Member Info for Mantasz

Applying some TA analysis to the price may clarify things.

A good bullish pattern still in place from the more dominant Monthly & Weekly timeframes.

The lower timeframes incorporate more of the active trading into the picture but the Daily still comfortably above the EMA50 & EMA14.

Price sitting at the 5 10p support which I mentioned in my previous post but will have to see how the daily candle closes.

In summary - those holding long are sitting comfortably with the bull trend still firmly in place

Integrating fundamentals in then we're moving g closer to the EL issuance within the Q2 timeframe which supports the trend on the timeframes mentioned.

With the confluence of the Monthly & Weekly mentioned the shorter timeframe volatility is noise in the bigger picture or opportunity depending on how you see it

I picked up a little more based on the Technical outlook on a long hold.

Make your own decisions

The TA trajectory is pretty clear and I wont repost it.

You can refer to my 13:48 post yeaterday

I dont post often but happy to give my input especially when I see a clear bull run setting up like this one. PIs deserve some breaks.

Petrovis are the largest independent oil distributors in Mongolia and Petro Matad's largest shareholder. They've just given the company a loan to cover working capital expenditure until fast track monetization of the Heron asset is completed. The market expected a small Placing to cover that and why the price was heavily depressed until its completion. That brake has now been removed.

The Mongolian Govt are completing the construction of a major refinery which will need raw material and in line with the policy towards greater domestic energy reliance. Petro Matad have been specifically mentioned in this regard.

MATD have a very generous PSC with the Govt and due to the major shareholder are effectively viewed as a domestic company and not a foreign interloper.

Global manufacturing and production is setting to gear up for a post Covid, widescale vaccined world. Oil price projections are buoyant and expected to increase to match that demand.

Prior to the Heron discovery we had a hard push in a relatively condensed timeframe from an SP of around 3p to around 33p.

We had fewer shares then but NO oil discovery and infrastructure for rapid monetization and post Covid run up of the oil price.

The 13:48 post yesterday refers to that in the context of resistance levels drawn up on the monthly timeframe.

As I said in that post I had major difficulty securing a quote on even 10k shares.

The EL will be issued and barring any major global meltdown. I also agree that Mike Buck would have given himself leeway and I expect it'll be comfortably within the Q2 timeframe.

Some people have mentioned an inflow of institutional funds after the EL due to investment parameters towards monetization of an existing asset being satisfied. Especially with a farm in agreement expected to be announced soon afterwards.

I'd agree with that and the impact itll have on the share price is obvious and especially with the difficulty in picking up stock just at this moment.

I'm comfortable seeing those steady organic building up of the share price and embrace the exceptional risk v reward profile that MATD presents.

I'm looking for a return based on prices significantly above those being discussed but all in good time.

I'm glad to post occasionally and share some TA and integrated fundamentals but make your own investment decisions.

I had problems doing a buy for 10k shares so we know how the lack of free float is going to impact the ability to pick up stock.

Following on from the TA analysis given before and which is playing out to a Tee -

The daily chart tested showed a strong rejection off the 5.10p support with a bullish descending wedge setting up for the breakout.

The EMA14 crossing of the EMA50 with the price sitting comfortably above both indicators.

Intraday 4 hr & 1hr candles supporting the bullish move and clear rejection of the EMA14.

I'm not sure where the 17th May date comes from so wont consider that in any analysis integrating the Fundamentals with the TA.

The 5.10p support looks solid with clear rejection of that level so I'd expect the price to challenge the 6.0p resistance in the next few days.

We then have an unobstructed path towards the 8.06p and 12.65p levels.

The next clear resistance level beyond that would be at 32.74p which the price reached around Mar 2017.

Integrating the fundamentals with TA we now have the Ftse breaking 7000 with expectations for strong economic growth going forward and a corresponding bullish oil price projection.

There were less shares in issue in 2017 but MATD still have a relatively low free float and an actual oil discovery in Heron 1 with potential for up to 2Bn barrels encompassing the wider asset. That slots into the much higher price projections in the multi £s range.

However just on the more conservative figures the company are still heavily undervalued and I'm fully expecting the 32p levels to be challenged in due course.

The EL is a good starting point for the Re-rate and what I expect will be Farm in news following rapidly after its issuance and the fact that discussions are currently already taking place.

Im expecting a very near term breakout to those levels indicated and see this to be one of the biggest movers on aim with an exceptional risk reward profile. That's why I certainly wont be trading it

Make your own buying decisions

We've had the healthy pullback and now the TA showing the stock positioned for its next bull run upwards.

Price sitting well above the 50 &14 day EMAs with a bullish cross of the EMA 14 above the 50.

Good Hammer formation showing the intraday dip aggresively bought into and confirming the strong support at 4.9p.

Should be a strong buying day tomorrow and would expect the price to break through resistance to establish new near term highs in the next few trading days.

Good to see strong fundamentals reinforcing the very bullish TA indicators.

You may want to be looking at a more realistic £3-£5 projection

That puts trading for a fraction penny profit now into perspective

The talk of a £350 mkt cap or 50p SP is a conservative projection.

"The Exploitation Area includes the entire extension into Block XX of the proven and producing Toson Uul Basin. This basin contains an estimated 2 billion barrels of in place oil"

10-20p just is the baseline price range just off the EL

Makes more sense when you know the bigger picture here

If you can put 2 BILLION in caps ;)

That is one heck of a (potential) resource and why I'm.saying whack as much as you can into MATD ??

The conservative £350M mkt cap projections equating to 50p put the pullback & current SP into perspective

The reason for the rise was that the funds to cover working capital was going to be required before the end of Q2.

Potential investors were waiting for that. The loan from Petrovis covered that base.

Now we can look forward to the game changing EL without any price brakes. Pullbacks are expected and this one will bounce back hard.

People seem to be confused in valuing MATD based on just Heron1.

MATD are looking at FULL HERON DEVELOPMENT and where the much higher price projections are coming from.

The oil is there - the demand is there - the infrastructure is there.

What we're waiting for is the EL which will catalyse the whole process and is due at any time within the coming few weeks.

There'll be no problems at all getting RBL on a fast track producting asset and we know Farm- in talks are ALREADY taking place.

Those quoting those 50p+ projections are bang on the money although it would help if they knew why they were quoting those figures.

Many that have taken a quick trade have already bought back in or are openly stating that's what they're looking to do.

The fundamentals suggest a very hard bounce back up and some will no doubt be caught out.

Try picking up stock on the bounce ;)

Buy on your own research, sit back and wait to see what happens.

This'll see 50p+ and probably a fair bit higher going forward

We're looking at full Heron field development, not just Heron 1. Refer to Mike Bucks latest interview for the 2Bn reference

That's where the current Farm in talks come in. They're happening right NOW as per Mike Bucks latest interview.

D1nger, your absolutely right that this should be a 25 BAGGER on assets alone. Petrochina likely will be the Farm in partners and can take over MATD as Mongolia already have buying rights to part of the production for their new refinery coming on stream.
People have seen nothing yet. This us the just the start of the rise back above 50p

https://youtu.be/8lbj0mw-w-E
Mike Buck mentions it in the recent interview just after 7:30 mins in. He's in talks right NOW and I think it's highly likely it'll be announced as a firm deal just after the EL announcement. That RNS is due ANY TIME WITHIN the coming few weeks

The next push up underway!!

The TA is looking at 5p being broken by the end of next week according to ShareTalk
https://www.share-talk.com/share-talk-bulletin-board-heroes-monday-19th-april-2021/#gs.ymbf4e

What people don't realize is that the EL is going to trigger major Institutional buying due to many of their investment criteria being satisfied AND existing asset base & quick monetization. That'll feed into the 60p+ targets being hit with such low free float & major Institutional volume. Much better than any 88e prospects.