Member Info for Manyana

How would you like to have been invested in the Woodford Group? Went bust this week owing billions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50094982

O'Reilly has done nothing wrong and I am sure he is working to sort this out. Perhaps he is waiting until this Brexit fiasco is over.

You have to work within the law and at present Providence is not in breach of any element of Company Law and thinking of setting up a claque to harangue in some way in his home is not the way to do it.

Why not try Plunkett if you are going to filibuster O'Reilly? On the other hand, like myself, you could go through the proper channels which is your gripe, technically, against Providence and put the pressure on there? He might not be able to answer now but at least he might give us a legal Providence statement as to what is going on.

Group, be damned. Get real.

You could have emailed them in the time it took you to put that bit of c**p.

Let us not get too scientific. I emailed them yesterday, not expecting to get a response but it puts a bit of pressure on.

If a number email asking, for example:

Email: info@providenceresources.com

"What is the current status with APEC? Where is the $10m APEC was said to have paid into Providence's account? Is the APEC deal legally dead? Why have you not kept the shareholders up to date with an RNS regarding the status of the money or the deal with APEC?"

The more the merrier. If there are enough messages, we cannot be ignored.

What have they found in Dunquin South? I did not realise they had drilled it and found oil or gas in Dunquin South. When did they drill it? Last Sunday, perhaps.

They have found oil and gas in Hook Head, Helvick and Dunmore. All it needs is somebody to get it out. They have some sort of deal with MFDEVCo but it seems to have been going on for years.

What about Hook Head, Helvick and Dunmore, all finds?

Are they worthless?

The license Providence holds for Barryroe is a SEL license which stands for a "Standard Exploration License".

Such licenses are only issued for 6 years made up of two 3 year phases. During those three years, you have to carry out such activities as the minister agrees or you lose the license.

The minister has been very tolerant of Providence over the years due to circumstances but the last agreement the minister made in July 2017 was to extend phase 1 of Barryroe to July 2019 and to extend phase 2 untll July 2021.

To satisfy Phase 1, Providence had to carry out certain works or it would lose the license. It satisfied this requirement by doing the survey. The agreement said "The Barryroe Partners have been granted a 2-year extension to the term of the First Phase of SEL 1/11 to July 2019 and overall term to July 2021 by the Minister for Communications, Climate Action& Environment subject to the Barryroe Partners carrying out a work programme that includes the evaluation of newly reprocessed 3D seismic data together with an assessment of the Jurassic and Triassic exploration potential of the licence area".

Commenting on this extension back in 2017 O'Reilly said "“We are very pleased to be granted these extensions to the Barryroe licence, which provides additional security of tenure whilst we continue the farm-out process."

So, you see, if they had not done the surveys they could have lost the license so was APEC playing games so that Providence would lose and they would pick up the whole lot for nothing? I would not put it past them.

In phase 2 it has to drill at least one well or it will lose the license so it has two years to drill on Barryroe and either get another extension from the minister who has been most tolerant over they years, I believe, because Barryroe is an Irish company.

And, by the way, the cost of the license is not cheap. I believe it covers 400sqkm and costs and annual fee of €167 per km in years 1-4 and €335 per km in years 5 and 6 which now apply. Is it any wonder Providence is running out of money.

Hopefully a new partner will get on board and they can drill that well within the time frame.

Why did Providence carry out the site survey of the two wells if they thought APEC was going to come up with the money?

After all, what is the point of the survey if they are not going to drill the wells?

There is a very good reason why they did the survey. I will leave it up to you to tell us why and why I now believe APEC were trying to pull a fast one.

Have you ever heard the term "the law is an ass".

I made a legal mistake in the past when I signed a deal "subject to California law". Now, I did this with an American company out of ignorance but the reason why American companies do that even though they are not in California is because Californian law is the one most favourable to Americans and your chances of winning pretty well goes out the window.

I was lucky because I had to hire an American lawyer through my own solicitors who were able to get a decision in my favour but it was an easy mistake to make and while it initially cost me money it ended up well spent.

So, we do not know under what legal system the deal was written. If you have ever dealt with contracts you will know the last line normally says "Subject to he laws of xxxxx" where xxxx is the land where the law is applied. If Providence's says "Subject to the laws of Ireland" then all well but what if it said "Subject to the laws of China (or even Hong Kong) "? You have just let go a real bag of worms and "reasonableness" goes out the window.

The Chinese deal was the only "zero cost " deal on the table. That is why it was so attractive. Providence and Lansdowne did not have to pay a penny until the oil started to flow and even then "no oil no fee". Where is Providence going to get $100m to develop its half of Barryroe?

The only thing for Providence is to sell a share in Exola to a third party and with the money develop Barryroe without an input from Providence. Other than that, a deal similar to the APEC one of no money up front is the only solution when you have no money. But that begs the question is the oil in Barryroe actually accessible on a commercial basis?

It is not to say Providence has not had the money to develop Barryroe over the years at a cost of $100m since 2012. It has raised and spent well over that amount since 2012. The only issue is it has squandered it on dead duck projects such as Dunquin North and Druid/Drombeg etc even though it said it was going to use it to develop Barryroe. All of which had to be at the insistence of John O'Sullivan who must have convinced O'Reilly of the success chances of these "dead ducks" otherwise why did they do it? Good riddance to him, I say.

Now all that is left for Providence is to sell out its equity holdings but the first thing it has to do is get back the 50% stake in EXOLA it passed to APEC as part of the deal which is why I raised the issue of the deal before. If the original deal does not stand why did they give APEC 50% shares in EXOLA without getting the upfront loans? Without that equity it has nothing of real value to offer an alternative partner.

The reason it passed the 50% equity to APEC is because the "loans" it is waiting on were never part of the original contract. They were only added in when they amended the contract was signed on 20th March 2018 which was subsequently amended on September 20th 2018 with the addition of the $19m loans and again further extended on February 1st 2019 when the COSLInnovator was nominated as the drilling ship for the Barryroe wells with COSL doing the drilling, and then on June 5th the upfront costs increased to $24m and Providence was questioning the non-payment of the first $9m which up to then we were not told about but had not been paid due to the An Taisce challenge.

Now, how about that for a bag of worms. So, actually under the original contract, APEC were not due to pay anything up front but to do the surveys and the drilling. The loans only came in on subsequent amendments. So what is the legal status of the contract? Can APEC invoke the original contract without paying anything up front? Your guess is as good as mine since we have not actually seen the contract and the amendments but if the original contract is not binding why did Providence assign the 50% equity in EXOLA without having the loans included?

Sounds like a good old Laurel and Hardy sketch "Another fine mess you got me into!!!"

It amazes me how little you people know of Providence and its history. So here are a few questions which might explain why it is in such mess today?

Why did Providence chase other opportunities instead of using the money, as it promised, to develop Barryroe?

Who was the largest shareholder in Providence up to 2015 and why are they no longer a shareholder in Providence?

What happened in 2017 that made Providence put the development of Barryroe on hold? Who invested in a development based on bad advice and who bought into the development?

What type of license is Barryroe and what are the conditions attached to it that limit its life expectancy? What can Providence do or has done to protect it?

Let us just start with those.

The reason why there was little interest in Providence in the years between 2012 and now is the price of oil.

In 2012 up to 2014 the price of oil was over $100 a barrel. In 2014 it fell off the cliff falling to a low of $29.44 before rising again to where it is now at about $52. Check out the following chart:

https://www.macrotrends.net/2516/wti-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart

The major impact on the price during that period was the increase in oil production in the US where shale oil and gas have made the US the world's largest producer of oil and accordingly the price fell as we live in a "supply and demand" world.

But even in this natural resources world it is anticipated that oil prices will rise over the coming years. Interesting statistic recently is that there are 650 million automobiles in the world and 75 million are produced annually. If 3 million are electric that leaves a lot of petrol and diesel cars already here and more being produced.

So, only now with the price of oil improving is it worthwhile for somebody to develop Barryroe. Providence estimates it will cost $25 a barrel to produce which is expensive when you consider others look to $5 in places like Africa but then Ireland is a stable and low tax oil country whereas other countries are not. For example, Tullow just completed a two-year tax battle with the Ugandan government over a sale of assets to Total, note: "British Oil firm Tullow is set to formally exit active operations in Uganda, after agreeing to a payment plan for taxes on its farm-down to Total E&P."

So, only now with a reasonable and stable oil price is it worth developing Barryroe especially as it is probably going to be the only oil and gas development in Ireland for the next ten years given the track record to date of getting licenses and even finding any oil or gas.

Financially Total is raking it in and could easily take over the APEC deal as is, obviously also take operatorship of Barryroe and Providence and Lansdowne could just sit back and wait for the money to roll in.

Perfect solution.

I raised the issue of APEC the other day on whether they had a blocker on the deal even though they have not fulfilled the terms of the loans. But if you read the original contract between Providence, APEC you will see there was no mention of upfront payments. They appeared in the first amendment when it was to be only three wells and was then raised upwards again in June of this year when it went to five wells and a side track.

So the question is what sort of contract was actually written and under what law? Hopefully not "subject to Chinese law" for example. Now that would be a belly full of worms.

So, if Providence has to get back its 50% of Exola from APEC it means it has transferred it. Another bag of worms?

So how long before we get an update as to what is going on? A piece of string approach?

In its dealings with Total, Providence has always been well treated. Can't say the same for APEC.

This is old hat and is a Sunday newspaper filler.

Yes, Total took over Diablo Ridge which was the third element in the Druid/Drombeg fiasco but it was never envisaged as being other than totally speculative as Druid/Drombeg were water. The chances of oil seeping out of them into Diablo Ridge was very, very remote.

I believe Total took it just to have a finger in the Irish oil pie as, other than its arrangements with Providence for Diablo, it only has an interest in Providences' Avalon license 2/19 which it took control of in February of this year.

"Irish oil and gas company Providence has informed that the Total-operated licensing option 16/27 offshore Ireland has been granted a Frontier Exploration License Status 2/19, with effect from February 1, 2019".

Now that it has dropped Diablo Ridge the only thing Total has now in Irish waters is its partnership with Providence in Avalon. "It is operated by TOTAL E&P Ireland B.V. (“TOTAL”) (50.0%), with partners being Providence Resources P.l.c. (40.0%) and Sosina Exploration Limited (10.0%)."

The chances of it being developed in the next few years is in the lap of the gods so what has Total, one of the biggest oil companies in the world, got in Ireland other than a few petrol stations and what are its intentions?

squirm baby squirm.

Stop trying to deflect from the fact that you have not got an answer to my question.

If the loans do not come through, how long do you think O'Reilly waits before he can legally move to an alternative partner for Barryroe or are the legal ties with APEC, even though they have not paid the loans, been breeched because of the non-payments?

Let's hear what "hurler on the ditch" has to say.

Haven't got a clue because I can't remember what I bought them for but it had to be pence because, back then, I only dealt in shares with prices no greater than about 20p.

Didn't have the money to chase women and buy shares. Who did? Remember back then women expected to be "treated". No going Dutch.

Kinnegad,

Did you mean "just filter him out"?. After all, I am not milk

Yes please, all those who do not like what I say "filter me out". Then I won't have to listen to their claptrap, including yours, Kinnegad.

I hope Bronxville, when you have read my piece on investment you will issue a grovelling apology.

Just a reminder, I mentioned on here before that in the early 1970s I invested in an Australian oil share called Keywest at share prices much the same as Providence and Lansdowne. Like many Australian oil shares they seemed to vanish off the map so I did nothing about them because I had bought them for buttons.

Years later I found out they had been bought over by Woodside Burmah who found billions of barrels of oil in Australia and my son who lives in Australia needed a deposit on a house so I transferred my Woodside Burmah to him and he cashed them in at an average price of $44.5 a share which easily paid for the deposit plus extra on the house he has been happily living in for years.

So, please don't try to tell me anything about investing in shares I have bought and sold hundreds of them over the years. I have made money but there have been the "missed opportunities" where due to timing I could have made a lot more. But that is C'est la vie.

For example, the student who put all of his student loan into Facebook when it was in its infancy and became a millionaire in spit time. Now, that is real luck. Why didn't we invest in Facebook and Google at the right time? I didn't think every dog would be running around with its own internet access. Did you?

Don't think you have done your homework too well.

First of all, I actually have far more LOGP shares than I have Providence have you checked over there? Not much point in posting there since they coattail Providence. I also have shares in that other noddy "San Leon" the third thief in the Barryroe saga.

Lansdowne and Providence are like lost sheep, perhaps "Prodigal Sons" in Biblical parlance and because of their uncertainty that is why we can speculate because nobody knows hat is going to happen to them.

Would you like to have a list of the shares I have invested in, quite a few some of which I am still invested in? Quite happy to supply since I have been in the stock market since the 1960s. I am sure there are some shares there you have never heard of where I made money such as RR.

For example, ask the old iii investors if they remember the famous "competition" held in 2012 in the Blinkx website, another share I still own under the Tremor website where Blinkx now resides having merged.

In the "famous" competition, you chose 4 shares, invested £2,500 in each and the winner was the one who made the most money after a period of time. It was dropped when it was clear there was an absolute outright winner. And who was that? Me, actually.

I chose 4 shares; Barratt Builders, Taylor Wimpey, Providence and Lansdowne.

Obviously I had to take the share price at the time even though I was already heavily invested in Barrett Developments and Taylor Wimpey when house shares were in the dumps and I had bought Barratt at 40p and Taylor Wimpey at 33p. I still have them and would like to hazard a guess what they are today?

Barratt are at 648.60p and Taylor Wimpey are at 163.05p but what am I going to do on their web pages other than to say "keep up the good work".

Back to the competition, the up to date results I have because I took the time to enter all participants shares into a virtual portfolio on good old iii, a site I used for years until they "f..ed " it up. On there, even though I had to take a virtual starting price of 133.40 for Barratt and 45.16 for Taylor Wimpey I have achieved 386.66% profit in Barratt and 253.44% for my Taylor Wimpey.

Of course, my two dogs, Providence and Lansdowne are down about 97% each but they were limited by the investment of £2,500 each.

Of the 28 shares chosen in the competition 8 are in profit. The other 20 are losers. And who is still the outright winner with two major winners? Me, of course and I still have the shares as I don't need to sell them. All I want is for those two dogs, Providence and Lansdowne to perform.

I have a very varied portfolio, for example, I was a big supporter of Blinkx from inception and in the good old days I actually owned shares in "iii" itself which I sold at a profit.

Will I go on and expound one of my best "lateral thinking" about shares which made me a lot of money many years ago? If you want an education, I am happy to supply.

Please explain to me how I am "narcissistic".

When I was a student one individual tried to give the Psychology lecturer a description of such a word. He vanished under his seat when the professor sneered "Another Reader's Digest" psychologist and everybody starting laughing. Seems to be the order of the day here.

People are using a word without having the slightest understanding of the word.

Have you read any of the reports on Providence in the Irish papesr. What is the first thing you see every time? That is narcissistic with a big "N" and is our downfall.

ps200306

Stop trying to distract from the question I asked you or are you really proving you are "empty headed"?.

Can criticise but cannot supply. What's new "hurler on the ditch~".

Why do you think people who come on here? Do you think they are going to make the slightest difference other than to "chew the cud". It is no better than sitting in the pub talking about football. It has no benefit. has no influence on Providence where any criticism is "water of the duck's back" and treat the shareholders to the "mushroom" treatment "Shovel s**** on them and keep them in the dark.

So, big mouth, what do you think is going on with Providence? Let's hear it from the oracle.

The only reason Providence is a subject worth a discussion is because it is a "bag of worms" and has been for years but it has huge potential if it was properly managed. O'Reilly has shown over the years that he is capable of "crying wolf".

This whole Providence shambles is such a mess that anything is possible. Why has Providence not issued another message saying whether the APEC deal is in a non-exclusive or is it a dead duck? You might not hear another word from O'Reilly until he has to put out six months figures.

In the meantime, anything goes, even his tan.