Member Info for Manyana

What money? Without a deal, Providence is broke. Can't see that as a reason for moving.

Hopefully they will announced a deal, share price will rise and then they can issue shares.

He currently has 15m options at 4.15p which are worthless unless they can exceed that price so, if no deal in the meantime, and price stays at 2p how many shares do you think they will need to issue to get enough money to last, say a year? At a minimum, I would expect about 300m giving them £6m. Might as well make it a nice round 400m shares issued bringing the total to 1billion giving them £8m to work with.

There is no alternative other than a deal with Petronas. If you read the article, it talks about sequestering gas in the defunct Kinsale Energy gas fields. Who owns that network of defunct gas fields but Petronas through KEL. They might not have any gas left in all those wells but they still own the infrastructure and the wells. And Petronas has plenty of money having made about $14billion profit last year so if Petronas is not part of the deal who is going to buy it off them? Not Providence. They have no money.

ps200306,

I thought you did not read my posts. Obviously cant resist because know I am right and you are wrong and you keep banging on to try and prove a point. You obviously also suffer from insomnia when you are posting at 5:11 in the morning. Must be getting under your skin.

There is an old adage which says "If you don't strike oil after five minutes, stop boring".

First of all there was oil in Seven Heads. Note: "The Seven Heads structure is close to the center of the North Celtic Sea basin, where it underlies Blocks 48/23, 48/24, 48/25, 48/28, 48/29, and 48/30. It is west and southwest of Kinsale Head field. Marathon previously leased the area, and Esso Ireland Ltd. held an interest in it. The lease expired in late 1994. Marathon and Esso drilled five wells on the structure during 1974-90. Four of the wells recorded significant oil and gas shows." So you were wrong on that point.

Next, you say there is not enough gas in Barryroe to make it commercial. They claim at least +200bcf is there. How much is in Corrib (1tn = 5x Barryroe). How much did it cost to develop Corrib? About €3billion ($3.5billion). So, even one fifth of that is $700m. Do you think it is going to cost anything like that to develop the whole of Barryroe, oil and gas? APEC estimated the oil was going to cost $200m. Will it cost $500m to develop the gas? If Corrib is commerical, as is clear from its current owners, why not Barryroe gas?

Not only that, but all costs, present and previous, associated with development past and future are all tax free under the Irish exploration terms which at 25% rising to 50% means a saving of at least $150m if not more.

I think you are being pessimistic for the sake of it. Listen to Linn, especially the article this morning in the Independent and as I pointed out the "leprechauns" - the little Green men" - are starting to crawl out from under their rocks and are saying what they would do if they ever got into power, God help us.

I think I prefer Linn's take on this rather than yours. Why does a man of 63, a few years away from retirement, take on a "bum steer" as you claim? Is he for the birds?

Answers on a postcard please.

I like your term "greenwashing". That is exactly what it is, but since when have politicians be other than "greenwashers"? After all, when it comes to business they are absolutely "green".

For example, the proportion of Irish politicians who were teachers is extremely high. And why? Because, in Ireland, if a teacher runs for election and loses he can go back to his teacher job which is held for him in abeyance until he retires. With that guarantee, why would you not run for election? And how many teachers know the first thing about business?

If you don't believe me and you wonder about the rest who "qualify" as one thing such as lawyers and never practice here is a very interesting article which discusses that very point.

https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/tds-as-teachers-5008126-Feb2020/

But back to Petronas and Providence. There have been two deals where Providence bought into Kinsale, at one stage paying $3.8m to Petronas for the privilege before pulling out and then another deal in 2015 which they also pulled out of.

Is it any wonder Petronas would never deal with O'Reilly after that as he could never complete the deals he signed up for. Hopefully Linn will do his homework better than that if he contemplates a deal.

Perhaps ps200306 is unaware of the fact that there was oil in Seven Heads but when it was owned by Ramco they sold it off. " During the first half of last year we announced the farm-out of a part of Ramco's interest in the Seven Heads oil potential". So much for Seven Heads being "dry". But like the gas in Seven Heads both its oil and gas turned out to be a disappointment.

So the idea that Seven Heads was "pure" gas was a myth. And just as Providence can focus on the gas to get it up and running they can also separate the oil and pipe it into tankers. Again for those long in the tooth they will remember that O'Reilly signed an MOA with Shell to off-tanker Barryroe oil. Where it would end up was either Whitegate or possibly Milford Haven in Wales.

So much to play for. Hopefully Linn has the nous to make it work to all of our benefits.

"Providence entered into a MOA with Shell Trading and Marketing to agree an oil off-take agreement for future Barryroe oil production."

So, I expect a joint venture with Petronas and KEL for the gas feeding the current Kinsale Alpha platform with the offshoot of the oil being tankered to Whitegate. That is how the current system works with the gas, now nearly depleted from Kinsale and the current import of oil tankered into Whitegate which is now owned by Irving Oil of Canada.

When you consider that Whitegate belonged to Irish National Petroleum Company until they sold it in 2001 you have to wonder how much collective brains exist in any Irish government.

SirNigelW, Get Real. Do you live in Ireland?

This is not about whether it is an oil field or a gas field. It is about politics and the way you tell them.

Say it is an oil field and every "loonie" will crawl up your back. Say it is a gas field that has oil and we need gas, won't cost us a fortune, does not need to travel and the infrastructure is already in place and what is the difference?

Ireland currently spends €5.7bn a year importing fossil fuels and at its highest was about €6.5bn between oil and gas. With its "generous" approach to immigration and an exploding population you can expect that to grow to about €8bn in less than ten years.

Do we need gas? Yes. Can you stop development of gas in Barryroe? No, because it sits on top of the defunct Seven Heads gas field. Q.E.D.

Brid Smith brought in a bill stopping drilling for oil. Fortunately got cut off at the pass with the dissolution of the Dail but you can be sure she will be back with another one if a government is formed. But can she bring in a bill saying "we don't need any more gas and when Corrib runs out we will import it all from Russia or from those nice Amricans who will ship us tons of LNG and store it in that nice terminus they are going to build in Shannon?"

So this approach of gas with oil sticks that right up her jacksie and it is the same even if the "Greens" get into power with Fine Fail and Fine Gael which is the only way this sorry country is going to end up with a government or another election which will probably then become a communist state under Sinn Fein.

So it is as the comedian Frank Carson used to say "It's the way I tell 'em" followed by "It's a cracker".

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Youtube+frank+carson+its+the+way&&view=detail&mid=E8BF73535C6B46E3D6F1E8BF73535C6B46E3D6F1&&FORM=VDRVRV

Linn pointed out where O'Reilly shot his bolt.

He pointed out that O'Reily had concentrated on the Western Margin instead of Barryroe.

Fooled by O'Sullivan and Schlumberger he thought he had hit pay dirt with Druid/Drombeg.

Total cumulative in-place un-risked prospective resources of c. 5.095BBO (PMean)
oDruid -3.180BBO(PMean)
oDrombeg -1.915 BBO(PMean

Obviously "un-risked??????" 5.095 billion barrels of oil would have made him the hero of the Irish oil industry. Instead - water- making him the biggest chump having spent millions of our money.

Nothing like "bird in the hand worth many crows in the bush".

The Barryroe license is owned by Providence until July 2021.

Not only that but the legislation says:

"In exceptional circumstances and in order to allow the performance of a further agreed work programme, the Minister may consider and grant an application for the continuation of an Exploration Licence beyond the period for which it was issued."

So there is nothing stopping a partnership with Petronas extending into the future beyond 2021. Do you think the minister is going to hand Barryroe over to the Chinese, for example? Bad enough having Brid Smith breathing down your neck but that would be a fate worse than death.

It is amazing that Linn made some very relevant points in that presentation but people then say "Only believe an RNS". What is an RNS? It is a report on the Reuters News Service? It is no more trustworthy than what Linn said the other day. It is just an historical anachronism and could just as easily be on Bloomberg's News Service now that Bloomberg has ditched his presidential aspirations.

So why RNS and not Linn?

Of course there would be some development on the part of Providence if they had a joint venture. For example, have you ever heard of an oil gas separator?

https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=kPAVgQaC&id=351EC8392020A1C2892CA310F7DFA4CB7C76E763&thid=OIP.kPAVgQaCfnoEWniCmGXoQwHaEf&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2f2.bp.blogspot.com%2f-fczdGuIiDtI%2fWS6ze1Ie8sI%2fAAAAAAAAAPQ%2fgxAC8gpIN4A_meBlPIrbLDnfskGm0Z-cQCLcB%2fs1600%2fHorizontal-Three-Phase-Separators.png&exph=345&expw=569&q=separator+oil+gas+field&simid=608013454226555737&selectedIndex=0&ajaxhist=0

Also you are incorrect when you say there are 24 wellheads. There are only 19 which are due to be decommissioned.

And Barryroe always said they were 3km from the Kinsale gas interchange.

As for the fact that Barryroe is not a gas field I suggest you go back and listen to the interview with Linn where he places that suggestion directly where the sun does not shine for you. You claimed that it was "too small" at 200bcf but he put that in perspective when he compared it to numerous wells in the North Sea.

Back in the box please and pull down the lid.

Imagine the cost of this decommissioning? $50m if you are lucky.

So surely better to do a deal and as this article stated Petronas made a $13.5bn (€12bn) profit in 2018. To not do this deal would only be "to cut off your nose to spite your face".

Perhaps KEL did not like O'Reilly but they have no axe to grind with the ex-Tullow men, Plunkett, McCoss and Linn.

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/end-of-an-era-as-kinsale-gas-field-set-to-run-dry-38069782.html

I am delighted to see that ps200306 now admits the play is about "gas" which I have been claiming for months.

And now I hear the moaning about a "deal" and how long it is going to take so let us look at some facts that seem to have been missed.

If Providence were to strike a deal with "somebody" who/what is the entity most suitable for a deal? Petronas, of course. They wholly own Kinsale Energy Limited who are still pumping gas, however little, from Kinsale.

Two weeks ago they agreed a deal with DCCAE to decommission the whole of the Kinsale gas field with the proviso that the infrastructure could be used by somebody else. Who can that be? Only Providence because Barryroe could feed the gas to use it.

So, given the innunedos expressed by Linn in his interview the other day it is clear they are discussing a joint venture with Kinsale. After all, if they have gas and oil in Barryroe it has to come up through the defunct Seven Heads gas field.

So, a joint venture with KEL or a buyout by Petronas means that the political and legal elements of the "resurrection" of the gas supply is just and extension of the Seven Heads Gas Field so there is no political motivation to stop it.

I believe that deal will be completed sooner rather than later. Perhaps people do not realise that originally Barryroe was to be called "Seven Heads" but the name Barryroe was picked to differentiate it from Seven Heads Gas Field. That is how close the synergy between these two companies is. So the sooner a deal the better and the sooner they can start pumping Barryroe gas to Whiddy.

Interesting heading title to interview with Alan Linn, CEO Providence.

"New development approach for Barryroe unveiled by new Providence CEO". This has only occurred after Kinsale was given the approval of the minister on 23rd February 2020 when the Minister gave his final approval for the " 'Kinsale Head Decommissioning Plan".

The heading here obviously shows that things must be moving ahead quite quickly on the gas front since it has obviously become the predominant play now that they way is clear to check what Kinsale resources can be recycled for the Barryroe gas.

After all, the final decommissioning plan for Kinsale was only agreed and issued on 24th February 2020, less than 2 weeks ago, which stated as follows: "On 24 February 2020, the Minister approved The 'Kinsale Head Decommissioning Plan".

Less than 2 weeks ago is very recent, so it is now time for the discussions between KEL and Providence to agree future use of resources. There was no point in discussing shared resources before the approval was given as that would have been a "piece of string" since the decommissioning has to be planned now before any development as it will have to be implemented hopefully years hence when the gas from Barryroe runs out.

Onward and upward.

I have been preaching Barryroe "gas" for months but" noddies" like ps200306 told me I was talking through my proverbial, that there was too little gas at 200bcf in Barryroe to make it worthwhile.

Will he now please eat his words and admit he was wrong?

Now we hear the new CEO preaching gas and then oil and actually we did hear something new when he said "The infrastructure is already there" which is exactly what I have been saying.

But that statement by him is very important because that infrastructure belongs to Petronas and not to Providence so obviously they are talking to Petronas about using its infrastructure and Petronas is rich enough to buy Barryroe but is certainly big enough to become a major partner is developing the gas which sits below their own defunct Seven Heads gas field and not only that have the defunct defunct gas fields for gas capture in the same infrastructure.

He must be pretty confident of a deal to make that statement and given that I am sure he instigated that interview they must be some way along a deal with Petronas to say it now.

So as I said months ago, obviously an APEC deal would have been all about oil as they wanted to shunt it back to China and gas would have been too costly to do that but everything has now changed.

So gas is now the order of the day, they have stated that they expect a deal "within" six months and since Seven Heads was developed in the space of nine months in 2003 which involved laying the pipes, drilling the well heads and tying the field back to the Petronas' Alpha platform there is no reason with a fair wind that Barryroe could be pumping gas in a very short space of time.

And Brid Smith can kiss her mantra goodbye when she talks about "no drilling".

As they say "It's great gas".

"The infrastructure is all there".

Don't blame Providence. Blame the EU.

You cannot touch the sea without complying with EU Directives so the three requests to the DCCAE were all at the demand of the EU. You have only got to look at the first request which was killed by the judicial review instigated by An Taisce.

As for the one O'Reilly did in September, obviously whatever information that produced was reviewed and it was found that there was potentially a better location which has instigated this latest one.

I am sure they used the information from the site survey in September to revise the location of the latest one. With its precarious finances, I am sure they were not stupid enough to waste money so they must think the potential of this site is very important.

It is interesting that this latest one is right on the edge of Barryroe pretty close to where Providence signed a 60%/40% deal with Kinsale some years ago which was in the block just to the right of this one where they agreed to drill a well in what is specified as OPL/1 which is actually outside Barryroe.

So is this survey a precursor to a deal with Kinsale given its location and is at the request of Kinsale?

You can see that this survey is not near the other potential wells from the diagram on page 3 of the following which also delineates the Kinsale gas pipelines on Barryroe:

https://www.dccae.gov.ie/en-ie/natural-resources/consultations/Documents/30/consultations/Exola_%20DAC_Barryroe_K_Application_To_Conduct_Site_Survey.pdf

Y

The question is how do you prove the continuity? Do they have to drill an appraisal well and if so who is going to pay for it? And how do you prove Barryroe is a large gas field surrounded by an oil rim? Again that implies drilling rather than clearing a space for a wellhead.

Perhaps the deal for a partnership is the cost of drilling the well.

But that still leaves the gas for the quick kill.

Surely an RNS in the not too distant future. After all, O'Reilly is now gone three months and we have less activity than when he was there. After all, he could have saved his bacon by developing Barryroe so why did he not do that but spent millions on wildcat escapades.

Interesting point; Schlumberger is delisting from LSE at the end of March. It will still continue on NYSE and Euronext but says LSE activity too small. Its annual report, however, is quite upbeat regarding exploration as it points out American daily output is falling by a substantial amount. My point about fracking being too expensive coming home to roost?

https://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/schlumberger-posts-revenue-bump-but-lower-profit/

My February date was based on the September statement by O'Reilly about the raising of the $3.76 raising where the money would last until the beginning of February and was to be used as follows: Use of proceeds

Re-engineering of company $750,000
Site Survey $500,000
General Working Capital US$2,512,526

Given that costs have reduced it gave it the benefit of another month but the latest would indicate we have money for a bit longer Now they say, as you say, there is now another month or two, but what is worrying about the latest statement is when they raise the issue of reservoir continuity and the appraisal program and state "It is specifically designed to address these reservoir uncertainties". Which means the uncertainties are still there regarding compartmentalisation. So, does this mean we are back in square one where compartmentalisation has raised it hoary head again?

I believe gas has to be reduced to -160 degrees centigrade. How difficult and expensive is that in the middle of the Sahara and, I presume you use a lot of gas to run the LNGo. And what is the cost of that? Surely it adds quite a cost to the process and the transportation of the tankers across the desert. After all, Tullow uses 100 specialised tankers to move oil from Tirkana to Mombassa. That cannot be cheap.

In fact, the Tullow oil discovery in Tirkana transports some oil by tanker to Mombassa. " Tullow uses a fleet of 100 specialised tankers to lift 2,000 barrels per day over the 1,000 kilometres. The suspension derails the Ministry of Petroleum’s shipment target of 500,000 barrels of oil. In December, Tullow said only 150,000 barrels of oil had been ferried to Mombasa for pre-shipment ".
Surely not the most cost effective way to do it.

And as for our new management, they are noticeable by their silence.

How long do you think we will have to wait to get some response from Barryroe's new management? I know they said within six months but surely Linn came with something or did he just take the job because it was better than the one he had?

And why have we had no word of the EGM to approve the share options? They have to be approved at an EGM or an AGM and given today is the last day of February what is the situation with the finances as they were supposed to run out today? Surely given the state of the finances an RNS is due as to what they are going to do and a share issue with the current price being about 2.5p would need billions of shares to raise any reasonable level of cash. On the other hand, if things were looking good surely a loan would be a far better way to go but that would need a statement of progress on a deal to work.

No wonder our venerable management jumped ship (or were they pushed) on their departure from Tullow.

Here is an interesting article on Tullow's Kenya oil venture where they "found" billions of barrels of oil in Turkana which needs an 825km pipeline to transport it to the coast. Not only that, but the following article would indicate the amount of oil has been exaggerated.

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001360845/tullow-oil-the-big-lie

With $2.8billion of debt, it will take Tullow years to recover. As the article points out Tullow could be up for sale a "any price".

Actually your mentioning of SOU is interesting as a comparative to PVR.

If you do the calculation you find that Tendrara gas field has about 220bcf of gas, approximately the same as Barryroe's initial estimate of the gas.

SOU has to develop a a 120km pipeline from its Tendrara Gas find to the Moroccan coast. How much will that cost and what are the benefits? It costs about $5m per km to construct a gas pipeline so the cost of the pipe will be about $500m and then you need the facilities at both ends which will cost about another $100m giving a total of say $600m.

So, here is Providence with a ready made infrastructure with a minimum of 220bcf and more of gas which can be accessed at minimal cost with immediate effect versus a development that will take probably two or three years to develop at a cost $600m in the hostile environment of the desert which has an enclosure 50m wide running its whole length which must be protected.

No wonder it is in abeyance. Which one would you prefer?

It is interesting to check the Petronas mission statement for Europe. It says:

"Our objective is to create a successful, sustainable and asset-backed trading business in Europe. We also want to make a positive, long-term investment in Europe’s energy infrastructure to benefit homes, businesses and communities alike."

Given that their assets in Europe are now nearly defunct and they are planning decommissioning they will have to do something to "make a positive, long-term investment in Europe's energy..." Everything they have in Europe is now defunct and exhausted.

When you consider that Petronas have revenues of $46 billion a year, they could buy Providence out of their small change.

The price of oil could really get a kick if either Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren were to win the American presidency. Both have stated that they want to ban fracking outright.

"Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren both want to ban fracking outright. Warren has promised to ban it “everywhere” via executive order on her first day in office."

Now that would cause some chaos in America given that they produce about 10m barrels a day and is expected to rise to 17m a day by 2023.

A number of years ago T'OR quoted a price of $25 a barrel for Barryroe.

Sine 2013 WTI has been as low as $29.69 before a slow recovery where it is $47.09. Brent, which is akin to the oil in Barryroe normally trades above WTI with a margin of about $5, today trading at $51.28. Forecast is for a price of $87 by the end of 2023 .

So even if Providence got a partner to develop the oil would you expect oil to be flowing before 2024?

But you can see from the turmoil and oil price in the period 2012-2016 from the price in the following chart that, especially with the Transocean court case, they equity raise to pay of Melody and to pay Transocean, nobody was ever going to come on board except the abortive Sequa deal which was never a runner because they could not raise the money.

And you can discount 2017 onwards because they were in discussions with APEC for months before they announced a deal in March 2018.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2516/wti-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart

So let us look at the gas as a quick kill. When Seven Heads was found and brought on stream it took nine months from start to finish. "he Seven Heads development achieved production in nine months from approval."

Now, if Providence could repeat that I am sure we would all be delighted and as Plunkett and Linn pointed out in their RNS there are two distinct groups looking separately at the oil and the gas and if I was a "guessing" man I would presume Petronas must surely be one of those as the decommissioning is going to cost it an arm and a leg. There is also the issue of the of the 60 employees it currently has. What happens to them if Petronas pulls the plug?

And just for good measure, consider the proposal by Fastnet that there was another "Barryroe" under "Deep" Kinsale Head in 2013. But Fastnet now has nothing to do with oil and gas having been taken over so surely a combination of Barryroe and Deep Old Kinsale head is one mighty potential oil and gas field and a combined Providence and Petronas the vehicle.

Here is Fastnet's schematic of what it was talking about

https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=Pw1qu8vL&id=372502CFDD4313A2A656D93A8D2BD10131A7E803&thid=OIP.Pw1qu8vL8LCGPHYsgPFitwHaFC&mediaurl=http%3a%2f%2fimages.energy365dino.co.uk%2fstandard%2f140769_d08dde99554643cbbfbc.jpg&exph=508&expw=747&q=seven+heads+gas+field&simid=608011568694888466&selectedIndex=0&ajaxhist=0

What you are seeing there is the consolidation of 100:1 shares. So when it says 8.08 it equates to 100 shares each worth 8.8p which Morningstar has applied across the board..

I know, because I was a shareholder back then and my shares were consolidated and any "odd" shares left over after the division by 100 was paid off in cash. Note:

"there was a proposed reduction of share capital and dis-application of pre-emption rights in 2008. I believe the consolidation was 1 for 100 so your share holding would now be 150 shares with a value of £435."

As I said, would have been very rich if each share had been £8.08 but unfortunately didn't quite work like that.