Member Info for Manyana

f there is a whisper in the breeze about good news at the AGM I would hope we get a run up to next Monday which would be a good sign.

Here's hoping.

"kiboshed" is not a form of Chinese cooking.

I wonder will we have some news on the 20th, only a week away, to get us through the 4p barrier?

I see the "brains" working out "deal or no deal" Brexit still have not addressed the biggest Irish question "What happens to the "land-bridge" through the UK for goods coming and going to Ireland from the EU? With 150,000 lorries a year passing through the UK, they need to get their fingers out as we are running out of time.

For years the UK has tolerated this traffic on its motorways but what happens next January if there is no Brexit deal? This issue is far bigger than the "fisheries" one but it seems to be "long fingered" because nobody knows the solution. I don't like rotten bananas or tomatoes or stale bread. Chlorinated chicken would be preferable to that.

Sale of Ireland's second biggest stockbrokers gets the Chinese treatment. The Chinese do an ooslum bird act never to be seen again.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/goodbody-s-planned-155m-sale-to-bank-of-china-falls-through-1.4301428

Where have we seen this before?

With his background and the fact he has worked on the technical side with Haliburton makes him strategic.

And if we were wondering about the Barryroe conundrum, compartmentalised or not, the fact that he has come on board would seem to put that dog to bed. And when you read that "NRG provided services on the Barryroe project between 2011 and 2012, when the field was discovered to have 346 million barrels of oil equivalent." he would not be here if he did not think Barryroe was a runner and a big play at that.

"Semper Sursum" as they sing in Cork along with Kevin Barry and I hope they are not going to dedicate the song "An Poc ar Buile" to him.

By the way 200306, USC did not come into existence until 2011 so I fail to see how you retired 20 years ago because of it.

As they say, he did not buy his shares as a "pig in a poke".

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/providence-shares-rise-as-barryroe-expert-joins-board-1.4295763

I don't know what his overall price is now but I believe Furlong got in when O'Reilly issued shares,( in the main to institutions but a little bit to ordinary share holders) at 25p and again at 12p so he is obviously here for the long haul.

If we could get 25p or even 12p we would be delighted.

ps200306,

I am not sure if you live in Ireland but if you were here during the death of the "Celtic Tiger" you know the government was running around like headless chickens grabbing any money they could lay their hands on and like the rest of us you were surely "robbed" by that totally unfair tax "USC". For those who do not know what this is, the government took 7% off anything earned by anybody before income tax or any other tax was taken. Over the years they have diluted it down but it is still there.

Compared to the UK, Irish tax is penal because it is used to pay off the huge debt Ireland has to the EU.

Now what happens when we get out of Coronavirus. The texes will rise to pay off the extra billions borrowed.

So you can be sure they will grab anything that might ease that huge financial pain which is going to take years to pay off. One of those things is to reduce the $6billion they spend each year on importing oil and gas. So where are they going to get it from? The electric connection to France will not be ready before 2025 and of course they are going to have to pay for the electricity which still means they are paying through the nose.

Answers on a postcard please and send a copy to each of the "Greens" in the Irish government.

The Iri

The EU has approved funding for the LNG plant in Shannon and the "Greens" of all shades are up in arms.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/environmentalists-seek-european-court-referral-for-shannon-lng-project-1.4292965

I'm glad you are awake, LONGWAIT.

I have been mixing up my "now(s)" with my "not(s)". Probably due to the coronavirus.

I don't know why O'Reilly did not complete the deal but he spent millions on red herrings when that deal with Kinsale would have been transformative. I think he looked in too many "gift horses" in the mouth and got bitten.

And yes, if they take on Petronas now and get hold of the infrastructure I am sure Petronas will have to pay them or else they will have to spend a lot of money removing it from the seabed. And since Barryroe would be a continuation of the Seven Heads and Kinsale fields, I cannot see how Ryan or any of the other Greens could stop them doing it.

So, if Barryroe has a life expectancy of say 25 years, the decommissioning will wait until then, so it is a zero cost if they make enough money out of the oil and the gas in the meantime.

Previous item should have said "now" instead of "not".

"In fact, back in 2009, Providence bought into Kinsale gas but I don't know if they ever completed this deal, which the obviously did not do for the gas, but a similar deal would NOW be (much) cheaper and would have the same result but the deal back then, if completed, would have been transformative."

If they had bought it for between "$35m (€24m) and $40m (€27.4m)" I wonder how much they would have earned in the intervening years. Of course they would have had to take on the decommissioning as well but that will not fade into the far distance if they use the infrastructure to pump the gas to Cork.

The Nomad change to J&E Davy is a good one. Davy are the most respected stockbrokers on the Irish market.

I note San Leon have also changed theirs as I think the current one for both, Cantor Fitzgerald is no longer acting as nomad so the move to J&E Davy is a good one.

I also note Oisin's positive slant on Barryroe where he implies that the gas cannot be stopped if the Kinsale infrastrucutre is used for both development and carbon capture. Which is correct if Barryroe is seen as a continuation of Kinsale.

In fact, back in 2009, Providence bought into Kinsale gas but I don't know if they ever completed this deal, which the obviously did not do for the gas, but a similar deal would not be cheaper and would have the same result but the deal back then, if completed, would have been transformative.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/business/providence-acquires-40-stake-in-kinsale-head-gas-field-426382.html

I never understood why O'Reily did not develop Barryroe other than he though other possibilities were far bigger and he went for broke. It is also possible he was waiting for Kinsale to run out and he could pick up the infrastructure for peanuts and use it to develop Barryroe gas, an idea that Linn has hinted at.

While Barryroe has about 350m barrels O'Reilly was fooled by O'Sullivan and Schlumberger, who spent six months analysing the potential, and then, on their say-so, he backed the development of Druid and Drombeg where he thought there were billions of barrels of oil except it turned out to be water. If either of those had come in he would have been on the pig's back and he could have subsequently developed both Barryroe and Hook Head out of the revenue from either of those.

Like his father, both of whom were narcists, who loved the sounds of their own voices, they squandered billions of pounds, dollars and euros chasing a pipe dream where they would be "Mr Irish Oil". In both cases it backfired and both hit the dust.

Daddy O'Reilly should have cut his losses years earlier on Waterford Wedgewood but he insisted on plugging on as it lost billions. Its the old poker adage "Knowing when to hold them and knowing when to fold them." Both of them made the same mistakes and lost billions. They would both have been lousy poker players.

Hopefully Linn has learnt from their mistakes (which seems the case as he ditches a number of assets, keeps his head down and keeps his own council) and comes up with a deal with SpotOn, giving us some good news at the end of the month when they hold the AGM.

Historically, OF is only in it for the money and it looks like he will start raking it in soon. He has always been a "rogue" trader and knows how to rake it in so I think San Leon is definitely now out of the doldrums having got back with interest its initial investment on OMLl18 and is now just collecting the bunce.

And if it is good enough for Oisin it is definitely good for me. There is no way OF would buy £20m worth of shares at approximately 21p if he did not think these were going to fly.

Back in the dark ages I invested in the three components of Barryroe, Providence, Lansdowne and San Leon who traded their initial 30% in return for the 4.5% nett in Barryroe. After the Providence debacle where Fanning reckoned he could make about $700m from Barryroe over the life of the field and given their foray into Nigeria, a fate worse than death, I just put them on the backburner and left them there. Now, it seems, that might actually have been a good idea.

Some years ago Oisin swapped a salary for dividends, obviously using the 28% rather than the 40% tax. Now, with about a quarter of the shares and when you consider that Tosca has 51%, OF has 24% and Midwestern has 10% that means there is only a "free float" of about 15% which is about 60m shares to trade. Surely that is going to create a bit of a free-for-all in share buying? Could we get back to the 95p the shares were in July 2015?

I bought plenty of these when they were messing around in Poland and have kept on to them as a "loss leader" but it seems my day might well come. Hopefully others who had them from those Poland days have still kept theirs. In 2015, they did a share consolidation of 10:1 shares at 80p a share. Since then the shares have drifted down to their current 25p but with the latest news they are surely worth the 80p they were in 2015 or at worst the 40p they were in the middle of last year.

As far as I was concerned, I thought they were mad to do a deal in Nigeria because it is so corrupt but it would seem the lemons have turned up right and with only 67.5m shares in free float a bit of pressure will surely get these heading back to a reasonable price. A price of 95p, dated 3rd July 2015 would be very nice.

70% of Greens expected to favour coalition so we are in for a hodgepodge of a government.

San Leon has written down its value in Barryroe.

"San Leon wrote down the carrying value of its interest by $48.4 million last year to $2.8 million."

Not only that, but Oisin has increased his interest in San Leon to almost 24% paying £20.7m for the privilage. With Tosca owning just under 51% that means 75% of San Leon is in "private" hands.

Years ago, Fanning changed his remunerance to be paid out of dividends (tax benefits here I see), so he now gets 24% of any dividends and they recently spent $66m on those which means he is rolling in it.

I wonder will my San Leon shares bring me the "riches" I hoped Barryroe would. Wishful Thinking?

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/ois%C3%ADn-fanning-s-san-leon-writes-down-barryroe-interest-1.4288536

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/ois%C3%ADn-fanning-s-san-leon-writes-down-barryroe-interest-1.4288536

Further to the previous there is one saving grace in the announcement and that is:

"Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil will hold a “super junior” transport ministry in Mr Ryan’s department to ensure key projects are protected;"

So he is not going to get it all his own way.

I can see plenty of fisticuffs in that department.

Not too hopeful article this morning in Irish Examiner.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/eamon-ryan-to-lead-beefed-up-climate-department-if-government-deal-approved-1007504.html

That would put him in charge of DCCAE and we know how slow they are already at making decisions.

Barryroe development depends on "with the approval of the minister" who is likely to be Ryan.

What is interesting me is why are the DCCAE taking so long to give permission for the site survey which they gave until 14th May for any objections. I also note Woodside have also been left in abeyance.

Interesting program last evening on McVitie biscuits where they talked about the use of gas. It seems the factory in north London uses as much gas in one hour than a normal house would use in a year and they have five factories. And people say we don't need gas. I am afraid McVitie biscuits would not be the same if they were cooked with electricity.

Veradkar has upset the Greens with his statement at the weekend regarding the LNG in Shannon.

It is reported he said:

"Speaking to Fine Gael members in a Facebook Live event on Sunday, Mr Varadkar said that the government will not be helping the Shannon LNG project, but suggested it may still become reality as the private company may still pursue it."

Poor Greens.

Irish Examiner says Green vote, in or out, is on a knife edge.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/views/analysis/aoife-moore-green-party-voting-on-coalition-set-to-go-down-to-the-wire-1006564.html