Member Info for Manyana

Do people not read the RNS messages? From the first one dated 8th July it stares:

"Providence has received a HSBC remittance notification dated July 5, 2019 from APEC�s funder for the transfer of US$ 10 million in favour of Providence�s bank account in Dublin with a payment date of July 9, 2019."

It does not matter when it arrives as APEC are covered.

For anybody paying money to a third party knows the money is taken out of your account once you authrise the payment and before it is transferred to the third party. In the good old days, it was the delay time that allowed the banks to make money while the transfer was in limbo.

So, HSBC have said they have received $10m from APEC which they are moving through the system to Providence. They would only have issued that after they got the money from APEC. The only potential issue is that the HSBC remittance notification is a fraud. Other than that, any problems with the transfer is HSBC's issue as, according to the notification, APEC have already paid.

So why the panic? So Providence's backstops are irrelevant but are there just to show they are doing something and just in case the money has ended up in the hands of some fraudster.

In my opinion this a f-up by Irish Revenue department. They are snowed under.

I did a bit of business about a year ago and I got the CGT Assessment for it from Revenue three days ago.

HSBC are not going to issue a statement that the money is on the way if it was not. They are far too big.

O'Reilly should have given a decent backstop at the beginning rather than this drip feed of doom and gloom and a rolling backstop every few days but never implements "the final backstop".

This is worse than the English politicians with Brexit - in or out - and the Irish backstop.

On we go.

http://www.providenceresources.com/sites/default/files/UPDATE%20TO%20BARRYROE%20FARM-OUT%20-%20FURTHER%20EXTENSION%20TO%20BACKSTOP%20DATE.pdf

I suspect we will get a decision next week because the Dail breaks up this week and Brid and her ilk will not have a platform to complain on again until the middle of September when they return which will be too late for her.

Once the TDs are gone it gives the departments some peace.

Legend has it that Robert The Bruce saw a spider repeatedly fall down and get up until it finally succeeded so came the famous adage of success "try, try and try again" so he took it as his motto.

I see Ireland's version was at it again before she got her fingers rapped in the Irish parliament. And even after that she still continued like the spider to crawl up everybody's nose.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/govts-use-of-money-messages-to-block-climate-bill-leads-to-furious-row-in-dail-935828.html

Ryan of the Green Party had the audacity to say that the use of a money message meant the Government was acting in an "unconstitutional way" even though the money message and its use is clearly defined in the Irish Constitution in Article 17.2.

The parliament goes on holiday this week and don't return until middle of September. Hopefully by then Providence will be into drilling wells on Barryroe so it will no longer be a "new license".

COSL, who are scheduled to do the heavy lifting in Barryroe, is a wholly owned subsidiary of CNOOC and CNOOC is one of the biggest oil companies in the world and is owned by the Chinese government. Enough said. No problem with the funding there.

And Brid Smith and An Taisce are indirectly paying for the drilling of the wells because of their interference which I would suspect has already cost $1m which, I presume, was the extra $1m received by Providence to pay APEC which hopefully arrived today, the 9th July, as promised.

So if Brid Smith thinks it is going to cost the government nothing if they kill the oil and gas licenses she might do well to consider that Providence has had the drill ship contracted to drill Barryroe sitting in Bergen, Norway for at least the last two months.

The COSLInnovator has been contracted to drill Barryroe by Providence but it has been sitting idle for months because of the delay in the DCCAE approval. All that has to be paid for and under the rules of oil licenses in Ireland all development costs come out of the government's tax take from the profits before the government gets a cent.

That is why, for example, the owners of Corrib gas will not pay a penny tax to the government for years if ever because of all the problems and the horrendous costs the NIMBYs in Mayo added to the project by trying to stop it thereby causing totally unnecessary delays. All of those costs associated with developing Corrib which cost in excess of €3billion can be reclaimed before the Irish government gets a cent of tax. Is Brid willing to pay for those as well?

So there is precedent that Brid Smith and her gang of "little people" would do well to think on as they, euphemistically, "put it in their pipes and smoke it" when they claim it would be a zero cost to stop all oil and gas exploration as the issue of recovering costs is written into the terms and conditions governing the granting of exploration licenses, so they should consider the costly mistakes made in Corrib and not repeat them. But will they listen? Not a chance.

It would cost the Irish Government billions in direct penalties plus billions in lost tax revenue and Brid thinks her court case has a chance. More smoke from the Greens which they hate but this is where their "pipe dream" goes up in smoke.

I am unfortunately old enough to remember the famous (or is it infamous) Poseidon bubble of 1969/1970 when a small Australian company went from 80c a share to $270 a share in about three months and then back to nearly zero in the next three months, all on the back of insider trading, hype and stock shortage. Great, if you got in at the start but what a nose bleed if you jumped in somewhere in the middle. That is the sort of hype brokers create.

Look at the dot-com bubble? Cents to hundreds of dollars for shares and back to cents. But unlike Poseidon many regained crazy prices, and some still have them which far outweigh the value of the companies they represent and a crash could come again as it is reckoned most of the big players such as Amazon, Facebook and Google are way overpriced.

The other week there was a young entrepreneur on Dragon's Den who claimed he was worth millions. When they asked him how he had done it he said he had invested, while he was a student, his student loan in Facebook. That made The Dragons choke a bit on their pretzels with them even saying "I wish I had done that".

SO, some win but their winnings are paid by the losers; where else does the money come from?

That is the role of brokers. To promote a company to get punters to back it. They tell it as they see it. Have you clicked on the "PVR Broker Estimates" at the top of this screen? Why are they all from 2013 and 2014? Because those were the halcyon days of Providence share price?

And look how much you would have lost if you believed Liberium Capital in September 2013 when they estimated a target price of £22. Now, the same oil is in Barryroe now as then so could we see Providence go to £22 or even on a 10:1 dilution to £2.20?

We would be delighted of course but those figures above should give you the heebie-jeebies when it comes to trusting them unless you want to lose your shirt.

I never go by brokers as they change their opinion like the wind. The only reason they write those reports is to get their name in print; in other words, pseudo intellectual advertising.

So if you want to follow Chenkos that is your prerogative. But did you know that "Chenkos was once so bullish on Providence that it said ...... "the shares are worth more than £16" back in 2011, long before the big Barryroe discovery in 2012.

Now Providence has a combined adviser set as of 2018 as announced at http://www.providenceresources.com/sites/default/files/APPOINTMENT%20OF%20MIRABAUD%20AS%20JOINT%20BROKER.pdf

The £16 valuation was obviously based on 60m shares so simple arithmetic (which is not really valid but here goes) compares to now where there are 600m shares sgives a price of £1.60. But over 50% of those are held by institutions who bought them for about 12p so that gives a free float of say 250m shares as the institutions are not going to sell cheap which gives an effective price of £3.20. But Providence only owns 50% of Barryroe which means the shares go back to £1.60. But then the institutions will probably double their holdings if they think there are big bucks to be made which reduces the free float back down to say 50m shares and with share shortage the shares go to £7 which they were back in the good old days when Tony told us he was going to raise $100m and use it to develop Barryroe which ended up a lie and the market, i.e. the advisers, told us Providence shares would go to over £20. And all of that was based on Barryroe alone without any input from the other Providence assets.

No wonder, after all that hot air over the years one of the now seemingly forgotten assets to keep Brid Smith and her claque quiet - but hasn't worked yet - is the Dunquin North geothermal gusher that is going to solve all of Ireland's requirements under the Kyoto Protocol. It i
.s going to transport electricity to Moneypoint - where yesterday the owners said 100 jobs would go - and will shut down the coal fired power plant, link Providence electricity into the Irish electrical grid and Ireland will use no fossil fuels, be self sufficient in electricity thanks to Providence, plus the thousands of wind turbines blighting the land and all houses with solar panels and heat pumps so what will the Providence share price be then - £100 perhaps?

As they say, "You puts in your money and you take your chance". So if you prefer Chenkos over Davy - well that is your privilege and right. I don't believe either of them.

Davy stockbrokers are Providence's financial advisers.

12th December 2018 Davy issued a research document on Providence where they valued Barryroe on a best case estimate of 311m barrels at $70 a barrel to be a share price of 70p.

Because the APEC deal has changed since then with more wells being drilled the figures might be somewhat different it is still a good estimate and Davy are well regarded in Ireland as being fair and conservative.

Read it at:

http://www.providenceresources.com/sites/default/files/Davy_Providence_Resources_Ex_Oriente_Lucrum_Barryroe_gets_the_deal_it_dese.pdf

I think you misquoted me.

Yes, I think there were far better deals for Providence other than the APEC one. For example if Sequa had been able to raise the $300m in 2015 it would have been a far better deal and we would be pumping oil by now.

If O'Reilly had spent the $100m he raised in 2012 by selling only 13.1m shares to develop Barryroe as he said he would that would have been a better deal and he could have raised even more at that time by selling say a total of 25m shares but he was protecting his daddy and so did not do it.

But I certainly think the APEC deal is far better than O'Reilly's statement - not mine - "In the event that the initial US$9 million loan advance is not received by the 5 July, the Company will need to raise equity to fund its forward commitments"."

Raising equity in the event that the APEC deal fell through would be a very bad deal in my opinion.

So the APEC deal is not my favourite but it is a zero cost deal and when it is pumping oil and Providence are not receiving as much revenue as we would like they can turn their attention to Spanish Point, Avalon and Newgrange among others where they will have the wherewithal to go it alone. And if IOLAR comes in they can also look at developing the block next door unless CNOOC buys it from them at a hefty price.

I did not say last week that the deal was "not good"for Providence but what I said was I thought there was a better one. But the only way the APEC deal could be stopped was if APEC defaulted, thus breaking the contract, which they clearly have not done so the deal is on.

And a deal is a deal which Providence has been seeking for years with numerous false dawns. So even though I think it will be years before Providence sees any real money it is at least a free carry with APEC taking the risk which actually proves to me there are millions of barrels of oil in Barryroe because APEC has given Providence by way of a non-recourse loan a free ride and the Chinese would not do that without making sure the oil is there.

It is also good that the deal is on and the money paid because if Brid Smith dared to take her case to court she would have to prove that the government would not have to repay the Chinese. She might have a chance with an Irish company such as Providence but I don't think she would want to take on the Chinese.

It is a bit like Brexit in the UK; the people voted to leave. You might think that was a bad deal but you have to stick with it - that is what democracy is all about. I was enraged years ago when Ireland had a vote on the Lisbon Treaty and the "No" vote won so they had a second one which the "yes" vote won because that was what the government wanted. That is not democracy.

As for my buying shares last week, that is what I have been doing for years in Providence shares. At the crazy price last week it was too good a deal to miss. I did not want to indicate how many I bought, how many I have overall or my break even price because that would be just putting it up to the people who have been burnt by this share over the years since 2012.

I see Brid is still on the warpath and threatening to take the government to court over her bill.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/nothing-but-lies--brid-smith-threatens-legal-action-against-government-for-blocking-climate-bill-935427.html

She says "the Government is bringing a rarely-used Parliamentary rule into play to block it from moving forward." Could somebody please send Brid a copy of the Irish constitution and point out item 17.2 where it clearly states what a money message is and how it is used. As for being rarely used, according to the last report it has been used 55 times recently, which is hardly used.

As for her statement that it would not cost a penny, perhaps she would like to start with the $10m Providence received this morning. And as for the oil in Barryroe, I am sure the Chinese will be only too happy to ship it back to China if Ireland does not want it.

And where is she getting the money to go all the way to the high court? And how long does she think it will be before she gets to court? Barryroe will probably be pumping oil before then.

Good to see, that after all these years the train is finally leaving the station. Thought it might be too rusted up but seems to have got up a head of steam.

Interesting that $10m came across with $1m set aside for APEC costs. Could be APEC's contribution to the expenses in getting the Approval which I presume is an added extra to the original costs and obviously should be shared.
But at least Providence's coffers will look a lot healthier after this given that they had no debt before and are now covered through to the drill.

Given the activity, I wonder if we can get to a year high today which was 17.90p. Probably not as there will probably be some profit taking by the "fly-by-nighters" leaving the heavy listing to faithful like ourselves.

I hope Maams can now accept that O'Reilly does know when to keep his mouth shut when the time is right. Unfortunately the UK Ambassador to the USA could do with learning that lesson and it shows the dangers of putting things in emails.

Reminds me of the old Stanley Holloway about Albert and his horses head handle which he stuck in a lion's ear. Here it is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oaw-savyK0s and think of that poor ambassador.

There was more chance of APEC defaulting than the approval being refused.

After all it was only a minor technicality that made Providence withdraw the first approval and given the iterations in the discussions between the department and Providence since having petered out in Providence's favour you can be sure they have now dotted all the "i"s and crossed all the "t"s.

I expect the department withheld the approval pending the funeral of Brid's bill last Thursday so it is now clear water to give the approval which should be sooner rather than later - possibly even today.

Then its all hands to the decks and let's start pumping some oil.

You put in your money and you take your chance.

Will be interesting to see what it opens at and how it fares during the day. Should at least hit 12p.

Will be able to buy myself some sweets having bought a reasonable amount the other day to add to my collection.

Now all we need is the approval which I believe will now be given shortly as we are now waiting longer for that than CNOOC.

Mamms, if I was to go on your logic I would presume the money was paid when the share price, even taking account of the kicking of Brid's rear end, rose by 23.37% on Friday. That is a healthy daily rise in anybody's book. If I got a fraction of that from a bank I would be delighted.

As a brave purchaser for a reasonable quantity on Thursday I can but hope that your notion that APEC have paid up is true.

If that is tomorrow's news and the approval comes in this week, which based on CNOOC is not before time, we might even hear the champagne corks popping; a bit like they did at Wimbledon last week when they ended up on the court.

LONGWAIT,

I used 311 because Davy used 311.

Yes there is gas but it is mixed in with the oil so it will either have to be separated out or it will have to be flared off in which case it cannot be counted to give a valid figure. Now if it had to be flared off that would really redden Brid's rear end. I am sure they will not flare it off in this climate age but until they make a decision, perhaps using KEL's now defunct resources, we will not know.

They have only tested one section of Barryroe. There are two lower layers which they have not drilled, the Cretaceous and the Purbecian boyh of which seismic indicates are oil bearing. The following indicates this. "Mapping confirms the Barryroe closure persists to Base Cretaceous level and the overpressured shales of the Purbeckian should provide an effective seal for any potential accumulation."

I don't think people do enough research. Here is a statement from last year about the time of the APEC deal which states "It is six years since Providence Resources successfully flow tested a well at Barryroe, and it is estimated it holds between 1bn and 1.6bn barrels of oil."

The article is https://www.breakingnews.ie/business/cork-coast-has-potential-to-become-billion-dollar-enterprise-as-hunt-for-oil-intensifies-856119.html

All of this information can be found on the Providence website in the presentations and reports.

Of course it makes a difference if the money is there. It means the deal is on.

The money will add at least 50% to the price and agreement on the approval will add another 50%, in total at least doubling Providence's current price.

If you check Davy's valuation report on Providence you will find they estimate the 2C value at 77p a share based on 311m barrels in Barryroe alone. So what is it worth if the are correct and there is over 1billion barrels?

The only issue, if APEC has defaulted, will be the time wasted putting together another deal.

If I knew that the money was there I would put in a forward order now and it would be first in the queue Monday morning.

If you know anything about algo-trading you would know fortunes are made and lost in split seconds. If I can buy ahead of you at a price on a rising market you are paying for my bargain.

Most traders are now using algo-trading where bots scan the papers for news on shares, analyse it, and buy or sell depending on what it says. The days of human traders is coming to an end.

So if O'Reilly opened his mouth now the bots would pick it up, be first in the market on Monday morning and would and the rest of us could go hang.

Read the following about algo-trading wher it points out "The trade, in theory, can generate profits at a speed and frequency that is impossible for a human trader."

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/101014/basics-algorithmic-trading-concepts-and-examples.asp