Member Info for MAJOREM

Of the 85 million to 90 million cars and trucks manufactured annually, I'd say with high confidence that no fewer than 60 million are going to have DMS mandated within a few years. Exclude China from SEE's TAM because they steal IP and buy cheaply and they may have a minimum of 35 million potential cars/trucks. I wouldn't be at all surprised if SEE GETS HALF OF THIS in terms of market share. 10 bucks per car would be glorious, but let's just say 5. That would be nearly $100 million in revenue. Add to it the growing fleet telematics business. And Aviation + Carerpillar bonus = the company could be realizing $200 million in annual revenue within 5 years!?

Then a reasonable multiple on sales could be 4x? Mobileye trades at multiples of that multiple. They'll probably be in the coveted group of companies growing sales 40%+ with margins 40%+

Seeing Machines is a future unicorn...

Rank Country Cars and Trucks Manufactured (Millions)

1 China 26.5

2 Japan 9.2

3 United States 9.2

4 Germany 5.3

5 India 4.4

6 Mexico 3.9

7 South Korea 3.5

8 Brazil 2.3

9 Russia 1.6

10 Canada 1.5

My understanding is that they only have about 6 +/-2 weeks wroth of "strike pay." After it runs out, the workers essentially will need to choose between keeping the union bosses employed and putting food on their table...

After hearing the union boss talk this morning, a strike seems increasingly likely which probably means the "ramp" or trajectory could be pushed a few months into the future. It also all but guarantees OEMs will be pushing suppliers for lower input costs.

Not a huge negative, but a small one initially... possible silver lining: maybe this gives car makers time to make progress on designing in new technology? Or are they union too?

True, weird was the wrong word. Should have said "Different."

I use Schwab's global trading desk and they have to go directly through to the Tel Aviv stock exchange (it has really weird hours). Also, Schwab initially had to "approve" the security on the platform which caused me to miss the first moonshot.

CUSIP: M24230100, the ticker in the USA is now CPIAF

I bought Cipia at 46 shekels a couple weeks ago after it had fallen from 100+ and just sold it at 61. Philosophically I think Cipia deserved a market capitalization of more than $12 million USD, but volatility makes me "rent" the stock rather than own it like I do with SEE. I have a hard time justifying "diversification" into SmartEye because of their cut-throat pricing strategy.

Today might be the first time all year where all three were up on the same day...

I'm no Australian tax attorney but in the USA the exercise of stock options starts the clock in terms of long-term capital gains tax treatment. In a sale, if he didn't own the shares outright, and they hypothetically sold in one year, then the gains would be short term in nature (and not receive favorable tax treatment).

I would not at all be surprised if Magna has won some of the designs (yet they don't announce every mirror win) as well as other partners using SEE technology. We just need to wait longer and see them in the KPIs.

If Guardian is ramping to 5k units (core, non-upgrades) a quarter, that is going to be a huge able profitable business.

Collins will integrate tracking in simulators and then going forward, pilots ( and their unions) will be absolutely comfortable with monitoring for safety. That should be a huge and lucrative retrofit opportunity.

While I'm less confident in my most bullish forecasts, I remain extremely confident that SEE shares make it back into the double-digits over the next year or so.

No need to apologize. I am no insider, just was assuming SEE sells for 10 because it cost about 3. I have no idea the accounting of each car or DMS "license." Ballpark Incremental margin 70%+...

Already, I was just implying SmartEye selling for $3 for bragging rights rather than profit.

Regardless, there is plenty enough to go around and this doesn't signal anything with respect to SEE's future potential. So, rather than ramble more and pick the jumping spot, I bought a little more.

I agree. I am frustrated but the last thing I want is for SEE to bid $3/car for a piece of business that will cost $8... and make it up on volume! That is far worse than letting it go to a desperate competitor. My prediction is that there is still a great chance that Japan OEMs follow BMW in the future... SM cleaning up messes and charging what they need to because after all, "you get what you pay for."

Remember, it's more important how much MONEY a new design win brings... if they win "Toyota or Honda" and don't make any money, then the shareholders will be diluted into oblivion. You can't win a piece of business today by charging lots prices hoping to raise the price later - not in this industry at least.

What an absolute debacle. If these clowns make it to profitability, then it likely means that SEE's profitability is an order of magnitude greater. I worry a desperate SmartEye results in irrational price competition. In the auto biz, you almost NEVER get to raise prices after cutting them...

We should all thank Seeing Machines for staying out of China. That's going to ultimately sink SmartEye, IMHO.

I wish we could get above (and hold) 6+... then work on 7. Then skip to 9. Then get Magma its 11. ;)

Keep in mind 6/30 cash includes the $17 million tranche from Magna but excludes the $3 million from aerospace. It would not be crazy to assume $20 million in inventory is worth $40 million in revenue.

They're trying to be transparent but investor relations is just so poor at this company.

All that said, I believe 11p is still the right target for the near term but they are back to being close on the funding front which will make any stock rally muted.

1,126,578

In the absence of news, and maybe even with some hypothetical RNSs, the stock is hitched to the AIM 100. This is an albatross around its neck. Simply.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/indices/ftse-aim-100-index

I am wondering if Paul's new 2026 targets are higher than the original targets? If so, then his skin is still very much in the game. What were those targets again? Because I would argue that 15p by 2026 (a triple) is pretty darn good especially if there's a global recession in the middle of it all!

I never fully understand whether or not SM is being made obsolete by these patent applications or something potentially positive? Because these rarely/ever have Seeing Machines'name in them.

I think the only thing that could potentially torpedoe our happy ending is Google or Apple (Apple Carplay or Android Auto) doing DMS themselves and well.

I'm trying to get my head around whether or not I believe Paul deserves 1% of the company? I think he has done a very good job during the past couple years including pandemic time... and I suppose he will have to pay for a small portion of this, and pay taxes on gains... it probably is a fair deal.

I just wish that, in return for our approval, they would upgrade investor relations and announce that they are planning to prepare to relist by the end of the next calendar year. Fingers crossed that's one of the vesting clauses!

A takeout would be great but I really want it to be more than 20p so we need to get there first before the offer arrives. Paul knows this.

I have to say it reminded me of ChatGPT ;) Positive nonetheless.

Signing off for a while.

Keep up the good work everyone...

DR777,

That's a fair point. I can envision a few scenarios where my wealth will be materially improved. But investing can be so fun ;)

In full disclosure, I bought my first shares around the time of the first rumors around the Cadillac CT6! So around 2014 when the shares spiked. It then went up a lot on the regulatory tailwind and CAT progress/deal. I didn't sell much but I did trim. I wish Ibhad sold it all then, given what I could have done with it in between then and now. Oh well, I rode it all the way down through Ken's 3 pence buzz-saw. Half the company sold at 3 pence - I still can't believe it, but I did average my cost basis down to make myself less angry. Today, I probably own twice as much as I should. I'm wondering how disciplined I will actually be (I'm human, not a robot) when the stock does regain the double digits. Another poster asked who is selling down here and I would guess investors in that "3p-4p" time frame are trimming/exiting? I will probably trim above 11p. Maybe 10% above 11p, 10% above 15p, and 10% above 20p. That should get more than all of my basis back and the rest can ride until the final chapter!