Member Info for Mantasz

This post isn't about asking anyone to buy or sell the stock. These are my thoughts and based on an analysis of the actual investment case along with years of SUCCESSFUL investing.

What we have is a sub £50M mkt cap company with significant assets moving into becoming a producer.

We also have some very exciting exploration prospects and acreage extending into a proven 2 BILLION barrel basin.

Critically and leading into the header for this post, is the Exploitaion Licebse issuance enabling the company to move into monetization of the asset base.

The flipside is

1) No financing package notified to the market as yet.

2) Operational commencement in 2022.

The positive points are fairly obvious and magnitudes of upside potential discussed.

Note: the c28p target utilised a $55bbl oil price and without fully considering the block XX extension associated with the 2 billion barrel proven basin.

Regarding speculation of a funding package essentially agreed in principle is that the Results RNS of late June mentioned that they were hopeful of Operational commencement this year (due to a then improved Covid sotuation) as opposed to a clear reference to 2022 in Mike Buck's interview a couple of months previously.

For the company to have even considered potential operational commencement this year implies an outline funding strategy would have been in place.

Couple that with multiple references to the RESUMPTION of JV talks, which we can reasonably assume the EL issuance being the only outstanding factor needing resolution, all other asset based considerations known.

Against that we obviously have a very bullish backdrop of increasing oil prices and appetite for O&G development.

I dont think it's too difficult to conclude a very near term news announcement on the conclusion of a JV deal to develop Heron AND parallel exploration activity.

That doesnt mean there wont be some additional components of a wider funding package but it's worth noting that we're looking at 'low cost' overall development and the largest shareholder wanting to limit any further dilution.

I think the JVs nailed and we should be hearing news of that shortly with any additional funds either part of a Petrovis backed loan and or limited equity release.

I believe the above to be a very fair and objective assesment of the MATD investment case and why I consider it one of the best, derisked Aim investment for a high multiple ROI from current levels.

JV Announcement next.

Do your own research and invest accordingly.

Absolutely critical news re: the Exploitation License issuance, although some disappointed with the magnitude of the price rise (so far).

I turned my own screen off as price moves at this juncture aren't particularly relevant for my own holding strategy.

Refer to D1nger's excellent posts yesterday, which is the ballpark I'm looking for my ROI to be in.

The Exploitation License is critical to kick off Petro Matad's transformation but just the start.

Operations to realize production & revenues are to be commenced in 2022. No surprise there as Mike Buck stated as much in his recent Lse interview.

What I'm expecting is a JV announcement very shortly and given the RESUMPTION of talks, which would likely have been well advanced and only subject to the actual EL issuance to be concluded. We have that now.

Bear in mind field development is going to be relatively low cost and in a very bullish macro environment for the O&G sector.

We've already had the Petrovis loan and seperate JV talks, so PetroMatad are in a very strong position to negotiate any additional funding.

Some people took their quick 20% (or whatever) today and completely in their right to do so.

In a world of highly speculative Aimstocks though, MATD presents too good an opportunity as a heavily derisked investment, to look elsewhere at the multiple gambles prevalent elsewhere.

I'm very comfortable indeed to retain a very large holding level here for the much bigger ROI going and as the company move to actual revenue generation.

Thereafter dividends or a Takeover.

As mentioned before, I expect inward Institutional investment will also follow suit and result in a steadily rising price comfortably beyond any recent highs, once the volatility has subsided.

Next news the JV announcement imo.

Do your own research and invest accordingly.

Excellent news and majorly derisks the investment going forward now.

Exploitation granted - that was the main development needed and now we have it.

JV talks RESUMING - as we speculated, the company havent been idle and would have proceeded down the road of advancing agreements to be concluded,subject to LICENSE ISSUANCE. Now we have that. News on that soon I suspect.

Operational activity commencing 2022 - confirming what Mike Buck stated in the Lse interview of a couple of months ago so no surprise there.

Parallel exploration on a 2 Billion barrel proven basin.

Petro China development near term news and based on the MOI - again that would be well advanced and agreed upon in principle subject to the EL which we now have.

A very exciting period indeed now and as the company prepare to make that tremendous transition from a pure play non revenue generation outfit to a bona fide producer, with additional high impact, high chance of success exploration operations.

As mentioned we should now see inward investment from larger institutional parties whose investment criteria would be satisfied by the new status of Petro Matad.

The mkt cap comparisons should say it all and why current levels are only a very pale comparison of what we can expect going forward.

Very exciting times now for MATD and its holders.
Btw the 28.7p assumes a $55 Brent price. We're sitting at over $75 atm!!

Factor that into the SP!!

Dr. Simon Beams would disagree with some of the prolific posters here.

I mean, do we listen to a qualified expert in the field or anonymous 'gas' & 'appendage' named posters on this BB?

Compare the respective mkt caps of WSBN & GGP and decide where the bigger potential upside might be.

They both have upside but I prefer the magnitude of the WSBN rise, which should be significant moving into drilling any even before any assay results.

They wouldn't have cleared the licenses if they weren't going to drill.

I think the current drop was more to do with slight Civid related interstate travel restrictions coupled with the low number of shares in issue.

Those restrictions are to be lifted within days anyway.

Once sentiment gets behind this again the low free shares should massively push this up.

Unless of course you want to listen to 'Hydrogen Gas' & 'W*lly' ;)

Perhaps sell up then if you really believe in them ;)

Always makes me chuckle when the conspiracy theories start up, lol

Not sure whether the posters are being serious or mischievous ;)

30 days timeframe for the Minister to sign of the Exploitation License was mentioned before I think. I cant recall where I heard it.

If anyone has a link then please post it.

Just listened to the last video presentation with Mike Buck made even before the latest progress of the EL.

Very confident & strong investment case presented. The first 3 minutes themselves show what we have with the upgraded CPR on Heron, Gazelle and extension into the proven 2 Billion bbl proven basin.

Reaffirms why we have the projected share price expectations as vast multiples of current levels.

Worth a listen to any new, existent or prospective holders and any validation of the header point much appreciated.

https://youtu.be/8lbj0mw-w-E

"All I'm saying is that it's likely that as we still haven't made progress on the EL....."

Read the last few RNSs re: progress made.

"I see the board have missed a critical milestone date without explanation"

Probably as it wasnt a critical milestone date to begin with but a guideline.

The "Why" is to do with the 'minor amendments' that needed to be made.

The application is now with the Mining Ministry for signing off. The very last stage before EL issuance.

Always best to refer to the official communications rather than conpiracy theories or supposed insider info from mates close to the Government lol ;)

I think there's quite a few people referring to the actual fundamental investment case now, so not surprising to see the price bolstering up.

Much better for grown up discussion.

We should get the final stage signing off at any time now.

From what I understand the Minister has been in place for some time and independent of the recent Presidential appointment. Happy to be corrected on the point if inaccurate.

Ditto Ojay on people looking elsewhere if they want to. Not really that complex at all ;)

In the wild west of Aim stocs, good luck to them and especially with the major transformation / shareholder value attached to MATD.

Especially so with all working capital needs already addressed until Q3 2022

I expect the Expoitation Licence RNS to be released shortly, with a full operational overview and quite possibly funding package in place.

We need to remind ourselves perhaps of what we have here. The fu fundamental move to revenue generation AND high chance if success exploration assets.

"We are evaluating the near field potential in the area that could see reserves increase significantly through low cost, high chance of success, exploration drilling conducted in parallel with production and development activities at Heron over the next few years."

MATD shoukd move very hard & rapidly when the RNS hits and I expect followed by wider Institurional buying thereafter.

Some moaning PIs will be long forgotten soon enough ;)

Likewise Bolivian Banks, I enjoy reading your posts and you're obviously a well seasoned investor, as I've noted from your contributions elsewhere.

Mike Buck teasonably expected the EL within Q2 2021 but whether we go slightly over isn't an issue.

What's more important is 'has the EL process been advanced?

Referring to the last few RNSs the answer to that is pretty conclusive. From a few minor amendments to the very final stage of Ministerial signing off.

I recall it being said in one of the recent interviews or presentations / communications that this last stage is a formality now.

All the works been done, the Exploitation Licence WILL be issued and the company can then get on with adding massive shareholder value going forward. Just have a look at the current mkt cap to put things into perspective.

Those focusing on any significance to a day here or there within the EL issuance are naive, imo and in the context of the various stages already advanced through.

There was no line drawn in the sand and the EL WILL BE ISSUED any day now.

Any recent slippage will likely be far overcome just on the opening share price imo.

Make your own (I formed) decisions with your own money.

Why would the price drop off sharply on the 1st of July when the RNS could issue on the 2nd July?

Yes, they mentioned Q2 as a guideline but the key elements are in the detail and the progress through the stages of EL issuance.

All those stages have been passed through and now we're looking at the FINAL ministerial signing off, which should be a formality.

The point I was making in my last post was that it looked like Operations on Heron would be commenced next year but last weeks RNS suggested it could be earlier.

That's a bonus if it happens but either way, the EL will herald a new era for MATD.

The mkt cap should materially increase with a forward looking market looking at eventual revenue from production and derisked through the EL and additional funding /JV newsflow.

I doubt a single day timeline slippage would materially affect the current mkt cap, imo especially as the RNS could drop the very next day as stated.

Some really compelling views to consider in some of the recent posts.

My own view is focused on the fundamental shift of Petro Matad from a pure play exploration outfit into a bona fide revenue generating oil producer.

I expected operational activity and associated revenue generation to commence next year and Mike Buck conceded that may be the case, in his very upbeat interview of a couple of months ago (worth a listen to)

https://youtu.be/8lbj0mw-w-E

However in the recent results, we have the following statement in the light of the Covid vaccine initiative and only waiting the short time necessary for the official ministerial signing off of the Exploitation License.

"in Q2 2021 restrictions were eased and operability appears to be improving. This is encouraging in light of Petro Matad's plans for appraisal and development activity on the Heron oilfield once the Exploitation Licence is in hand."

We also need to bear in mind, we're looking at parallel exploration activity for the extension into Block XX.

"The Company and MRPAM have agreed the area of Block XX that will be retained under the Exploitation Licence when awarded. The Exploitation Area includes the entire extension into Block XX of the proven and producing Toson Uul Basin. This basin contains an estimated 2 BILLION barrels of in place oil in the Petro China operated areas in Block XXI and XIX immediately to the north of Block XX. The agreed Block XX Exploitation Area contains all of the prospectivity identified within the proven basin. Petro Matad will look to undertake near field exploration drilling in this area, in PARALLEL with the development of the Heron oilfield." - RNS 12th April

My own view is that any actual revenue generation this year is a bonus BUT exploratory activity with such a potentially massive upside as indicated, is a very exciting addition to the mix.

The 'no brainer' reference that Bolivian Banks referred to (and which I agree with) is based on an exploratory arm underpinned by a tangable revenue stream being set up, working capital needs covered until Q3 2022 AND a very near term transformational price catalyst by way of the imminant EL issuance.

GGP went from a micro cap to a near $Billion mkt cap without any revenue generation (as far as I'm aware) but with the asset & financing package in place to exploit it.

Its comparing apples & oranges but only mentioned in the context of the positioning & re-rate that we should see with MATD even before actual revenue generation.

Like others I'm looking for the much bigger anticipated upside moving into actual production and the added bonus of the Exploration activity on the Block XX extension area.

Very exciting times for us holders.

@Joulifant Thanks for your post. As you would have noted I always recommend TA as a tool to be used alongside Fundamentals and a persons own independent research. Also that Support /Resistance levels are only as valid as the market respecting them and may need additional confirmation indicators.

I'm careful to include that in my posts.

I've been mostly correct in them over time and the Fundamentals are unchanged. Developments like last weeks Fed interest rate statements can override any TA perspective.

The Uptrend is still in place from the breakout at 3p btw and something I remember calling correctly in my 'ridiculous' posts. Maybe focus on the higher timeframes as I keep mentioning ;)

Hope that helps but if not good luck with your investments regardless. It is your money so I'd expect you to make your own I dependent decisions accordingly.

It's always best to refer to the fundamentals and official company communications.

Relying on emotionally charged bulletin board tantrums or indeed over exuberance, can be misleading. In fairness the vast majority posting here are quite measured in their contributions so the RANTING or RAMPING type posts are easily to spot and relegate to the dust bin.

The last RNS clearly stated the progress with the EL application and we know from previous statements, that the signing off from the Minister is a formality.

We should have the Exploitation License quite literally any day now.

As Bolivian Banks quite aptly stated, this is about as near a 'no brainer' investment as you'll get.

That's terms often used with Aim stocks, many with a vastly greater risk profile despite the assertion. I would again go back to the header and REFER TO THE FUNDAMENTALS.

MATD have an existent asset ready for rapid development / monetization. That'll be tangable recurring & increasing revenues contributing to the balance sheet.

Working capital requirements are already covered until Q3 2022, so it's the Exploitation License that will really start to unlock the inherent value in MATD.

The market will be forward looking to revenue generation and the massive potential of the BlockXX extension area, of the proven & producing Tosun Uul Basin, with an estimated 2 Billlion barrels oil in place in the adjacent Blocks XXI & XIX.

Look at the company's market cap in the context of its transition to a bona fide PRODUCER and EXPLORATION outfit.

Some are asking what the share price may reach on the EL issuance
I'm looking at where I'm anticipating it to be on full field development, with revenues also underpinning some very exciting exploration activity.

Refer to the Fundamentals again on that.

As we know the share price has a tendency for disproportionate moves on relatively low volume so the 4% drop today is pretty irrelevant just as a 4% rise would be.

I'm looking for the eventual rises to levels reflecting multiples of the current Mkt cap which also helps put the emotional meltdowns we see here into perspective.

As always do the research for yourself and refer to the actual investment case.

Todays RNS is better than I expected on several key fronts.

It looks like we'll get actual Heron development this year as opposed to 2022 and with the other parallel ops referred to in the previous RNS. With a background of buoyant oil prices, I'm expecting a very solid finance package to facilitate that, possibly even a further loan from Petrovis along with any JV etc.

We're just waiting for a rubber stamping of the EL now by the Minister, which is just a formality given the real assesments have taken place through the various submission processes (refer to previous RNSs / Interviews).

Very pleased indeed with todays RNS and MATDs transformation towards a bona fide revenue generation Production & exploratory O&G company.

Well done holders.

The Petrovis loan will cover working capital expenditure until Q3 2022 (refer to the RNS).

We should get the capex financing with any JV deals etc announced this year and full Heron development along with parallel exploratory activity in 2022, imo.

As we've said, the EL will unlock value going forward for MATD and open it up to wider institutional investment moving into revenue generation.

A forward looking market should value it well above the current mkt cap against a backdrop of strong oil prices.

Correction to my last post. That should read -

"We saw a slippage below the previous 16.10p support on both the WEEKLY & Daily timeframes and a move below the EMA14 on the daily."

Have to be accurate with this stuff.

@jackthebear I use Tradingview as it's pretty versatile for Charting and with both free & paid for options.