Member Info for Madpunter

Dulwichman - Frontera was stuck between a rock and a hard place, with the GOGC arbitration on one side and SH/O on the other, with both trying to prise away Block 12. Under those circumstances it is entirely possible that ZM and SN might have had to sail close to the wind at times, just to keep FRR in business. Throw in at least half a dozen court cases; difficulties with selling and transporting the oil; a government hostile to US businesses requiring lobbying and sanctions threats; plus demonstrations from unpaid workers; and it is easy to see how board level decisions and strategy might result in conflict. IMHO with all that has happened, it would be more surprising not to have found grounds for litigation between the directors.

ODR - The threat of sanctions didn't stop the GD from foul play in the elections, but the aftermath has resulted in Bidzina Ivanishvili retiring from politics and giving over 90% of his wealth to charity. Plus BI will possibly eventually have to reside in France. IMHO negotiations are taking place behind closed doors that will never see the light of day, but will alter the future political and economic path of Georgia and the Caucasus region.

ODR - IMHO the GG was hamstrung by the opposition's refusal to join parliament, resulting in stalled economic investment and possibly the reason for a NATO membership delay. How can the GD give in to calls for an early election and save face? Create an excuse for the PM to resign (prepare to arrest Nika Melia) and fail to agree on the replacement PM triggering an early election perhaps?

https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/general/the-georgian-election-1D3531D6-391B-42B4-9C9C-C9F8383D0BB8.html?page=4#25849519

IMHO it sounds like just the sort of excuse BP require, to enable the investment to tick the boxes for a move away from Oil and gas towards carbon neutral energy.

BigjohnnyWin - The same people who you previously stated 'told you that there's no Oil + Gas in Block 12?'

If this ever gets made into a film, people will never follow the plots, with so many twists and turns. IMHO it would make a good case study for post graduate business courses and provide lecturer's with a multitude of interpretations and possible alternative scenarios.

Furthermore, would Bidzina Ivanishvili retire from politics and donate over 90% of his wealth to charity, if Zaza (plus a huge lump of dosh if there's a deal with the SM's) can step into the political void?
Whether any of this is proven against Zaza is possibly now immaterial, as the damage to Zaza's political aspiration's (if indeed he had any), may now be complete.

All director's court cases paid for by insurance with a probable cap, including SH's. IMHO the amount available is running down rapidly and it's time for SH/O to accept any deal on the table before it all goes pear shaped.

If Musk takes his profit from Bitcoin which looks overbought, IMHO it could trigger a crash as cryptocurrencies have provided an alternative for some investors worried about the inflated markets?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Sees-Strongest-January-In-30-Years.html

Brent is currently $60.57/bbl

Is This The Start Of A Commodity Price Supercycle?
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-This-The-Start-Of-A-Commodity-Price-Supercycle.html

Jonathan - No, this is Zib's Mr Big. Someone who will probably want to 'be their friend,' if TW et al are extradited on possible racketeering charges and have to spend time in one of Uncle Sam's free B + B's.

Somewhere in one of Uncle Sam's free bed and breakfast establishments, Mr Big Awaits!

IMHO the fact that DA has become a director doesn't signify that FRR will end up with a JV, but allows FRR to negotiate a deal where all options are available. It stops the SM's just getting FRR for a pittance, as it demonstrates that FRR have the expertise to participate in a JV or a full sale of Block 12, but only at the right price. While a JV is the most likely option, in the long run it should provide a bigger pay-out for SH's, as even a 5 - 10% share of the hydrocarbons each year would be huge. Any future share price would then reflect such a dividend and allow opportunities for those who wish to monetise their shares. IMHO BH will develop the field for a share of the production (they haven't been here from the start for nothing), and any other SM's involved will provide money for a special dividend, whether it be for all or a percentage of FRR's share under the PSA.

'Rest assured if anything does have happen in the future we have a log of all client positions and will match the underlying market accordingly, where possible.'

Therefore, all shareholders would get a special dividend (if a deal occurs and a special dividend is paid) even if their shares are no longer held in the nominee accounts due to being lent out and sold, but not replaced before the de-listing. Furthermore, all those who shorted the share will have their positions matched (liabilities) 'where possible.' In other words they will chase up the shorters liabilities, but this may not be possible especially if they have moved internationally, or if they don't have enough assets.
Maybe if the banks lose enough money from the shorters, if and when FRR is successful, then the margins for trading short will increase considerably. IMHO it should only be available to the big corporations and funds who are able to cover what is in effect a blank cheque. As far as the argument for banning the practise, it does provide liquidity to the market, hence the reason for the MM's to be 'able to legally sell a stock it didn't have.'

https://theintercept.com/2016/09/24/naked-shorts-cant-stay-naked-forever/

Also worth a read :-
http://www.counterfeitingstock.com/CounterfeitingStock.html

There's still the possibility of people being extradited to face racketeering charges from the shorting of FRR through insider information. The arbitration news was first placed in the media by TW's rag and the alleged naked shorting by YA is possibly implicated as well. IMHO SH/O and YA may possibly escape justice as part of any deal with FRR, the GG and the SM's, but TW et al don't have any bargaining chips in any prospective deal. Mr Big awaits.

Aurora1 - IMHO a deal is very close and the shorters are now very worried that they will be pursued for money, even though they were allowed to close accounts. IMHO the liability remains if banks and brokers etc have to pay out a special dividend to the SH's, some of whom had shares lent out which couldn't be replaced due to the de-listing. Add the current situation with GamesStop and it could be the start of open season on shorters. TW et al's chickens coming home to roost perhaps?

My post from Monday copied below gives an indication of what we may have :-

Too many unknowns. If the Ukraine interview reserves are right, then we have almost as much potential as BP, but without the wells already flowing and the infrastructure, but very cheap costs of less than $12/bbl. The 19.1MMbbls is worth over a trillion dollars (oil price of $60/bbl, or Brent plus a $5 premium), but it will take decades to produce and cost billions in infrastructure. The top price for a producing field (Block 12 has few wells, but does have international pipelines in place) would be around 5 - 10%, so around $57 - 115bn. However, either 51% or 53.45% (if the 5% RA has reverted to the GOGC) of the hydrocarbons will be the GOGC share. The bottom price should be more than the sunk costs of $500m+, therefore IMHO anywhere between $0.5bn and $57bn (taking into account the GOGC share).

How will no contact by SH's reduce any prospective amount of a deal? If SN and the other BoD members negotiate a deal, why would they negotiate for less because we haven't made contact (SN owns over 9% of the shares in FRR)? I worry about posters who suddenly turn up when it looks like FRR are in the process of negotiations and suggest taking action against FRR. IMHO the one's with the hidden agenda are those who want to take action against FRR.

Too many unknowns. If the Ukraine interview reserves are right, then we have almost as much potential as BP, but without the wells already flowing and the infrastructure, but very cheap costs of less than $12/bbl. The 19.1MMbbls is worth over a trillion dollars (oil price of $60/bbl, or Brent plus a $5 premium), but it will take decades to produce and cost billions in infrastructure. The top price for a producing field (Block 12 has few wells, but does have international pipelines in place) would be around 5 - 10%, so around $57 - 115bn. However, either 51% or 53.45% (if the 5% RA has reverted to the GOGC) of the hydrocarbons will be the GOGC share. The bottom price should be more than the sunk costs of $500m+, therefore IMHO anywhere between $0.5bn and $57bn (taking into account the GOGC share).

Johnathan - Don't you watch the racing? It's 660 feet, 220 yards, 40 rods, 10 chains, 1/8th mile or approximately 201 metres.