. So, who needs O'Sullivan et al who cost you a fortune and spend more time looking rather than developing?

So once the Barryroe development is under way why not get a big partner to develop Hook Head under similar terms to the APEC deal at minimal cost to Providence. Back in 2007 the price of oil was high at about $115 a barrel and the cost of development was high but the market is far more realistic now at about $60 so why sit on your hands with that one when it is in shallow water like Barryroe, is relatively easy to develop and could be linked into Barryroe if necessary.

A killing of about 30% for some today. Knowledge is a wonderful thing.

A bit like the old Irish saying "May you be in heaven half and hour before the devil knows you are dead". Translates as " Know that the survey has been approved well before the MMs get to hear of it."

Fortunately kept faith and added to my pile the other day. Now let us see the colour of the money and the whole thing can really take off.

Our minister of state has been having a ball holding meetings over expensive dinners.

Perhaps if he got off his butt and signed the survey for EXOLA it would be more important even if he did it in a restaurant.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/minister-spent-3200-on-policy-formation-meetings-in-top-restaurants-and-hotels-38384237.html

I wonder how ranger4 knows what is "up" with Providence. Let us look at a few facts.

The approval will be given because Providence are paying about €365,000 a year license fee for Barryroe. So if the minister was to refuse, Providence could claim about €4m for fees already paid over the years. All licenses incur yearly payments and at present Barryroe encompasses about 1000km2 at a cost of €365 a km2 per year.

If the survey was prohibited Providence could claim it had bought a pig in a poke and want its money back. And, by the way, it proves that Brid Smith is out of the trees if she thinks that it would cost the government nothing to do away with all of the licenses. Perhaps people do not realise it, but DCCAE has a budget of about $650m a year. Where does all that money come from and what do they spend it on and how much do they raise from all the licenses around Ireland developed or not?

Secondly it is not over until it is over and so the $10m is there in the system until we are told it is a dead duck and was all a big lie. We have not heard that yet and Providence must be somewhat confident it is there or why would it rub egg on its face by giving all these "backstops".

And for all the shenanigans there is still 340m barrels of oil and more in Barryroe unless we have been told lies for the last seven years, Providence might have diluted funds but no debt so why are we in "end game"?

Perhaps Ranger would be better off reading "Krapps last Tape" while the rest of us watch out for the real "Endgame".

EOG is only a conversion of an LO to a FEL.

When you take out an LO you have two years to turn the option into a license depending on the depth of the potential well. up to 200 metres becomes a Standard Exploration and deeper becomes a Deepwater and if you are brave enough to venture further out it becomes a Frontier Exploration.

That is all EOG have done. If they had not requested this upgrade it they would have lost the license option they bid on as you have normally two years to p**s or get off the pot but in EOG's case they had until June 2019 to apply for the upgrade which they did and which now has been granted.

So there was no way they could be refused this upgrade or they could have sued DCCAE and the minister. At least the EOG sanction means there is still some life in DCCAE and the Minister.

Yes Maggie made two major mistakes; Hong Kong and selling council houses both of which have come home to haunt the UK.

Have You been following the chaos which has been going on in Hong Kong for the last eight weeks.

Since HSBC Hong Kong is on one end of this transfer and they are trying to get greater independence from China It is possible they are disrupting finance between the two. After all the originators of the money are in China.

The biggest mistake England made was to hand Hong Kong back to the Chinese. Thatcher did not want to but China said it would take it by force so Thatcher gave in. And what are the Chinese trying to do now? Take it over by force. Tienanmen square all over again.

I think IOLAR has some way to go. The estimate for the drill was "Drilling is expected to take between 100 – 150 daysQ.

IOLAR spudded on the 25th May so they have now been drilling for 73 days. On that estimate of 100 to 150 days we are still some way off.

My purchase has gone through as a "sell". Any purchase under 7.35 will be classed as a sell as the break even point is Ask+Bid/2 currently( 7.50+7.20)/2 = 7.35. Above = buy; below = sell.

The do not need to keep John O'Sullivan. They have Angus McCoss who has a far better track record than O'Sullivan.

Not only that but McCoss is a "lucky" oil man whereas O'Sullivan has little to show for his years and of course if they sign everything over to CNOOC which I suspect this cleaning of the ground is in aid of they will not need him there either as I am sure CNOOC have their own.

http://www.tullowoil.com/about-us/board-of-directors/angus-mccoss

And remember, last year Angus McCoss was appointed Senior Independent Director of Providence as well as a non-exec. As such his role encompasses "circumstances where the Board of Directors is undergoing a period of stress the Senior Independent Director has a vital role in intervening to resolve issues of concern. "

So McCoss has a vital role to play in Providence far in excess of his duties as a non-exec director.

In for a penny, in for a pound. Could not resist temptation at these crazy prices. If APEC and DCCAE come through share price 50p. Odds of 7:1 are better than on a horse.

One reason for the possible delay is to see if An Taisce are going to lodge a request for a judicial review.

Under the rules, they have three months from the date of approval to issue it but they cannot wait until the end of the three months.

The first step in the judicial review procedure involves the mandatory “leave stage”. At this stage an application for leave to bring judicial review proceedings must first be made. So if An Taisce intend to seek a judicial review it must be in this stage or very close to it. "An applicant for judicial review in Ireland must start by applying for leave to seek judicial review. This acts as a filter of entirely spurious or unfounded matters."

So An Taisce must either put up or shut up and it has to do so well before the three months so perhaps that is why we are still waiting until this stage is passed.

Where has all the money gone?

December 2018 they had €7,617m and now they have $ 1.45 million which equates to €1.3m. So they have spent €6.3m in six months on what?

It looks to me that they are setting themselves up to sell themselves. After all, with John O'Sullivan gone O'Reilly will be the only executive director with Pat Plunkett, Angus McCoss as the non-execs and the others falling by they wayside but I fail to see what Philip O’Quigley is doing there until 2020 as he runs Falcon Oil. Perhaps he refused to go.

Since any technical process has to be approved by a geological technical director who now does that with O'Sullivan gone - "with immediate effect", no less. What happened there? Did he spill O'Reilly's milk? McCoss is a very experienced geologist so perhaps he can sign off the technical specs if any come up.

So you have a very Tullow Oil focused board with one executive director and two from Tullow one ex and one current. There is of course on further possible partner if Providence get into bed with Lansdowne and Boldy came on board.

Any suggestions as to what is going on? Of course, all the technical work could be passed to COSL if they were to take over Providence.

The Galway Races do not finish until tomorrow 4th August and you can be sure Sean Canney will either have taken this week off as holiday or will be doing his ministerial duty of pressing the flesh until it is over. There are more government shenanigans go on at that meeting that have nothing to do with racing. You just have to ask Bertie Ahern who frequented it so often during his "I made money out of horse racing days " to know how influential it is.

I presume he will then take Monday as a day of recovery and a bank holiday before returning to the fray on Tuesday when hopefully he will sign off the Exola suvey.

Since banks do not seem to work at weekends to transfer money, it will either have arrived by Friday or it will not get into an Irish bank account until Tuesday so I expect if it has arrived we will hear and if it hasn't he will be hoping for a day of grace and issue the RNS on Tuesday.

There is an old Irish saying "All the world would not make a racehorse from a donkey.” I hope this is not the history of Providence.

Irish Stock Exchange is closed on Monday.

http://stockmarket-holidays.com/irish-stock-exchange-holidays/87/

It is a holiday in The Irish Republic, replacing the old 15th August holy day of years ago, but Providence trades on London so that is not a holiday in London and RNS information on London shares waits for no man.

Neither is it a bank holiday in Northern Ireland so a part of Ireland will be at work .

Phoebus,

If it is down to the Petroleum Affairs Division of the Department of Communications for the delay why is it that Providence keeps issuing "last chance" messages?

Surely they could just say the money will be forthcoming when the survey is approved but they keep saying "money in the post" time after time again. Perhaps they are waiting on Postman Pat to deliver it.

No. There has to be something wrong with the money if APEC has actually forwarded the money and it has ended up in some deep, dark pit somewhere. It does not take this long to transfer money between HSBC Hong Kong and HSBC UK/Ireland.

By the way, this smells of Transocean where O'Reilly "forgot" to tell us about the court case. And not only that forgot to tell us, due to mechanical failure, that Transocean had failed to drill the sidetrack in Barryroe which if it had been successful would have speeded up the development.

So what is the betting on Monday of either another "backstop", the money arriving or the money has vanished into a big dark pi and can't be found? Even money the lot????

I should have finished a sentence which left out an important element.

"Surely Pat Plunkett who was chairman of Tullow Oil and Angus McCoss who is still a director of Tullow Oil both of whom are on the Providence board..."

Plunkett was rumoured to be heading a group of ex-Tullow executives to set up an oil company called T5 Oil and Gas which seems to be in existence at http://t5oilandgas.com/index.html. It seems to have some interest in a prospect in Senegal.

Then on the Providence board you have Philip O'Quigley who is also chief executive of Falcon Oil with interests in Australia. https://falconoilandgas.com/

Strange bedfellows but you can be sure they are there to guarantee Tony does not get voted out of Providence no matter what mess he makes as they take nice non-exec payments.