Member Info for Mantasz

https://youtu.be/8lbj0mw-w-E

That recent interview with Mike Buck should give new investors a broad overview of the investment case here.

You'll note Mike Buck mentions the focus on quickly concluding the current JV on EL issuance.

The EL will obviously be the catalyst to open up wider value adding developments for shareholders and provide a higher quality investment vehicle for institutions.

As expected, we saw the picking up of buying momentum again on Friday which reinforces the uptrend in place.

The higher timeframes give a much clearer indication of what's happening and tend to be a lot more reliable.

Theres clear confluence on all key timeframes for a continuation of the underlying trend.

The shorter intraday timeframe has a clear support area at around 7.20p and where others have suggested a large buy order is being filled.

We had the price drops on the 3 consecutive days earlier this week and interestingly on relatively low volumes. Some people picked up on that and the potential at least for manipulation that can occur on the wholesale side of the trade.

It's fairly evident (or extremely likely if you will) that there'll be a supply shortfall soon enough which would explain certain price moves observed but make your own mind up.

We all need to note that no bull move will ever move in a singular trajectory without some pull backs / consolidation. They're actually necessary & a healthy part of stronger subsequent price moves.

Back to the TA we also saw a textbook 0.5 Fibonacci retrace to the 7.2p level. Perhaps the background buyer is basing their own entry off that?

Friday's price closed above the trend line on the daily and above a rising EMA 14 reinforcing the momentum change back upwards.

Integrating the fundamentals the Ftse finished back over 7000 and oil price projections continue to be very bullish.

The Exploitation License for MATD is just the initial (but very important) catalyst that transitions the company into a revenue generating machine able to underpin other very exciting exploratory activity, targeting potentially massive reserves.

The comments about Petrochina not being a potential JV partner due to the prospect of them diverting all the oil to China is invalid. PC is the obvious choice and as indicated at least by Mike Buck with MATDs output subject to conditions of supply to the Mongolian Govt. Goid to hear contrary or other arguments as part of the wider discussion.

A really compelling point someone made re: a further Petrovis finance package to protect their own holding level and underpinned by production revenues. Given the recent working capital loan that may very well be the outcome here.

Ojay the Baillie 2.6% holding g that Imotakeapunt referred to can be found on the Ft.com site.

As always I hope the points raised help as part of wider independent research undertaken by individual investors.

The technical indicators & fundamentals are extremely positive but make your own investment decisions.

Momentum looks like its changing back to the upside again for the next push and as expected.

However will need confirmation of the closing daily & weekly candles which I'll post over the weekend

I'm focused on MATD as my main investment but have a mallet committed holding here (risk v reward based). I can only assume some of the selling after the RNS release was from people having put up automated sells, as we're now anchored to the 14p premium placing level as the safety for an entry & great upside to look forward to from here.
I'll be ignoring any price volatility and will see this through until those assays are in and will only reassess from there.
Good luck all

Price movement as part of an Uptrend as we're seeing with MATD are quite typical.

We get a push upwards, some selling & healthy consolidation and then the next leg of the journey upwards.

We know that scenario is heavily weighted to be realized and based on the actual investment case, which is as strong a one as you're likely to find in the markets.

The risk v reward is exceptional.

What will happen is that some will successfully trade it to a better position while others will more than likely be caught out by a huge momentum candle reflecting another strong surge upwards as buyers re-enter en masse.

We can already see the selling momentum diminishing on the last few succesive days and I expect we'll see the engulfing candle shortly.

The higher TA timeframes are more conclusive for price movement than the very short ones and those are still very firmly bullish as part of the Uptrend in place.

I'll post a more detailed TA analysis over the weekend and including the closing of the weekly.

Refer to the underlying investment case, dyor & make your own investment decisions.

There's been some discussion on buy v sell volumes and price movements.

Arrive at your own conclusions but I did a few dummy Buy & Sells early Tuesday morning when the price was showing arnd 1.7% down.

I could easily do a dummy sell for 300k shares but couldn't even pick up 30k worth. The MMs wanted stock.

This was over the course of around 30 mins but no movement of the price into positive territory and considering the shortage of stock over that period.

Again, people can come to their own conclusions and based on the not too difficult to ascertain supply shortfall that'll be leading into & post EL.

My own stock is being securely held and beyond any market manipulation occurring in preparedness for that major demand upsurge.

What happens in the meantime is certain informed parties covering their interests imo.

Make your own decisions. It's your money.

Backing up what I posted last night re: near term projection into double figures and pushing to challenge the 32.5p resistance soon.

I bought 101,556 shares @8.4988p around 08.50ish this morning for £8639.

That's my additional stock, averaging up and based on my own extensive research.

Dyor & make your own decisions. It's your money.

I usually post an TA /Fundamental perspective on MATD (click my username if you want info on that) but decided to do a singular one for SYME.

I hope it contributes to a better understanding of current price action but dyor as always.

TA - We now have timescale confluence on all the main timeframes, which greatly mitigates risks associated with an entry.

The Daily showed a long downward wick hammer candle on Thursday, with a break above the downward trend line.

We also had a descending wedge, again bullish and multiple rejections of the 0.3508 support.

Friday saw a huge bullish momentum candle and the upward push of the EMA14, as well as crucially, the strong break of the 0.398p resistance.

I bought in at 8am Friday off Thursdays hammer candle and break of the trend line. Greater confirmation has now been provided by Fridays closing candle, break of resistance and now clear path to the next resistance level at 0.5704p.

Integrating the fundamentals into the larger picture, we dont have much to go by. There's certainly enormous potential but we need more I formation and bonafide traction on revenues beyond those indicated.

However SYME is a compelling investment accepting it's highly speculative nature and underpinned by the strong TA projections for a move from the established 0.35p support.

I hope the above analysis may contribute something to a wider, independent research I initiative by individual investors /potential investors.

Technical Viewpoint - I wanted to see the closing weekly & daily candles, to give an accurate TA assesment.

We have strong confluence on all the Monthly, Weekly & Daily charts that underpin the price trajectory upwards.

Specifically, I was looking for the pullback testing the 8.06p resistance, which happened intraday Thursday and to a more pro bounced degree on Friday - all whilst wider markets were significantly down.

This sets up a very strong platform for a continuation of the price trajectory, as the previous resistance now becomes support, enabling the process to now challenge the next resistance area around the 12.68p level.

Thereafter a clear area to 32.74p mirroring a similar such trajectory in 2017.

The price also comfortably above the EMA50 & 14 reinforcing expectation for the above price development.

Integrating the fundamentals, we've already seen how the mkt cap at that price level is comfortably attained and not factoring in any exploratory activity.

As we know, we're moving closer to the Exploitation License issuance, which should feed into positive sentiment going forward and also well founded expectations of a Farm in announcement at the same time or soon thereafter.

I'm only anticipating posting once a week, to give people an unbiased TA / Fundamental analysis of the stock. I hope it helps some as part of their own independent investment analysis.

I've also followed the obvious chart /fundamentals outlook by purchasing more stock on Thursday, which was posted.

It's really important to note that the fast track development & monetization of Heron will be done in PARALLEL with the exploratory activity of Block XX, with indications of a potential 2 Billion barrel resource.

That may put into clearer perspective the current price level and the Heron development only that should have some sentiment feed through of Block XX exploration, independent of any actual discovery.

Refer to D1nger's posts on successful exploration upside, as I'm focused primarily on the 30-70p target I'm expecting in the coming few months (reasoning previously provided).

Dyor & make your own investment decision.

Referring to pullbacks from a TA perspective, we've already had one, with an intraday push past the 8.06p resistance.

We then had the pullback, test & strong buying at that levelwhich was welcome and sets up nicely for a bullish push to test the next resistance level at 12.65p and as the previous 8.06p resistance becomes support.

Thereafter we have a clear run from a TA perspective to 32.74p and similar to the price trajectories seen previously in 2017.

I'll need the weekly candle closing to get greater confirmation.

Integration of the fundamentals more clearly demonstrates why we can expect such price projections and as MATD position themselves to transition from explorer to a bona fide, revenue generating producer in a bull oil market.

This is in parallel to the exploratory activity targeting a potential 2Bn barrels, in parallel to fast track monetization of the existent Heron asset to underpin exportation activity & mkt cap appreciation.

As I've mentioned previously current price levels aren't really of any great interest with the larger picture playing out & timeframe confluence indicating the much higher price levels.

Dyor, it's your money

I wasent going to post until the weekend and the closing of the weekly candle but thought I'd remind newer holders of the S/R levels in place.

We've had the convincing demolition of the 6p resistance and and now have an unobstructed path towards the 8.06p and 12.65p levels.

Integrating the fundamentals underpinning the investment & limited 'free shares' in issue, I d expect them to be convincingly breached also, going forward. Even a very conservative valuation supports that projection beyond those levels.

The next clear resistance level beyond that would be at 32.74p which the price rapidly pushed through around Mar 2017. Somewhat less shares in issue but no Heron discovery, block XX parallel exploration strategy with Heron monetisation etc.

MATD is set to ho much higher and supported by both TA, Fundamentals & a very buoyant oil price.
Block XX with a 2Bn barrel potential!

Do your own research. Its your money

This is just the BEGINNING. Do your research and that becomes blatantly obvious.

We know the EL will be issued shortly as well as any updates.

The TA shows clear rejection of the 6p resistance, which will almost certainly get broken through in due course. A couple of further resistance levels around 8.10p & 12.7p, which I expect will see the same breach, then a clear path to around 32p.

That's the TA side of it but what I think or it suggests will be confirmed or not in actual price action, so let's wait & see.

As I mentioned in a previous post, I expect we'll soon be looking forward towards that 30p+ region rather than backwards at fractions of the 5-6p range.

Many lower entry traders have exited with new buyer momentum building up with entries around current levels and setting up for the push breaking out of the lower resistance levels.

Every day takes us closer to the EL issuance and any updates relating to it. Mike Buck has learned his lessons about keeping shareholders better informed.

The £200m mkt cap at around 30p+ will comfortably be justified as MATAD transition into a bona fide revenue generating producer and factoring in (some) potential for parallel exploratory operations.

As the earlier RNS states;

"The Exploitation Area includes the entire extension into Block XX of the proven and producing Toson Uul Basin. This basin contains an estimated 2 billion barrels of in place oil in the Petro China operated areas in Block XXI and XIX immediately to the north of Block XX. The agreed Block XX Exploitation Area contains all of the prospectivity identified within the proven basin. Petro Matad will look to undertake near field exploration drilling in this area, in parallel with the development of the Heron oilfield."

I expect Petrochina will be the JV partner in that for obvious reasons.

All that again a backdrop of bullish oil prices and a renewed appetite for oil investing and linking into RBL facilities as part of a larger fu ding package.

MATD are a uniquely positioned now and for very obvious reasons to those researched I to the stock.

My price expectations in the next couple of months dont factor in actual discoveries from exploration activity. Only the move into Heron development & the parallel exploratory a activities.

I expect we'll be omewhere into the 30-50p before that becomes the (main) focus of debate here but you can reference D1nger's excellent dive into that if you so wish.

I'll probably only post again after the next weekly candle has formed. I dont intend to derisk until we move well into Heron development and parallel exploration, so everything else happening here in the meantime is interesting but nothing more.

Dyor please, it's your money.

Mike Bucks confident in the timeframe for a reason and good to hear all being sorted out virtually.

Thanks for the update on the expo Jimi.

Todays RNS reinforces the company making RNS shortly.

Jimi.that's why the Expo isn't factored into my investment case in any way. However I think it was the 2020 one that was cancelled. The 2021 is still going ahead as far as I know but happy to be corrected. If it is it should have extra focus given the upbeat wider economic situation

Getting closer to the EL rns every day whatever happens.

Clock ticking is something to note and leading to D1nger's points. Spot on post btw and totally agree too Ojay.

Bringing in macro factors Fitch just published their highly respected oil price forecasts and along with the overwhelming wider consensus prices are heading upwards.

This is something to note when we're looking at MATD going forward and discussing SP projections.

We HAVE oil and we WILL get the Exploitation License. That's pretty much a given as D1nger states.

Some people have mentioned dilution but bear in mind, any such part of a wider financial will be to monetise the asset towards revenue production. It's wont be for working capital needs which Petrovis have already addressed with their loan. That's going to be price accretive.

Any package will likely be composed of RBL, Farm out & possible equity issuance. Bear in mind the macro environment of bullish oil prices and the greater appetite for RBL & Farm out activity off that.

With the significance of the EL in pushing MATD I to rapid monetization of assets, closing any Farm in deals and feeding into / underpinning further exploration of potentially massive assets, we can see why the major Re-rate is pretty much dialed in going forward.

MATD is transitioning into bei g a revenue generating oil producer in a bull oil market environment and with a clear strategy for growth already in place.

With only a £35M mkt cap and less than 700m shares in place, theres very good reason indeed to be highly confident of share price appreciation going forward.

The TA on the main Monthky, Weekly & Daily timeframes all show a high degree of confluence to the upside, with many traders at lower entries now out with profits and newer buyers moving in.

We saw it go pretty rapidly from around 3p to 33p in 2017 and with no secure monetization in place, even with about half the share issuance.

Now we have a very solid base to see it go much higher and within a relatively short timeframe (the Mining conference doesnt factor into my investment case in any way - it would be a nice development though Jimi ;) ).

I'm confident due to the many multiple factors tying in to the upside but everyone needs to do their own research and invest on that.

I believe we'll be looking towards that mid 30p level again soon enough and not be concerning ourselves with 'fractions of 5p profit' and the dangers of another aggressive breakout on the sidelines.

Good to see MATD positioned for that Re-rate.

Ojay,

The previous post was discussing the price move expectations in the context of the EL being issued.

I could add to that I dont think any of us expect the price to be in the 5-6p range closing into the Q2 timeline either.

As you say all the points made are pretty mu h a accepted so you can make your own investment decisions off that.

The EL being issued or not and has it's own arguments attached.

As we know and has been discussed MATD are viewed as a effectively a domestic company with the highly established and I influential Petrovis their largest shareholder.

The Mongolian Govt have a new $billion refinery that needs raw material and MATD have been identified in that regard.

The are also looking to encourage inward investment across the board.

We're now moving into a vaccine dominant, post Covid economic environment without the previous beauracratic delays and probably why Mike Buck looked confident in his 'within Q2' timeframe as opposed to the previous 'we weren't laughed out of the room's

Like others I think he'll have given himself comfortable leeway in that.

If you think pointing out such relevant facts or giving integrated Fundamental /TA based opinions on a discussion forum is ramping then that's your opinion.

I hope the insights presented can help some of those looking in as part of a wider researched approach to MATD.

Make your own decisions.

Good luck

You wont be able to just get in so easily 'before the rise happens'.

The RNS will hit and itll open well up at 8am. Then you'll probably find it really difficult to pick up ANY stock as everyone will be trying for the same thing.

You'll probably get sure durations of liquidity intraday as some will take profits but others will still be trying to pick up stock or increase holdings with the bigger price projections now coming into play.

There'll also be expectations of imminant Farm in news which will be galvanised on EL confirmation with talks already ongoing.

People will more likely be looking towards the 30p+ price resistance levels rather than backwards at single digit prices.

That's what I see as the real eventuality of waiting for the RNS issuance and trying to pick up stock at the time but each to their own approach.

Good luck

The pullback and convincing rejection of the 5.10p (area) was what I was looking out for and increased my holding off that integrating other TA indicators & fundamentals.

A buy yesterday at 5.085p and another 300k shares picked up today at 5.15p (12:50:44 - showd in red but a buy for £15.45K).

Very confident in my buys now that we've had the pullback to test the 5.10p level and strong confirmation of that support with confluence on all the main timeframes.

Progressing within the Q2 timeframe against a strong economic backdrop and setting up for the multiple rises indicated.

If anyone thinks this stock is a p&d and with such limited posting then please dont buy. The reality is that it's well under the radar atm and with a fairly restricted free float of stock.

Specifically we have an unobstructed path towards the 8.06p and 12.65p levels.

The next clear resistance level beyond that would be at 32.74p which the price reached around Mar 2017. Less shares in issue but no Heron discovery. Still only a limited free float of shares as anyone trying to pick stock up will know.

Playng out exactly as I expected with a strong rejection of the 5.10p area and buying kicking in.

The necessary pull back to that level the support and sets up nicely for the price to push up to test the higher resistance levels.

Good confluence on the higher Monthly & Weekly timeframes now supported by the Daily.

Next move should see us pushing up solidly from these levels. Refer to my other posts on S/R levels.

Make your own decisions