Member Info for Manyana

Don't be pessimistic.

Irish politicians want only one thing - to get reelected at the next general election.

Whatever promises Fine Fail and Fine Gael make to the Greens they have still to get them through the Irish parliament and for that they need a majority. The chances are they will not get the votes as a number of Fine Gael and Fine Fail will probably vote against them and certainly the farming TDs will never agree to the 7% deal.

As for Barryroe being the only gas and oil play in Ireland, have you forgotten Spanish Point? Being so close to Corrib it was put on the back-burner while all the shenanigans with Corrib took place. When Corrib dies, Spanish Point could be linked into the Corrib infrastructure without upsetting the NIMBYs in Mayo as they have lost that battle long ago.

ABOUT SPANISH POINT
The Spanish Point gas condensate discovery was made by Philips Petroleum in 1981 with the drilling of the 35/8-2 well. Oil and gas were discovered in Upper Jurassic Volgian sands with one flowing at c. 5 MMSCFD and c. 1000 BOPD (c. 1800 BOEPD).

In fact, it would make sense if the owners of Corrib were to buy into Spanish Point to extend the life of Corrib. As the biggest cost in Corrib was the piping to and the development of the Ballanaboy refinery where the gas ends up. Providence tried to farm-out a large chunk of Spanish Point back in 2015.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/91494/providence-resources-to-sell-spanish-point-stake/

So, more than one iron in that fire and there is a good deal of oil and gas in Spanish Point.

Brid Smith won't like this. Two tankers full of American fracked oil, due for the Netherlands have ended up in Bantry Bay where, I presume, they are going to unload their oil.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/us-oil-tankers-head-for-bantry-bay-as-storage-problem-grows-1.4253376

They might have another few in there before the oil glut created by coronavirus is over. At least, given the costs of hiring tankers, the Americans could give this to Ireland for nothing as the oil is now worth less than hiring the tankers.

Fracking in the US is now probably dead because oil sells for well less than it takes to frack it.

Why promise when you don't deliver. Tony O'Reilly was the past master of that.

According to the original deal, dated 6th April, SpotOn have until today to keep their promise for the £200k. So was that just a "plumb" to get the fund raising through or are they genuine?

One possibility is that they are waiting on the decision by DCCAE on the survey as that seemed to be one of the conditions relating to the deal. Since that has only cleared its final clarification and is now out for agreement by the public domain we are back in the judicial review waiting stage.

And since the agreement did say "SpotOn Energy will seek to agree to an appraisal work program for the Barryroe field and develop commercial terms to conclude a binding farm-out agreement". approval to carry out the survey is critical.

And they won't have to worry about the price because it still keeps beating its head off that 3p barrier.

Battle,

I think you are being too generous with Corrib. DCAAE say:

"?The Corrib Gas Field was discovered off the west coast of Ireland in 1996. Approximately 70% of the size of the Kinsale Head field, it has an estimated producing life of just over 15 years."
and

"Since the start of 2016, Corrib production accounts for approximately 36% of gas demand. It is expected that this will rise to approximately 60% in 2016/17 and approximately 50% in 2017/18. Thereafter production is expected to decline."

So according to DCCAE, Corrib will be dead by 2030 and it is already in decline supplying only about 50%-60% of Irish gas needs. All the rest comes from the UK.

Never a greater need for gas from Barryroe but unless SpotOn comes up with its £200k tomorrow we have to wonder are we in another wild goose chase.

I note Exola's request to carry out the site survey on the K area of Barryroe has only got to the final stages of Stage 2 with comments from anybody allowed up to the 14th May which was just three days ago.

If they get the all clear on that, the survey should be done in the not too distant future. The area to be surveyed is where they want to decide if Barryroe is a gas field with an oil ring or a major oil field with a gas component.

We now have to wait on a final decision from the Minister or his assistant via the DCCAE.

The good thing about SpotOn is that they have put up some money. Neither Sequa or APEC paid a penny for their interests. They promised much but never delivered.

Sequa used the Providence deal to try and raise $300m through a bond issue which never came off and APEC promised millions but never delivered. As the old saying goes "If it costs you nothing it is worthless".

So, as you say, it will be interesting to see if SpotOn delivers the remaining £200k, six weeks from the 6th of April. That means they have to pay up by next Monday 18th May. Hopefully they will live up to their promises unlike the previous two.

It is amazing how this share is being manipulated to keep it below 3p.

It seems to be a form of financial 'whack-a-mole' where every time it gets to 3p it gets "whacked" down.

Perhaps the AGM, when it is announced might just let the mole escape for once.

JH77

You can check out all the concessions at:

https://www.dccae.gov.ie/en-ie/natural-resources/topics/Oil-Gas-Exploration-Production/licensing/licences-and-maps/Pages/Licences-and-Maps.aspx

Click on Concession Map 31 March 2020 and it will bring up all the licenses.

I agree with you but I would add a rider which is that point 3 could refer to an "arrangement" with Petronas which would bind the whole thing together.

The deal you might be referring to was OPL/1 which was in Petronas territory.

"The company, through its subsidiary Exola, on Thursday entered into an exclusive option agreement with PSE Kinsale Energy Limited over the southern portion of Offshore Petroleum Lease 1 (OPL 1), offshore Ireland."

At one stage it was rumoured that Petronas was looking to buy Providence for $600m.

The other deal which did not come off was:

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/ireland-providence-strikes-another-deal-with-petronas/

The question is whether these deals fell through because of O'Reilly or Petronas. If it was O'Reilly, who had a habit of starting and not finishing, it might herald a new approach where Linn is far more rational and methodical in my opinion.

Interesting comments from Linn, none the less.

I note there has not been any discussion of the information given at the EGM and the impact it might have on the future of Barryroe. So here is a few I would like more clarity on. Here are a few:
1. We.. are investigating the potential for introducing Carbon Capture and Storage, linked to
Barryroe development.

2. Target low risk exploration prospects with scope for early tie-back into existing production
facilities to accelerate investments returns.

3. Actively evaluate M&A and asset swap opportunities to build value.

All very positive but what do you think they related to?

JH77

The warrants are given to the shareholders and the options were given to the management.

If you are talking about the options, the normal process is you do a buy and a sell on the same day getting the benefit of the margin. The options have a seven year life span "Options will lapse on the seventh anniversary of the date of grant, unless they lapse prior to that date
on foot of any other provisions of the 2020 Share Option Scheme." so you can imagine the killing the directors are going to get if say the share price goes to 53p and they exercise their options. they get 50p for every option the exercise which, when you consider the vast numbers they have it makes for a good incentive to get the share price as high as possible. A lot can happen in seven years.

Shareholders have one year to exercise the warrants at 3p and the money comes into the company and the warrants at 9p are exercisable within two years and also comes into the company. Since these require hard cash you can expect they will only be exercised if the share price is well in excess of either price within the time periods. Otherwise there is no point exercising them.

Nothing new there. See RNS.

Now let us see them make some money out of their options and we can coattail them.

Previous rights were issued at 45c and 17c and the ten year option scheme ended in 2019. That is why a new one was required.

I copied sections of the presentation and there are some very interesting innuendos in there regarding the potential of interfacing with the Kinsale infrastructure which obviously is under the lids at present.

For example:

"Fully developed, the Barryroe Field will become a production hub, and Providence envisages economically linking the Barryroe facilities with discovered resources and near field exploration opportunities off Ireland’s east (and south) coast(s)."

Make that of it what you will but looks like "A nod is as good as a wink to a blind horse".

They have promised us more at the AGM which has not been announced but has to be held before the end of June.

Fexit,

I think you will find that the redundancy payments were made out of the funding generated last September. That is why they have run out of capital this early.

I am pretty sure there will be a good price increase in the shares over the coming months given the very attractive share options scheme 2020 they have set up for themselves. Given that the shares are trading at about 2.5p and the exercise options of their shares is 3p any reasonable raise to say 13p even will bring the management very nice profits as they have allocated themselves millions of share options.

On the other hand, I will be more than happy as the old saying "rising tides lifts all ships" applies.

For those who listened to the EGM and heard the "bullsh" from Ian Lumley they might want to know he is the unpaid devil's advocate for An Taisce, the Irish watchdog, who caused the first judicial review of Barryroe's survey which I believe was the killer blow to the APEC/Providence deal.

As usual, he is all hot air and b/s. How he works for free is interesting and he is not above trying to line his own pocket by a bit of planning shenanigans. He tried to get permission to turn a part of a house in inner Dublin into three AirBnB flats but was turned down by his own organisation, An Taisce in 2019.

I presume he has the nominal one Providence share to allow him to mouth off at the EGM. It took him, according to Plunkett, 30 pages of premamble before he got around to a sentence with a question mark at the end of it? Hot air and garters.

Showed what a fool he really is.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/an-taisce-planning-chief-told-his-airbnb-style-plan-seriously-injures-internationally-significant-building-915573.html

Pot calling the kettle black perhaps?

AJED,

Go to http://www.providenceresources.com/

Read the second news item title "Placing Circular and Notice of the Extraordinary General Meeting"

It will tell you what you want to know about SpotOn and the Providence deal.

EGM tomorrow will be via Teleconference.

"In light of current and anticipated public health guidelines related to COVID-19, and the importance of the health and safety of shareholders, staff and others, shareholders are asked to comply with certain unprecedented but important recommendations for the Extraordinary General Meeting. Shareholders are requested not to attend the Extraordinary General Meeting in person and, instead, to avail of the proxy voting service and the teleconferencing facilities described in the Notice. Instructions as to how to use this service are explained in the Notice."

To listen to the EGM you can use the following audio link which is taken from the notice document.

https://globalmeet.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1301569&tp_key=8041b52774

I have checked the link out and it is setup and correct and ready to go. If you click on it now it will give you the details of company, date and time and includes the login requirements which are necessary to "attend".

Good luck.

When Sean O'Casey wrote “th’ whole world’s in a terrible state o’ chassis.” he could have been talking about the Green Party.

They are now so split that a number of them are threatening to become independents. If enough do it then there is no majority in the Dail.

The 7% is the issue. If Fine Gael and Fine Fail agree to it they will be for the high jump from the farming community and Ireland is predominantly a farming country. Remove about 50km times 20km rectangle around Dublin and the rest is predominantly farming. Decimate that and Ireland is a banana republic and Fine Gael and Fine Fail are for the birds.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/green-insider-says-coalition-debate-is-splitting-the-party-997292.html

Good comment Longwait. Why indeed?

Yes Panadin. I am aware it was Coveney who raised this rabbit but then he has a long history in agriculture whereas numb heads like Martin was the usual TD, a teacher, and we know they have always got their teaching jobs to fall back on if they get booted out of politics.

That idiot Martin was also moaning about the €6 billion Ireland spends each year on importing oil and gas and yet she is quite happy to say that Ireland should embargo all oil and gas exloration. Just shows how their brains are in their rear ends. Another brain-dead teacher on a cushy number in the Dail.

More clarity on the Coveney statement from later today.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/coveney-insists-he-has-not-ruled-out-a-7-emissions-target-1.4242908

Interesting comment there from Fine Gael ministers of state saying that "Meanwhile a meeting of Fine Gael ministers of state heard near-unanimous opposition to the seven per cent emissions reductions target."

Looks like a showstopper to me.

Unfortunately ranger4 I disagree with you when you invest in Tullow in preference to Providence and Lansdowne as I see from your profile you are looking at Tullow to hit 60p.

Tullow currently trade at 25.1p and in the last year traded at a high of 241p approx. 10:1. So for Tullow to get back to its year high it has to increase 10x.

Providence trades at 2.3p and its high in the last year was 11.925p which is roughly 6:1 which means Providence to get back to its year high has to increase 6x.

So which is the better option?

Not only that but Tullow has been scuppered by Coronavirus with the oil price trading at about $25 a barrel and with its monstrous debts of about $2.8billion it is going to take a long time to pay that back. You can deduct the sale of Uganda to Total if you like but that only means it has far less opportunity to pay down the debt in the future.

I like Tullow but I don't like its debt. Providence and Lansdowne have no debt.

A point on the Greens today is that they want the 7% carbon cut in stone but Fine Fail says no way if it is going to impact farmers. So, probably no deal now.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/republic-of-ireland/green-deputy-leader-criticises-shocking-coveney-comments-on-cutting-emissions-39173773.html

You will notice she has a twisted mouth. Does that mean she also has a twisted brain?

Wrong article. This is the one I intended.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/we-re-damned-if-we-do-and-damned-if-we-don-t-the-green-party-s-dilemma-1.4241240