Member Info for ManxKippers

Interesting thoughts re Block XX sale.

I would rather that be a buy in by Petro China. 50% for $90million ish. This is a great field and would pay good dividends for some time to come.

Regardless, the point is that the company has options for development. MB knows this for sure. The board seems blind in some cases to what seems obvious to me. The MG needs this to happen. They are panicking about how to pump enough oil in the short time left before the refinery is built. Government intervention with support and possible guarantees have to happen.

This is hotting up nicely. Hopefully this week we will start to get a glimmer.

My gut is still No Raise!

He's killing me.

Totally agree WOS.

As stated yesterday, I think this is hotting up. MG getting desperate for oil and quickly. This needs a major increase in action and activity for enough wells to be sunk urgently to get the oil out of the ground in enough quantity.

Government is having to get involved in putting parties together and perhaps even supporting government backed guarantees for loans as a part of their desperation and initiative to get this thundering along.

The next RNS and perhaps the AGM are going to be huge for us - IMO.

SP remains stuck due to lack of belief! It will happen for sure.

Mine are! 544360 and 526109.

Have you topped up too Richar?

Yes - but precious little activity on matd. Very very few sales or buys really.

Lets see what happens when people really do want to wade into this!

This is all hotting up nicely to me. The sense of desperation for oil and a realisation that the government needs to move mountains to get it for the refinery - and quickly, seems obious to me.

Just topped up with another million shares!

In most countries, where there is a national government project like an oil refinery, then the government backs the project with either soft loans or government back loan guarantees.

It would not surprise me if this style of initiative isn't being discussed and seriously for MATD and the drilling company to drive the need for sinking wells rapidly.

They need probably 5 or 6 mobile drilling units for MATD to get this done.

I am looking forward to seeing how this all unfolds.

I fully appreciate this sounds far fetched if you look at things today, Jimithebrush. But if the Mongolian government want to feed the beast of the new refinery, this is what has to happen.

I sense the desperation of the Mongolian minister who clearly has stated the first 100 days for oil focus in 2025. Because if they don't move very fast, support the funding where they can, perhaps extend the guarantees for loans, put pressure on the drilling companies to get more equipment in - this is not going to come together for them.

Therefore - and we will see, this is the year for full mobilisation of everything to get the wells sunk and oil being pumped now.

This is the desperation for them, not for me. I am happily investing in this because something really big has to happen here and now! IOM.

No - I don't think so.

I honestly believe in this. We are on the cusp. Nothing desperate about it at all. I am gently buying more for the long term.

Sorry you think this is Rogue!!

We are now at day 51 in 2025. Over half way for the first 100 days of 2025 statement for Oil priority stated by the minister.

So far we have the special license grated for Heron and we have one of the expected two new block licenses grated.

We are still waiting for the signed sales agreement and the export lisence being granted for the oil pumped already and the resulting finds into the company account.

We are also expecting the second block to be awarded to MATD.

49 days to deliver everything. The sales agreement and export lisence expected / hoped for before the end of February!

Looking good to me!!

I agree Thornogson.

With a good wind behind us, the turnaround would be very rekatively sudden and quick and by 2028 at the earliest, we may see a dividend.

Proper, real, meaningful and substantial dividends in 2029 to 2030 give or take. But definately possible and in good time.

The SP will reflect this in steps along the way.

Thank you Corpse.

Well - I disagree. In a company you can get permission to release dividends having got to a point of turning positive to positive and profitable cash flow when you have capitally intensive companies requiring a lot of up front cash. Not ideal as you would want to use the losses going forward. However, as this is an IOM company, there are no corporation taxes to write your losses off against. I am unsure of how the company earnings would stand in Mongolia and if they would be subjected to Mongolian tax measures and what they are. So losses don't really mean no dividend - so they could get permission and pay.

Alternatively and more in line with what I would hope, should the board decide to hold funds in the company to cover the negative balance sheet to recover those built up losses, then with the earnings for production needed by 2027 based on circa 25,000 bpd supplied from MATD JUST FOR THE REFINERY, this would generate $1,000,000 of net margin income per day (All things remaining as they are now with oil over $70 pb). It is quite possible that on this basis, by the Spring of 2027 (24 months time) this could be firmly in the bank and all losses covered from pumping this required oil quantity for the refinery. In addition we have potential for renewable income - yet to be properly presented and quantified by MATD. Any additional oil above what would be needed would be sold for yet more income.

Wells cost circa $4 million. Say they plant 40 successful wells between now and the end of 2026 drilling season. Say they pump 500 bpd. This would be a further $160 million of investment needed though the cash generated after 10 wells would cover the roll out easily without further external funding needed. The business probably needs to borrow up to $50 million to achieve this.

Therefore, it is quite possible to look to pay a dividend by the end of the trading year of 2027with a dividend being announced from the spring AGM in 2028. The dividend level after 2027 might be low at circa 1p or 2 p per share for the 2027 results. But the subsequent years trading should easily be 10p to 12p per share.

I do not think that is nonsense at all!

Love that intel, Abzzba. Thank you.

Fun, fascinating and potentially exciting!

This was only my opinion Abzzba. The more unknown is the long term price of oil, amongst other things.

However, if all remains roughly stable, then I can see an annual dividend potential of circa 12p to 15p per share within 30 to 48 months. That must conservatively value the sp at circa £1.50 in my book.

IMO - I think the SP will be a stepped rise in price rather than a sudden multi-bagger. This is unless there are major investment portfolios risking investing in Mongolia.

That said - I also think that if the rapid sinking of wells in the next 30 months resulting in circa 25,000 barrels per day being supplied to the new refinery from MATD along, then at circa $40 per barrel of margin - and a daily income of $1,000,000 per day, it is hard to see a SP under £1.50 per share by the end of 2027. This is despite any other activities for renewables and selling greater volumes to China.

For this reason it is a strong buy for me and a medium term hold stock.

NB - This assumes everything we have been told is true and the income will start to flow within weeks and not months from now.

I do not believe this would happen.

However, if China decided to delay and delay for the signing of the sales contract, then this would heavily damage MATD and Mongolia.

Mongolia needs the oil and the only other player who can supply is Petro China.

It could be agreed there is enough oil in the world for China not to worry and to hold all for ransom.

Whilst totally unlikely due to the bigger picture re renewable energy etc, I don't like the sense of only one realistic route to market.

Also noting the latest Petro China shares are lower to the tune of 12% over the last year.

Thank you, Doc.

This would make total sense. The board will pass the resolution for sure to give them funding options. The question then is will they use it, or a part of it, or will they borrow??

This will depend on the sales contract being signed, export license issued and revenue being seen to be deposited, along with a very careful expansion of commercial income generating activities without wild card prospecting.

If the board knuckle down for one year only, drilling high chance to almost certainty Wells near to H1 and pumping big, the company will not need to raise, IMO.

We will seem.

Thank you WOS.

I raised a question yesterday regarding the potential for MATD to di a raise. It was suggested that the articles of association of the company had a limit to dilute shares through a raise and this had been invlcreased from 33% to 43%, from memory.

My question was that with the raise done last year, in this financial year for MATD, does this mean they can not.do another raise without a special resolution or an AGM?

Or as the company is in its next financial year anyway, can it technically raise now as well?? Is a raise limited within a financial year or with the stated shares in distribution as stated within the company articles of association?

Do you have any clues on any limits preventing the board from raising and protecting the share holders and the spec a little?

I understand this is just technical, and that either at the AGM or possibly at any time due to the comapny being in the next financial year, they could do a raise relatively easily.

Thank you.

We can call the vet and dig the hole, if you would like, Horses!

It would be sad as you might have dismounted just before the race of your life starts!

No one is making any real movements in relation to stock holdings today.

Very few sales and very few buys. All quiet and stable. Calm befor ethe storm - perhaps??