Member Info for MAJOREM

The ironic thing is that there is a high probability that IF the price ever gets above 13p again, it is on its way to a much higher terminal price. I do not know if I will have the "diamond hands" necessary to hold much above that level.

My personal price target if you use $8 per car gets you north of 50p sometime during 2027. I've been investing for 30 years now and have watched many of my investments become 10-baggers AFTER my exit. I honestly will need to sell chunks along the way but really do see s credible path to a really high share price. There are now probably too many shares for the market to ever value us at a pound, but half of one very reasonable it will just take a few years of executing...

GLA

One more point that I keep in back of mind... I was buying SEE aggressively when SmartEye had a greater market capitalization than SEE. Today, SEE market cap is nearly double that of SmartEye. This is the market "weighing" the two. I think if SEYE expects to be a multi-bagger, it's logical to conclude that SEE COULD BE A MULTI-MULTI-BAGGER.

Time will tell. I am secretly excited to watch our industry (and favorite DMS company) grow through this upcoming global recession.

This is probably one of the top-3 most important UNKNOWNS for Seeing Machines. Is Qualcomm a friend or foe? It would be very helpful to better understand the potential with QCOM and risks of them becoming a foe.
Over the years I've heard a lot of chip players mentioned alongside SEE: Qualcomm, Intel, Xilinx, Ambarella, Omnivison, recently Mobileye. I'm surely missing some but also don't understand who's good or bad or exclusive or temporary or future competitors etc.

I remain optimistic. Accumulated a little more around 6.3p. I still think 11p should be a "magnet" for the price - if not for all this macro stress

The way this probably ends up happening is in conjunction with an IPO on NASDAQ. Old shares can become new shares at a specific conversion ratio. Yours is a good start: 1 for 10 (or 20) shares, then IPO at some number over $10/ share. Then hopefully next stop = the moon.

From a research note on MBLY:

SuperVision Update: SuperVision has gained design wins into 6-7 auto makers, nine brands, and management feels good about volume doubling in 2023 supported by growth from Zeeker and two more Geely brands in the second half this year. Progress appears to be tracking well, and we came away with the impression that the business will drive upside in longer term models. Chauffer (~$6,000 ASP), which is an eyes-off system that can be added to current SuperVision Customers is being discussed in virtually every SV discussion as customers are looking to include scope for follow-on Chauffer solutions.

11p

I still like our horse infinitely more in this DMS race...

Does this mean we're out? Or still in?

MGA’s acquisition of Veoneer’s ADAS business is more than just a hardware/engineering bolt-on. We see value in a trusted hardware integrator to provide a ‘path’ into the car for software/advanced silicon players (Apple, MBLY, etc.). In the battle for autonomy, there’s value in being ‘Switzerland.’

This morning, MGA announced the acquisition of Veoneer Active Safety business from SSW Partners.

We (Morgan Stanley) offer key thoughts below:

Transaction Details: MGA will acquire Veoneer Active Safety from SSW Partners for $1.525bn in cash, with the deal expected by the company to close near mid-year 2023. The transaction will be funded with cash on hand, and a modest amount of additional debt with MGA expecting no significant change in leverage profile or financial flexibility. The company expects the deal to be neutral to adjusted EPS in 2024 (first full year of integration), with $70mn+ of anticipated annual synergies by 2025 across key areas of procurement, SG&A, and development activities.

What technologies does MGA get from the acquisition? Veoneer Active Safety technology includes radar systems, camera systems, domain controllers, and driver monitoring. These technologies not only compliment some of MGA's existing offerings, but also increases areas of the car in which MGA can compete, increasing CPV opportunities and becoming even more of a 'one-stop shop' for OEMs ADAS needs.

Financials: MGA expects Veoneer Active Safety sales to be approximately $1.1bn in 2022,growing to $1.9bn by 2024. Pro-forma with MGA's existing business, MGA expects approximately $3bn in MGA Electronics revenue in 2024. Based on the revenue forecasts provided by MGA, they paid ~0.8x FY24 sales for a business growing at >30% on the top line and that is expected to be EBITDA positive in FY23. Pro-forma leverage for MGA should remain near 1x (FY23) assuming Veoneer ADAS slightly EBITDA positive and no synergies.

How does the acquisition fit within MGA? Consistent with the company's own statement, we view the acquisition of Veoneer Active Safety as in line with MGA's Go-Forward strategy, focusing on investments in high-growth areas. The deal should strengthen MGA's existing ADAS sensor and full system capabilities, while also adding significant resources (2.2k engineers, including 1.8k for systems, software and sensor development).

Our View: While we look for more details around the financial profile of Veoneer Active Safety closer to/upon closing of the deal, we believe MGA is well positioned to play 'Switzerland' in the ADAS/Connected Car battle that will play out over the coming decade and believe this acquisition fits well into that strategy.

Jan 7.2p
Dec 11.5p
End of 2024 20p+

That Berenberg firm is laying off so many - fingers crossed we don't lose one of our few sell-side analysts. Then again, they're not much of a driver in shares anyway...

Apple using LG which partners with Magna, right?

Do most trade commission free in the UK? Because buying 4000 shares at 6.4p would cost just £250 or so. Commission of any more than a pound or two would be punitive. Buying shares overseas from the US costs me a minimum of $50 and a maximum of 0.75% of the value!

Somebody woke up on the wrong side of the bed!? I appreciated the post.

Very well said! Clicking the recommend button wasn't enough ;)

In case anyone is curious, I aggregated the total volume of shares since November 11's 209 million share day... and guess what!? It adds up to 71.8 million. So... my guess is that we've worked through most if not all the overhang (surely some double counting, but also some work was done on that day too), the market maker made his/her big bonus (about a pence spread), and I reinstate my view that 11p will be a near-term magnet. Plus, it shouldn't see a 5-handle ever again (unless it's 2026 an it's trading at 50p or £5!

I'm now of the mind that until the "gap shares" (difference between volume sold and bought at 5.5p that day in November) resulting from Lombard's transactions are digested, there's someone out there with gobs of shares recently acquired at 5.5p that can be sold at a quick gain/profit before Christmas for what is currently still a profit of about 15%... hopefully it doesn't get all the way back there, but I'm now not going to be surprised if it sees a 5-handle before an 11-handle. I can wait but it is frustrating how little the company cares about its stock price. I've accumulated since 2014 and will continue to hold... Did anyone have any thoughts on my Cerence post?

I'm curious about your collective thoughts on SEE vs Cerence? Cerence just had what seems to be okay fundamental results and a very successful "investor day" - stock tanked on earnings before rising nearly 50% from that intra day low. They have a market cap of about $820M (down from a Feb-2021 peak of just over $5BILLION). Revenues expected to be about $300M in 2023 (EBITDA of $33M) ramping to $490M in 2026 (EBITDA of $170M). All figures in USD.

Thanks for your perspective(s)...

Please contact the company to offer help. I'm no longer convinced Sophie is up to the task. So nice. But nearly zero outreach effort. 100% reactive.

As an aside, I always wondered if SmartEye won some bids with lower prices so that they could discuss them more "openly" ? Needless to say that was short-term thinking.

My opinion is that the ONLY ways to get this company properly valued are:
1) list it on Nasdaq and subject it to the SEC's bright light of disclosure
2) sell it

And I really do not like relying on #2 being a major part of any of my holdings' rationale.

I forget, is it 35 per month or about 50? Or is it 35 if we're sharing and 50 if direct? AUD or USD or GBP?