Member Info for Magoo79

Funding is the main vulnerability. The hope is to go back to the market once positive drills have been communicated to the market..

You'll struggle to find a stronger arbitration case than this. We are going to multibag from here

Not sure why people follows Zak. He does not provide any insight and his chart predictions are quite debatable. I see value only in the interviews (e.g. with Zenith)

Some improvements in the quality of the presentation and interesting information on the exploration spin off.

Hopefully some news on the second tranche of the FN funding soon

You don't want to be out of PAT over the weekend, an RNS could land at any time, even next monday at 7 AM..

Any day now could be SOC day. Keep your golden tickets tight

@fort there is no indication whatsoever that the FN deal is off the table or that we are missing any milestone, quite the opposite. It is just not appropriate to discuss such details with a private investor. Hopefully we'll soon get some clarity on this

I am not going to reply to intellectually challenged people like that almost extinct clumsy furry animal.

The reason we didn't discuss in detail about the FN next tranche is that such information cannot be disclosed outside an RNS. Now I am going to block the lunatic and make myself an old fashioned

It was me talking to Paul earlier. He didn't provide details about his visit to china with Dan but there's nothing sinister in newly appointed chairman and CEO meeting the largest shareholder.

He didn't disclose anything new or confidential but he did a good job in inspiring confidence that hopefully we are about to turn a corner. Here is a summary of the conversation:

- he acknowledges the slow progress of the last couple of years. The company was too focused in finding a buyer more than working on making the assets more palatable. Now a strategy is being drawn up and updates will be provided to the market when they have finalised a more detailed plan regarding finance and Cascabel mining, which is the focal point of their attention

- the route to exploiting cascabel is long and complicated but with the right expertise it can be done. Logistics and block caving are the two main challenges but having G-Mining, the chinese and some new and experienced hires should do the trick

- he reiterated what is mentioned in a recent RNS regarding the other licences. Some deal is needed to get the resources to drill and unlock value of Porvenir and the other porphyr deposits. We'll probably know by this summer what the plan is

- another issue has always been a fragmented share ownership with many private investors and larger investors with diverging interests. My hope is that with a chairman in place, finance/premits secured and a clearer plan, we should be consolidating that base and reduce the gap between market cap and asset value

- i didnt press on the share options or on the next FN tranche but he didn't seem worried about it. Same about permits. I guess those are a matter of getting on with the work needed. We should also have some political stability for the a few years.

In conclusion, the impression I got is that we finally have a very capable and competent chairman who understand what is needed to devise a strategy and execute it

@smoggy the rational approach to value a pure litigation play is to multiply the amount of the award by the probability and then deduct the expenses (e.g. legal costs and tax) and take into account time and opportunity cost. Once the amount is known, before 16/05 in our case, each one of us can determine what the fair value of PAT shares should be based on our expectations regarding the legal process.

At the SOC stage the SP tends to be around 5-10% of the SOC amount but this is just a rule of thumb. If, like me, you are convinced that PAT has a good chance of winning, say 70-80%, then 5% would look like a bargain

Based on my estimate below, it seems like the market is expecting a SoC around $1bn. Expect fireworks if that figure is higher, as I believe it is likely to be

As the SOC lands, the market cap of PAT will likely settle somewhere between 5 and 10% of that amount. This means between 16p and 32p per billion. I would expect a lot of volatility as there will be profit taking, derisking but also a great deal of attention with a flurry of articles and a high number of new investors that will hear for the first time the name Panthera. My assumption is that 5% of the SOC is going to be the absolute floor so we are unlikely to see a SP lower than it is today. Over time the SP is likely to grow, based on how investors percieve the case going. There is also the possibility of a settlement, especially if the GoI has the feeling that they would lose the case. Offering $300M against a, say $1.5bn claim would be a bargain for them and still a good deal for those like us who bought before the SoC. $300M minus fees and costs is still a good 5x from here.

I may top slice some of my holdings near the judgement, when we are likely to be closer to 20% of the SoC, but certainly not in the short term.

good luck all

Spent quite some time doing research on this share and on the arbitration cases and I bought a few. Will add more if it goes lower.

There's great upside based on the risk/reward ratio. Good luck everyone

Yeah, looks like they may finally start to release some positive news, now that they filled their boots with cheap options. Great governance as always. Well done Danny boy & friends

@orthern exactly, another plan. Maybe it is better than the others, but as you say, what have they been doing for the last 6 months, except from preparing another plan with no clear deadlines and funding yet to be unlocked.

Still heavily invested but getting more and more frustrated

Market unimpressed. Not surprised. They keep moving goalposts and all they do is inform us on plans that never materialise. When can we get an update on actual milestones (funding, drilling, JV, permits)?

It would be good to hear from the new boss. What has he been up to? Now that Noboa has been confirmed it would a good time to get some proper updates on operations, permits and funding. Come on, Danny boy

SOC to be released any moment between now and the 16th of May. If, as I believe, the figure is north of $1bn, you won't be able to buy more PAT for less than 15-20p in an instant. Don't let them catch you with your pants down..

As the SP rises, the yield goes down ;)

Topped up again. This will bounce and dividend is not at risk so i am happy to wait

@jersey not sure I trust Robbie at this stage. He is responsible for a major c***-up with the funding and he kept lying to investors regarding the true situation. Have you forgotten the "24k oz/y by year end" and all that nonsense? I feel like a fool for having fallen for his promises. I have written this off but I still hope to recover 10-20% of it if and when this is massively diluted and re-listed