The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Main reason we need to dual-list or change exchange listing: this Bloomberg article this morning among many others
`Uninvestable’ UK?
The UK government took another blow overnight as Fitch Ratings became the latest firm to lower the sovereign’s credit outlook, citing “the large fiscal stimulus, announced without compensatory measures or an independent evaluation of the macroeconomic and public finances’ impact.” The nation's markets are feeling the pain too, with a wild first month for Liz Truss’s administration seeing at least £300 billion wiped from the combined value of the nation’s stock and bond markets. Worse could be to come, with gilts facing a potential “cliff edge” when the Bank of England exits the market at the end of next week. Gloom appears to be growing by the day. ‘The feedback we got from investors is that they consider the UK uninvestable as long as there is such government chaos,’’ Liberum Cpaital Ltd. strategist Joachim Klement said.
This answers the most important fundamental question I had going into this meeting/future. The news is materially positive in that SM will not need to sell one more share below 11p ever again. It will take a little time but this price should serve as somewhat of a floor, in my view.
So about a third of the company is effectively selling at 11p (this convertible as well as the last offering at 11p), Hopefully the rest of the company sells for more than 50p! Average out and Magna makes a killing and we as a company make it to the stage where we can sell for 8-12× sales or $2B-$3B.
My wish list for October 7 is for
1) some news on a dual-listing
2) market share details
3) aviation license
4) confirmation of big design wins
I used to track and estimate the Fleet installed base by inputting the counters' figures on the same day at the same exact time (set an alarm for every Friday at noon GMT). It used to do a great job, I could even pick up holidays and bad weather in Australia. I stopped doing it after a few weeks worth of nearly identical average/hour readings... they overhauled the website and appeared to replace a real counter with a simulated (linear) counter. Is it back to variable again?
Completely agree soulboy! My average basis is a "double" from current prices. Let's first get back to the last issuance price of 11p before thinking about next levels... but I do think $1B US will be a reasonable starting point. VS and/or Magna likely have ROFRs or something similar? So hopefully we're looking at a minimum of 3 motivated strategic buyers!
The ONLY answer needed on Friday: Can SEE make it to cash flow positive without additional (likely highly dilutive) capital?
John: Are these posts / patents implying SEE is well positioned from an intellectual property standpoint? Or are these signs that it has competition from the 800 pound gorilla(s)? Because, to me, they all kind of read the same and I'm unsure if they are going to likely result in license payments or are a work around to SEE's moat. Thanks for adding color/ interpretation in the future if possible :)
Soulboy said it so well! And there is no denying that I'm still bitter about Ken selling half the company in a firesale! I suppose the rebuttal would be "we survived."
Anyway. It's now time to thrive, I'd say.
Today, I firmly believe that all the company has to say or write is that they have high confidence and high visibility into making it to "cash flow positive" WITHOUT ANY ADDITIONAL CAPITAL. I'm glad they didn't SPAC or sell backed into a corner. This company deserves and justifies at least $1B USD market cap given the dogs remaining out there at even higher values.
The transparency discount is approaching 70% today, I'd argue.
Good luck next week - to whomever is planning to attend in person. Thank you in advance for being the fire under management's seat!
Codfish has way too many typos and personal digs to be a thoughtful unbiased investor. How do we block people? I initially didn't want to subject myself to confirmation bias, but am now relatively confident he or she brings no critical facts to the discussions. Just noise, no signal.
That was really good. I'm not sure what it meant, nor what inspired you to "create" it, but bravo indeed. The share price is incredibly frustrating, but I believe it's increasing the likelihood that the company more seriously considers structural remedies: starting with listing on a better exchange (dual benefits of liquidity and now currency stability). Even fish pies know that very little revenue is earned in pounds... most in USD actually.
Plus a side benefit would obviously be "fewer anthems."
2% churn is pretty incredible, as you all know it turns hardware sales into recurring revenue.
They charge roughly $50 per month per unit. And I was pretty sure they make money on this. I thought $10-$20 net? But I stand to be corrected.
I agree hardware sales are tough... but SEE will soon be at a 50,000×50×12=30M run rate ($6M net profit, assuming $10/mo) in monitoring services... and growing. That's worth $200M in market cap alone, in my view.
Your models make sense, and do seem well reasoned. I am highly confident aviation will be additive, and other royalties likely will be too. And those are nearly pure profit.
This is just a really tough tape. Proximity to geopolitical turmoil not helping. My only wish for Christmas is that Paul convinces the public that they have the capital to get to cash flow positive.
ALL OF THAT PUMPING by SmartEye and the stock is now down... btw, the Swedish research firm Redeye is a real hired-hack!?
Patience is a virtue. ColdFishPie is worth listening to because you never know what you can learn from the "outside view." Nonetheless s/he seems blindly biased for an unknown reason.
I personally trust management and the Board. I also genuinely enjoy the DMS in my car that is believed to be powered by Seeing Machines. People are going to want this, and be willing to pay for it!
Good luck all... Seeing Machine's management is extremely conservative and humble - perhaps the opposite of SmartEye. We're invested in the best company!
Side note, Mobileye valuation discussion suggesting SM could be a 5-bagger (or more) within the next four years.
My 2022 Mach-e is a genuine pleasure to drive... I'm bummed that it will feel a bit obsolete already with the lane change update missing. Hands-free doesn't necessarily make me safer, but it is a feature I WILL absolutely pay for after my lease expires AND will require in future car purchases... SM's DMS (pretty sure it's theirs) DOES make me feel safer and is not annoying at all - it really is a perfect nudge to keep drivers focused on the life and death task also known as driving.
RIP QE2 - such a cool and special world leader!
20 USD, 20 AUD, or 20 GBP !? Another unnecessary complication to the SEE story ;)
Most Tech Hardware companies disclose this data ("average seeking price") - I am seriously of the mind that this is one of the most important questions to get an answer to at the London meeting... fingers crossed
I read somewhere recently that Ford is hoping to sell 125k EVs in 2022 and 300k EVs in 2023. I'd say all of those should be ours. I don't know how many ICEs with Blue Cruise will be activated. But yeah, I think we're getting close to having visibility to "million of units" which hopefully means "tens of millions of dollars" ?!
? Will the company need any additional capital to get to cash flow positive? Does Magna or VS have right of first refusal if an acquisition offer is made? Are there plans in place for non-dilutive funding if necessary?
? Is the company planning to uplist to a more liquid/transparent exchange? If so how soon? If not, why not?
? What is the average revenue per auto, truck, train, stimulator, and/or plane? Is the profit per month per fleet monitoring install still about $30? What's the total size of each respective market in terms of units (existing base and annual production)?
? Compare/ contrast SEE technology with SmartEye and Cipia
? Chip shortage and supply disruptions and COVID had what negative effects? And what percent still lingers?
The rest of those questions are good too!
This is great info! Does the counter seem to be back to reporting actual kilometers? Because I tracked this for years after it first appeared on the website and built a pretty accurate predictive model of the installed base... But then stopped after they modified it into essentially a linear time-based counter. Your numbers, if taken at the same precise time every day, suggest they might NOT be stimulated any longer and therefore possibly useful at predicting again?
Anyone?
I can't even tell anymore what you guys/girls are saying. Sarcasm is admittedly easy when talking about this company. All I know is that it's highly likely that 100K Ford EVs will be sold this year. Maybe 15k last year? 300k next year. That's probably $5 million right there. And that's only the EVs with BlueCruise. Cadillac maybe as much. GM similar. Many others. We're on the cusp of the hockey stick for automotive revenue.
The board of directors definitely sucks relative to the best, but we're still kicking. Though I still can't believe Ken sold half the company at a 50% discount years ago. At least Paul sold a big chunk of stock at 11 pence...
Cheers to fiscal 2023. I think we're close to the pot at the end of the rainbow.
The only reason, that I can see, for why more Institutions are not pulling in is the fact that this stock trades on the AIMx essentially by appointment!? If it listed or IPO'd onto NASDAQ I believe almost every small cap growth investment manager in the US would be interested.
Here's the math I like to use:
90 million cars approximately made new every year
At least HALF in the countries that will soon require DMS, most of the others will want it soon enough.
About half of those "won" by SEE (up from a third)
Not all will pay for the feature... so I am assuming a nice round 10 million units (of FOVIO or the other methods)- this is conservative, do you agree?
I wish they'd share this with us but I would be disappointed if they're not getting at least $10, probably $15 per car. This probably falls with higher volumes.
Result: $150M in high-margin revenue from auto alone!
Today's environment is different but Intel bought Mobileye st a multiple of OVER 20x revenues.
It only takes an 8x multiple to get to $1 Billion for just the auto piece. Fleet is profitable and aviation is blue sky and Caterpillar license is probably worth $50M+
The bummer is this thing trades on the AIM, has unresponsive investor relations, and is therefore still either undiscovered or uninvestable (for most institutions). In my humble opinion.
All that said, it's my largest position.
Oh, buyers are probably Qualcomm, Xilinx (AMD), Magna or who bought Veoneer? Maybe Cruise but they do not have deep pockets. Lastly, private equity loves annuities and that industry has tens of billions sloshing around. I'm actually surprised but relieved we didn't merger with a SPAC!
Good luck all!