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True but we might have some noise in this quarter's KPIs related to the UAW strikes... not making excuses - just preparing expectations. I'm guessing that after December is over (FY24 1H), they'll talk more about financials than KPIs. Then swap back to focusing on quarterly KPIs with some design wins sprinkled in!?
Banque Lombard Odier & Cie SA (managed funds)
Lombard Odier Asset Management Europe Ltd
Split roughly evenly...
Also, and importantly, 4-star Morningstar fund, Federated Hermes Kaufmann Small Cap Fund, still owns 385M shares.
And Herald Investment Management Ltd owns 196M shares in their Herald Investment Trust PLC
Back in August, Polar Capital Partners and HANSAINVEST were selling chunks... not much institutional selling since, at least none reported (which probably implies sellers are not SEC-registered)...
The AIM 100 has underperformed the Russell 2000 by nearly 1800 basis points, and is bouncing around a 52- week low. Seeing Machines stock has had this as an anchor around its neck all year (all its life)... nonetheless, it's outperformed Cipia and SmartEye over the past year as well as the AIM100. Cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry!
The AIM 100 index is down 16.0% through today...
SEE is down 15.4% over the same time period (in£)...
MBLY up ~13% (in$USD)
Magna down 3.5% (in$CAD)
Aptiv up 1.6% ($USD)
BOSCH up 11% (local currency)
Valeo down 6.8% (in€)
Ford up 12%, GM down 6%, Tesla doubled, and Toyota up 39% (in¥)...
CAT up 11.9% ($)
I think SEE's main failure is the management/company NOT expending much/any effort to improve perception, company association, location of shares, etc. All of these are relatively easy AND inexpensive.
Small Caps remain in the penalty box in part because many of them require financing to fund operations... we know SEE should not be lumped in with this assumption.
Magna deal was huge... as it funded SEE to cash flow positivity. It also SHOULD have put in a floor for the stock price at around 11p.
I think the macro factors couldn't be much worse for SEE (factors out of company's control). Regulations are also factors out of the company's control and these are (hopefully) about to become a gale force wind at the company's back.
I've waited 8 years already... what's another few? Especially if these next few are epic!
Of the 85 million to 90 million cars and trucks manufactured annually, I'd say with high confidence that no fewer than 60 million are going to have DMS mandated within a few years. Exclude China from SEE's TAM because they steal IP and buy cheaply and they may have a minimum of 35 million potential cars/trucks. I wouldn't be at all surprised if SEE GETS HALF OF THIS in terms of market share. 10 bucks per car would be glorious, but let's just say 5. That would be nearly $100 million in revenue. Add to it the growing fleet telematics business. And Aviation + Carerpillar bonus = the company could be realizing $200 million in annual revenue within 5 years!?
Then a reasonable multiple on sales could be 4x? Mobileye trades at multiples of that multiple. They'll probably be in the coveted group of companies growing sales 40%+ with margins 40%+
Seeing Machines is a future unicorn...
Rank Country Cars and Trucks Manufactured (Millions)
1 China 26.5
2 Japan 9.2
3 United States 9.2
4 Germany 5.3
5 India 4.4
6 Mexico 3.9
7 South Korea 3.5
8 Brazil 2.3
9 Russia 1.6
10 Canada 1.5
My understanding is that they only have about 6 +/-2 weeks wroth of "strike pay." After it runs out, the workers essentially will need to choose between keeping the union bosses employed and putting food on their table...
After hearing the union boss talk this morning, a strike seems increasingly likely which probably means the "ramp" or trajectory could be pushed a few months into the future. It also all but guarantees OEMs will be pushing suppliers for lower input costs.
Not a huge negative, but a small one initially... possible silver lining: maybe this gives car makers time to make progress on designing in new technology? Or are they union too?
I use Schwab's global trading desk and they have to go directly through to the Tel Aviv stock exchange (it has really weird hours). Also, Schwab initially had to "approve" the security on the platform which caused me to miss the first moonshot.
CUSIP: M24230100, the ticker in the USA is now CPIAF
I bought Cipia at 46 shekels a couple weeks ago after it had fallen from 100+ and just sold it at 61. Philosophically I think Cipia deserved a market capitalization of more than $12 million USD, but volatility makes me "rent" the stock rather than own it like I do with SEE. I have a hard time justifying "diversification" into SmartEye because of their cut-throat pricing strategy.
Today might be the first time all year where all three were up on the same day...
I'm no Australian tax attorney but in the USA the exercise of stock options starts the clock in terms of long-term capital gains tax treatment. In a sale, if he didn't own the shares outright, and they hypothetically sold in one year, then the gains would be short term in nature (and not receive favorable tax treatment).
I would not at all be surprised if Magna has won some of the designs (yet they don't announce every mirror win) as well as other partners using SEE technology. We just need to wait longer and see them in the KPIs.
If Guardian is ramping to 5k units (core, non-upgrades) a quarter, that is going to be a huge able profitable business.
Collins will integrate tracking in simulators and then going forward, pilots ( and their unions) will be absolutely comfortable with monitoring for safety. That should be a huge and lucrative retrofit opportunity.
While I'm less confident in my most bullish forecasts, I remain extremely confident that SEE shares make it back into the double-digits over the next year or so.
No need to apologize. I am no insider, just was assuming SEE sells for 10 because it cost about 3. I have no idea the accounting of each car or DMS "license." Ballpark Incremental margin 70%+...
Already, I was just implying SmartEye selling for $3 for bragging rights rather than profit.
Regardless, there is plenty enough to go around and this doesn't signal anything with respect to SEE's future potential. So, rather than ramble more and pick the jumping spot, I bought a little more.
I agree. I am frustrated but the last thing I want is for SEE to bid $3/car for a piece of business that will cost $8... and make it up on volume! That is far worse than letting it go to a desperate competitor. My prediction is that there is still a great chance that Japan OEMs follow BMW in the future... SM cleaning up messes and charging what they need to because after all, "you get what you pay for."
Remember, it's more important how much MONEY a new design win brings... if they win "Toyota or Honda" and don't make any money, then the shareholders will be diluted into oblivion. You can't win a piece of business today by charging lots prices hoping to raise the price later - not in this industry at least.
What an absolute debacle. If these clowns make it to profitability, then it likely means that SEE's profitability is an order of magnitude greater. I worry a desperate SmartEye results in irrational price competition. In the auto biz, you almost NEVER get to raise prices after cutting them...
We should all thank Seeing Machines for staying out of China. That's going to ultimately sink SmartEye, IMHO.
I wish we could get above (and hold) 6+... then work on 7. Then skip to 9. Then get Magma its 11. ;)