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As I commented on with my other main holding MATD, we had the Fed statement last week re: possible interest rate rises in 2023, which impacted the wider markets. Those with more than only a couple of holdings in their PFs will be aware of that.
We saw a slippage below the previous 16.10p support on both the Monthly & Daily timeframes and a move below the EMA14 on the daily.
However, the wider market looks more bullish today with the price positioned at the 'value entry' 0.5 Fib. retrace level and downward candle wick indicating buying right on the EMA14 (Weekly chart).
The daily shows a respecting of the EMA50 with strong buying kicking in at that level.
I added to my position around 17.10p (with a much lower overall avg) prior to the slippage of the last few days and based on the rationale given at the time.
Ie any downward price movement would likely be dwarfed by the upside projection hence putting the bigger picture into a clearer perspective.
We can expect an Operational RNS innthe very near term and some broadly bullish indications for the price reversal back upwards, although further confirmation indicators would be provided through the Weekly closing candle.
As always do your own independent research on WSBN or the other stock mentioned.
Just a quick post and putting recent price moves into perspective.
Last week we had the Fed statement re: the possibility of several interst rate rises in 2023. The market reacted off that as anyone with more than a couple of stocks in their PFs will know. As we've seen in the past with MATD small trading volumes have relativy larger impacts on the SP than you would usually see with other stocks.
On a Technical front that resulted in a break down below the 7.10p support on the Daily which was holding well prior to the Fed news in a comfortable trading channel. Also a move below the EMA14.
However the Weekly gives us a clearer picture of the underlying trend so less influenced by last weeks market drop. We're still sitting (very) co fortably above the EMA14 and next support at 6p as well as perfectly positioned on the Fib 0.618 retracement level.
We'll need a confirmation of the weekly closing candle to see how price respects the above.
Integrating fundamentals we know that we'll be getting the Final Results RNS within the next week or so. I expect they'll be consistent with the most recent interview with Mike Buck /RNSs which have been very bullish and reflecting the transformational switch for MATD often discussed here.
The wider markets look more bullish today and the daily bearish candles look to be losing momentum, feeding into the good expectation of bounce back off the Fib retracement and leading into a good set of Results.
Again actual price will tell but very comfortable with the fundamentals underpinning the investment and beyond shorter term price movements.
My own view is that the price on opening for the RNS, consistent with the above, will override any of the recent slippage that we've seen over the last few trading days.
As always do your own independent research.
When people talk about praying and all the other types of BB hysteria, it's always best to go back to the fundamental investment case.
It's all there for people to access and with a backdrop of increasing oil prices.
You can refer to the recent Interview with the CEO if necessary.
https://youtu.be/8lbj0mw-w-E
All the talk about praying etc is just the usual BB rhetoric.
We know, relatively low volumes disproportionately move the price. That works both ways as we've seen in trying to secure stock on a bull run.
Given the fact that the EL will be completely transformational for the company and the projected upside multiples of the current price, it really does put the price slippage into perspective.
Certainly something to bear in mind with the suggested praying due to the possibility of a minor timeline slippage.
I'm anticipating an update irrespective if that was the case, so an RNS in the next couple of weeks either way.
Itll be notification of the Exploitation License or strong reassurance of its progress with near term issuance.
Pretty good when you're looking at multiples attached to the MATD investment.
We had the same hysteria when the price was sitting at around 3p.
Lots of personal criticisms of the CEO, beauracracy, conspiracy theories about the Govt wanting to take over and more.
We saw the share price move up significantly with the obvious advancing of the EL processs (roger to official RNSs and not BB mutterings) and working capital issues confidently addressed through Petrovis.
I'm sure we will get an RNS within the next 2 weeks and either the EL issueed or notification of its imminant issue.
I expect either one to be very positive and given the amendments were specifically stated as being minor ones.
If people have serious doubts about the EL issuance they should really sell up ;)
Small volumes move this so not really surprising or a big deal to have seen some price slippage by a few percent here & there.
Any good news shoukd immediately push the price higher than any recent high and good luck to anyone trying g to pick up stock in that situation.
We can talk about delays, conspiracies and whatever. The reality based on the official communication is that the EL will be issued shortly and any (recent) delay has been due to those minor amendments to be corrected. Previous delays were exacerbated by a global pandemic which people seem to conveniently omit from mentioning in posts
Many will have the patience to hold, aware of the major upside & without any undue stress or meltdowns ;)
We had the same hysteria when the price was sitting at around 3p.
Lots of personal criticisms of the CEO, beauracracy, conspiracy theories about the Govt wanting to take over and more.
We saw the share price move up significantly with the obvious advancing of the EL processs (roger to official RNSs and not BB mutterings) and working capital issues confidently addressed through Petrovis.
I'm sure we will get an RNS within the next 2 weeks and either the EL issueed or notification of its imminant issue.
I expect either one to be very positive and given the amendments were specifically stated as being minor ones.
If people have serious doubts about the EL issuance they should really sell up ;)
Small volumes move this so not really surprising or a big deal to have seen some price slippage by a few percent here & there.
Any good news should immediately push the price higher than any recent high and good luck to anyone trying to pick up stock in that situation.
We can talk about delays, conspiracies and whatever. The reality based on the official communication is that the EL will be issued shortly and any (recent) delay has been due to those minor amendments to be corrected. Previous delays were exacerbated by a global pandemic which people seem to conveniently omit from mentioning in posts
Many will have the patience to hold, aware of the major upside & without any undue stress or meltdowns ;)
I added about 40% to my holding level today and based on the minor support level at around 17p. The actual trade was slightly higher but I'm aware that we're looking at 'areas' rather than distinct price levels when dealing with S/R.
I added previously at around 16.15p as that was an established Resistance turned Support.
As always S/R levels are only as good as the the market's respecting if them but they do provide very useful guidelines for expected price action, especially if used in conjunction with confirmation indicators.
From my perspective, I can see a very clear uptrend in place with distinct higher lows, hence todays purchase at the 17p minor support area.
Accepting no guarantees I think we can fairly comfortably predict a continuation of the Uptrend given the trajectory towards Newsflow of drilling commencement.
On a side note I think Trek may have a point re: some selling of the placement shares with warrants looking to be forcibly exercised / cancelled due to the 20p cause for such.
I'd also be very surprised indeed if that price wasnt passed in due course.
Upside v downside ie 16.15 established support v 41p next resistance beyond 20.45p (minor support at 17p of course) on my purchases today based on all the various TA & Fundamental factors, makes the decision a comfortable one to sit with.
Make your own decisions on your own investment criteria.
I'm pretty sure Covid had a significant hand in the 2 year delay.
Maybe they could have speeded things up doing things remotely? They seem to be up to spec with that now. But shoulds & coulds aren't where I'm focused for the investment.
It's where we are right now & where we're going us how I asses the investment. Past delays dont slot into that but only the reasons why and if they still impact it.
As usual best to refer to official sources rather than BB mutterings which might have more to do with individual positions of current divestment or positioning to buy stock ;)
We're at the very final stage for the official Exploitation License issuance, which will fundamentally change the investment proposition of MATD. That's the official position.
Where Mike Buck lives is pretty irrelevant to the above unless you want it to be, lol.
The TA on the higher timeframes still unchanged and bullish, as part of the wider uptrend.
The Daily timeframe release the more recent price action, with the price clearly positioned up fortably within the 7.10p-8.10p trading channel, those prices reflecting the minor support & resistance levels.
As we've seen, small trades can move the price quite significantly but generally low volumes seen over the recent trading days.
The market seems to be waiting atm but sellers from what we presume will likely be from lower entries, are being offset by higher level buyers and setting up a more stable platform on any subsequent price rise.
The fundamentals are as previously discussed with the obvious point of progressing towards the EL issuance rns, probably (but not guaranteed) within the next few weeks.
Some speculation(and not without justification) of the Heron field financing being announced at the same time. We know Farm in discussions have taken place and although 'unitisation' with Petro China isn't on the cards, a JV with Petro Matad taking the reigns is a very viable option.
Production and associated revenues are likely to forthcoming in 2022, with any earlier timeframe being a bonus.
Working capital requirements are already covered until Q3 2022, so it's the Exploitation License that will really start to unlock the inherent value in MATD.
The market will be forward looking to revenue generation and the massive potential of the BlockXX extension area, of the proven & producing Tosun Uul Basin, with an estimated 2 Billlion barrels oil in place in the adjacent Blocks XXI & XIX.
The investment criteria as the company position to transition as producers, will likely attract formerly excluded Institutional investment into the stock and replace the more transient retail component, imo.
That should further unlock the higher value price estimates going forward.
My own position has been that of accumulating stock, assuming that the Exploitation License issuance will be a given, the subsequent Re-rate and fundamental shift in the company's standing towards and corresponding price appreciation going forward.
As always do your own independent research in conjunction with the TA & Fundamental factors discussed above.
As mentioned before, all the higher timeframes clearly show a bullish Uptrend in place, with the Daily & Weekly close on Friday confirming that.
A clear doji candle on Thursday set the platform for the push on Friday, with speculation on the drilling start date seeming to feed into that.
I was watching for a pull back & retest of the 16.10p minor support but good to see the 17p short term resistance now turned support on the daily, again linking into the 'higher lows' as part of the Uptrend.
Factoring in the fundamentals, it looks like the next major resistance level at 20.45p will be breached in the very near term and given the move towards drilling and heavy retail interest associated with WSBN.
Also factoring in the upside potential and geology / involved parties linking it with the GGP mega rise.
Resistance levels at 41p & 80.60p with eventual potential price projections at circa £5, underpin the retail interest and rare placing premium seen.
That again leads into the very strong expectations for a breach of the next 20.45p resistance and rapid progression thereafter with forced exercising or termination of warrants.
Im very confident with my own investment in WSBN (and my other major Mongolian O&G prospect) based on the very strong TA and Fundamentals, but do your own independent research in conjunction with the above.
You may want to factor in that the biggest shareholder is the largest independent oil distributor in Mongolia and that the country has a new $Billion refinery that needs feedstock.
That adds some weight to the argument ;)
I wouldn't call it a binary bet as no ones really doubting the EL will be issued. But I see your point where what people want is the red dot RNS confirmation.
I'm not sure about the EL being issued 2 days ago when they've said by the end of Q2. Why would it be linked to any expo or other event?
It's a beauracratic process. It may slightly over run, it may not.
We all agree on the impact it'll have on the company & share price.
The extension into Block XX of the Toson Uul Basin containing 2 Billion barrels oil in place ;)
We've had a lot of 'opinions' being put forward, some with reasoned justifications & others of the 'I think so' variety.
People can make their own minds up as to which might have validity or not.
Good to see some sound TA being posted (Jackthebear /Wisetrader) but use that in conjunction with your own independent research & overall approach to investing.
I also disregard Britushbulls as there analysis is all automated and too simplistic / Zak Mir as he has a wider trading agenda and his price 'projections' use a wedge trajectory, which is more hype than substance, imo - personal rant over and underpinning my bias towards more objective TA.
The longer timeframes give us a clearer picture of price action and filter out a lot of the short duration distractions in price movement. That's more geared towards the investment / swing trade outlook rather than the very short term trading approach.
The longer timeframes all show a very clear confluence indicating a bullish uptrend with resistance levels around the 20.45p and then 41p & 80.60p levels.
We have a clear support at 16.10p in conjunction with a textbook Fib 0.5 retrace and EMA14 level. As we saw, strong buying kicked in at that level.
As I posted earlier, a pullback & retest of that level was likely and is seen as a healthy part of a sustained uptrend.
The weekly candle closed with a long downward wick and daily close co comfortably above the 16.15p support.
Integrating the fundamentals, Gold is the well tested safe have agai st macro inflationary concerns, hence we can reasonably expect bullish prices for some time. We can obviously factor copper I to the equation with its rising price and the specific investment logistics, which have already been well documented in other posts.
There are numerous other investments out there but I particularly lije the indications for WSBN (and my other Mongolian Oil stock), which have a very strong TA & Fundamental basis underpinning significant rises going forward.
Jackthebear, you asked about the Fibonacci tool in a post to someone else, who was referring to my earlier post. Try Tradingview which has paid for & free options.
Atb
Now we have the closing of the weekly timeframe, we can get a clearer picture of the price action.
As I've mentioned before, the higher timeframes give us a more accurate picture of price unfolding out and filter out a lot of the minor fluctuations.
The closing weekly candle shows a break above the short term trend line with the daily close indicating a Doji respecting the EMA14 support and after 3 successive red bearish candles.
These indicate a bullish reversal after the short term bearish bias seen over the previous few trading days.
Support /resistance levels tend to be areas rather than distinct prices in practice and we saw strong buying kick in at around 7.30p rather than at the 7.10-7.20p minor support seen previously. That further reinforces that higher support level after the pull back & retest.
Currently the price is trading within a narrow wedge between the 7.20p -8.10p support /resistance levels.
Integrating fundamentals, oil prices remain buoyant and are expected to increase further going forward.
I dont subscribe to any view of the Exploitation License issued to coincide with specific events. It's a topic for speculation and good to get it out there but may or may not happen.
I'm going by the official timeline for the end of June but it may go slightly beyond that or be issued earlier. It doesnt affect my view of the investment in any significant way.
I'm focusing very much on where I expect the price can go after the EL is issued, a JV deal concluded (which we know initial discussions have already taken place) and development of Heron progresses with wider activities in parallel with that.
Do I expect the share price to be anything remotely near the current level at that point? No!
We have the next major resistance levels at around 12.68p & 32.75p.
I'd expect the price opening on the EL issuance day to be significantly above any recent short term dip due to the magnitude of the news & low free float, so happy enough holding firm to my own secured stock.
Hope that helps along with your own independent research
As I posted over the weekend the pullback was likely and is seen as a healthy sign from a TA perspective, as long as the previous resistance is seen to be respected as a new support.
Looking at the daily close along with intraday analysis, the previous Monthly resistance around the 16.15p area is being heavily bought into.
Any support or resistance level is as important as the market respecting it as such. The next few trading days along with the weekly closing candle should give us a clearer perspective.
However the price is still comfortably above the 14 & 50 day EMAs with the aforementioned buoyancy around the previous resistance at 16.15p now seeming to establish as the new support.
Very healthy price consolidation with the pullback and setting up well for a future progression of the longer term uptrend in place.
Fundamentals are as discussed by others and underpin that Uptrend mentioned.
Make your own decisions off your own independent research.
I usually only post on my main O&G investment MATD (click on username if interested), but thought I'd put up a TA analysis on SYME, as it may provide some greater clarity to the Price Action.
The Monthly shows a nice candle break of the downward trend line sitting conveniently at the 0.35p support area, the price currently looking comfortable in rejecting the Weekly support & EMA50 at 0.39p.
The Daily shows choppy price action within a narrow trading range but still above the EMA14.
That broadly translates as a fairly buoyant price with a good support at around 0.39p and the next key resistance (areas) being at 0.574p & 0.745p respectively.
From a fundamental perspective we've had several positive updates and now await the filings which will either test the 0.39p /0.35p support levels if perceived as negative or see the price trajectory incline towards the next key resistance levels (0.57p/0.74p) over an appropriate timeframe.
I hope that helps some current or potential investors along with their own I dependent research.
I usually focus on TA /Fundamental analysis for MATD (click on username if interested) but wanted to provide one here which may benefit those holding or looking at the stock.
As always the higher ti frames take precedent in viewing the larger trends amidst the shorter duration price fluctuations.
We have good indications for all of them with a rising EMA14 and a break above the intra week short term trend line on Friday.
The price powered through the previous support on the monthly at 16.15p which sits just below the current 0.5 fib replacement level.
Ideally we'd want a pullback to retest the previous resistance but the break back above the intra week downtrend line may not see that happening.
We have further resistance levels at the 41p & 81p areas with the magnitude of upside tying in well with the fundamentals attached to the investment.
The fundamentals & price predictions have been discussed at length on this BB and individuals need to make their own minds up regarding the validity of each of those.
The new shares are entering the market on the 26th May with Dr. Beams presentation on 27th May in Australia (check for tinezone differences).
The gold price is extremely buoyant and looks to continue so as wider inflationary concerns still linger.
I hope that helps along with your own independent research. Back to MATD.
I usually post on my main O&G investment (click on username if interested) but thought I'd provide a TA assesment on SYME as it may provide some greater clarity to the Price Action.
The Monthly shows a nice candle break of the downward trend line sitting conveniently at the 0.35p support area, the price currently looking comfortable in rejecting the Weekly support & EMA50 at 0.39p.
The Daily shows choppy price action within a narrow trading range but still above the EMA14.
That broadly translates as a fairly buoyant price with a good support at around 0.39p and the next key resistance (areas) being at 0.574p & 0.745p respectively.
From a fundamental perspective we've had several positive updates and now await the filings which will either test the 0.39p /0.35p support levels if perceived as negative or see the price trajectory incline towards the next key resistance levels (0.57p/0.74p) over an appropriate timeframe.
I hope that helps some current or potential investors along with their own I dependent research.
I usually focus on TA /Fundamental analysis for MATD (click on username if interested) but wanted to provide one here which may benefit those holding or looking at the stock.
As always the higher timeframes take precedent in viewing the larger trends amidst the shorter duration price fluctuations.
We have good indications for all of them with a rising EMA14 and a break above the intra week short term trend line on Friday.
The price powered through the previous support on the monthly at 16.15p which sits just below the current 0.5 fib replacement level.
Ideally we'd want a pullback to retest the previous resistance but the break back above the intra week downtrend line may not see that happening.
We have further resistance levels at the 41p & 81p areas with the magnitude of upside tying in well with the fundamentals attached to the investment.
The fundamentals & price predictions have been discussed at length on this BB and individuals need to make their own minds up regarding the validity of each of those.
The new shares are entering the market on the 26th May with Dr. Beams presentation on 27th May in Australia (check for tinezone differences).
The gold price is extremely buoyant and looks to continue so as wider inflationary concerns still linger.
I hope that helps along with your own independent research. Back to MATD.
As I've mentioned before, the bigger picture can be seen more clearly on the higher timeframes of the Monthly, Weekly & Daily candle closures. This takes out the non material dips & rises that a lot of less experienced investors react to. This overview doesnt consider the short view trading agenda which may benefit from intraday / compressed view outlooks. Spreads & liquidity dont make this the obvious candidate for quick trading anyway but the perfect candidate for capital gain off material price rise expectations.
ALL higher timeframes are bullish for a continuation of the current uptrend in place.
All have a clear EMA14 above the EMA50 with both rising and well below the price candle.
The Daily shows a clear break above the short term trend line off the price dip and positioning the price well going forward. That price dip respected the minor support at around 7.2p which was a textbook perfect 0.5 Fib retrace and where the large buy order seemed to be set.We now need a rejection of the 8.10p resistance where its conveniently sitting at the moment.
Integrating fundamentals the obvious is staring us in the face ie we're moving ever closer to the EL issuance RNS. This isn't a question of 'maybe it will, maybe it wont' or even the how long is a piece of string timeframe when looking at when. Officially we're set for by the end of Q2 2021
Given we're are at the very final stage we can expect to have the notification released anyday within the next 20 trading days. Even with any slight time slippage we would still have the same component of expectation ie if it did go beyond the end of June it would still be expected any day after that within a compressed timeframe so not really expecting any major drop in the price.
The magnitude of the news setting up the fundamental transition to wards a revenue generation operation has been discussed on this BB in some depth.
D1nger mentioned the likelihood of the JV agreement already having been discussed and various references to that matter suggest that's the case imo.
A lot of Newsflow after (or with) the EL announcement anyways.
Very significantly MATD will have become a much higher quality vehicle attracting larger inward institutional investment. Given the amount of free stock availability the effect of the capital appreciation element for shareholders becomes obvious.
Someone mentioned Baille having a 2.61% interest already which Ft.com seems to confirm as well as a 4M held by West Yorkshire Pension Fund (independently verify that).
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=MATD:LSE
It was commented on that Baille only go for better quality investments. MATD already looks to be a very good risk v reward proposition and should become much more attractive to those institutions shortly.
Hopefully that TA /Fundamentals overview will be useful to some. I would also definitely suggest watching the latest lse.co.uk interview with Mike Buck.
As al