Member Info for Manyana

Two problems in 2014 for Providence were the share price crash and the court case with Transocean which O'Reilly kept quiet about for about two years.

In the drill for Barryroe in 2012 it was agreed that they would also do a sidetrack but the equipment from Transocean failed and they were unable to do it. This was a problem because the sidetrack would have proven if compartmentalisation existed or not.

There was a court case between Providence and Transocean in 2014 which Providence won but it was appealed and in 2016 the High Court found both were at fault and Providence had to raise capital to pay off its debts to Melody and to pay the cost the courts ordered them to pay Transocean.

So during that time there was no chance anybody was going to join Providence in drilling Barryroe. In fact, the suspicion was that the "dogs" were waiting to chew Providence up if it went bust.

That is not the situation now. Providence is "clean". No debt, no court cases and history has shown that the oil price may fall but it recovers and a possible oil price of $40 a barrel could be a godsend as it will totally kibosh American fracking which needs at least $50 a barrel and in some cases it is estimated at $70 a barrel. Producing 10m barrels a day at that level will kill huge numbers of them in short time and America will have to go back to importing oil and gas again.

So a good time for somebody to do a deal but perhaps not at the level of APEC. But then, any deal worth more than say 25p a share would be a bonus for most of us.

Where did you get the information that "share peice(sic) got to £8.08 in May 2008"?
If Providence had been that price back in 2008 I would have an island in the Caribbean along with Richard Branson.

In 2008, Providence shares were about 5p as you will see from the following if you click on "Max" on the right hand side.

I think you meant 8.08p.

https://www.bing.com/search?q=providence+resources+share+price&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&ghc=1&pq=providence+resources+share+price&sc=7-32&sk=&cvid=0BD9302D4C1E4065B0729CE5DA0C6CAC
Iff

Check the following and on the right click on "Max". It will show you the historical prices for Providence going back before 2008 and you will see on

Are you a pedant, Longwait, to be quibbling over 44.44p or 45.76p? The price is pure speculation based on a particular set of circumstances.

What we want is for Linn and/or Plunkett to pull of a deal and then go for a float. That way, the price of the float will reflect the potential and not the current zero value wen they have nothing to go on.

There are potentially five or six possible deals on the table. Any one will turn this baby round.

Still plenty of scope for dilution. It all depends if it is with or without a deal.

Look at the facts.

When Providence was at its peak after discovering Barryroe it had 60m shares with a price of $6.65. That valued the company at £400m. So that should be the benchmark.

Presumably, if Plunkett and Linn can light up a deal it should go back to that valuation as the assets are still there.

Today Providence is worth £18m and a share price of 2.5p because it has no working assets.

So, if they announced a partnership to develop Barryroe what price would you expect? At the current level of 600m shares and a company value of £400m that gives a share price of 66.66p share. If Providence issued 300m shares and with a company value of £400m the share price would be 44.44p.

So a 50% dilution with a deal gives a share price of 44.44p. Now I would be quite happy with that. To be really good, if they issued 300m shares would be the issue price of the new shares and even if they got back to their 5p a share it would give them £15m working capital.

Now, I could live with that and any value above 5p would be real bunce.

Here's hoping.

First of all corrections to PS200306 statements.

He talks about Providence share price. It was never "eight quid back in the day". The highest share price Providence reached was £6.65 on September 27th 2012 so it never got to £8.

Furthermore, he is totally misleading when he mentions his figure but he is also wrong if you accept £6.65 as the highest share price. At the time there were only 60m shares in Providence. There are now 600M which means, prorata, the highest share price, based on 600m shares was 66.5p.

Regarding the schematic mentioned, here it is
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=aBweoT5T&id=FCE85B0B5CD69624A4F272BE2214BC420E7F3998&thid=OIF.kA8GDew5T4hGAULta6rHVQ&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fimg.offshore-mag.com%2ffiles%2fbase%2febm%2fos%2fimage%2f2020%2f02%2fbarryroe.5e4ec49012d8b.png%3fauto%3dformat%26fit%3dmax%26w%3d1200&exph=659&expw=946&q=providence+resources&simid=77618977478&selectedIndex=17&ajaxhist=0

Regarding the oil and the gas, the statement re the discovery in 2012 stated that "WELL FLOWS AT A STABILISED RATE OF 3,514 BOPD & 2.93 MMSCFGD (4,000 BOEPD)" So you see a combination of oil and gas. If you check the above diagram this came out of well 48/24-10z and you will note it only went through two strata.

Compare that to the proposed wells, and you will see that 48/24-1 and 48/28-1 also go through the Middle Wealden Sands as well where is projected there are far more oil than in the current of Barryroe itself.

Finally, I note a headline from Sunday Business Post which is quit influential in Ireland as it covers the business of the week where it says "Cash-strapped exploration company is ‘considering its funding options’ but says site has considerable gas reserves".

https://www.businesspost.ie/energy/providence-resources-seeks-new-permit-for-third-drill-site-at-barryroe-prospect-ea684ebd

And PS200306 thinks the gas is too small and irrelevant to be worth developing. Tell that to Linn, Plunkett and McCoss.

Obviously the long term is for oil in Barryroe to be developed but in the meantime the gas play stymies those "greens" and "lefties" in Ireland - such as Brid Smith who is now gungho since her re-election - but who cannot preclude gas because they don't like "fracked" nor do they like the proposed LNG terminal in Shannon and importing it from Britain post Brexit could be expensive. And, by the way, a large percentage of British gas which comes on to Ireland is actually coming from Norway through the UK using the Langeland pipeline and they are working on an electric connection between the two countries as well.

Yes, the gas is intermixed with the oil but this happens all the time in oil fields where "flaring" has been used to remove the gas, but is to be banned by 2030, and keep the oil. But where you want to keep both you use a "separator" which sorts the oil, gas and water into its components.

For those long in the tooth you will remember that in 2011 O'Reilly signed an MOA with Shell - "In 2011, Providence entered into a MOA with Shell Trading and Marketing to agree an oil off-take agreement for future Barryroe oil production." So, when both oil and gas come up the separator can sort out the water, oil and gas, offloading the oil to tankers.

This, of course, would be for starters as later on I am sure they can then lay pipes into Whitegate Refinery, once owned by the State along with Whiddy Island where the Kinsale gas comes ashore but Whitegate is now owned by the Irving Family of Canada. It can handle up to 75,000 barrels of oil a day but will probably need to be overhauled.

The beauty of this plan is that the Brid Smith(s) of this potentially socialist country could not have a leg to stand on. So start with the gas and move on to the oil and listen to Brid scream.

And finally for those again long in the tooth they might remember that in 2013 Fastnet reckoned there was another "Barryroe" under the Kinsale Head gas field and signed a farm-in deal with LSE Kinsale to check it out. Unfortunately for Fastnet they decided to stop oil exploration when they were taken over by Amryt Pharma in 2016 in a reverse takeover which turned Fastnet into a shell and gave Amryt Pharma access to AIM and the Fastnet deal with Kinsale fell by the wayside so that deal is potentially there for grabs with the potential of another Barryroe under Kinsale Head.

https://www.businesspost.ie/legacy/fastnet-sees-another-barryroe-beneath-kinsale-field-96cf8289

The reason why gas is cheaper is because it is cheaper to produce. And production costs not only cover "out of the ground" but also includes the cost of developing the infrastructure to produce it. So if gas is cheaper then it is far cheaper to produce and when you look at gas and Barryroe the price of production is totally minimal because all the infrastructure is already there.

After all "fracked oil" in America is far more expensive that the market price which means America will soon stop "fracking" unless the price of oil increases substantially.

Look at Corrib. Mooted to cost €800m it ended up costing €3.5billion got 1 trillion cubic feet and when Shell sold it on to Vermillin, it lost its shirt on development costs. So on a pro rata basis Providence in Barryroe with 210billion should cost 1/5 to develop giving a price of no more than €50 because the expensive part, the platforms, the wellheads, the 150km of pipe, the Whiddy storage facility are "free" because they are already there and since they are obsolete to Kinsale they must either decommission them at vast cost, give them to Providence or join Providence in a joint eventure along the lines of the proposed drilling of OPL 1 on a 60/40% basis which, like many of O'Reilly's schemes is now defunct.

So, the only thing Providence has to do is to drill down for the gas and tie it into the nearest Seven Heads junction which is 3km (1.9m) away, or to drill down the current wells below the 4,000 ft line which is where Barryroe starts or even drill sidetracks.

Currently it is estimated that American fracked oil is costing about $70 a barrel and many of the American "frackers" are in the red when the price of oil is below that. And according to reports it is getting worse but is being supported by the American government 'til, probably, after the election in November.

"Normal" oil is estimated to be costing about $50 a barrel, even though O'Reilly talked about a price of $25 a barrel to develop Barryroe. Obviously since it is in such shallow water that is an advantage but it is $25 more than it costs to produce a "barrel" of gas out of Barryroe because those costs have already been paid for by Kinsale.

So, lets start comparing apples with apples and not apples with figs that seem to be crawling out of somebody's crazy imagination, and it is not mine.

The reason why it is worth going for is because it is so cheap to develop. Surely the cheapest option would be to deepen the current wellheads to below the 4,000 ft line which delineates Seven Heads from Barryroe. Now surely that cannot cost more than say $10m. After all, Seven Heads when it was developed as a gas field was put in place in about nine months so surely a quick kill would be to check if there was more gas down there. And given that they now think Barryroe could be a giant gas field with an oil ring it is surely worth exploring.

Kinsale have a number of choices. Join up with Providence to develop it, pass the infrastructure to Providence to develop it with a third party for zero cost or, finally walk away just abandoning it after spending millions on decommissioning it and when you consider they have to lay rocks on 150km of pipe and well as recreate Whiddy storage into farmland, plug all the well heads, remove the two platforms by dismantling them and shifting them out to be recycled.

There was no point in Providence getting involved with Kinsale before now because they would have had to see what Kinsale were going to do to decommission it and get the necessary approvals from DCCAE.

And given that last Friday was the last day for objections to the latest site survey by Providence "This application was posted on the Department's website on 22 January 2020 and any submission received by close of business on 21 February 2020 will be considered by the Minister. " we should know soon enough if that is going ahead.

One point of note, when Providence did the surveys last September it cost $500k which means Lansdowne, with its 20% should have paid $100k for that and I wonder if it is going to pay its share of the next one when it gets approved? I don't see any reference in the Lansdowne accounts for this so perhaps Providence is carrying them.

ps200306 and Ireland have something in common today. They are both losers. He still does not understand.

The gas has been converted to barrels of oil so the oil in Barryroe is he equivalent oil to the gas. So how does 11.25% of gas equivalent oil suddenly become 2.5%?

If a barrel of oil costs say $50 and there are 311m barrels that equates to $15.5billion. 34.5m barrels of gas equivalent equates to $1.75billion. So the value of the gas in Barryroe is $1.75billion.

Based on the current market price of $1.9 for 70 cubic feet of gas actually equates to $5.2billion. Obviously small potatoes in ps200406's book.

Furthermore, Ireland has a major problem with gas because it is currently calculated for them in English pounds whereas they actually use Euros to pay for it. Given my trading in euros and pounds sterling I can tell you that the Euro has traded in the band 71.5p to 93p over the last years since Brexit was started. But with Germany now entering recession and the UK economy booming you can be sure that the Euro is going to suffer which means imported gas to Ireland will become very expensive as now with Kinsale defunct the extra requirements over and above that supplied by Corrib will come via the interconnectors from Moffat in Scotland.

And ps200306 thinks the gas in Barryroe is inconsequential. Brain dead, I am afraid especially as the costs of developing will drop like a stone given that the infrastructure to develop it is already there and the actual depth of the field is just over 1,000m which is below the 4,000ft line.

He lives in fantasy land I am afraid and I am sure he will read this even though he says he will not. That is an old trick.

Half time in the rugby and poor Ireland are getting a bit of a drubbing.

But before you go ps200306 I would not like you to go without showing how limited your intelligence is.

You state "the stupidity of his idea to use existing wells (unsuitable for oil) to access Barryroe's potential which is 97.5% oil?" How did you work that out?

Now either you are about six years old or your maths is very poor. Probably the result of a ******ed childhood. And what is even worse, nobody else on here seems to be able to do simple maths either to pick you up.

So here are the facts:

Barryroe has been assessed at 311 million barrels (49.4×106 m3) barrels of oil, and 207 billion cubic feet of gas.
207 billion cubic feet of gas equates to 35 million barrels of oil.
So how did you work out that 36m barrels of oil was only 2.5% of 311m barrels? When I went to school that equated to 11.25% so how did you end up with 2.5%?

Wrong school or bad education or don't they do maths classes now in prison?

In the meantime, goodbye and have a nice day.

I am delighted I am getting under your skin. The more you whine and moan the more certain I am winning. Given your comments it is I clear I really do have you for the pseud you really are. Keep it up. I love it.

As for Providence signing deals, how many did O'Reilly sign and not carry through on. He wanted himself and Daddy to be the JR Ewings of Ireland and failed miserably on both counts. And it took him, for example, over two years to even mention the Transocean c**kup on the original Barryroe drill.

Instead of running around like a heedless chicken wasting about $200m in futile searches he should have and could have developed Barryroe in all those years unless he and his henchmen have been telling us a load of porkies over the years.

Now at least with a new gang they have nothing to lose so if Barryroe is a dead duck and the only gas is that which comes out of ps200306's rear end I expect them to come clean in the not too distant future.

You would not make those comments unless you

In fact, back in 2013, Daddy owned about 15.5% of the company having sold down from his previous 45%.

Based on the mooted price of €1.1b, th at would have given daddy about €160m which would have cleared his debts when combined with his Irish estates and art collection.

In fact, when AIB went after him, Mammy O'Reilly, very wealthy in her own right, offered to pay off AIB on the basis of some much in the pound but AIB refused to deal so Daddy went into bankruptcy.

Oh how the mighty have fallen. First daddy, then Gavin and now Tony Jr.

To finish,

So the supposed Indian deal that actually O'Reilly referred to happened in 2013 and according to what we know the Indians then went off and did something with a different company.

Shame. We would have taken anybody.

Sorry LONGWAIT,

That article dates back to 2014 which is in the dim and distant past when Daddy owned about 45% of the company.

He was forced by AIB to liquidate his holding to pay down some of his debt and then he went into liquidation choosing the Bahamas where he had moved with the lovely Chrissie to avail of their one year bankruptcy period. If he had stayed in Ireland, he would have been bankrupt for 12 years which was reduced to 3 years and has again been reduced to bring it into line with Northern Ireland.

However, a UK judge has precluded him from coming out of hs Bahama's bankruptcy on the basis that he now lives in France and the US does not recognise the Bahamas one and he has still the ongoing problems with his nurse who has been fighting him in court.

Exactly Olderandwiser,

Looking back on old news it would seem that APEC got there ahead of Petronas. The following article from ShelltoSea who were the bellwether for all the cranks opposing Corrib had this article from 2013 which puts a bit more meat on the issue.

You will note from this article that back then in 2013 "Tony O'Reilly owns Providence Resources. Lost it all when he went bankrupt and still owes buckets to his nurse so a deal then would have saved his bacon.

http://www.shelltosea.com/content/giant-petronas-eyes-%E2%82%AC600m-bid-providence-resources

PS200306,

If you people did some reading instead of putting your heads between your legs you might see the light instead of all you get is a nasty smell.

Here is a question. Why did Providence sign a deal with Kinsale Energy in December 2015 for three years on condition that Provicence drill a well in OPL 1. Due to its lack of finance caused by the Druid/iDrombeg fiasco the deal lapsed because Providence ran out of money. And what was the deal to look for given that Kinsale Energy is a gas company and the deal would have been split 60/40 in favour of Providence?

I will tell you; gas of course.

Do you think Kinsale were looking for oil with this agreement or were they looking for more gas? If oil, what was Kinsale going to do with it as they had no direct facilities for oil. But they still have the infrastructure to handle gas and survive because, now, when they exhaust the remaining gas next year, they will spend a fortune decommissioning their gas kit as approved by DCCAE, fold, or go back to Malaysia where Petronas has been sucking the Irish population of cash from the gas for or just die.

And if Petronas, one of the biggest oil and gas companies in the world, made a bid for Providence it would not be the first time such a deal was mooted. In 2013 we read that "Giant Malaysian oil firm Petronas is thought to be mulling over a bid for €600m Providence Resources". Would we accept that? You bet we would. And they could buy it with their small change given that their nett income was US$26.5 billion (2018).

I reckon a deal in 2013 would not have happened because they did not like O'Reilly and he was probably asking too much but I am sure the new management are more realistic that our "beloved" narcissistic ex-CEO.

So, do some decent research and you might find a bit of enlightenment rather than scratching your rear ends and answer the question why did Providence sign a deal in 2015 to be completed by December 2018 to drill a well on OPL 1, the license area next to Barryroe, which contains the Kinsale gas field? Gas or Oil or both?

FF and FG together cannot form a government.

Between them they have 73 seats (35 + 38) and they need 80 just to have a government but you need a few more than 80 "just in case". Add in the 12 from the Greens and you have a chance with 85 because even if a Green or two disagrees with you there is the chance some of those old FF "dogs" will help you out; some like the Healy-Rae "intellectuals" from Kerry who are actually Fine Fail in everything but name but left the party some years ago when daddy Healy-Rae fell out when Fine Fail refused to endorse him to run for FF in Kerry, so he ran as an independent and won in spite of them.

That is why the "gas" in Barryroe is a major political play because Seven Heads is already a gas play even though defunct as there is no way the Greens can stop an old gas development from being resurrected and if by chance it brings up oil as well, so be it.

Ireland is a country of political factions and dynasties and there is one law for those who live in Dublin and large Cities such as Cork and another for the rest of the "gombeen" men who are little kings in their own backyards.

ps200306,

Have you been on the sauce today? Your post makes absolutely no sense.

Have you compared the position of the site survey they want to carry out against the proposed list defined by APEC and the two carried out by O'Reilly last September which cost $500k from the accounts? All of those were from the periphery where the new one, proposed by McCoss I suspect, is right in the middle.

And I would like to point out to JH77 who claims a Barryroe gas field would be too small to be commercial the following from the original development of Seven Heads.

"Classified as an exploration well, this is scheduled to test a sand formation which produces gas at Kinsale and which Mr Griffith said has the potential to contain reserves of about 160 billion cubic feet of gas. In the current climate, anything above 60 billion is economic, he said. Any discovery here could be developed using the facilities on the Kinsale field. "

And why cannot Providence just drill the current Seven Heads well heads, of which there are 6, on Barryroe down below the 4,000 ft level? The only reason KEL cannot do that is because they are limited to the top 4,000 feet whereas Barryroe has the rights below that. In fact, it is probably because Seven Heads is exhausted that they can do that because they could never do that if Seven Heads was still producing gas.

In fact, in 2004, the level of gas in Seven Heads was a total disappointment producing only the equivalent of 7,000 barrels of oil a day whereas the original estimate was for far higher than that. But they knew then that there was oil lower down but they were not entitled to drill for it because it was not part of the license.

And why have the gas? Because it looks like the new government in this God forsaken country could end up with a pack of Greens holding the balance of power and you can be sure they will not be in love with oil but they cannot gainsay gas. Politics is everything here now because this country is in such a mess. So something is better than nothing.

If you had any credibility JH77 you lost it with your outlandish statement of Monday that "It is encouraging that Tim Torrington has put a decent slug of his own money behind this and has also taken on board the options".

How many shares did he buy and at what price? If you think he paid a "decent slug of his own money" you must be on the dole to think that he spent a "decent slug of money".

Get real and when there is a move on the development of the gas in Barryroe I am going to take it and stick straight up your jacksie where it belongs.

From the internet, I can point out numerous smaller gas fields that have been developed from scratch whereas the Barryroe one is nearly a free carry as the infrastructure is already in place and most of it has to remain in place so not to upset those nice EU environmental directives which says you cannot upset the prawns.

So the new team at Providence are telling us "porkies" according to you when they say " proposed appraisal programme is expectedto confirm thepresence of either a large oil field with a gas cap or a large gas field surrounded by an oil rim."

And who are the yobos who are wasting their time when it says "severaladditional companiesnot included within the initial processhave expressed interest in the gas potential andhave been invited into the data room."?

I know you cannot read too well as you obviously missed these points in the RNS but give us your reasons why these statements are incorrect?

Furthermore, there is nothing in the RNS that says the dataroom process will take six months. It says "within" six months. That could be tomorrow but not later than six months.

Can't you people read? Surely that is part of your training on the dole.

Of course they are going to drill down to find oil but if Seven Heads gas was directly above Barryroe where did its gas come from? Did it seep from below the 4,000 ft level where Barryroe starts? Possibly. KEL cannot drill down there but Barryroe can.

Providence are hardly quoting potentially 1 billion barrels of oil by drilling down the strata but the chances are they will also hit gas if Seven Heads defunct gas well is directly above it. Oil first but potentially gas as well. And what about the side track drill which is to test compartmentalisation? Can't see that being for gas either but might encounter it.

However, when they drilled Barryroe in the first place they were not looking for gas back in 2012. They had to go through the Seven Heads gas field to the 4,000 ft mark which is where Barryroe starts and found oil. But large amounts of gas just happened to be there which Petronas could not use Seven Heads gas field to get at because it was too deep. For example, the Seven Heads Gas Field lies directly on top of the Barryroe oil. So how did the gas get there? If KEL could drill lower in Seven Heads I am sure they would have had plenty of gas but now Seven Heads is exhausted. But they had only license to drill down to 4,000 feet as below that belongs to Barryroe - very strange. Here is the definition.

"According to Providence, the new license has been renamed Barryroe to avoid confusion with the Seven Heads gas field, which is partly situated above the deeper oil accumulations. Part of the Barryroe acreage lies beneath the Seven Heads gas field, with the boundary between the two concessions lying at 4,000 ft (1,250 m) subsea."

So where did the upper gas come from? Surely lower down where the Barryroe oil also exists. And if the Seven Heads pipe network is in place why would Barryroe not use it if after the drilling they find more gas further down?