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Are you still talking about Newgrange?

Did you read the report from the AGM where it mentioned that Newgrange was leaking methane? Now, methane is far more deadly than CO2 and if it is leaking from Newgrange there is not a snowball's chance in hell that they would ever get permission to develop it.

You can thank not only BridSmith but the EU Directives and also methane is very expensive to handle when it is mixed in with oil. You are now not allowed to flare it off.

Of more interest is the statement in the AGM which says "JUNE 2019 - SEPT 2019 PAYMENT EXTENSIONS AGREED WITH APEC"

So rather than sitting on their hands Providence has been in constant contact with APEC agreeing the extensions whereas from the reports they have just been sitting waiting for the bank account to bulge.

That means all these extensions are mutually agreed so Providence must be well aware what is causing the delay. It would be nice if they would inform us also.

Agreed but I don't think they are third party financiers. I think it is CNOOC especially when you see they made £3billion profit in the first six months of the year and overall they are worth £40billion.

What is $10m and $15m to them?

Did Tony said that "Between all the different Chinese consortium's it's a spiders web." or was it your impression. If it were he then he has probably hit the nail on the head as to why the money is delayed and also makes sense why Point 5 on today's agenda, "allocation shares to APEC" was suspended.

It is good to see that those shares are protected by the shareholders. We were not aware of that fact until today which will please some on here who were worried they had already been transferred to APEC..

I suspect we are seeing a change of "ownership" of the APEC holding in Barryroe and it will pass to CNOOC International, the new name for NEXEN. When you consider APEC is just a front for CNOOC and if they drill Barryroe it will be COSL who do the drilling, which is wholly owned by CNOOC, but they have just got time on their hands now that IOLAR is not going to be developed.

Nexen swllowed up by CNOOC International

“On January 14, 2019, Nexen Energy ULC integrated into CNOOC International, becoming one team under one brand,”

CNOOC website https://www.cnoocltd.com/

"Jordan Harkins, Team Lead – Communications, UK, said, “The events were a great example of collaboration, with our teams in Calgary, Aberdeen and Uxbridge working closely with colleagues in Dakar and Dublin to make the events a success.”

So I could see APEC also being swallowed up in CNOOC Internatioal who would then become the owner, driver of the EXOLA share of Barryroe.

Hopefully, if it is the case, the sooner the better and if CNOOC international took it over you can be sure it will be developed double quick tine.
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Let's be more specific.

Did O'Reilly say the APEC deal was dead or did he say it was ongoing and what stage is it at?

Surely among all the big mouths there somebody could at least get some answers to that.

As I said before, I never attend these idiot sessions as you get nothing but drivel unless you ask hard questions which they must answer.

So, what is the status of the deal with APEC, dead or alive? Simple and Mr. Tony, no bull**** please.

As for his family owning shares, in days gone by Daddy owned 45% of the equity in Providence. Went bankrupt and the banks sold it for him to recoup some of their losses.

Regarding the Newgrange license, they spent a load of money doing a survey of it and found it had about 600 pockmarks which indicated oil had been there and leaked, some might still be there but the chances were that the top seal was not strong enough and like Dunquin North oil had been there but had depressurised and all the oil had flowed away.

Add to that the IOLAR fiasco where another "good thing" came up dry and you can see the risks associated with Newgrange which makes it a probability of about 10% success and 90% failure. Not the best horse to be backing.

Since there is quite a substantial yearly charge associated with holding on to licenses and given the risks associated with Newgrange the chances of it ever being drilled are probably next to nil so which continue to pay for it?

O'Reilly seems to finally have the penny drop and realise you might have been born with a "silver spoon" in your mouth but it has gone rusty and you need to start looking after the pennies. I believe Pat Plunkett has finally got through to him and put him right.

And given the Brid Smith cabal how many of the Providence licenses do you think will ever be developed if she gets her way, one or two at the most, so why hold on to them and pay the fees?

Phoebus,

Every Friday I read the column entitled "Ask Audrey" in the Irish Examiner. I suggest you read it and ask her for her suggestions what she thinks Tony should do to resolve the issue because, apart from her sh***, which is deliberate, you come out with the greatest load of sh*** that I have heard for years and then you scatter it about.

So you want our Indian homosexual to as XI to send the money to Providence. Perhaps you should set up a Go-Funding web page, collect a load of money and go yourself. You are so full of it they probably would give it to get rid of you.

You totally miss the point, by the way. The $10m is a sop in the ocean. APEC did a deal to develop the whole of Barryroe which comes to $200m shared between Providence and APEC. APEC carry the whole of the $200m until such time as enough oil is sold for the Providence and Lansdowne share to be paid back through oil revenues.

So, if APEC are remiss about the $10m what is going to happen with the $15m which is earmarked for the drilling and which is then followed by all the development costs. After this fiasco, would you trust them to pay up?

Pat Plunkett will be there and I wonder if Angus McCoss will turn up. You could ask them if T5 or Tullow was interested in partnering Providence in Barryroe. Or ask O'Reilly will they invite Aidan Heavey as a director. That would make quite a team.

The first part is sure to be the corporate presentation which gives O'Reilly the chance to hear himself speak and during that he will have to address the issues of EXOLA. Question "Are you sure the $10m is in the post??"

Good luck to those going and I hope they have nice "eats" for you. It is the least they might do given the pain they have caused us.

The last time I went to an AGM was so full of the proverbial that I decided never to go again.

The "professionals" from the institutions should be there to defend their positions in the QAs and I would expect them to ask the pertinent questions as they have to defend their positions.

Unless they have been privately primed I would expect Furlong of Pageant, for one, to put them through the mill as he has about 90m shares tied up and he must be suffering a serious loss unless he knows something about APEC that we do not know.

If he does not ask the relevant questions you can presume he has been forewarned or he is far less "cute" than I think he is.

So I will wait for the responses.

Remember APEC have only bought into 50% of EXOLA.

One of the reasons why APEC are getting cold feet is because they had aspirations to get involved in other Providence assets after Barryroe but that might not look so attractive now that IOLAR is a dead duck as I presume they would have looked to CNOOC (Nexen) to be the main focus in Ireland but because that is actually a Canadian company purchased by CNOOC it is completely separate from APEC/COSL.

So it will be interesting to see how that pans out. Does APEC/COSL become the Irish focus or does the renamed CNOOC Ltd., the new name for Nexen which is registered in Canada and then you have CNOOC Intnational which is based in Aberdeen and I believe took ownership of IOLAR and the other assets from Nexen.

So are you confused with the CNOOC structure? Join the gang. All over the place and changing all the time. Could be the hold up in APEC as it is small potatoes compared to either CNOOC Ltd or CNOOC International who no "own" all the Irish assets. Are they trying to resolve these anomalies and has EXOLA's 50% shareholding got stuck somewhere in the middle?

Technically there is no gap between the survey and the drilling. Take as precedent IOLAR. Once CNOOC had done the survey it went into the drilling without any formal approval but it still has to be sanctioned by the minister who could veto it rather than vice versa and would only do so if he had good reason.

Depends on whether or not Providence can raise the capital or get a partner. That was supposed to be APEC who were going to take it all the way through to production.

That was the beauty of APEC's deal. Providence and Lansdowne had a zero cost until oil was flowing and then it paid its half share out of the oil revenues and if there was no oil then they paid nothing.

The issue with the oil is that they know it is there and if you stuck a stick in Barryroe you will strike oil. The question is, is there one big puddle of oil, a few perhaps 20 puddles of oil or is there hundreds of puddles which are not connected and each one would need its own well and then each might not produce enough to make it economic.

If there was one big puddle and it was all together Barryroe would have been developed years ago but it is this doubt about compartmentalisation which has been the bugbear all along. That is why they are now drilling 5 wells and a sidetrack to see if at least those five wells hold enough for each to be a well if they are not connected into each other and that is why they are also planning a side track to laterally see how much oil is there.

For too long Providence has tried to play the "big cheese" leading from the front. Druid/Drombeg showed it can be no more than a follower and instead of leading big projects has to bring in a biggie to lead and it to just participate.

That is why it ditched O'Sullivan and his gang because they were ineffective and costly. Should have dumped them years ago but like his father in Waterford/Wedgewood and INM he held on, out of pride, to them too long as a glory trail.

So if he brings in a partner for Barryroe , Providence must play second fiddle rather than being the gang leader. If he can play that role I am sure he will be able to attract the Totals, ExxonMobils, Tullows, Woodside, etc as long as he plays "little boy" and not "big daddy".

First of all, how long did it take them to get survey clearance and without it they could not drill. It is now over eighteen months since they got the first approval which was kiboshed by An Taisce.

Secondly, having the survey and the location of the wells makes them far more attractive to a partner.

Thirdly, Barryroe is a SEL. Standard Exploration License to which are attached certain conditions such as you have to do some work within time limits or you lose the license. This work keeps the license in Providence's hands and stops others from trying to get it should Providence sit on its hands.

Enough reasons?

i wasn't suggesting going that deep in a wet suit. There is specialised equipment and I think the record, set back about ten years ago, is about 600m so Barryroe is well reachable using today's technology. A gentle stroll for a professional.

The technical approval from DCCAE was "approval for Exola DAC to undertake a seabed debris clearance, environmental baseline and habitat assessment site survey on the Barryroe Field." So mainly to get rid of any loose rubbish so that the drills, which I presume will sit on he seafloor, are stable.

Hopefully those attending the AGM on Thursday will get some hard and fast answers and don't take any "blather" from O'Reilly who is a past master at it having been taught by his daddy who was one of the "best".

They are looking for far more than just debris etc. Remember, the Barryroe field is in only 100m of water. You could send a diver down to that depth to see what was there.

If you go to providence presentations you will find plenty of information about the drilling plans, where they intend to put the wells and, in the case of no show APEC you will see where wells 1 and 2 plus the sidetrack are scheduled to be placed. It also shows that deepening the wells they could hit another 750mbbls of oil at the lower levels which have shown up on the surveys.

Check it out at:

http://www.providenceresources.com/sites/default/files/OIL%20CAPITAL%20CONFERENCE%2C%20LONDON%20-%20OCTOBER%202018.pdf

It seems Aidan Heavey, founder of Tullow who retired last year is making a comeback.

He would certainly have the pedigree to buy take over the APEC deal for Barryroe and, if necessary, buy out EXOLA for example, given that he has $1billion backing. Also, Plunkett and McCoss et al. are all old workmates from his Tullow days.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/tullow-oil-founder-considers-comeback-1.4013015

Would certainly solve all of Providence's problems at one fell stroke.

May I put a different perspective on a possible reason for the delay.

HSBC has backed the "wrong" side in Hong Kong. It has backed mainland China against the people of Hong Kong.

If you were an employee in the financial sector in Hong Kong, and could be disruptive to HSBC, you would certainly do what you could to upset them.

Presumably if it is a share issue it will be about 6p so issuing 300m shares would bring in £18m. Enough to probably drill two wells and a sidetrack but not enough to develop them. And, if it is a share issue, some of it should be for the ordinary shareholders and not the lot to the institutions as happened the last time. In the previous one at 25p some of the issue was for the ordinary shareholders but not the issue at 12p.

Diablo is now operated by Total and it will now go on the back burner because it is in the next block to where |IOLAR came up empty. If IOLAR had been a steamer the chances are Diablo would have be profied but it is in the same geological structure as IOLAR so they will not be in a rush to develop it. You can read all about it in the Financial Report for 2018 which is the basis for the AGM on Thursday.

http://www.providenceresources.com/sites/default/files/2018%20Providence%20Annual%20Report%20with%20Form%20of%20Proxy_1.pdf

As for people asking why management do not buy shares in Providence note that Pat Plunkett when he joined bought 1m shares at 12p. He is now suffering a healthy loss. Also remember baby had 12m shares options at 45c which expired only about three weeks ago.

Two points about those options; they had to be exercised under a 10 year deal done in 2009 and secondly they were set to be exercised at 45c. Now, why would you set them at 45c if you did not think they were going to get there and obviously in excess because that is your bunce?

So, in effect, Plunkett is in for one million and O'Reilly has just lost 12m and furthermore, we are in what is called a "closed period" where directors are precluded from buying shares in their own company.

I agree this is more positive.

Unless Providence is the biggest pack of Jeremy Corbin(s) this side of London and cannot tell black from white why do they continue with the mantra " receipt of the APEC Loan Proceeds to close of business on September 30, 2019". Surely that can only come from a statement from APEC that the money is on its way. Otherwise why not shoot the messenger.

And why extend it by three weeks instead of one as has been the norm?

If this money does not now come through after all these "backstops" O'Reilly's credibility will be far worse than anything that has been said about him on this or any other board. And remember, he is not alone in this. You can be sure he is being advised by Pat Plunkett who has a long history in finance apart from his time in Tullow and I am sure Plunkett is very careful about his reputation.

The Saudis are cutting production to force up the price.

It seems American fracking is now producing the most oil in the world at about 11m barrels a day.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7443595/Saudia-Arabia-cut-oil-production-attempt-raise-prices.html

This is only defensive play. The opening price was totally artificial at 9c which in sterling is 8.9p.
Now, when did you see Providence at 8.9p sterling?

There is normally an artificial price put up on a Friday night, namely 8.9p so that if TOR announced an RNS this morning saying the APEC funds had arrived the MMs would not have been skinned as they would have if the price opened at 6.26c.

So, the current Irish price of 6.26c is about 5.75p which is the price on London.

So, no panic. Just the MMs covering their rear ends.

The real reason they drilled Druid/Drombeg was because they trusted Schlumberger.

Schlumberger and Providence used a team of 30 "Specialists" analysing Druid and Drombeg and it was Schlumberg's reputation, the best in the oil industry, that convinced them they were on a winner.

It is a pity they could not turn water into oil as the famous wedding feast turned water into wine and we could all have bought the best wine on offer.

https://www.offshore-mag.com/geosciences/article/16770328/providence-schlumberger-firm-up-offshore-ireland-drilling-prospects