Member Info for MAJOREM

Federated Hermes is a HUGE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR with a very impressive track record in the fund that owns most of the shares...

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CIPIA:IT

In addition ot SmartEye's stock trading in the toilet... CIPIA seems to be near its bottom too. It appears that NONE of Seeing Machines' public competitors are showing signs of success?

There was a crazy time not that long ago that SmartEye was worth more to the "market" than Seeing Machines. It was during this time that I accumulated the majority of my holdings.

Admittedly I underestimated the likelihood that that error in the market's scale would be corrected by SmartEye simply falling (all else equal).

I look forward to SEE pulling further away from its competitors!

Today:
SmartEye market cap in USD is $143 million.
Seeing Machines' is $340 million
Cipia's market cap in USD is less than $22 million!

The good news is the "final" or optional $17.5m portion of the preferred wouldn't be needed. So less potential/total dilution.

My guess would be $30 million (+/- $10) USD over three years... plus volume royalties

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/seeing-machines-and-caterpillar-sign-global-agreement-for-product-development-licensing-and-distribution-300142076.html

Bigger than the CAT deal for sure. Plus inflation.

I'm doing my part buying a little more... ;)

Maybe VS selling a chunk since Magna driving the bus now?

Hopefully they learned their lesson(s) with Takata... :(

Of course over-promotional SmartEye CEO presents (with Redeye's help) at the same time as our town hall... that company is desperate. Then again we need at least two players for OEMs to feel "safe" ...

I'm glad I don't own stock in Gentex, don't they do mirrors too? And heated/cooled seats I think? Magna deal is huge. Trading on the AIM makes is like we are screaming into a hurricane...

Good point. My quick math was: The last $41 million USD was raised at 11p. I thought the company was worth around $350M then (so 11.6% of company). This current $47.5M max preferred is on a pre-announcement market capitalization of about $240M (~20%). Add them together and about 1/3, but I agree this is probably a little high.

It's certainly better than Ken selling HALF the company at 3 pence when he could have sold the entire thing for $1B around the time GM bought Cruise for that much and they were trying to capitalize the auto group separately.

Regardless, I'm pleased with this structure and am relieved they likely have put in a floor to the stock price?

Main reason we need to dual-list or change exchange listing: this Bloomberg article this morning among many others

`Uninvestable’ UK?
The UK government took another blow overnight as Fitch Ratings became the latest firm to lower the sovereign’s credit outlook, citing “the large fiscal stimulus, announced without compensatory measures or an independent evaluation of the macroeconomic and public finances’ impact.” The nation's markets are feeling the pain too, with a wild first month for Liz Truss’s administration seeing at least £300 billion wiped from the combined value of the nation’s stock and bond markets. Worse could be to come, with gilts facing a potential “cliff edge” when the Bank of England exits the market at the end of next week. Gloom appears to be growing by the day. ‘The feedback we got from investors is that they consider the UK uninvestable as long as there is such government chaos,’’ Liberum Cpaital Ltd. strategist Joachim Klement said.

This answers the most important fundamental question I had going into this meeting/future. The news is materially positive in that SM will not need to sell one more share below 11p ever again. It will take a little time but this price should serve as somewhat of a floor, in my view.

So about a third of the company is effectively selling at 11p (this convertible as well as the last offering at 11p), Hopefully the rest of the company sells for more than 50p! Average out and Magna makes a killing and we as a company make it to the stage where we can sell for 8-12× sales or $2B-$3B.

My wish list for October 7 is for
1) some news on a dual-listing
2) market share details
3) aviation license
4) confirmation of big design wins

I used to track and estimate the Fleet installed base by inputting the counters' figures on the same day at the same exact time (set an alarm for every Friday at noon GMT). It used to do a great job, I could even pick up holidays and bad weather in Australia. I stopped doing it after a few weeks worth of nearly identical average/hour readings... they overhauled the website and appeared to replace a real counter with a simulated (linear) counter. Is it back to variable again?

Completely agree soulboy! My average basis is a "double" from current prices. Let's first get back to the last issuance price of 11p before thinking about next levels... but I do think $1B US will be a reasonable starting point. VS and/or Magna likely have ROFRs or something similar? So hopefully we're looking at a minimum of 3 motivated strategic buyers!

The ONLY answer needed on Friday: Can SEE make it to cash flow positive without additional (likely highly dilutive) capital?

John: Are these posts / patents implying SEE is well positioned from an intellectual property standpoint? Or are these signs that it has competition from the 800 pound gorilla(s)? Because, to me, they all kind of read the same and I'm unsure if they are going to likely result in license payments or are a work around to SEE's moat. Thanks for adding color/ interpretation in the future if possible :)

Soulboy said it so well! And there is no denying that I'm still bitter about Ken selling half the company in a firesale! I suppose the rebuttal would be "we survived."
Anyway. It's now time to thrive, I'd say.
Today, I firmly believe that all the company has to say or write is that they have high confidence and high visibility into making it to "cash flow positive" WITHOUT ANY ADDITIONAL CAPITAL. I'm glad they didn't SPAC or sell backed into a corner. This company deserves and justifies at least $1B USD market cap given the dogs remaining out there at even higher values.
The transparency discount is approaching 70% today, I'd argue.
Good luck next week - to whomever is planning to attend in person. Thank you in advance for being the fire under management's seat!

Codfish has way too many typos and personal digs to be a thoughtful unbiased investor. How do we block people? I initially didn't want to subject myself to confirmation bias, but am now relatively confident he or she brings no critical facts to the discussions. Just noise, no signal.

That was really good. I'm not sure what it meant, nor what inspired you to "create" it, but bravo indeed. The share price is incredibly frustrating, but I believe it's increasing the likelihood that the company more seriously considers structural remedies: starting with listing on a better exchange (dual benefits of liquidity and now currency stability). Even fish pies know that very little revenue is earned in pounds... most in USD actually.
Plus a side benefit would obviously be "fewer anthems."

2% churn is pretty incredible, as you all know it turns hardware sales into recurring revenue.

They charge roughly $50 per month per unit. And I was pretty sure they make money on this. I thought $10-$20 net? But I stand to be corrected.

I agree hardware sales are tough... but SEE will soon be at a 50,000×50×12=30M run rate ($6M net profit, assuming $10/mo) in monitoring services... and growing. That's worth $200M in market cap alone, in my view.

Your models make sense, and do seem well reasoned. I am highly confident aviation will be additive, and other royalties likely will be too. And those are nearly pure profit.

This is just a really tough tape. Proximity to geopolitical turmoil not helping. My only wish for Christmas is that Paul convinces the public that they have the capital to get to cash flow positive.