Member Info for Manyana

Damned If they do and damned if they don't.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ff-and-fg-concede-many-of-green-party-s-key-demands-1.4241273

You have two ways to vote at an EGM or AGM, by proxy or by your presence and even a holder of one vote is entitled to attend.

And if you had just selective people there decisions could be made which were not in the interest of all the shareholders.

So there are very strict rules on running AGMs and EGMs. I see there is talk of allowing AGMs to be delayed beyond their legal limits of six months after period end but they will still have to be held sometime.

The same rules do not apply to an EGM as their is no legal time limit so we might read tomorrow that the EGM on 5th May has been deferred.

I wonder if the EGM will go ahead next Tuesday at "11.00 a.m. on 5 May 2020"?

Until that is held and voted on the new shares issued to the institutions in the latest fund raise do not formally exist.

Hopefully we will get some idea of the potential deal with SpotOn either as a "goer" or a "dead duck".

Perhaps the price increase is due to the clarity in the response to the Green Party's 17 points and on the basis that Ryan did not disagree with them. To that extent the response to 3 is particularly relevant to Providence where it says:

"Both of our parties are committed to a pathway to phase out all fossil fuel exploration licenses. As you know the outgoing Government already banned fracking onshore and introduced a moratorium on the issuing of new exploration licences for offshore oil exploration. We are open to introducing a similar policy on offshore gas exploration."

For once, it clearly states that oil and gas exploration applies to "new licenses". In the past, the issue about cancelling licenses has always been fudged with basically the same sentiment but without the "new" addition.

It will be interesting to know if the Greens accept this interpretation as it was classed as a "show stopper" in the past where Smith certainly implied it applied to all licenses, old and new.

You are too kind to Providence. Tony O'Reilly Jnr. f***ed it up good and proper since 2012 when they announced the oil find in Barryroe. He sold Singleton because that was a disaster after they spent millions drilling a dud and he raised millions telling us he was going to use it to develop Barryroe then went off spending millions on wild goose chases and on other things when he should have been getting on with Barryroe.

The deal between Providence and San Leon was made in 2011 before they drilled Barryroe and the agreement was that San Leon would not pay any further costs wnen it exchanged its 30% for the NPI 4.5% profit to Providence. See

https://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201205101001230645D

Now to be clear, I think Oisin Fanning is as big an a'hole as Tony O'Reilly and they are both such egotists and narcissists that they could never have worked together. And as for Fanning and his Nigerian deal which relates to the Eroton/Nigerian Government deal, the chances are that it will fail as the Nigerian Government owe billions in oil payments which given the current oil price could easily fall on its face as the Nigerian economy depends on oil in just the same way other OPEC countries do.

Eroton actually has good potential but it has to sell its oil through the Nigerian government who, in the past, has failed on a number of occasions to fail to cough up. If this happens again San Leon will not get a penny as it is dependent on Eroton making a profit. Check out Eroton at

https://www.erotonep.com

My only interest was that as a long time (loss) investor, who had written off his interest in San Leon but had kept the share as they were not worth selling I was pleased that we are finally getting the clippings of tin with the announcement of the dividend. Something is better than nothing. But I won't be holding my breath for any more in the short or long term.

San Leon have always had a free carry on Barryroe. They swapped their equity on the grounds that they would not have to pay for drilling or any other costs, even production costs, and they only get paid when it makes profits. That is why it is a Nett 4.5% interest holder.

In the deal with APEC, it was agreed that Providence would be responsible for the San Leon interest.

You have to remember that the original shareholding in Barryroe was Providence 50%, San Leon 30% and Lansdowne 20%. They traded their 30% to Providence for the 4.5% deal. Might never be worth a cent if Barryroe is not developed.

The third party in the Barryroe project, San Leon, is proposing to pay a 6p dividend to shareholders at the end of May which shows that they are now in a good financial position.

Like probably a few others, I have Providence, Lansdowne and San Leon shares (plus others) as a potential investment in Barryroe. It is clear, though, that San Leon is able to exist on its own without an input from Barryroe where it has a nett 4.5% interest.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SLE/proposed-special-dividend-2c1f26kvswbuyki.html

Hopefully many more dividends to come.

And just in case you miss it in that article, the Eamon Ryan mentioned is the same gobsh**e who, as leader of the Green Party, last week presented the seventeen point document as a deal maker with Fine Fail and Fine Gael to form a government. With one of its demands stating that all gas and oil exploration be stopped.

And you should also realise that he previously served as Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources from 2007 to 2011. And just in case you do not realise it but that department is the one we depend on for permissions to progress Barryroe's surveys and other permissions, namely https://www.dccae.gov.ie

Check Ryan out at:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eamon_Ryan

So if the government ever got involved with Barryroe it would never get developed.

The reason why the government should not get involved with Barryroe is because of the total mess they have made in utilities over the years by investing and then selling them off for a song.

Read the following article and you will know why the last thing you would want is the Irish government and its semi-state Bord Gais involved in Barryroe. As the saying goes "they could not run a p*** up in a brewery".

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/why-was-bord-gais-sold-for-so-little-30158193.html

You might not know it but at one time Whitegate was a semi-state property and the gas facility which supplied the country through Kinsale was also sold off

Ryan today backtracked and said the document they produced was a "wish list" for negotiation and not carved in stone. If the list was a prerequisite for entry into a government the other two parties would never have agreed with it as they would not want their hands tied to something which would probably bankrupt the country if it were ever implemented.

As for the LNG terminal on the Shannon estuary that was as a link to American fracking. Now with probably the demise of fracking in the States. With a cost of $50 to $70 a barrel to produce fracking it is clear with the reduction in oil what effect this has had on that industry so that many are going bust and others are closing down.

It is worth reading the following regarding the status of the LNG plant that has been held up for years and whether or not it will ever be built. It would make more sense to locate it in Cork as you have too many "greens" out in the west of Ireland who will do anything to prevent it being built and Cork is already the gas and oil hub of Ireland.

https://www.thejournal.ie/shannon-lng-terminal-explained-4878185-Nov2019/

It is interesting to note Leo Veradker's comment that he ".... said that Ireland needs energy security in future, and that the proposed LNG terminal “could be part of the answer to that”.

Surely the other part to that is the development of Barryroe.

Longwait,

50/50 based on APEC deal but other options possible - even takeover.

Sorry. Point 3.
"3. An end to exploration licences for offshore gas exploration."

Green party's preconditions to create government.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/green-party-lays-out-17-demands-for-entering-coalition-negotiations-1.4236038
Note point 2.

You have to differentiate between costs and losses. Losses are monies borrowed from third parties that have to be paid back. Providence has none of those.

However, all the costs Providence has spent to date can be recouped from profits from the oil and gas before the government gets a penny tax.

As such, all the costs Providence has spent to date are actually a major asset to the company and that is why if the Irish government were to try and stop them developing Barryroe the Government would have to repay those costs at least because Providence is entitled to them out of revenue. That is why the "money message" issue stopped the Brid Smith bill last year.

If they cannot generate the revenue because the government brought in a law they would have legal right to claim the money from the government.

Tullow, on the other hand borrowed nearly $3billion from financial institutions and, I think, they still owe about $2.8billion to third parties whereas Providence owes nothing to third parties.

So these are investments and not "losses" and as such they are actually a major asset as they can all be recouped when Providence recovers its costs for developing the fields and are offset against taxes when the oil or gas starts to flow.

So whoever buys into Barryroe gets the benefit of half the costs to date which is worth having.

Look at Corrib. Initially reckoned to cost about $900m to develop but ended up costing $3.5billion so the owners can sell gas without tax until those costs are paid. That is why a pension fund bought the Shell interest in the gas field.

Two things in Providence's favour.

First of all, Providence has no debt so when you consider Providence or Tullow which would you prefer to be invested in? My preference would be Providence because Tullow is up to its ears in debt and it will take years for it to ever make a profit as it has to pay down that huge debt and with current oil price that might never happen.

Second, the cost of the shutdown because of coronavirus is going to be huge on a country like Ireland if it lasts for any great length of time so anything that can benefit the national economy at minimal cost with huge payouts is going to be an advantage. So rather than paying out billions for oil and gas it makes total sense for Ireland to develop its own and Barryroe is the prime potential to do that.

To show how far Ireland are behind the "green" curve even after the caterwauling of Brid Smith et al. there is an interesting article in yesterday's Irish times which says a decision will be taken next month as to whether turf will be banned from being used in power stations and they will move to wood instead. Surely that is a half way stage to using gas or oil. Wood is not much better than coal or peat in the greater "green" good. Here is the article which says 200 Bord-Na-Mona employees many never work again after coronavirus if peat is banned.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/over-200-bord-na-m%C3%B3na-workers-fear-permanent-loss-of-jobs-1.4234416

Why do people presume it has to be a company that is needed to pay for the money to develop Barryroe?

Historically, one man, Tony O'Reilly Snr. thought he could do it on his own and probably would have if he hadn't spent all his money trying to keep Waterford Wedgewood alive. He spent over €1billion on that which would have easily paid for Barryroe.

The only benefit of a company is limited liability. There are thousands of individuals out there with billions who can easily finance Barryroe and even if it failed still take the hit. After all, Bill Gates is/was reckoned to be worth over $100 billion.

After all, Plunkett et al. are said to be the "founders" of T5. Where are they getting their money from? And where is Heavey with his billion to invest?

And if Linn used SpotOn to raise the capital that will keep us in business for the next year and it is technically "A con", all I can say is "Well done", especially as it is the institutions who are funding it and not us shareholders and he has kept the dilution down to a minimum by using warrants instead of "all shares" which is a very good strategic move.

Talk of a "big" player being needed for Barryroe other than SpotOn Energy who is to say they are not a front for a big Norwegian element. For example, who knows a lot about gas development and production in Ireland other than Statoil (or Equinor as it is now known).

Statoil Exploration (Ireland) Limited is owed millions in tax revenues arising out of the overrunning of Corrib which are all reclaimable from revenues over the next how many years. It could easily use the current revenues from Corrib tied in with the tax savings on Corrib to develop Barryroe.

Equinor (Statoil as it was) is rated the 1th biggest oil company in the world. Is that a big enough "big brother" to make Barryroe a success and since it is very familiar with gas development in Ireland would make an excellent partner.

It looks like COSL gets everywhere. We Have to wait until Marchy gives us his views in his blog regarding the fund raising. Probably tomorrow.

One thing is for sure, if Providence were only telling a "good story" to raise the funds they have certainly succeeded in that regard. Obviously the fund raising was discussed with all the major shareholders since it all passed yesterday. There is no way the institutions could come to decisions that quickly. On that basis the EGM is a formality.

So what do the institutions know about SpotOn that we do not know? I cannot see them investing good money after bad if SpotOn is no more that SpotOff.

Phoebus, your consortium is doomed to fail as nobody will ever buy a Chinese meal again as the Chow Mein will possibly contain dog, cat, rat, bat sourced from the Wutan wet market.

Note: "So what kind of animals were being slaughtered and consumed, you ask? Well, the list of ‘meats’ available for sale at the Wuhan wet market include dogs, koalas, wolf cubs, snakes, Chinese porcupines, crocodiles, rats, and even reptiles like the giant salamander!" Not only were they selling those but they were also selling endangered pangolins.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin

The Chinese think that "pangolin scales" and "bear bile" will cure coronavirus, the Indians think it is "cows" milk", half of England probably think it is "Jeremy Corbin's p*ss". All failures, which is why half the world is dying. I wonder what the Irish think? Probably a relic of St. Patrick if only they could find one or perhaps a leprechaun at the end of a rainbow.

After all, the word Chow means, a dog of a sturdy Chinese breed with a broad muzzle, a tail curled over the back, a bluish-black tongue, and typically a dense thick coat."

Now get your teeth into that and whisper coronavirus.

I am very disappointed that Mexico has stopped brewing Corona beer as it is actually one of my favourites. Now when anybody thinks of "Corona" which means "crown" they instinctively think of coronavirus.

Interesting comment re COSL even in the light of coronavirus.

"Separately, China Oilfield Services Ltd (2883.HK), or COSL, which is majority owned by CNOOC, said it planned an increase of more than 50% in 2020 capital expenditure versus the previous year, to 4.8 billion yuan."

Have our "sherlock holmes" of this site checked out the address of SpotOn Energy Ltd in Norway?

Who is the major tenant/owner at that address? No other than our good friends COSL, that's who.

So perhaps COSL are going it alone this time without the baggage of APEC. Who knows?