RE: Takeover candidates23 Aug 2022 13:16
Here's the math I like to use:
90 million cars approximately made new every year
At least HALF in the countries that will soon require DMS, most of the others will want it soon enough.
About half of those "won" by SEE (up from a third)
Not all will pay for the feature... so I am assuming a nice round 10 million units (of FOVIO or the other methods)- this is conservative, do you agree?
I wish they'd share this with us but I would be disappointed if they're not getting at least $10, probably $15 per car. This probably falls with higher volumes.
Result: $150M in high-margin revenue from auto alone!
Today's environment is different but Intel bought Mobileye st a multiple of OVER 20x revenues.
It only takes an 8x multiple to get to $1 Billion for just the auto piece. Fleet is profitable and aviation is blue sky and Caterpillar license is probably worth $50M+
The bummer is this thing trades on the AIM, has unresponsive investor relations, and is therefore still either undiscovered or uninvestable (for most institutions). In my humble opinion.
All that said, it's my largest position.
Oh, buyers are probably Qualcomm, Xilinx (AMD), Magna or who bought Veoneer? Maybe Cruise but they do not have deep pockets. Lastly, private equity loves annuities and that industry has tens of billions sloshing around. I'm actually surprised but relieved we didn't merger with a SPAC!
Good luck all!