Member Info for Manyana

The Healy-Rae gang are no worse than the Sinn Fein murderers of thousands of people ever since the foundation of the party in 1905. "The organisation which would become the political arm of the Irish Republican Army was founded as a nationalist pressure group on November 28th, 1905". And after more than 3,000 deaths since 1968 they have a lot of blood on their hands which is small potatoes compared to the Healy-Rae tribe.

And ask yourself, why did Jackie get first preferences in the election and Michael get in on the 5th? Do you not think that the attitude of the Healy-Rae is not very much the attitude of most of the country people of Ireland? We all know the difference between Jackeens and Culcies and never the twain shall meet.

The Healy-Rae message is simple. Stop treating Irish country people as if they lived in Dublin. Climate change might be OK up there but country people cannot live on electricity alone so forget your wind farms and your heat exchange units and your electric cars and if you think country people can do without cars, think again.

For example, when will you ever see any number of electric car chargers in places such as The Ring of Kerry or how about on Valentia Island. And what if you got caught short in Dun An Oir; where are you going to get the electricity? How do you stop 80mph gusts from pulling down the electric cables as they are never going to put them underground so in the event of power outage what is the fallback? It would cost billions to develop an integrated safe electrical system around Ireland. Ireland cannot develop a decent internet system never mind a carbon neutral system.

As for renewables, Michael Fitzmaurice, a turf-cutting farmer and independent politician was elected in Galway-Roscommon seat at the weekend to the Dáil, Ireland’s parliament, and he put it this way: “Climate change is an issue – I wouldn’t say serious.” so I am sure he is not going to give up turf to please Brid Smith, especially as an independent he could form part of the government.

So get real. There is absolute b/s about Ireland and global warming. As Rae says, when India, China, America and Africa do something about it and cut emissions, Ireland can consider it but not until then.

So global warming is not going to figure too highly on any Irish government that comes in. They will have enough on housing and health to keep them busy and they always dance to the smaller groups who join them on the back of local promises of financial support of one sort or another.

Of course I am Irish. How did you presume I was not from what I have said?

Perhaps I am from Mars. My family have been Fine Gael supporters all my life ever since as a child I listened to all the discussions about the 1948 election which De Valera tried to Gerrymander, was expected to win, but was caught short by Fine Gael in a hung parliament. It didn't stop Fine Fail getting back into power at a t the next election and holding on to power for years, not to any great benefit of the country as it led to mass emigration.

Perhaps it was my suggestion that Irish citizens, living abroad, should be eligible to vote in Irish elections. Well, they can vote for the president and they can vote for the seanad (the senate) if, for example, they are graduates of NUI National University of Ireland) where they can vote for university candidates of which there are normally three.

So why stop there?

120,000 Irish citizens, living in Ireland, have been created since 2011. You can presume that at least another 130,000 have increased that given that their children are now also citizens giving a total of say 250,000. All of those have been eligible to vote in the last election. In a small country like Ireland that has a major impact on any election especially since many of those are after the "housing" and "health" message of Sinn Fein.

How do you counter than in a country with PR where second preference votes are probably as important as firsts and there is such a small overall electorate? Otherwise, you end up, as in this case, major votes for fringe parties.

There is one option which people have ignored and that is, Fine Fail, Fine Gael and a number of the Independents. Most Independents are ex-Fine Fail and so you have Fine Fail 38, Fine Gael 35 + any permutation of 7 of the 21 Independents making up to 80. After all, Independents supported Fine Fail and Fine Gael in the last election with two of them getting ministerial seats.

Election analyst, Dr Adrian Kavanagh of Maynooth University, said he has identified 10 Independent candidates who could potentially support Fianna Fáil in a future government." That would be more than enough to secure a government.

The two brothers from Kerry, the Healy-Rae pair, for example, come from a long line of Fine Fail dynasty. The reason why they are "Independent" is because Fine Fail would not let their father contest a seat in Kerry as a Fine Fail candidate but he won in spite of them. But they still support Fine Fail in government. Jackie gave confidence and supply support to Fianna-Fáil-led governments of 1997–2002 and 2007–11 in return for pork barrel funding for South Kerry. So you can add those two to the Fine Fail/Fine Gael combine.

And the Healy-Rae pair are major advocates of the idea that Climate Change does not exist and is only a means to make money by vested interests so you can be sure they will be opposing any Brid Smith rubbish. Their point is that "that Ireland is being forced to make these radical changes as a small country while others such as China and India are doing little." And that any talk of going "Green " is impossible in places like Kerry and the Irish countryside.

So enough independents are there with Fine Fail backgrounds to back a Fine Fail, Fine Gael government or a "confidence and supply" support as was the case in the last Fine Gael/Fine Fail government but this time it will be led by Fine Fail rather than Fine Gael with Martin as "the boss".

For those who obviously haven't a clue as to what happens next here is the Irish Times podcast from today which explains it.

I have a subscription to the Irish Times so I can get it but I hope others can hear it too. It is worth a listen if only to clear your minds of what is going on.

https://soundcloud.com/irishtimes-politics/election-daily-so-long

You will note it suspects the delay to form a government could go on so long that Veradkar, who is the only one who can do it, could call for a new election in about six months time. In the meantime, he and his ministers all stay in place.

Mary Lou can try and form a government but under normal protocol that would normally apply to the largest party but, I presume, because Fine Fail has the "speaker" who is automatically elected Fine Fail and SF are neck and neck with 37 voting TDs.

All ministers stay in place until a new government is elected. " in the event of a hung Parliament, an incumbent Prime Minister (and government) has a right to remain in office". So nothing changes until there is a new government.

Why are all of you here when you are so pessimistic? Surely if you are right the value of Providence shares is worthless so why don't you sell up now before you are reduced, in your minds, to zero?

Sinn Fein are interested in only one thing, a united Ireland. Worrying about oil and gas is furthest from their minds and since there is no big issue with that in Northern Ireland where they have a strong holding why would they drag that into the south? And given their spending costs you can be sure they will be interested in anything that can reduce that and remember in a united Ireland where currently Northern Ireland has no embargo on oil exploration when did they ever make that an issue?

I suggest you check the power stations in Northern Ireland and check what the biggest are using to power them. I can tell you; its coal and oil so in a united Ireland are they going to close all of them down because Brid Smith wants to do that in the South?

So I hope to hear that you have all sold up as I would hate for you, with your current attitudes, to be totally destitute when your shares are no more and Barryroe is mothballed.

Get out now before your worst fears come to pass.

Money message cannot be removed without a referendum as it is part of the Irish constitution.

With so many "lefties" elected irrespective of the government the chances of Brid Smith getting a member's bill into the agenda never mind getting it to a later stage is probably less possible now after she got defeated on the back of the money message.

Also, SF did not say in their manifesto anything about banning current licenses but it did say "fracking" would be banned. It said "a total ban on fracking across the island and the importation of fracked gas, as well as State divestment from fossil fuel projects and a ban on new exploration licences."

Under those terms Barryroe would still be possible and , in fact, probable.

Sinn Fein won because they made their manifesto promises simple: Housing, Health, Tax, Older People, Childcare. Offering carrots in all these sections made them very attractive. And you will note, although it is important to them, they did not go banging the drum too loud on a united Ireland.

They also ran single candidates in many constituencies so as not to split the vote, hence the large surpluses which allowed the likes of other "lefties" such as Brid Smith to get elected.

The other two parties, Fine Fail and Fine Gael were offering similar goodies in each of those sectors but nobody believed them because they have had years to implement them but have done little. No good offering "gifts" when you had plenty of time to deliver them but failed.

No wonder the people voted for "change" from the old enemies who promised but never delivered.

Health and Housing are the two main issues but when you have had a population increase of some 500,000 since the election of Enda Kenny and Fine Gael in 2011 is it any wonder that there is pressure on housing and health.

Sinn Fein think they can solve it but we will wait and see. Another "live horse, eat grass" or Marie-Antoinette's famous statement "So the people have no bread? Let them eat cake instead"). Or Sinn Fein's "We will fix it".

Doing a quick shufti through the results yet to come in, it is actually possible that Fine Fail could yet end up the biggest party. I estimate they could get another 8 or 9 seats based on transfers which would mean they had 39 or 39 seats to Sinn Fein's 37.

That would be a turn up for the books as the largest party has the option to try and form a government first.

Waterford Sinn Fein elected member, finished a speech last night with the slogan "Up The RA" (Up the IRA) watch at:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sinn-f%C3%A9in-s-david-cullinane-defends-shouting-up-the-ra-after-election-1.4168791

I was also listening to Mary Lou McDonald on the RTE 6.00pm news spouting that she expects to be the next Taoiseach at the head of a ragbag of left wingers including Labour, Solidarity -SPBP (Brid Smith),Greens,Social Democrats,Independents For Change and any other leftie they can get hold of. That lot would be worse that Robin Hood and his merry men and witgh the same aim - rob the rich and give it to all those poor creatures who have come to Ireland from God knows where.

Good luck to her, I say.

Interesting days ahead.

Looks like SF have topped out at 37 seats. One reason they did so well is that they only ran on candidate in most constituencies with the exception of Louth where they are very strong around Dundalk with the retirement of Gerry Adams and in Donegal where they also won two seats.

Can't see either FF or FG getting 43 seats to reach the magical 80 so it is definitely a hung parliament probably short 10 seats.

Get rid of both Veradkar and Martin, I say. Both were disasters.

Up to now I regarded Sinn Fein as a hindrance but now they have to be taken seriously. Luckily, the maximum number of seats they can get is 42 because that is the number of candidates they ran. They must be kicking themselves given the state of play.

However, It is of interest to compare Sinn Fein's manifestos from the December 12th election in Britain snd Northern Ireland and its manifesto for the current Republic election.

In the 12th December manifesto it states:

"Moratorium on the exploration and extraction of fossil fuels, and a ban on fracking."

In the Republic election it says

"a total ban on fracking across the island and the importation of fracked gas, as well as State divestment from fossil fuel projects and a ban on new exploration licences."

Make of that what you will but shades of Brid Smith come to mind.

You are right patrickd369. ireland is now a total mess.

Current estimate is that no two parties combined will get the necessary 80 votes which means no two parties can form a government. That means a grand coalition of some sorts will come in to place or we are heading for another general election in the not too distant future - perhaps three months.

I have always regarded Michael Martin as a total "wet" and this election proves it. He should be replaced as leader of Fine Fail as quickly as possible when you consider Sinn Fein has walked all over him and his party. And as for Veradker, it was he who called this election even though, technically, there was no need of one for another two years if Fine Fail and Fine Gael could have got their act together.

And since Ireland is now full of "foreigners" who have become citizens and being resident are entitled to vote surely the time has come for all Irish citizens living outside of Ireland should now have the right to vote in Irish elections just as they have the right to vote in presidential elections. I believe many "blowins" to Ireland voted for Sinn Fein because they have been promising to spend billions on building houses which is a total farce. Venezuela (or is it Cubas) here we come with a socialist government.

Still a long way to go but the showing of Sinn Fein in leading nearly every constituency with excessive votes over the quota means something rotten exists in Irish politics.

When you consider that Sinn Fein has 34 representatives elected in Northern Ireland (27 in MLA, 7 Elected Westminster) and you combine them with the new brigade in the Republic you can see, if they combined, they could rule a united Ireland for as long as the other two have been squabbling in the South.

United Ireland referendum within two years if Sinn Fein get into power in a shared executive.

Brid Smith elected second behind Sinn Fein.

Sinn Fein steaming ahead. At this rate could ho;d the balance of power.

Neither Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin or Fine Gael in any combination cannot solve the Irish problem which is housing.

Check out the following where it points out that Ireland's population has grown from 2,978,248 in 1971 to 4,761,865 in 2016 and it is estimated there are currently 4,937,786 today which means the population is growing at a rate of approximately 100,000 per year. Now, how many houses should have been built to cater for that over the years?

With that sort of growth, is it any wonder there is a shortage of housing and if anybody expects any political combination to built the level of housing needed over the next years they are in for a shock. And, if the trend continues, you can expect the population to increase to perhaps as much as 5.5m over the life time of the next government.

https://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/population/2017/Chapter_1_Population_change_and_historical_perspective.pdf

Riddle me the solution to that if you can and God Help the people of Ireland if they think they can do all that on the back of renewable energy.

They are a socialist party and will want to nationalise everything. When you add in the Greens and the People before Profit you can expect Brid Smith's bill to be back on the agenda so, hopefully, Providence, with the only viable oil and gas option can get in first and get its site survey approved.

I note from the site survey requested by Linn and I expect appraised by McCoss that it sits right in the middle of a number of finds and looks like they think they have found the "sweet spot" that covers a number of the discoveries. I wonder who is going to pay for it now Providence has no money.

Further to my previous statement, it looks like Smith will make it. Here is the current state of affairs.

Dublin South Central:
37 pc of boxes tallied for Dublin South Central.
Ardagh and Byrne still neck and neck.
Aengus O’Snodaigh (SF) - 51 pc (8536)
Catherine Ardagh (FF) - 7pc (1229)
Catherine Byrne (FG) - 7pc (1204)
Joan Collins (I4C) - 6pc (1020)
Patrick Costello (GP) -5 pc (858)
Tara Deacy ( SD) - 2 pc (360)
Robert Foley (Ind) - 0 pc (40)
Serbia Irvine(NP) 1pc (134)
Alan Kerrigan (IND) - 0pc (45)
Rebecca Moynihan(LAB) -3pc (453)
Richard Murray (ind) - 1pc (112)
Seán O’Leary(ind) - 0 (11pc)
Bríd Smith (S-PBP) 14pc (2318)

Brid Smith is in second place with 14pc

That should be the 4th seat as there are only 4 seats in Dublin South Central and not 5.

She sits in Dublin South Central. In the last election she got in by 35 votes.

Sinn Fein, it seems, would have won two seats here if it had run two candidates so the chances are the Sinn Fein candidate,who is expect to lead which means her second preferences will go to either the Greens or Smith. Hopefully she will not get enough to fill the fifth seat but that is the way Irish election goes.

So the best we can hope for is 1 Sinn Fein, 1 FF, 1 FG and 1 Green which means no Smith but Green is bad enough.

Here is the issue with the Irish election.

Fine Gael and Fine Fail were set up post 1922 when Ireland was partitioned and never the twain should meet even today. In 1968 you had the unrest in Northern Ireland which led to all that violence but was "settled" with the Anglo-Irish agreement in 1985. That is exactly 24 years ago.

Now look at the exit poll from yesterday and you will see that 18-24 years old(s) have voted 31.8% Sinn Fein, 13.6% Fine Fail and 15.5% Fine Gael. If that vote had been taken back in 1985 you would estimate that 18-24 year old(s) would have given no more than about 3% to Sinn Fein if even that. Oh, how the times have changed.

This is why the current election is a farce. Sinn Fein hasn't changed. After all, its name means "We ourselves" or "~Us alone" which translates into "f/off Britain from Northern Ireland and let us have a united country". Nothing more noting less and if they get into government that will be the price they demand which will probably bankrupt the country.

What sort of post would you like?

Here is a post. Sinn Fein will win enough seats to form a disastrous government and we will have a referendum on a united Ireland within two years. To offset this the alternative is a Fine Gael/Fine Fail coalition and while Fine Gael say they will go into government with Fine Fail, Fine Fail say they won't go into government with Fine Fail.

Is that enough for you. My prediction is that we could have another election within three months as nothing will be settled by then. May is a very nice month to have an election on a Thursday.

Let us see what the whole thing looks like tomorrow evening when the dust should be "nearly" settled.