Member Info for Manyana

Rocklawn,

If you are going to try and tell us what we can or cannot do on this BB could you please use proper English. What has "tribe" got to do with anything?

I also note, checking other items from you, that your command of English leaves a lot to be desired.

Do I hear the sound of thrown stones and breaking glass or is it just my imagination?

Just a few pointers.

When Providence was £6.50 it was capitalised at £330m as there were only 60m shares. It has since gone up to all but 600m shares by the dilutions to the institutions first at 25p for which the ordinary punters could apply and for which I sold all the Blinkx I had at the time and bought Providence and then the huge second dilution which they limited only to the financial institutions at 12p.

One of the things I learned in the many mistakes I have made in the stock market is to get your investment out as quickly as possible once the price reaches a reasonable level and then let the rest run which means, irrespective of what price it achieves, it is all profit.

As for credit worthy in relation to Tullow and Providence, I will bet on Providence. I expect, if the money comes through that Providence will probably go close to 20p very quickly and that is what Tony and O'Sullivan were hoping for with the warrants and it would be even higher at 45c. So let us assume they hit a 3x price from today or Tony's expectations that they would be worth more than 45c by 6th August 2019 when they had to relinquish their options.

On that basis, Tullow, trading at 205p today would have to hit £6.15 to achieve a 3x result. Now, when can you ever see Tullow achieving that price with the debt they are carrying unless it starts pumping out about 250,000 barrels a day?

Long term, Tullow is a good investment from where it is today because I am sure, over the next five years, it will get its debts well under control but in the meantime don't expect to make a fortune from where the share price is today.

My question "who lent Tullow all that money, at one stage $4.8billion" was a rhetorical question and did not need an answer. The answer was "somebody did". They have issued a number of rights issues over the years to keep the dogs at bay and the share price has reflected that. They have also spent some of their revenue on cutting it down but it is still prohibitive.

If they did not have that much debt I would happily invest my gold teeth in the company but not until I think it has its debt under control.

As for the 90,000 barrels a day that covers 15 countries with 80 licenses but Baryroe is reckoned at present to be able to product 70,000 barrels a day from a single location of about 24 wells.

So, if Tullow could borrow $4.5billion why can't Providence borrow peanuts in comparison?

When will Ireland become a muslim/hindu country?

25 years ago, in 1995, Ireland had a population of 3.6m people. Now it has about 5m which is an increase of about 42%. If it has the same percentage increase over the next 25 years there will be a population of about 7m at which time the non-Irish will outnumber the Irish so who will run the country then? In fact, the percentage will probably be even greater so goodbye to Mother Ireland and welcome Mother "whoknows".

I would not be surprised with such a move.

O'Reilly might not have much credibility left in the market but Plunkett and McCoss are very well regarded from their Tullow days and the connection to T5 would make total sense. O'Reilly might not have too much credibility in raising money but Pat Plunkett would have no bother.

Tullow must really have gotten up daddy's and baby's noses and I am sure they were more than upset when an Aer Lingus accountant, Aidan Heavey, joined a little company called Tullow Engineering set up an oil business that made billions and walked all over the O'Reillys with the most successful oil company from Ireland.

I have been wondering for some time what Plunkett at al were going to do with T5 as it has been stagnating now for quite some time. Perhaps things might come clearer soon.

Why are you asking me to answer questions on behalf of Providence?

And if you have been an investor here since 2012 and have not made money out of Providence you have suffered from greed. You only "lose" 95% of your money if you bought these at ridiculous prices out of greed because you only lose when you actually come to sell. If you still hold them you have not actually lost 95% except on paper.

For myself, I have dealings with the O'Reilly's over the years, especially daddy, who I always rated as a "mouth" with very little brain. The Americans loved him for his after dinner speeches with his "blarney". But just look at the messes he made with Atlantic, Sugar Company, Fitzwilton, Telecom Eireann, Waterford Glass, INM, his nurse and Providence. He has scatter gunned more companies than this son has carried out abortive wells around Ireland.

But back to Providence between 2012 and 2015. If you bought and sold during that time, when they went from peanuts to about £7 the only reason you would have held on was greed. Having started life with Atlantic all those years ago I sold numerous batches during that time when the shares were peanuts then sold them making excellent money so Providence actually owes me nothing . Then when the tide turned in 2015 when the shares tanked I have since been buying piecemeal as the price sunk to the point I now have a good portfolio of these and Lansdowne at peanut prices.

In fact, my biggest loss on Providence shares has been with that criminal tax introduced by the Irish government called "Universal Service Charge" where they took 7% off your top earnings to bail out the country. So don't let me hear poor mouth cries about the Irish citizens. They were the ones who killed the Celtic Tiger, not Providence.

As for the citizens of Ireland, here is a few questions for you. Who "f.." up the economy so that the country owes $225billion to the EU for bailing them out of the defunct Celtic Tiger and the country is paying through the nose every year for the privilege?

If Providence was such a great thing why did the Irish Government not buy the company, create an indigenous oil entity and then we could all have benefited from it? Why did the Government sell of the indigenous gas entity, why did the not buy Whitegate but sold it off and then let the Canadians take it over?

So, look west and ask why Ireland is normally up its own rear end, will blame anybody but itself for its problems and then you will have answered all your own questions.

I smell the hand of Plunkett in all of this. He is long in the tooth, did major work with Tullow and knows what lean and mean is. He was also stuck with O'Sullivan until the share options ran out on 6th August 2019.

I think he finally persuaded O'Reilly to come to his senses and said "F.. this wildcatting, lets actually do something with what he have got".

I am sure O'Sullinvan's days were numbered after Druid/Drombeg but with his 9m options with a terminal date of August 2019 he had to hang on to see if they would have come right and if APEC had played the game right and if An Taisce had not caused trouble last year there is a good chance the shares would have been in excess of 45c, the option price. He was obviously gone once the rights issue had lapsed.

I am sure he has gone to pastures new as according to O'Reilly he was wined and dined on numerous occasions by people eyeing up Barryroe as they tried to get information out of him.

And if things are as bad as you say why is Providence pushing ahead with the survey on its own if APEC does not come in with the goods? Surely if things were that bad they would hold off on the survey and just extend the life of the cash?

And if the Chinese are holding back on the money which is peanuts why is COSL scheduled to do the actual drilling sine they are wholly owned by CNOOC and the cost for that will be carried directly by APEC and CNOOC as the extra $15m is for ancilliary work to be carried out by Providence during the drilling of the five wells and the sidetrack.

It's not over 'til the fat lady sings and she hasn't even come on stage yet.

Our non-exec director Mr. Philip O’Quigley is moving Falcon Oil from Dublin. He is also leaving the Providence board next year.

The Irish Stock Exchange was bought by Euronext in 2017 and traded as of 2018. It is interesting that one of the companies who traded on Euronext was our previous potential "partner" Sequa who also traded on that exchange.

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/falcon-oil-gas-to-cease-trading-on-euronext-dublin-38447487.html

I actually fail to understand why companies trade on multiple exchanges other than to use a Peter-Paul money making exercise but for AIM shares there is a disadvantage for UK people who hold AIM shares for two years or more when they are traded on two exchanges as they lose their Inheritance Tax exemption.

There is always a catch.

He should have done the Re-engineering years ago and kicked the lot out then. But he wanted to do what his daddy set out to do and become the J.R.Ewing of Irish Oil. Daddy failed spectacularly so the son tried instead and failed.

What has O'Sullivan achieved in his time as technical director? Nothing but has been taking nearly as large a salary as O'Reilly over the last number of years. Check the Annual Accounts and you will see.

The last throw of the dice was Druid/Drombeg. They teamed up with Schlumberger in a team of 30 "specialists" for six months and were convinced both Druid and Drombeg held billions of barrels of light, sweet crude oil and all they got was water and a big hole in their finances.

So, how much has O'Sullivan actually cost the company over the years? Millions of dollars so what use is he or his team as they could not find their way out of a paper bag. Gone, good riddance.

If they had not been chasing their tail for the last seven years and got on with developing Barryroe instead of looking for the big kill where would we be now? Rolling in it.

As for APEC trying to get Providence or Barryroe on the cheap you have to look at the assets. Barryroe is quantified as 340m barrels of oil on an independant assessment of a p90 basis. "Proven reserves are typically known as 1P, with many analysts referring to it as P90, or having 90% probability of being produced."

That oil, in the ground, at p90 is valued by the oil industry at $5 a barrel. That gives a value of $1.7billion to Barryroe "as is" so how can anybody buy Providence cheap and on that basis he should have no problem, surely, of borrowing against it especially as the company has no debt.

Compare that to Tullow who have debts of $3billion. Who lent them that money?

So my suggestion is to get rid of APEC, borrow say $20m, do the survey, drill one well and a side track and bring in a big partner such as Total or ExxonMobil and start doing some serious work.

Better that than raise money through equity at ridiculous rates. The institutions have already invested at 25p and 12p twice so they would be rather cheesed off if he did equity at say 6p or 7p. To do that would probably cost him as much in setting it up as the interest he would have to pay on $20m for a year.

This is like a bag of worms.

JIC Capital is a wholly owned "arms length" investment company belonging to China Construction Bank which is the Chinese Government owned once the second biggest bank in the world.

And, if you remember, after JIC Capital was announced as a funding arm for APEC there were intimations that the funding of the Barryroe project had changed but from what to what or who?

If it takes this long to get the funding for the mickey mouse phase of Barryroe what is going to happen when the real heavy lifting is due to start and they are waiting on the $15m for that and that is only the start before the real investment of the infrastructure takes place.

I say Providence should pull out and look for a more secure partner. After all they have now been in bed at one time or another with most of the big players.

Here is a bit of history when they signed a deal with Shell for off-take of the oil from Barryroe and Hook Head. But as usual, nothing came of it but just note he prices but just read and weep when you see the prices of the shares.

Its amazing how you can earn about €500k a year and then "f...." things up so badly when you are handed the crown jewels and you flush them down the toilet.

http://www.shelltosea.com/content/providence-resources-talks-shell-over-future-production-celtic-sea

I wonder if the $1m for APEC is causing the problem.

Why, for example, is Providence getting $1m which it passes on to APEC? Surely if APEC is the financier for Barryroe the $1m should go directly to APEC and the other $9m to Providence?

Also over the drip feed "backstops" the message has been getting weaker starting with this strong one on 29th June which points the finger firmly at HSBC for the delay: " However, the Company has been provided with a copy of further documentation provided to APEC’s funders (the “Payee”) by HSBC showing that US$10 million has been debited from the Payee’s account for payment to Providence’s designated account. The documentation confirms that the payment date is still pending due to final processing by HSBC. "

Perhaps somebody, even I, could contact Providence and ask them who is APEC's funder as to date they seem to be the fictitious "great I am" sitting behind the curtain like in The Wizard of Oz. I suspect it is CNOOC but I think Providence are being rather coy when they refer to them as "Apec's funder" so perhaps they could tell us.

After all, O'Reilly's stepmother, Chryss (Goulandris) O'Reilly could lend Providence the money as she is worth about $400m and unlike daddy she is not bankrupt.

Heading for Lowestoft, East Coast of England arriving tomorrow evening.

Check this route planner and see how wrong they got it. It presumes Kommander is going to sail all the way around the UK, down the Irish sea to get to Folkstone when it is only about 50 miles away in a direct route.

Getting closer to Barryroe as just a gentle sail across the south of England to do its survey.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:2.4/centery:56.5/zoom:5

UK on bank holiday today, not Ireland, but little activity in ISE on Providence. Hopefully money arrives before or on today and nice RNS in morning. Probably another "backstop" though given the track record to date.

I am sure Melody would be willing to lend again and even if the interest rate is a little penal remember we have just saved ourselves at least £1.5m with the dropping of O'Reilly's and O'Sullivans options. I am sure if those options had another year to run they would have exceeded the exercise price.

So, Melody loaned Providence $20m which Providence repaid two years early. It paid it in 2016 but it could have extended it to 2018 but decided not to do that. So I am sure it has the credibility with Melody to raise a similar sum again against the company's assets which was the guarantee for the loan the last time.

So Melody will be a good fall back if the APEC money does not come through and the loan will easily cover the survey and I would suggest that Providence would only drill one or two wells and a sidetrack with the remaining money.

Still life in the old dog yet. Hopefully it will be on its feet soon barking.

According to Upstream we already have a decision that IOLAR is a duster but why the collective silence?

Strange that the only one saying IOLAR was a duster was Upstream. Not a dickey bird from anyone else; no paper reports no CNOOC so why the silence? Pride perhaps.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/live/1840837/iolar-wildcat-dry-for-cnooc-off-ireland

Of course if IOLAR is a duster it throws a shadow on the rest of the Atlantic Margin licenses. So perhaps Brid Smith will get her way by default as the whole place comes up dry.

Interesting article in today's Irish Times says Ireland may need €9 billion investment in electricity to power all the data centres. How will Brid Smith get that? - Wind I suppose.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/investment-of-9bn-may-be-needed-to-power-data-centres-1.3994500

I would certainly prefer to buy Greenland than Donald Trump.

The issue with my Keywest shares all started back in the 1970s when there was a big to do with Australian oil shares so I had speculated on cheap Keywest shares when all share transactions were paper and Crest. Like many other Aussie oil shares I thought the company had folded and it was only years later that I realised they had been taken over and I had a reasonable number of Woodside Burmah (as it was then) which subsequently became Woodside.

A bit like winning the Irish Prize Bond with a bond you bought twenty or thirty years ago and never realised you had won until you did a random check.

Because it was Crest, paper and you had to trade them through a broker in AU$ I just left them never thinking too much about them, not even checking the price, but then my son moved to Aussie land a number of years ago, got married and when he went to buy a house I did a check and discovered what they were worth so I did a Crest transfer of the shares to him and he used it as a deposit on his house. He is now happily married with a wife and three lovely children and living happily in the house he bought.

But back to the issue with APEC. I don't believe Providence can dump APEC because there was no contingent timescale in the contract for the payment. So until APEC says no deal they have to hang on with these stupid backstops.

Of interest, though, is the drilling of IOLAR. Where did the money come from CNOOC to do that? You must remember CNOOC in Ireland was previously Nexen which was a Canadian company oil bought by CNOOC and it was Nexen which drilled IOLAR except under its new name of CNOOC. So the money came out of Canada to do the drilling.

Perhaps PVR could ditch APEC and get the money directly from CNOOC (Nexen). No problem getting Canadian dollars and now that CNOOC (Nexen) has come up dry, Barryroe would be a nice little project for it.

It would not need to be a bank.

For example, Providence has in the past partnered with numerous oil companies on various projects in return for an equity share in the enterprise.

So in this instance it is possible it would be somebody like Tullow, Woodside, ExxonMobil, Cairn,ENI, Repsol,Total,Sosina all of whom are partners in or have been partners in the past.

The issue is not the $30m to do the survey and drill the wells but to then go on and spend probably about $150m putting in the infrastructure. If it were only the first, Providence could probably do that on its own but it certainly has not got the finance to do the second phase. That will depend on a "big" player.

But if Providence does the first part the share price will increase substantially and the information gathered will probably bring in a big player along the same terms as APEC.

As I said previously, my preference would be for Tullow and with Pat Plunkett and Angus McCoss we have the interface for that. Alternatively I would like Woodside who made me a lot of money in the past when I bought shares for pennies in a company called Keywest which was bought by Woodside and my Woodside shares increased from about 25p until I sold them at $44 a share.

A repeat of that in Woodside and I could probably buy Greenland instead of Donald Trump.

Why don't you people stop talking out of your rear ends and start doing some research.

All the information is on the net if you know where to look for it.

Exxon Mobil did not "borrow". It invested $42m as a 50% development cost for Druid/Drombeg. And ExxonMobil certainly does not need to borrow - it is flush even though it has lost more now that IOLAR is a dud.

Furthermore, the list I supplied from Providence's shareholders all are investment companies and were, in the main, the investors in Providence's previous dilutions at 12p and previously at 25p when Providence went from 60m shares to 600m. They have more than enough to invest $30m in Providence to protect their investment.

Preference, borrow. with 600m shares Providence is well diluted and a placing to dilute further would be at silly money.

Remember also, thats list only includes shareholders who hold in excess of 3%. The rule is once you exceed 3% you have to declare it as it is a protection against somebody buying a strategic position.

So, let us presume there are another 12% of the company held by hidden institutions you then end up with over 60% of the company held by the people with more than 3%.

So O'Reilly might run the company but technically it is owned by these shareholders.

It is also interesting to see that O'Reilly's and O'Sullivan's options have now gone. With 21m share options between them that would have been a dilution on the company so in effect we are technically better off now because those warrants have been crushed and O'Sullivan's salary of nearly $500k has also been eliminated.

So even if O'Reilly et al's warrants were to float say 21m shares at say 9p (not unreasonable given the current price) that would raise the equivalent of about $2.5m (9p = 11c) and we would be no worse off.

So the demise of O'Reilly and O'Sullivan's warrants gives us a breather of about $2.5m at zero cost and given the new cost regime without doing the survey or the drilling would carry Providence into the new year as they look for a better partner than APEC.

Will be interesting now there is a decision on Iolar whether APEC and CNOOC will put up the cash as they now will have to either quit Ireland or concentrate on Barryroe.

And if you think banks or institutions would not lend Barryroe €30m why have the following shareholders with their respective holding percentages stood their ground? Why haven't they cut and run if Barryroe is a dead duck? They are not charities and I am sure they do not want to be diluted further with a placing.

M & G Investment Management - 14.67%
Pageant Holdings Ltd - - 11.04%
Merseyside Pension Fund - - 7.20%
Capital Group Companies, Inc - - 5.90%
Goldman Sachs International - - 5.05%
Kite Lake Capital Management (UK) LLP - - 5.05%
Marlborough Fund Managers Limited - - 4.86%
Henderson Global Investors Limited - - 3.98%
BlackRock Inc

And why did ExxonMobil up up €42m for the drilling of Druid/Drombeg if they cannot raise $30m.

Money is so cheap now that it would be foolish to do a placing now rather than borrow.

Germany has trillions of euros it was to lend at zero rate - even at below zero rate - so as long as you have the credibility just borrow say €30m, do the survey and do the drilling and kiss APEC goodbye.

When you consider that the €25m loan Providence is getting from APEC has a coupon of 5% + Libor were 12month Libor is about 0.45% so borrowing at that rate will save Providence 5% interest on the money the $25m they are supposed to be getting APEC.

Use the loan to complete the survey and drill one or two wells rather than the five and then look for a partner by which time the share price should be at a level of say 25p and you could then pay off the debt with a placing if you liked.

If Providence do not do this, it proves they have absolutely no credibility with the banks and that would be a major worry.