Seeing Machines' fundamentals and long term potential returns7 Mar 2024 19:19
I've given up all hope for a better past. I wish I had sold my shares back when it was in the double-digits... I only sold a little. Then bought back more than I sold as it continued to drop. No ramping or deramping (whatever that means) from me, at least not on purpose!
I try to avoid this board - but it's a sort of journal. ;) possibly proving that I suffered for a decade before ultimately being rewarded handsomely... besides there are some good folks on it and I look forward to celebrating with you all (eventually).
Anyway, the stock can be explained so simply: 60% of shares are held by no more than 25 or so institutions. Pinnacle and Zeus have sold a little, but every single other II has been holding or buying more.
LOMBARD bought more and now owns over 31%!?
Federated/Hermes still owns 9.14%
VS hasn't sold a share ever and still owns 8.81%
HERRALD bought more recently and now owns 4.7%
Crux Asset Management (Special Situations Fund) is a new shareholder who bought ALL 21 million shares during early 2023.
Individuals include:
Richard Griffiths with 156 million shares
Paul McGlone with 8.45 million shares
Martin with 7.5 million shares
Catherine Hill with 4.8 million shares...
They all trade on the AIM exchange which is down YTD and since the end of 2022. Whereas the Russell2000 is up nearly 20% since the end of 2022 and a little YTD'24.
What's my point? My point is the float of the shares is arguably less than 50%. This severely limits institutions "eligible" to purchase shares. So this company is essentially a misfit company trading on the misfit stock exchange. Paul et el are unable to drum-up interest because all they'll do is upset prospective investors who want to buy the stock and can not logistically accumulate enough to make a difference in their portfolio. So we're left with algorithms and individuals, mostly. What an opportunity for people like you and me!
I have high conviction in the Fundamentals. Fundamentals justify a stock price of at least 2x today... and as revenues ramp (high visibility), this fair value ramps almost as quickly. I'm not selling any of my shares below 15p, or unless/until the company is acquired. The catalyst to get this thing going will likely be actual trailing profits (because stock screens are really "dumb"), or a relisting, or a sale of the company.
Good luck to everyone. You may have time to sell and repurchase, you may not. The stock "only" needs to get to about 14p and then the shareholder return will outperform the SP500 going back to 2006! It has roughly kept pace with the AIM100 over that time frame. I look forward to catching-up with "opportunity costs" and the fundamentals ultimately making this investment my smartest and most lucrative ever.