Member Info for Manyana

Angus McCoss is exploration director for Tullow. He is also Senior Independent Director of Providence. And since Tullow are up to their necks in debt and are developing the fields they have found there is no need for McCoss to go looking for more especially given the debt Tullow has.

But you ask yourself a good question when you ask what is he doing with Providence? After all, he is not here for the money when you consider how much he earns. "As the Exploration Director and Executive Director of Tullow Oil Plc, the total compensation of Angus McCoss at Tullow Oil Plc is £1,559,120."

So, while people keep on about O'Reilly salary just compare that to McCoss's £1.5m from Tullow which puts O'Reilly's in the shade.

So, ask again, your question "what is McCoss doing as Senior Independent Director of Providence?" He obviously believes there is more in Providence than most of the moaners on here think, otherwise he would be off spending his fat salary.

What in the name of all that is good are you going to do with a "titbit" or as you want "tidbit"?

We have been getting them from O'Reilly in spades over the last seven years but they never turn into a feast.

It is clear you are easily pleased. Well, good on you. Some of us others are looking for the whole hog even if it is not as pleasant as your "tidbit" to eat.

In the good old days, the "tidbit" of a chicken was the parson's nose. I was never too fond of it myself but if that is what you are looking for, then each to his own.

So, poor ps200306, you are bleating like a lamb which has lost its mother whereas I thought you were making a definitive statement.

"Please, Mr. O'Reilly, tell us something, even though I know you don't have to." Is that what you are saying? In which case you are, as it says in the Bible, "p***ing in the wind". It goes nowhere but straight back.

So, forget it, O'Reilly's next business requirement is to submit an Annual Return for Providence before 30th June 2020 unless something "material" that affects the share price happens in the meantime. Stop living in hope and get real.

You are wrong ps200306. Please apply company law and not emotion.

O'Reilly has to tell us nothing, if nothing has happened and until a decision is made that materially alters the company he is not obliged to tell us. So if discussions are ongoing, O'Reilly cannot buy shares in the company but he can continue those discussions without telling you or I.

Going on about his salary is ridiculous. There are headteachers in the UK earning more than O'Reilly.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3903844/370-000-year-best-paid-primary-head-UK-Teacher-charge-eight-schools-given-80-chief-council-works-for.html

And the biggest non-entity in Providence was John O'Sullivan. It was he who spent most time in China negotiating the deal with APEC and he was earning nearly as much as O'Reilly. For what? A major cash saving by getting rid of him and his mob who obviously messed up the APEC deal, if it is messed up.

Furthermore, O'Reilly has a two contract with a one year notice so get over it. He is here for at least the next two years.

So would you people stop moaning about O'Reilly where your motto is obviously "guilty without trial". When he makes a statement, as he must do at least by the year end to keep up with his normal tradition I will abide by company law while your ilk are using gut reaction.

That statement could be that Providence is a disaster. Who knows? But without that statement the status quo still stands and that is, hopefully Barryroe will be drilled next year by "somebody".

To follow on, ps200306, you raise a very interesting point.

While Providence has not got a partner for Barryroe it has got some big guns to partner on other projects such as ExxonMobil on Dunquin North, Total on Druid/Drombeg and in the early days it signed an MOA with Shell for the Barryroe oil. So obviously has had dealings with partners who are well capable of developing Barryroe.

I didn't say they could not start talking with someone before the three months but there would be no decision before the three months was up. A judicial review would have put Barryroe back years so who would want to buy into that?

An Taisce are a very aggressive organisation and I am somewhat surprised, given the politically "correct" attitude in Ireland on the green issues at present, that they did not do something especially as they are funded by the Irish government so it ends up a zero cost to them.

The chances are, if Providence announced a deal with somebody else or even cleaned up the APEC one before the three months An Taisce would be in like a dose of salts. The fellow who looks after legal activity for An Taisce and works for nothing is like a dog with a bone: Ian Lumley, An Taisce Advocacy Officer, which, as his title suggests loves a legal fight so I am actually surprised they did not go for a judicial review.

So at least better to have got past the judicial review stage whatever happens. Still. I say, no news is good news.

People have forgotten, I think, that Providence are only just out of reach of An Taisce's potential judicial review of the granting of the site survey on Barryroe.

The site survey was approved on 8th August with a three month window to allow for a judicial review if one was forthcoming. Obviously O'Reilly preempted this by doing the survey on two of the locations but there was always the possibility that An Taisce, or some other, would appeal within the three months and if granted would have made O'Reilly's surveys obsolete.

TSo the three month window passed on the 8th November without any judicial review being asked for so it is only now that Providence could actually start talking seriously to another partner. After all, the shenanigans that An Taisce kicked up last year when it demanded a judicial review on the first site survey approval put the Barryroe project back at least a year and was probably a contributory factor in APEC's among others view of the project.

First of all, Tony is not "a friend of mine". If you know my past you would know I am anti the O'Reilly family. They have had more disasters in business than any other family I know. But I look at the facts which people seem to overlook by making their own judgements.

Where is the proof that the APEC deal is a fiasco and is dead in the water? Have you insider information? If it were dead then O'Reilly would have been legally bound to inform us. He has not so technically it is still there until he makes a definitive statement. That is a requirement under company law which you people seem to ignore.

As for the share price, if anybody does not think that 3p a share is a bargain when there is a $20billion asset sitting in the ground must be mad. Here is a company capitalised at £22m. What would you say if somebody came in and offered £100m for it? Is it worth it? It now has no overheads after he got rid of those wasters run by John O'Sullivan, has no debt and has a number of very valuable oil assets other than Barryroe. £100m would be peanuts.

Would you be happy for it to be sold for £100m? I would actually make a lot of money if it were so do I care? And at a share price of about 15p the institutions who invested would not be reasonably unhappy as they bought in at prices such as 12p and 5p and would easily get their money back. So, no I would not be too unhappy because I am on the right side of the price but for those who have been "stung" over the years I can understand where their frustration comes from but it flies in the face of the facts.

O'Reilly will have to make a statement sooner or later. Historically he has always made an end-of-year statement. It will be very interesting if he fails to make one this year because of what is not said. We are now less than six weeks away from the end of the year. Let's see what happens between now and then.

Ranger4,

How do you know there is no interest from any major in Barryroe? Have you insider information, a crystal ball or are you speaking off the top of your head?

As for Pat Plunkett, while he as 1.75m shares he also has 1.75m options at 17c up to 2024. So, in effect he has 3.5m shares in his kit bag. For somebody who held such high positions in the past including owning a share in a stockbroker and has a long history in finance. So why is Plunkett in Providence if it is a dead duck?

Similarly McCoss. He has a major job in Tullow so why double job with Providence?

These are both deal makers and you can be sure they are sussing the market for opportunities to develop Barryroe unless, of course, Ranger4 has some inside information he can inform us of to the contrary.

Do you think he bought them just for the hell of it? And if he bought 1m at 12p do you think he expected them to go to 3p? Likewise when he bought at 5.1p did he think then they would go to 3p? Will you people ever stop crying into your tea and get real. Furthermore, if they are negotiating a deal they are prohibited from buying shares.

And if you want to see what he earned why don't you check out the annual return or are you not capable of reading them?

Interesting article from October which names the top 20 polluters in the world.

It is quite an eye opener when you read the names and then you wonder why Brid Smith is bleating about poor little Ireland when you look at this gang.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/09/revealed-20-firms-third-carbon-emissions?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

The issue for Providence is that if it took over the KEL infrastructure it would have to include the cost of decommissioning it. At present, KEL has applied to the minister to decommission the infrastructure which will cost them big money.

"It is anticipated that the gas wells will have come to the end of their productive life by 2020/2021, at which time the gas reserves will have been depleted. When this point is reached, the wells will be permanently plugged and the associated facilities (platforms, pipelines, cables, subsea structures and onshore terminal) will be decommissioned."

So, if KEL could pass those off to Providence it would save a lot of money by not having to decommission them and since the price it has been getting for gas up to now also includes costs for the decommissioning it would not just be a case of passing it over and walking away but would have to pay Providence the decommissioning costs in anticipation of the future date when the Barryroe gas runs out.

Barryroe is reckoned to have 207 billion cubic feet of gas in its present level. The chances are there is far more lower down in the layers which were to be drilled in the APEC deal and could, in fact, equate to Corrib which has 1trillion cubic feet.

I fail to see what you think is going to happen.
With the last raise Providence has enough readies to last until at least February next year and this is a company which has no borrowings.

Look at Tullow and its recent downgrade. Why do you think it dropped 17%? Because it is carrying a monstrous debt of about $2.8billion. Compare that to Providence which has none.

So even if it had to borrow a few million next year against its asset base do you not think it would get it?

So why all the doom and gloom. Obviously we would all like to see Barryroe being developed and the first part of that has been achieved with the two site surveys so it might be slow but at least things are moving on.

To clarify, which is of interest, that Pat Plunkett as a director bought 750,000 shares at a price of 5.1p in Providence on 18th September this year after the kerfuffle with APEC about the $10m.

But Pat had already bought 1m shares at a price of 12p in his first week as Chairman of Providence on October 6th 2016, the week he became Chairman but obviously he bought these before he became Chairman so they do not register on the directors' dealings.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/providence-s-new-chairman-buys-120-000-of-shares-1.2819706

So Pat is the proud holder of 1.75m shares in Providence. I am sure he did not do this with his eyes closed and as it was done after the September "backstop" and I am sure he did not do it as an act of charity.

So, if it is good enough for Pat who obviously knows a lot more than we do then it is certainly good enough for me. Hence, my return visits to the share market.

They thought they could piggyback on the Tullow experience in Africa but obviously thought better of it.

Tullow has not covered itself in glory in Africa with its issues with the tax demands on it in both Kenya and Uganda where the government's suddenly demand huge tax on the transfer of assets.

Not only that but the oil Tullow found recently is pretty hard stuff to deal with having pollutants in it and it being "heavy" as distinct from Barryroe which is "light and sweet" the best kind although Barryroe needs heating.

Now, if T5 can raise $45m surely they can raise that and more to develop Barryroe. After all, Pat Plunkett is, I believe, the biggest non-institutional investor in Barryroe so why not Barryroe instead of Africa?

I have actually attended a concert by Nikolai Lugansky. He came to Dublin a number of times and has played at the National Concert Hall, Dublin with the St Petersburg Philharmonic Orchestra.

Every time I go to the National Concert Hall it brings back memories of when I was a a student as it was the Great Hall when UCD was located in Earlsfort Terrace. I even sat my exams in that hall and after the main part of the University moved to Belfield I played badminton in it as for a time it was a sports centre for the students.

Just down the corridor I attended a great debate in the 1960s between A.J.P.Tayor and David Thornley, a brilliant man, who unfortunately died well before his time at the age of 42.

Because we have to be informed of anything that can materially affect the share price, good or bad, it follows that nothing of legal significance has happened since O'Reilly's last message. At some point we will know what is going on and hopefully it will be good news.

I take a totally different view. No news is good news.

Providence told us that APEC no longer had an exclusive so if they were talking to another possible partner how long do you think it would take to fix up a deal? Weeks, perhaps months. If you have ever dealt with lawyers you will know they are never rushed. After all, it takes about eight weeks to buy a house which is not that complicated.

The least we will expect will be O'Reilly's end of year write up in late December.

Taking of opera singers, I looked up to see if Callas ever sang with the greatest tenor of all time but I cannot find a reference to it. And who am I talking about? The greatest Italian tenor who was not even Italian. Credited by both Pavarotti and Domingo as the best, who unfortunately died young in 1960, here is the tune I play every Christmas as my favourite of all time. And if you like that you can follow it with the greatest male duet ever. The Pearl Fishers with Bjorling and Robert Merill. Good Listening and thank you Youtube for without it we would never probably hear singers like these.

Makes a difference from navel gazing as we wait for Providence to sink or swim.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nrDfqoYzNo

Singing by numbers.
Here is the proper way to sing it from the "street busker". Probably the best soprano ever.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sf-tjXevlyQ

Callasjunkie,

I hope your name is not a tribute to that squawker Maria. I've heard chickens sounding better than her.

And remember, he who laughs last laughs longest.

I never put more money into shares than I can afford to lose. And if Providence go even lower you can be sure I will be at the head of the buying posse.

Why do you think I call myself "manyana"? Not because tomorrow never comes but that is the time when hens come home to roost as long as they are not sounding like Maria.

What has changed? Nothing. If there were some news we are legally entitled to hear it first.

So why is the price falling? I am backing algo trading. Algo trading is where computers do the trading not humans. And they do it so fast that humans cannot keep up with them. In some ways, the development of technology is killing human intervention because it is consistent, is fast, is 24/7, it cannot be charged with insider trading and it can be located in any obscure place in the world where the tax benefits are a bonus.

For example, how many betting sites are now located in Gibraltar and how well known are they as they trade into the UK? Have a look, and if you have a bet, you might not realise where you bookie is located even though they have a presence on the high street.

https://www.mightytips.com/bookmakers/gibraltar-betting-sites/

As it says, Gibraltar is used for low tax rates and zero corporation tax rate. No wonder Spain would like to get hold of it.

Watch this video on algo trading and you will understand why Providence is falling. But beware, if there is any piece of good news these algos will go into a buying frenzy and the price will shoot up.

And also, I don't want to hear about this being a ramp. All those algo computers out there are no listening even if I shouted from the rooftops. This is a binary bet.

Watch this on algo trading where the fastest computers and the closest to the exchanges are the winners.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4nCTdQlH8w