Member Info for Manyana

The second tranche of $15m is only due when the drilling starts and is for ancillary work carried out by EXOLA. All the drilling costs etc will be handled by COSL. Note:

"Under the terms of the FOA, China Oilfield Services Limited ('COSL') will provide all services and equipment required to conduct the Drilling Programme. " And "To effect this Drilling Programme, the Barryroe Partners have confirmed that COSL have nominated their 6th generation 'COSLinnovator' semi-submersible drilling unit".

So, we still need to know how the survey will be paid for - essential question at AGM - but once that is over it is for COSL to get on with the drilling subject, of course, to the ministerial approval which I believe will be a formality.

There is of course the faint chance that An Taisce could still request a judicial review as the time period was from 23rd July 2019 which takes us up to 23rd October. However, to obviate this might be the reason why Providence are going it alone to get it done before An Taisce can put in its oar. Once it is done it would be rather futile to put in a judicial review as what is done is done.

Thursday will be interesting if for nothing else but to find out where the funding for the survey is coming from, how much is invested and how much will us, the poor shareholders, have to pay for it and who pays for the drilling.

The questions to ask at the AGM:

1. Are APEC financially capable of developing Barryroe and who are their financiers?
2. Why are Providence receiving the $1m which is payable to APEC?
2. Is the process of getting the $15m support money for the drilling stage going to take as long as the $10m and if so has the process for receiving it started and when will drilling start and how long will it take to drill the five wells and the sidetrack?
3. Is there a contractual time limit for COSL to develop the wells on Barryroe after the drilling has been completed? In other words, what contractual commitments is there to prevent APEC from mothballing Barryroe once the well drilling is completed? So, when will production of oil actually start, say two years after drilling of wells or sooner?
4. What is happening about the gas in Barryroe? Will it be developed in, say, the next two years and will it use the KEL (Kinsale Energy Ltd) infrastructure? Will it then be transported to KEL's terminal in Middleton as was the gas from Kinsale and Seven Heads?

Is that enough for you?

Remember Longwait nothing is done in Barryroe without the permission of the Minister for Communication, Climate Action and Environment. And even when the survey is finished Providence will have to seek permission for the petrol license to do the actual drilling.

Now, unless China invades Ireland there is absolutely no way that APEC can get its hands on Barryroe if it does not play ball and follow the proper legal process that is stated in the contract.

At all times, natural resources in Ireland are at the behest of the minister and it is his prerogative to give or take away and there are a multitude of ways he can do that.

So, stop worrying as all Providence has to do is to get the minister to tell APEC to take a hike if it tries anything funny and you can be sure if they did that the government would be down CNOOC (Nexen)'s neck is quick time because of their association with COSL.

You can have a piece of paper that says you have 50% of the shares in Exola but the actual list of shareholders and their holdings is held in the shareholder's register which is held by the company, namely EXOLA. So, no matter what APEC hold, if the produced a certificate in court, the company would just point out that they had not paid for them and APEC would be laughed out of court.

As for O'Reilly's tan, that is because he lives in Malta. When he divorce, he married an Italian lady and lives in Malta where he flies, I believe, every week. That is why his contract with Providence is through an agency and he is not directly employed for tax reasons.

Keep it Simple

If I go on to my broker and buy Providence today and buy shares they are registered to me immediately.

I then have two days to pay for them. What happens if I cannot pay? Can I keep the shares? Of course not.

So what is different about Providence "selling" 50% of Exola shares to APEC and why do the same rules not apply according to people on here? Of course the same rules apply and APEC are not the legitimate owners until they have paid up in full which means developing the wells.

Furthermore, if they were stupid enough to think they could hold on to them and not pay who could they sell them to because if they had the shares, did not do the development all they have is a worthless piece of paper. They might as well use it in the toilet for all it is worth.

Article in Irish Times
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/site-survey-vessel-arrives-at-barryroe-field-1.4007425

As I said in the previous item, it is not the survey or the drilling that is the issue but the money needed to bring the field into production.

If you use the following you get a good idea where it says "In the Miocene area with shallower water and well depths, the average cost for drilling and completion is $120 MM." Given that the drilling costs say $20m that leaves $100m per well. Given that back in the heady days of gungho with Barryroe it was estimated that 24 wells would be required to get at 70,000 barrels a day that comes to a total of about $2.4billion.

Given that the development would be phased and most of the costs would come out of production it would probably need at least the $500m to get the first phase up and running.

Angus McCoss is far more qualified than John O'Sullivan to interpret what is found. That will be a saving of about €2m a year between accomodation, salaries and expenses.

And the survey is to clear the seafloor of debris etc so that drills can be safely placed there. They have already decided where the five wells will be located and you might find they are looking for rocks, wrecks or bombs etc that might be littering the ground and need to be moved.

If the APEC money does not arrive they will only survey and clear two sites plus, hopefullly, sidetracks rather than the five wells and sidetracks planned in the APEC agreement.

Also, he would not be doing the survey if he had not arranged alternative funding in the event of a no-show for the APEC funds.

The benefit of the APEC deal was not the drilling of the wells but the free carry to bring the wells into production. That is the part that will need funding if the surveys and drilling are successful.

Interesting that they are still waiting on the APEC funds given the RNS statement.

Either APEC are lying through their teeth or they are still saying the funds are on the way but are still stuck in the system.

Surely if it transpires that they have been lying the chances of the Chinese doing another deal in Ireland is for the birds. Credibility is everything and CNOOC, who are ultimately at the back of the APEC deal, will have no credibility left if those funds do not come through.

Jarv55,

I fail to see why ExxonMobil are not interested in taking up the Barryroe deal now that IOLAR has come up wet but they have jumped into bed with CNOOC (Nexen) on a number of Irish prospects on a 50/50 basis the chances of which are probably as dubious as IOLAR.

Providence has had other deals with TOTAL so why are they not getting into bed with this one?

If you were to believe APEC were genuine then this signing between JIC, COSL and APEC would indicate that they are legitimate as JIC are the funding people, APEC are the link and COSL which is wholly owned by CNOOC is the doer.

http://www.apecenergy.com/uploads/1/0/2/1/102196628/apec-jic-cosl-signing-ceromony-0001_orig.jpg

Jarv55,

What is your point? All you have done is cut and pasted from the RNS. I thought you were going to tell me something new but I had already read this.

The company presumed to be the proper APEC is the following:

http://www.apecenergy.com/about.html

If you have found another what is the link?

He is CEO because there is nobody there to vote him off.

To all effect, Providence is a one director company, O'Reilly, so he is hardly going to vote himself off so how would you do it and who would replace him?

And, by the way, this mess is created by APEC and if you read some of my previous items I am all for getting rid of them as this farce proves they are quite likely to get their teeth into Barryroe and then to "land bank" it and it might not get developed for years, if ever.

After all, it is interesting in this RNS that Providence are actually talking about suing them so they must believe that the "money" is not actually in the system, or at least not legally in the system, because if it was then they would have no legal basic on which to sue APEC as it would appear that APEC has already been registered as the 50% shareholder in EXOLA if they are looking for the shares back.

Finally agree a termination of these rolling RNS "no show" funds.

Obviously happy they can do some of the survey and site clearing ready for the drills.

What are the odds APEC will pay up and where is the money that is supposed to be in the system? Are APEC the mother and father of all liars?

Onward and upward and please get rid of those thieves. If it is this hard to get the first tranche of the money how hard is it going to be to get the rest?

If we get another "Dear John" RNS tomorrow I expect he will tell us what alternative financial arrangements are being made as he now has only two weeks before the current funds run out.

It is very annoying that every time they tell us the money is "in the post" they do not elaborate as to why it is being held up. If they have received information from HSBC then surely HSBC can tell us where it is stuck.

Don't expect miracles, though. If the money had arrived today we should have an RNS once it hits their account and that has not happened. So, obviously, still no cash.

Bronxville,

What's wrong with Waterford? Probably using it because it is quieter than Cork and because those Cork people think they are above themselves. Much nicer people in Waterford. To find that out just "Ask Audrey". Here is her take on this Friday gone and you can read "her " every Friday.

First thing I do on a Friday morning is read her column (brilliant, whoever writes it) and it always cheers me up . Latest instalment.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/lifestyle/features/ask-audrey-there-are-plans-for-a-pack-of-anti-democratic-zealots-to-build-a-huge-wall-along-the-lee-947136.html

Old Joke: "Why do Cork men have red necks? Because their father's keep slapping them saying "Get up to Dublin".

Further to the last on Nick Furlong, he has bought about 6% more of Providence since the debacle on Druid/Dromeg. The following is an article that was published just after that time in 2017.

I don't know who wrote this item but it is worth a read.

"Hi and I actually brought the magazine so cannot paste the article, but it is short enough really. Just goes through the history of the drill a bit, and I will quote the parts relevant to Pageant: Swashbuckling investor NIck Furlong's Pageant Holdings had a very busy day increasing its shareholding in the Tony O' Reilly Jnr fronted Providence from 8.25% to 9.7%. (It goes on the talk about how the shares lost 29% of their value that day after the result of the drill). Meanwhile the bould Furlong and Pageant Holdings were hard at work buying in London and Dublin. Providence announced on Tuesday morning that Pageant now holds some 9.7% or nearly 58 million shares in the company, which means that Furlong snapped up an additional 8.7 million shares. Does Furlong know something we don't?"

So, he has gone from 58m shares to close to 90m in the last two years. So he is either the biggest fool in Christendom or he knows something since surely he would have diluted at any price if we were going to the wall.

If you still have your shares you have not "lost" a million. The snakes have not entered the long grass yet.

As for Providence going bust, who is the second largest shareholder in Providence? Nick Furlong of Pageant Holdings, based on Dublin, offices not too far from Providence's offices who has been building a stake in Providence for a number of years each time "bad news" hit the market to where he now holds just short of 15% of Providence.

Given the "its in the post" money has plagued us now for weeks has Furlong sold any of his Providence? Not according to the market and given that 15% of Providence equates to 90m shares that must tell us something.

I am sure, if necessary, Pageant will be in to grab more and you can be sure he is not going to let Providence go to the dogs as he has too much invested when you consider he is as near to a one-man band as you can get and he has a good reputation in Dublin he would want to protect.

The board cannot be that stupid that they have not already put a contingency funding process in place but obviously it is a "backstop" to the "backstop" so will not come into play until the fat lady sings.

I am sure we will hear all about it at the AGM on the 12th if the other "backstop" is still in place by then.

In the meantime, somebody is playing "silly buggers" with the share price given its trajectory over the period of the "backstop". But then, a move of 5% is far more than you would get in the bank so why not take advantage of the uncertainty by a bit of ramping and de-ramping.

If they make enough it will pay for a ticket to the All Ireland Football Final on Sunday where the astronomical cost of tickets by the GAA is now a total disgrace.

Far better than you, Bronxville, who talks out of his all the time.

People are entitled to say what they like on this or any other BB. Nobody has the right to dictate what can and cannot be discussed. If you think you can dictate such things then you have the brain of a flea.

And, Bronxville, if you have filtered me months ago how is it that you could read and understand what I wrote - extra sensory perception perhaps emanating out of the same orifice you mentioned.